Villanova Ranked #13 All Time

Credit the bloggers over at the VUhoops.com blog for finding Mike Miller's piece about Villanova. Mike blogs over at Beyond the Arc, and at the end of last season decided to take up the task of identifying (and ranking) the 25 or so best basketball programs in Division 1. He, like many others, was not especially happy with the job Smith and Street did back in 2005, and so, working with a large list of candidates, a loose set if criteria and a good sense of program traditions, began to winnow the list and rank the teams. Working his way from 25 down to 1 he has released on every Tuesday this off season, the next team on his list. He is almost half way there, and this week was Villanova's turn.

His post on Villanova, "THE GREATEST PROGRAMS: NO. 13, VILLANOVA", is a terrific blend of the quantitative reasons (#10 most wins in the NCAA, #2 most wins in the NIT, a .634 winning percentage all time, nearly 1,5000 wins all time, etc.) and the historical. Villanova is only one of 2 D1 programs to have a team play in the tournament in every decade since it began -- the Wildcat having won the first NCAA Tournament game ever played. The 1985 Championship Game continues to be cited as one of the best all-time. Miller has done justice to each program he has identified so far. His writing shows his joy at watching the games and the respect he has for all of the programs. Teams #14 through #25 are listed at the bottom of the Villanova piece. Each is worth reading. Even you don't agree with his choice, he does an excellent job explains his reasons for their rank.

U18 USA Men Lead Bahamas 59-11...

...at the end of the second period. The tournament is being played by quarters (4 of them), with a half-time at the end of the second quarter. I have the box score from the Venezuela game, when I get a few minutes I will break it down a bit and see how the team performed "by possession". The fact that they shot 1-16 from the 3 point line, despite winning by 9, is a little disturbing.

More information to post now that it is available.

Jumping out to a 29-5 lead in the first quarter, Team USA pushed it out to 59-11 at the half. And continued to outscore the Bahamians in each of the last 2 quarters to win 115-51. The Americans recovered their 3 point shooting somewhat, going 6-20 from beyond the arc against the Bahamas, a definite improvement over their 1-16 effort against Venezuela.

Future Villanovan Maalik Wayns scored 10 points in 3-5 (2-3,1-2), 2-2 shooting. Maalik played 17 minutes, dishing out 3 assists versus 6 turnovers (ouch!) with 2 steals. Dominic Cheek of St. Anthony's (NJ) [note: my bad, apologies to the Friars] played 16 minutes scoring 6 points on 3-7 (0-3, 3-4) 0-0 shooting. Dom had 3 rebounds, 2 steals and 2 assists versus 3 turnovers. The complete box score from FIBA is available. I will link to any stories as they are posted.

The 3 Point Line, Luke Winn and the Big East, Pt 1

Among the MSM's Gang of 500 Luke Winn continues to impress me as the most numerically sophisticated analyst. He does not always get it right statistcally, and he only occasionally pens pieces with a statistical focus. But those occasional pieces are always well thought out and definitely worth reading. His latest effort, a June 16, 2008 article, "How the new three-point line will affect the game", speculates on how the new distance of the 3 point line will affect the 2009 (and beyond?) NCAA tournament. His points are worth listing:

1. Mid-majors Will be Hit the Hardest -- they tend to rely more on the 3 point shot as a equalizer against the (BCS?) high-majors who have larger, more athletic front court players. In a 1 - 2 possession game this can be crucial.
2. The Two Main National Title Contenders are Insulated -- next year's early favorites, North Carolina and Connecticut (Winn is among those who have annoited the Huskies a preseason favorite)have offenses that rely very little on the 3 poing field goal for scoring.
3. There's Now More Space For Low-Percentage Two-Point Attempts -- and Defenses That Force the Most of These Will Thrive -- this one applies directly to both the regular and post season.
4. Marginal Shooters Won't Command Much Respect -- Winn referred to teams, but this could just as well apply to individual shooters.

While several of Winn's postulates seem rather narrow, he provided insight for a broader application of the theory. How can they be applied to the Big East regular season games for the 2008-09 season? What do they suggest about each team's prospects? I decided to pull together some numbers from last season (conference games only) and see. I will apply points 1 & 2 to the Big East today, and points 3 & 4 tomorrow...

