The Wildcats and Patriots meet in the second round of the Old Spice Classic. Each won their first round games. Villanova took a 76-68 decision over the Golden Knights of Central Florida, while George Mason beat Kansas State 87 - 77. This is the third meeting for the two teams, Villanova holding a 2-0 edge in the series. They last played in the 1998-99 season opener (for both) at the Pavilion. Nova won by 10 in Jim Larranaga's second season. Each has more experience with the other's conference-mates. Villanova lost to Drexel, a Colonial Athletic Association mate of George Mason's early last season. And GMU bounced Connecticut from the 2006 Elite Eight in a 2 overtime victory that continues to thrill the media (even as it mystifies & infuriates UConn fans). The Giant Killer reputation (and graduations/eligibility exhaustion) did not serve the Patriots well last season as they dropped to 18-15 (9-9 in the CAA) last season. Coach Larranaga brings an upper classmen-led team (4 seniors and a junior should start) to the Old Spice Classic. And they should compete with the best in the CAA this season...
What Others Say...
...Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a A-, the frontcourt a A- and the bench/depth a B. Storming the Court Blog piced George Mason to win the Colonial Athletic Association Conference and return to the Dance this season. Part of the conference preview included this description of GMU:
...remembers the Final Four run, but they forget that two sophomores--Folarin Cambell and Will Thomas--starred on that team. Those two are still there, now seniors, and leading a talented and experienced of mostly juniors and seniors. The Patriots return four of five starters from last year's CAA tournament fianlist. If they can get consistent shooting they are very, very dangerous...
-- CAA Conference Preview, Storming the Court Blog, 10/19/2007
Why Everyone Believes...
...Larranaga returns a squad whose starting lineup is consists of upperclassmen (and occasionally a freshman). Seniors Will Thomas and Folarin Campbell were contributors on the Final Four squad of 2005-06 and will lead the group this season. Other starters have been drawn from a pool of Andre Smith (junior, 6-0, 185lb), Jordan Carter (senior, 6-0, 175lb), John Vaughan (junior, 6-3, 185lb) and Vlad Moldoveanu (freshman, 6-10, 206lb). The rotation goes deeper, as junior Chris Fleming (6-7, 240) and sophomore Louis Birdsong (6-6, 235) have always found a few minutes in each game. Freshman Cam Long (6-4, 177) has also seen the court.
So Far...
...Patriots have wins over Vermont (American East, 1-3, RPI #121), Cleveland State (Horizon, 3-2, RPI #69) and Dayton (A10, 1-1, RPI #31).The 'Cats and Pats have shared no opponents this year, though Drexel, Towson, William and Mary are among the CAA schools Villanova has faced in the past few seasons.
George Mason By the Numbers...
...Over the past 5 years GMU's RPI has roamed between 15 (2005-06) and #153 (2004-05). It has a high-low pattern, resembling a jagged tooth edge of a saw, that has reflected the maturity of the squad. Last year their rank was #124. Expect it to finish (much?) higher this season. George Mason is a an averaged pace team this season (69.5 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's George Mason Scout Page which ranks the Patriots #160 out of approx. 336 - the current average for pace is 69.7). George Mason's offensive efficiency, going into their Old Spice Classic first round game with Kansas State, is a somewhat flat 93.1 (#231). Given the relatively low level of competition, Pomeroy has regressed that rating down to 81.1 (#309). I am not a big fan of adjusting the numbers this early in the season (2 - 5 games for most teams), depressing the offensive rating certainly suggests the Patriots have some problems on that side of the ball. The biggest problem is shooting. GMU's eFG% is 38.9 (#319); the culprit is their 3 point shooting (18.2%, #331). While the balance of the Patriot's offensive four factors (turnover pct., offensive rebounding and free throw rate) are slightly above average (their free throw rate is actually a strong 35.2 -- the Patriots get to the line once for every 3 FGAs), they are not, by themselves, enough to overcome the shooting slump GMU was in going into the tournament. The Patriots developed a hot hand in the Kansas State game, especially from the 3 point arc where they went 8-17 (47.1%). Points via those long range shots came from Vaughan and Campbell who collectively went 5-10 from beyond the arc. Their defense (at least so far) is providing the stopgap on opponents while the offense searches for answers. Their raw defensive rating, 69.5 is stifling. It is unrealistic to assume they can maintain that level all season long. The Patriots have controlled the defensive boards (22.9, #16) and by not fouling, allowed their opponents opportunities to score via the free throw attempt. Their defense for shots is a bit suspect (50.7, #191).
Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
...The Patriots will most likely start Will Thomas and Folarin Campbell. Campbell, at 6-4 may seem a bit undersized, so Larranaga will, against larger teams (like Kansas State for example) move Campbell out to the wing and start freshman Vlad Moldoveanu. He has started Moldoveanu against Dayton and K State, and may do so against Villanova. Subs Louis Birdsong and Chris Fleming have had consistent (though small allocations of) minutes through the Kansas State game. Thomas has been the most reliable offensive option for the Patriots so far. With a PPWS of 1.31 he warrants the full attention of Villanova's best front cort defender (Cunningham?). Villanova will start Dante Cunningham and Shane Clark. Coach Wright may also start Casiem Drummond to give the team a "traditional" look. Antonio Pena and Corey Stokes will most likely have some playing time as well. A blowout game (or severe foul trouble) may well bring Dwayne Anderson into take up minutes.
Backcourt vs backcourt...
...Jordan Carter and John Vaughan will start. If Coach Larranaga wants a smaller look, he may (to start) sit Moldoveanu and start 6-0 Dre Smith to give the Patriots a 3 guard lineup. Villanova has started Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding in all 4 games this year. Given Redding's performance in the UCF game it is a certainty he will start again. Coach Wright will also look for minutes for Malcolm Grant and Corey Fisher. Fisher in particular had a very good game against Central Florida, so the staff may come to rely a bit more on him going forward.
Final Thoughts...
...If both teams revert to form, the game will offer an interesting matchup of defense and offense. Villanova's weak defense versus George Mason's slumping offense. And Villanova's strong offense versus George Mason's strong defense. GMU's offense has worked in fits and starts, while the Wildcats' defense has been uncharacteristically porous. GMU did have a very nice offensive effort against Kansas State, but that may be deceptive. KS Wildcats seems to be less than the sum of their parts. Villanova by contrast, continued to struggle against the player, most likely a wing or guard, who has the hot hand. With Central Florida, that player was Mike O'Donnell. With GMU it could be John Vaughen (took 29% of the available shots when he was on the court versus KState...), Jordan Carter or Campbell. Thankfully GMU's hottest offensive player, Will Thomas, does not shoot 3s. Villanova has partially masked it's shot defense problems by forcing more turnovers and being extremely proficient at grabbing rebounds. Given that GMU has a senior backcourt, the odds of rattling their confidence would seem slight. As for rebounding, Villanova will have some big bodies to throw at the boards (Cassiem Drummond, for example). Thomas and Campbell offer a more mobile option for the Patriot offense. If Moldaoveanu is sitting, Larranaga has decided to go small.
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