Preview -- LSU Tigers

The Wildcats and Tigers last met in 1990 Tip Off Classic, played at the Basketball Hall of Fame in Springfield Mass. The 93-90 win by the Rollie Massimino-led Wildcats extracted a very small measure of revenge for the loss that eliminated the 'Cats from the NCAA the previous spring. That Dale Brown-coached squad of Tigers inflicted the only first round loss during the Massimino Era. This will be the overcard match for the Philadelphia edition of the Big East-SEC Challenge. The game will pit two teams that have fixtures in the NCAA field for the past 3 to 4 seasons. Louisiana State made it to the Final Four in 2005-06. Their 4 game series dates back to 1952 when LSU beat a visiting Villanova team in New Orleans 100-94. The series is knotted at 2-2....

What Others Say...
... Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a C+, the frontcourt a B and the bench/depth a C. .

..the Tigers barely finished over .500 and spent March watching tv, reminiscing about one year earlier when they were in the Final Four. Where do they go from here? It is hard to tell, but Coach John Brady has some talent around that can put an end to the rumblings of his ineffective leadership...
- Joel Welser, 2007-08 LAU Basketball Proview, 9/15/07

The Storming the Floor Blog predicted a #4 in the SEC West division, #9 overall finish for the Tigers, while Blue Ribbon Yearbook projected LSU as #6 in the SEC West.

Why Everyone Believes...
...LSU brings in a terrific class this season. Looking for frontcourt replacements for Baby Davis, the Tiger staff landed 6-11 220 bf/c Anthony Randolph to go with Garrett Green a 6-10 220 forward and freshman point guard Bo Spenser, a 6-1 180lb point guard. Marquette transfer Dameon Mason, a 6-5, 190lb guard/forward will use his last year of eligibility with the Tigers.

So Far...
The Tigers journey North with a 5-2 record. Their wins come compliments of SE Louisiana State (Southland, 3-1, RPI #206), McNeese State (Southland, 2-3, RPI #153), Chaminade (DII), Nicholls State (Southland, 1-6, RPI #200) and cross-town rival Southern University (SWAC, 1-4, RPI #224). The 'Cats and Tigers share no opponents this season.

LSU By the Numbers...
...Over the past 5 years Tigers' have boasted a Top 50 RPI, reaching a high of #7 and dipping to #89 (last season). This season LSU's is ranked #206. LSU is a higher than average pace team this season (73.8 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's LSU Scout Page which ranks the Tigers #45 out of approx. 341 - the current average for pace is around 69.0).

LSU's 4 Factors
FTM
LSU on...	eFG%	Rnk	TO%	Rnk	OR%	Rnk	FGA	Rnk
Offense	56.7	27	24.7	261	33.9	168	26.0	135
Defense	44.8	63	21.5	197	32.0	133	29.0	80

LSU's field goal efficiency (eFG) is in the top 10% in D1 at 56.7 (#27) their turnover, rate at 24.7 (#261)is, especially considering the level of competition, suspect. Lack of a legitimate point guard has been an ongoing problem for the Tigers, and the high turnover rate suggests they may be vulnerable to a good press. Given the size of their front line, their OR%, on both offense (33.9, #168) and defense (32.0, #133) is disappointingly low. for shots is a bit suspect (50.7, #191). Both factors are crucial for Villanova, because they are areas of strength for Villanova.