Mid-majors Will be Hit the Hardest
Doesn't appear to apply to the Big East at all, does it? Consider the underlying point though -- Perimeter Oriented Teams (POTs -- complements of the Big Ten Wonk) are most clearly impacted by the rule. And POTs that play in close games may be most affected. Now that's something we can work with. Which teams take the most 3 point shots, and which (more to Winn's point...) which have the higher distribution of points from the 3 point line (and therefore, rely more on hitting that shot)? The table below identifies the only Big East member of the POT...

	Pct. FGAs		Pt. Distribution
Team	2FGA	3FGA	2FGM	3FGM	FTM
Georgetown	59.53	40.47	47.82	31.31	20.87
Louisville	63.60	36.40	51.42	28.89	19.68
Villanova	63.60	36.40	49.32	27.95	22.73
Providence	63.96	36.04	50.43	32.25	17.31
Seton Hall	64.17	35.83	46.99	31.30	21.72
DePaul	65.16	34.84	51.43	31.90	16.67
West Virginia	65.26	34.74	50.63	27.62	21.75
Marquette	65.74	34.26	49.62	30.00	20.38
Cincinnati	66.14	33.86	52.92	28.98	18.10
Notre Dame	66.70	33.30	48.83	31.28	19.89
Rutgers	67.52	32.48	51.82	30.59	17.59
Pittsburgh	69.60	30.40	56.47	25.79	17.74
South Florida	69.71	30.29	56.21	22.49	21.30
St. John's	70.47	29.53	53.11	26.27	20.62
Syracuse	73.32	26.68	58.52	18.78	22.70
Connecticut	75.06	24.94	54.37	18.78	26.84

The Princeton Offense was developed at a mid-major college (and garnered it's largest following among members in mid/low major conferences) to, among other things, minimize the impact of athletic (and space eating) paint players and run-n-gun teams. I doubt that moving the line back a foot will change the offensive sets much for John Thompson's team next season, especially since they have lost so many front court players to graduation, the draft and transfer. The Hoyas also lost their most prolific three point shooter when Jon Wallace also graduated in May. Of the next four "near POT" colleges, Louisville and Villanova saw their ratio of 3s to 2s drop last season. For Villanova the explanation is most likely the change in personnel -- Mike Nardi and Curt Sumpter graduated, providing playing opportunities to less prolific (3 point) shooters Corey Fisher, Antonio Pena and Casiem Drummond. Seton Hall and Providence saw their 3FGAs rise, in Providence's case due most likely to Herbert Hill's graduation. As for who relied most on 3FGMs for their points...

	Pct. FGAs		Pt. Distribution
Team	2FGA	3FGA	2FGM	3FGM	FTM
Providence	63.96	36.04	50.43	32.25	17.31
DePaul	65.16	34.84	51.43	31.90	16.67
Georgetown	59.53	40.47	47.82	31.31	20.87
Seton Hall	64.17	35.83	46.99	31.30	21.72
Notre Dame	66.70	33.30	48.83	31.28	19.89
Rutgers	67.52	32.48	51.82	30.59	17.59
Marquette	65.74	34.26	49.62	30.00	20.38
Cincinnati	66.14	33.86	52.92	28.98	18.10
Louisville	63.60	36.40	51.42	28.89	19.68
Villanova	63.60	36.40	49.32	27.95	22.73
West Virginia	65.26	34.74	50.63	27.62	21.75
St. John's	70.47	29.53	53.11	26.27	20.62
Pittsburgh	69.60	30.40	56.47	25.79	17.74
South Florida	69.71	30.29	56.21	22.49	21.30
Connecticut	75.06	24.94	54.37	18.78	26.84
Syracuse	73.32	26.68	58.52	18.78	22.70

And up pops Providence. If the Friars did not shoot the highest ratio of 3s to 2s, they did rely more on the 3FGM as part of their scoring mix. Too low to make Winn's Top 10 list (see first chart in his article), the Friars missed the cut by less than 1%, and they hired the guy who coached #4 on Winn's list, Drake's Keno Davis, to replace the fired Tim Welsh. With several minor adjustments (role playing guard Dwain Williams transfered and Charlie Burch graduated, redshirt pg Sharaud Curry returns), the Friars roster looks much like it did last season. Curry, Efejuku, McKenzie and Xavier will take that 3 if Davis gives them the green light. Which teams, if any of the POT/near POT teams, will likely be affected by close games? I pulled the records of all Big East teams for games decided by 2 or fewer possesions (5 points) and sorted them by percentage of close Big East games played.

