Bucknell Post Game -- Efficiency

Opening Night
The Wildcats hosted Coach Wright's alma mater Bucknell last night in their first game of the 2010-11 season. The 'Cats were not gracious hosts, as they defeated the Bison 68-52 at the Pavilion on Villanova's campus. The 'Cats tussled with the Bison for most of the first half, building a double digit lead around the 5:00 minute mark. They maintained that distance (but not much more) going into the half with a 12 point lead, 28-16.

Ah, what a difference a year (or so) makes. The ink media beat virtually the entire Villanova blogosphere to press with Bernard Fernandez's "Fisher's 24 leads Villanova over Bucknell". And in case you forgot it was Philadelphia coverage, the phillynews.com editors headlined the story comment section with the question "Do you think Villanova is overrated?" Care to guess whose school's fan commented first? The University site posted their AP wire story, even as Ed '77 over at VUHoops.com slept. Refreshed this morning, Ed posted his recap, with a theme similar to philly.com's Fernandez -- but an attitude far less negative. Justin over at Nova Basketball Report.com checked in with "Bucknell Thoughts" which, true to the title, was more a thought/reaction piece than a straight-up news report/recap. Chris over at The Nova Blog filed last (well, second to last technically) with his reaction piece. And someone needs to get a memo to Fact on Villanova Sports -- THE SEASON STARTED LAST NIGHT!!!

The official website also posted the boxscore, thank heaven. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	Bucknell
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	32.4	31.9	64.2
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	86.5	125.6	105.9		49.4	113.0	81.0
eFG%	44.0	56.3	50.9		28.0	51.6	41.1
TORate	27.8	9.4	18.7		27.8	9.4	18.7
OR%	33.3	38.9	36.1		11.1	22.2	16.7
FTA/FGA	32.0	18.8	24.6		8.0	19.4	14.3
FTM/FGA	24.0	12.5	17.5		8.0	12.9	10.7
ARate	55.6	60.0	58.3		66.7	84.6	78.9
Blk%	0.0	6.3	3.5		4.0	9.7	7.1
Stl%	6.3	0.0	3.2		9.1	3.0	6.1
PPWS	0.97	1.15	1.07		0.62	1.06	0.87
2FG%	33.3	60.0	46.7		28.6	35.0	32.4
3FG%	40.0	35.3	37.0		18.2	54.5	36.4
FT%	75.0	66.7	71.4		100.0	66.7	75.0
%2FG	35.7	45.0	41.2		50.0	38.9	42.3
%3FG	42.9	45.0	44.1		37.5	50.0	46.2
%FT	21.4	10.0	14.7		12.5	11.1	11.5

Half Time Adjustments
First game (first half?) jitters are probably the reason for the inefficient offense (86.5, or about 0.865 points per possesion) which, according to the table above (see red highlight by 2FG% & TO%), seemed attributable to poor inside shooting and turnovers, but the 12 point lead came from Bucknell's inability to convert possessions to points (or some very good defense from Villanova? Check the defensive blocks and steals). Villanova's poor shot efficiency (44.0) was salvaged by two Corey Stokes three point buckets (and one apiece from Cheek and Fisher), otherwise it would have been lower. The second half offensive explosion was good (complements of much improved shooting from Fisher among others), but the step back on defense, allowing the Bison to convert at a 1.13 rate, was a step back, apparently a let up on the perimeter defense (note how Bucknell's three point conversion rate jumped from 18.2 to 54.5, half-over-half). A more competitive first half could have spelled trouble in the second half. Though Bucknell did cut Villanova's cushion to single digits several times around the halfway mark of the second half, seven was the closest they came, and the 'Cats pushed it out to 10 or better with 6:00 to go and never looked back. The distribution of possessions was interesting, especially in light of questions about how involved the front court will be in the offense. By my count about half of the Villanova blogosphere were upset that the guards tried to force the ball into the paint too much, while the half were upset tha the guards did not get the ball to the front court enough...huh?

