Tuesday, September 16, 2008

2007-08 Villanova Inside Out

I used the past two posts to look at 40 of the most "outside" and "inside" Big East players last season. I applied a 35% playing time as a filter. Three Wildcats showed up on those lists -- Corey Stokes, Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena -- but what of the other nine scholarship players? Four Wildcats (Malcolm Grant, Andrew Ott, Cas Drummond and Frank Tchuisi) did not log enough time (< 35.0% of the available playing time...) to be considered with the other Big East players while the other five (Corey Fisher, Dwayne Anderson, Scottie Reynolds, Shane Clark and Reggie Redding) were ranked by both Pomeroy and Pelton.

Corey Stokes64245.920213542-46.0-14.575
M. Grant36726.21187344-24.6-7.9NANA
Corey Fisher74553.229412479-15.3-6.03037
D. Anderson63045.01456643-15.9-3.73735
S. Reynolds113981.3398206190-4.0-1.44646
Shane Clark71350.918056633.91.05859
R. Redding72351.6140366822.94.47479
Andrew Ott161.141225.06.3NANA
Antonio Pena67848.418369649.213.39797
F. Tchuisi130.960466.730.8NANA

I have the players listed in "Outside to Inside" order, ie, Corey Stokes heads the list because his shot selection & frequency of free throw suggest his is the greatest tendency to play on the wing/back court. The lower in the list the greater the tendency to play on the inside. Note that Andrew Ott and Malcolm Grant transferred out of the program, to Penn State and Miami (Fla) respectively. Ott will be eligible to play at the end of the fall 2008 semester, while Grant will be eligible to play in the 2009-10 season.

Notes & Observations...
1. The Pelton/Pomeroy rankings for the Villanova players are relatively close, unlike Byron Joynes (see the inside players post), with Scottie Reynolds and Antonio Pena hitting dead-on in both lists. The greatest disparity is Corey Fisher, who is listed seven positions apart in the two lists.
2. That the players always rated as outside (a value <0) or inside (a value > 0) is hardly surprising as both formulas subtract 3 point attempts (3FGAs) from free throw attempts (FTAs). In addition to suggesting where the player takes his field goal attempts, the operation also implies something about the amount of contact the player takes as part of his game. The assumption (true for the most part) is that the more the player "works" inside the paint the more frequent the contact (and subsequent free throw attempts). In Villanova's case there are few surprises; the guards & wings tend to have negative values while power/big forwards and centers tend to have positive numbers. Clark's rating of 1.0 is pretty consistent with his role as an inside players who switches between the #3 and #4 depending on who else is on the court too. Reggie Redding's reluctance to shoot 3s (he took about 25% of his FGAs as 3s) stands in stark contrast to back court mates Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes and Malcolm Grant who took between 42% (Fisher) and 67% (Stokes) of their FGAs as 3s. While Reggie took very few shots from the outside, his reputation as an overall reluctant shooter was sealed last season as his FGAs declined from November to March, from 5.4 in OOC games to 3.6 in Big East play, down to 1.4 in the postseason.
3. Scottie Reynolds (-1.4 on the Pelton Scale) and Shane Clark (1.0 on the Pelton Scale) are the players operating closest to neutral, showing the smallest bias to play either inside (Clark) or outside (Reynolds). Given that each had a 3 point jumper in his offensive repertoire (), disabuses any notions of either being a reluctant shooter. Clark was less involved in the offense than I anticipated during the preseason however. I believed he would assume a "regular/sharter" type role, taking about 20% or so of the available shots when he was playing. And he did during the OOC part of the schedule. But he seemed to again be slowed by a physical condition once the Big East season was under way. The timing was unfortunate as Drummond was sidelined with a foot injury.

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