Saturday, September 13, 2008

2007-08 Outside According to Pelton & Pomeroy

I wrote several posts in August of 2007 that identified Big East players as "inside" or "outside" players based on the difference between the number of their free throw attempts and their 3 point attempts, divided by (based on whether you value Kevin Pelton's or Ken Pomeroy's approach) their minutes played or the total of their field goal attempts. I looked at both inside and outside players in turn using the formulas developed by Ken Pomeroy, a stats guru who writes exclusively about college (D1) basketball and Kevin Pelton, a statistician who writes about pro (primarily the NBA) and international basketball. Ironically both analysts began writing (non collaboratively) for a startup website, The Basketball Prospectus last October.

This time I decided to look at outside, then inside players, juxtaposing Pomeroy's (values under the KPom column) and Pelton's (under the Pelton column below) calculation for easier comparison. The Big East's 20 highest rated "Outside" players, according to Pelton's formula (the more negative the number the greater the tendency to play wing and shoot 3s, the higher the rank), are listed below. I ranked only players who logged 35% or more of the playing available in their position.
Dan FitzgeraldMU42843.91028713-72.5-17.3
Jeremy HazellSHU87467.033123493-42.6-16.1
Larry WrightJohns54745.420513244-42.9-16.1
Jeff XavierPC98178.232720956-46.8-15.6
David CubillanMU59861.315811623-58.9-15.6
Kyle McAlarneyNDU117888.938324568-46.2-15.0
Corey StokesVU64245.920213542-46.0-14.5
Alex RuoffWVU117978.635323992-41.6-12.5
Brian McKenziePC87870.027313837-37.0-11.5
Andre McGeeVille73265.118413249-45.1-11.3
Jamar NutterSHU94572.429217770-36.6-11.3
Deonta VaughnNati106982.9408244128-28.4-10.9
Jon WallaceGTU98571.925115958-40.2-10.3
Donte GreeneSU125389.2521261133-24.6-10.2
Dwain WilliamsPC65652.319011851-35.3-10.2
Jesse SappGTU91166.525615158-36.3-10.2
Ronald RamonPitt117478.826018062-45.4-10.1
Ryan AyersNDU80360.617911640-42.5-9.5
Jeron GriffinRU78062.424812249-29.4-9.4
Dar TuckerDPU68556.832915692-19.5-9.3

Seniors and players who have run through their eligibility are highlighted in yellow, transfers in olive green and Donte Greene (freshman to NBA draft) in blue. Thirteen of the 20 players are slated (as of early September) to return to play in 2008-09. Andy Rautins, a Syracuse wing guard ranked 1st using both formulas in the 2006-07 season and sidelined by an ACL injury last season, will return to the Orange for 2008-09. Rautins should provide an outside dimension Coach Boeheim's team lacked last season. Those familiar with my posts in 2007 August, or who have followed Big East basketball over the past two seasons will no doubt recognize Dan Fitzgerald (Marquette), David Cubillian (Marquette), Brian McKenzie (Providence), Jamar Nutter (Seton Hall), Deonta Vaughn (Cincinnati) and Ron Ramon (Pittsburgh), all repeated appearances on either or both of Pelton's and Pomeroy's Top 10 Outside list from 2006-07 to appear on the 2007-08 list.

Observations & Notes...
1. Larry Wright, who ranked 2nd on this list is the second Johnnies "Outside" player to transfer in the past two off seasons. Avery Patterson who ranked second on Pelton's list from the 2006-07 season transferred during the summer of 2007.
2. Pomeroy and Pelton calculations tend to find the same Outside players. Pelton's 7 highest ranked Big East players are also ranked among Pomeroy's first 10. Pelton and Pomeroy "agree" on eight of their first 10.
3. Kyle McAlarney of Notre Dame ranked at #6 (#4 by Pomeroy) is no surprise; Ryan Ayers, a small forward for the Irish ranked at #18 (#10 by Pomeroy) is. I always thought Ayers' shot selection was a bit more balanced.
4. Brian McKenzie (Providence) ranked in their top 10 by both Pelton and Pomeroy, Deonta Vaughn (Cincinnati) and David Cubillian (Marquette) have been ranked in two successive seasons. They will be juniors next season.
5. Villanova's own Corey Stokes was ranked #7 by Pelton and #5 by Pomeroy.

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