Player	%Min	Poss%	Shot%	PPWS	eFG%	OR%
Pena, Antonio	77.5	8.9	9.1	1.00	50.0	7.2
Yarou, Mouphtaou	57.5	23.8	15.3	1.02	40.0	9.7
Wayns, Maalik	85.0	42.6	31.0	0.89	40.0	3.3
Fisher, Corey	90.0	29.3	31.2	1.29	62.5	0.0
Stokes, Corey	90.0	19.9	21.4	1.00	50.0	0.0
Cheek, Dominic	57.5	15.6	15.3	1.10	50.0	19.3
Sutton, Maurice	17.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0
Armwood, Isaiah	25.0	11.2	7.0	2.00	100.0	11.1

The low post anomaly is in part explained when one compares shot and possession numbers for Yarou and Pena. Yarou took a healthy percentage of the available possessions (23.8), but shot poorly and turned the ball over (misdirected entry passes?). Pena by contrast was invisible on the offensive end, though efficient when he got the ball (compare eFG% and turnovers TO% for Pena and Yarou), rebounding excepted. But the possession rate that really jumps out is Wayns'. 41% is off the charts. While as one blogger observed, Wayns turned the ball over a few times, that does not account entirely for his inefficiency. Check out his eFG% (basically a single stat that represents his shot efficiency). Ouch, last night was not his best effort. His assist rate is high (I wonder how many were passes to Fisher and how many of Fisher's assists were to Wayns...), and clearly blunts the negative impact of his turnovers, but he cannot give up one in four of his possessions without a shot night-in and night-out.

			FGA
Player	TO%	Ast%	FTA	DReb%	Blk%	Stl%
Pena, Antonio	0.0	12.0	0.0	21.5	7.6	2.0
Yarou, Mouphtaou	34.2	0.0	40.0	24.2	10.2	0.0
Wayns, Maalik	25.8	39.0	26.7	9.8	0.0	0.0
Fisher, Corey	0.0	22.1	37.5	3.1	0.0	3.5
Stokes, Corey	8.7	11.4	0.0	15.4	0.0	1.7
Cheek, Dominic	0.0	0.0	20.0	9.7	0.0	0.0
Sutton, Maurice	0.0	23.8	0.0	63.5	0.0	0.0
Armwood, Isaiah	55.4	0.0	0.0	22.2	0.0	0.0

Notes & Observations
1. The Wildcats rebounded very well on both sides of the ball, for both halves. On the defensive side five players in particular, Pena, Yarou (expected), Stokes, Sutton and Amrwood all snagged rebounds at a very high rate. Sutton's number is distorted a bit by the relatively small amount of playing time he received. Offensive boards appear to be a strength for Yarou, Cheek and Armwood, though Pena again had a good night under his own basket. Nice to see a guard (Wayns) rebound under the offensive glass as well.
2. The seniors logged the most minutes, as one would expect. The magnitude however was a bit surprising as the Coreys pulled down 90% of the minutes and Tone took next most with 77.5%, large chunks indeed. The degree to which the freshmen Bell and Pinkston represented the "depth" of the squad was not obvious to me until I saw these playing time numbers. From the percentages, it is clear the "low post" rotation is comprised of Yarou (starter) with Sutton and Armwood available. Sutton drew more minutes than Armwood, and I suspect Armwood played more out of the paint (a #4) with either Pena (or Sutton/Yarou) shifting inside of him.
3. The backcourt/wing rotation was (again) pretty obviously the starters -- Fish, Wayns and Stokes -- with Cheek picking up minutes left by those three, plus some from front court players. This is probably the mix the fans will see this season, though I doubt the Coreys will consistently draw that much court time. They would be spent by mid February.

Roster Notes
1. Freshmen James Bell and JayVaughn Pinkston were DNP. Bell continues to rehabilitate from leg fractures, while Pinkston has a disciplinary matter to resolve. Hopefully both will address their problems directly and be back 100% in the near future.

Bucknell Post Game: Home Cookin'

While Villanova did defeat the Bucknell Bison, there was little joy in the Nova Nation today as stories of the snafus with the ticket lottery system mingled with critiques of the player rotation and game effort. The game seemed to follow the track of most until the first rotation of players entered. The anticipated scoring push sputtered. Every modest run was answered with a Bucknell 3 pointer, most often delivered by Bison pg John Griffin (and for those listening via the Bucknell radio, an increasingly annoying "BINGO!!!"). There has been a fair amount of opinion and some good observations about the problems in the first half, but I decided to take a leaf from the blogger over at Hoya Prospectus and break the box score down by halves to determine the effect (statistically and in performance) of the half-time adjustments. Dante Cunningham was benched with his second foul at about the 12:00 minute mark of the first half and the 'Cats responded by keeping Casiem Drummond in with a larger time slice allocated to Grant, Stokes, Pena and Fisher. Dwayne Anderson made a 2 minute appearance as well. Cunningham and Reggie Redding played virtually the entire second half, with less time allocated to Pena, Fisher and Stokes. Breaking down the box score...