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
...The Tigers lost forward Tasmin Mitchell to a broken ankle for a minimum of 6-8 weeks (or possibly the season). In addition to the freshmen Anthony Randolph and Garrett Green, Coach Brady has Chris Johnson (center, junior, 6-11 190lb), Quinton Johnson (forward, junior, 6-8 220lb) and transfer Dameon Mason. Freshman Anthony Randolph and junior Chris Johnson have logged the largest block of time in the frontcout so far. Randolph's 25.7 Shot% suggests he is becoming one of the Tiger's early options on offense. With an dFG% of 61.6 and PPWS of 1.26 further indicates he is able to convert possessions into points efficiently. Johnson's Shot% and PPWS (68.6 & 1.45 respectively) suggest he is able to take advantage of the attention paid to Randolph. Coach Wright will split frontcourt minutes among two year starter Dante Cunningham, last season's sixth man Shane Clark and sophomore Casiem Drummond, who gathered 17 rebounds in Villanova's last outing. Whether the staff starts all three will depend on Clark's condition (he pulled a quad in the loss to NCSU and played only 16 minutes) and whether the staff may want to start 3 guards. Their Shot% numbers announce a frontcourt offensive presence is back at Villanova as all three have Shot% in the 20.0-23.0 range. And their scoring remains by and large efficient (see "Player Stats for the First Five Games" for Villanova's possession-based stats). Corey Stokes and Antonia Pena, both of whom saw double digit minutes against Penn, should see minutes against LSU as well.

Backcourt vs backcourt...
...Coach Brady has looked to 5 players, Garrett Temple (junior, 6-5, 176lbs), Bo Spenser (freshman, 6-1, 180lbs), Terry Martin (junior, 6-6, 203lbs), Alex Ferrer (sophomore, 6-5, 205lbs) and Greg Terrebonne (sophomore, 6-0, 200lbs), to staff the 2 backcourt positions. Temple, Martin and Spencer have split over 90% of the available minutes, leaving blow time PT for Terrebonne and Ferrer. The point guard position has been an ongoing are of concern for Coach Brady who turned to Garrett Temple last season and appears to be breaking in freshman Bo Spencer this season. Temple (Shot% - 14.6) and Spencer (Shot% - 8.5) are not major offensive options, but are efficient when they take their shots (eFG% 57.4 & 70.0 respectively). Those two need to set up LSU's frontcourt options, and both (along with the now-injured Mitchell) have the team's highest assist rates (Temple - 15.3; Spencer - 16.8) on the team. But neither is functioning at Top 500-level. Coach Wright will counter with Scottie Reynolds, Reggie Redding, Corey Fisher and Malcolm Grant. Reynolds & Redding have started every game so far and there is no reason to think that will change. Whether Fisher or Grant also start may be a function of how healthy Shane Clark is right now. Clark's health aside however, both will see playing time.

Final Thoughts...
...This game is another test for the Villanova's perimeter defense and frontcourt. Guard Marcus Thornton takes nearly 50% of his FGAs from beyond the 3 point line. He may not be hitting at an especially high rate (20-52, 0.385), but the 'Cats 3 point defense has made quite a few guards, from UCF's Mike O'Donnell, to GMU's Dre Smith, to NCSU's Courtney Fells, to Penn's freshman guard Tyler Bernardini look like world beating sharpshooters. So far the 'Cats have been able to compensate by forcing turnovers and grabbing offensive rebounds, both of which have tilted the number of shots (FGAs) fairly strongly in their favor. The same may well happen here as LSU has shown they are vulnerable to turnovers (see TO% on "Offense" above) turnovers and despite the size advantage in their frontcourt, players not especially strong at rebounding. Freshman Anthony Randolph and junior center Chris Johnson provide the Tigers with frontcourt scoring that balances well with their backcourt. Villanova did struggle when faced with similar balance in NCSU. This should be a good test for Cunningham, Drummond, Pena (who had a good game versus Penn) and anyone else the staff plays in the frontcourt.

Coach Wright employed a 12 man rotation for the Penn game, giving 8 of them double digit minutes, even while giving a recuperative rest to Shane Clark. When the games have been close (UCF, GMU, NCSU for example), the staff has employed a smaller rotation (usually 8 or 9, 8 of whom play double digit minutes) consisting of a nucleus of Clark, Cunningham, Drummond, Fisher, Grant, Redding, Reynolds and Stokes. Clark may sit another game, particularly if the staff feels confident the 'Cats can handle LSU without him. The Tiger's, with a relatively young starting lineup and inexperienced point guard (freshman Bo Spencer), have struggled outside the confines of the Maravich Center, going 1-2 in Maui Invitational.