Opponent	Bucknell
	First	Second	Total
Pace	32.9	31.2	64.1

	Offense				Defense
	First	Second	Total		First	Second	Total
Rating	82.2	145.8	112.3		106.2	92.6	99.6
eFG%	42.9	55.6	49.1		56.9	59.1	57.8
TORate	30.4	16.9	24.1		30.3	25.5	28.0
OR%	42.1	66.7	54.1		41.2	13.3	28.1
FTRate	21.4	74.1	47.3		6.9	31.8	17.6
FTMRate	10.7	48.1	29.1		6.9	13.6	9.8
ARate	27.3	53.8	41.7		83.3	70.0	77.3
Blk%	0.0	11.1	5.5		0.0	4.5	2.0
Stl%	12.2	3.4	8.0		12.1	9.6	10.9

The offensive and defensive efficiencies (the "Rating" row) showed dramatic improvement after the halftime break. While the offensive rating is especially eye catching, the defensive side features an interesting paradox. Bucknell's field goal efficiency improved, even as their offensive rating (Villanova's defensive rating...) regressed. The Bison continued to lose possessions at a high rate (25.5) and had 4.5% of their shots blocked, but they also lost control of their offensive boards. Bucknell was nearly even with Villanova on offensive boards in the first half (both teams' defensive rebounding percentage was mediocre). But Villanova took control of Bucknell's glass in the second half. The Bison had 2 rebounds under their own glass. Hard to get the put backs if you don't get the rebounds.

Improvements on the offensive side were dramatic and across the board. Among the four factors (see side margin for links to detailed descriptions of possession-based stats and Dean Oliver's four factors on offense and defense) slashing their turnover rate (TORate) by nearly ½ and improving their offensive rebounding percentage (OR%) and effective field goal percentage (eFG%) by 24.6 and 12.7 respectively helped to push their offensive rating to 145+. But tripling their FTRate (fta/fga) was a significant help for putting points on the board. The 'Cats got to the free throw line 20 times in the second half, nearly 3 times for every 4 field goal attempts (27) in the half. They converted 13 of those 20 FTAs. Not quite the margin of the second half turnaround, but clearly a major element. 22.9% of Villanova's points came at the free throw line, a contribution consistent with last year's efforts.

Dante Cunningham played for only 7 minutes in the first half (and all 20 in the second half). While it appears that those additional minutes went to Corey Fisher, Antonio Pena, and Malcolm Grant, the reality is that Drummond and Redding covered those minutes. Fisher and Pena had about 5 minutes each in the first half and less than a minute each in the second half. Grant had 12 minutes in the first half and 7 in the second half. The key is that Drummond and Redding continued to play large minutes in the second half with Cunningham. Minutes that may have gone to Fisher, Grant, Pena and Stokes were devoted to applying the defense necessary to limit/offset the Bison field goal accuracy. Reynolds and Redding played 95% of the available minutes (38 minutes apiece), an unusual move, but understandable given the close score throughout the game and the need for consistent application of the offense and defense. Drummond played a total of 26 minutes (12 and 14 per half...), probably the most minutes he has seen in his career at Villanova.

The latest Pomeroy Offensive Efficiencies and Defensive Efficiencies rank Villanova at #2 and #233 (raw) respectively (scroll down to the Big East Conference members). Offense is not the problem. This defensive ranking is the Wildcat's worst ever.

Preview -- Villanova vs Bucknell

The Wildcats and Bison agreed to postpone their contract game from last season to this season. This is the earliest the teams have scheduled their games with each other so far. And given the Giant Killer reputation the Bison have cultivated over the past 3 - 4 seasons, the advantage may well go to the Bison. Under head coach Pat Flannery Bucknell has (along with Ralph Willard's Holy Cross Crusaders) become a competitive and well respected program in the otherwise decidedly mid-major Patriot League. The Bison earned at-large bids to the NCAAs in the 2005 & 2006 seasons, winning their first round games both years (Syracuse and Kansas were the power conference victims). With the graduation of three time All Patriot League center Chris McNaughton and the mid summer injury to 6-8 senior Darren Mastropaolo (most likely a red shirt this season), the Bison have only the memories of those glory years to guide them...

What Others Say...
... Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a B+, the frontcourt a C+ and the bench/depth a B. The Bison are projected (by Blue Ribbon, Athlon & Lindy's) to finish second to Holy Cross in the Patrior League. "... loses three starters from a team that lost only one conference game all season. The backcourt will be the focal point for the Bison. John Griffin, an all-conference combo guard, leads the way. He can shoot the three and also get to the basket..." -- March Madness All Season Blog.

Why Everyone Believes...
...While the nucleus of the 2004-06 teams have graduated many of the underclassmen have moved into the starter roles. Senior pg John Griffen will have juniors Justin Castleberry and Jason Vegotsky and sophomore Stephan Tyree to play off in the backcourt, while junior backup Josh Linthicum will step into Chris McNaughton's shoes in the frontcourt. He will be joined by sophomore Patrick Behan and freshmen Todd O'Brien, a well regarded 6-11 big man out of New Holland, Pa. "Head Coach Pat Flannery...believes that the Bison have of talent remaining to challenge for another (Patriot) league title..." (Athlon).

So Far...
The 'Cats enter this game sporting a 1-0 record - their most recent effort, the season opener at home against Stony Brook brought a 22 point victory. Bucknell opened with a 55-52 win against Albany (like the Stony Brook Seawolves, a member of American East Conference) and then hit the road for a 14 point win against Towson State, 71-57.

Bucknell By the Numbers...
Over the past 3 years BU has maintained a top #100 rank in the RPI (2005 - #55. 2006 - #38, 2007 - #79). Bucknell is a nearly average pace team this season (69.2 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's Bucknell Scout Page which ranks the Bison #172 out of approx. 312 - the current average for pace is 70.0). Last season, BU's field goal efficiency (eFG) was a very strong 53.5 (#43) while their defense for shots was a good (but not as strong) 48.3, #99. The Bison's 2007 defensive rating 97.6 (adjusted), good for a #106 overall D1 ranking. The key stat/skill was their ability to limit their opponent's offensive rebounding to 25.4% (the Bison had a defensive rebounding percentage of 74/6%), #1 in D1 according to Pomeroy. Brown, McNaughton and Mastropaolo were all recognized Top 500 rebounders in that category. None are available this season.

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
Bucknell's rotation will include Josh Lithicum (6-11), Patrick Behan (6-8) and Todd O'Brien (6-11) and then Coach Flannery has to slide guards over. Lithicum has played 130 minutes in the past two seasons as backup to Chris McNaughton. Behan, who logged 18.6% of the available frontcourt minutes last year as backup to Mastropaolo and Brown will step into the starting job. Flannery has a number of guard/wings (Rob Thomas, 6-3, Jason Vegotsky, 6-2,Stephen Tyree, 6-3, G.W. Boon, 6-4 and Zach Evans, 6-5) in the 6-2 to 6-5 range, who will no doubt draw time in a 3 guard scheme. Someone may have to slide over to cover Behan on occasion, which would make the Bison very small. Villanova will counter with a rotation that most likely will include some combination of Dante Cunningham, Shane Clark, Casiem Drummond, Antonio Pen, and Andrew Ott. Given the Bison are undermanned, Coach Wright may decide to run a large rotation to wear their Bison counterparts down a bit. Junior wingman Dwayne Anderson (6-6) and freshman Corey Stokes (6-5) may see time with the mismatches available.

Backcourt vs backcourt...
The Bison offense will shift even more dramatically to the back court this season as this part of the team has the larger measure of talent and experience going into the season. Coach Flannery will rotate John Griffin (6-0, pg/sg captain), Justin Castleberry (6-1), Jason Vegotsky (6-2), Stephen Tyree (6-3) and Darryl Shazier (6-0) through the back court. Villanova will counter with Scottie Reynolds (sophomore, 6-2), Reggie Redding (sophomore, 6-5), Corey Fisher (freshman, 6-1) and Malcolm Grant (freshman, 6-1).

Final Thoughts...
...the Wildcats may well spend the first 7 minutes of this game thinking they are looking at themselves in the mirror...a smaller, slightly less quick & athletic version of themselves to be sure. Villanova should be able to dominate the front court pretty quickly. Bucknell however has some good outside shooting (Vegotsky & Castleberry both, per Pomeroy's Bucknell Scout Page, had eFGs >50.0 and 3FGM% >= 40.0%), the 'Cats will have to counter with good perimeter defense, not a strong point of their defense last year (or this season to date). If Bucknell's wing players get their shots off (and are accurate) the game could be closer than anticipated (is the outcome in doubt?...not likely, but the 3 point shot has become the equalizer in D1 ball...).

Coach Wright used an 11 man rotation versus Stony Brook, but 3 of those players saw 10 minutes between them. The staff will have to find minutes for Corey Fisher, held out in the opener but is, according to Let's Go Nova expected to play. If Villanova can get the game under control early, the staff may continue to experiment with different lineup combinations in preparation for the Old Spice Classic (and the rest of the season). Possibly Drummond and Pena will see (relatively) more minutes in that case. While getting the far end of the bench some playing time has been traditionally valued by the staff and appears to be a priority in the early season games, expect that if the game remains competitive throughout, the staff will shorten the rotation to the group they anticipate will form the nucleus this season.