				Pct.
Team	W	L	Pct.	Games
Cincinnati	5	3	0.625	0.444
Connecticut	5	2	0.714	0.438
Seton Hall	3	4	0.429	0.389
Georgetown	6	0	1.000	0.333
Louisville	2	3	0.400	0.313
Rutgers	1	4	0.200	0.313
De Paul	2	3	0.400	0.278
Pittsburgh	2	3	0.400	0.278
Villanova	3	2	0.600	0.278
Syracuse	1	3	0.250	0.222
South Florida	1	3	0.250	0.222
Marquette	1	2	0.333	0.167
Notre Dame	2	1	0.667	0.167
Providence	1	2	0.333	0.167
St. John's	2	0	1.000	0.111
West Virginia	0	2	0.000	0.111

The list may be topped by front court powers Cincinnati and Connecticut, but Georgetown and Seton Hall show up yet again, this time with at least 1/3 games decided by close margins. The Hoyas (6-0) may have benefitted from having a relatively more experienced team (ranked #134 nationally by Ken Pomeroy), something Coach Thompson will not have going into this season. Seton Hall struggled (3-4) in close games, and given the distance of the line, combined with a reliance on 3 point shooting, may find themselves no more successful next season than last.

The Two Main National Title Contenders are Insulated
Connecticut aside, who else in the conference passes on the 3 to find the guy in the low post? The table below is the same table I used twice above. This time I have sorted by reliance on 2FGM. Surprised that Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati top the list? I'm not, and it does not necessarily mean that those teams will be unaffected by the line change (more later), but Connecticut and South Florida (remember Kentrell Gransberry?) are high on the list...

	Pct. FGAs		Pt. Distribution
Team	2FGA	3FGA	2FGM	3FGM	FTM
Syracuse	73.32	26.68	58.52	18.78	22.70
Pittsburgh	69.60	30.40	56.47	25.79	17.74
South Florida	69.71	30.29	56.21	22.49	21.30
Connecticut	75.06	24.94	54.37	18.78	26.84
St. John's	70.47	29.53	53.11	26.27	20.62
Cincinnati	66.14	33.86	52.92	28.98	18.10
Rutgers	67.52	32.48	51.82	30.59	17.59
DePaul	65.16	34.84	51.43	31.90	16.67
Louisville	63.60	36.40	51.42	28.89	19.68
West Virginia	65.26	34.74	50.63	27.62	21.75
Providence	63.96	36.04	50.43	32.25	17.31
Marquette	65.74	34.26	49.62	30.00	20.38
Villanova	63.60	36.40	49.32	27.95	22.73
Notre Dame	66.70	33.30	48.83	31.28	19.89
Georgetown	59.53	40.47	47.82	31.31	20.87
Seton Hall	64.17	35.83	46.99	31.30	21.72

With inside threats like Jeff Adrien, Hasheem Thabeet and Stanley Robinson the Huskies did not feel the need to shoot a lot of 3s. Those three had eFG%s of 50,4, 60.3(!) and 51.9 respectively. Robinson will stay home and take classes next fall, but Gavin Edwards (eFG% -- 55.0, Shot% -- 17.4, ) will be available, as will newcomer Nate Miles. The key is that Connecticut was efficient at scoring from both inside and outside the 3 point line. Whether proficiency inside the paint allowed open shooters on the wing is certainly possible, but no one would mistake Coach Calhoun's inside-oriented offense for John Beilein's Flying Circus. And since I mentioned Beilein, West Virginia is worth a mention here. Coach Bob Huggins won praise from Big East watchers for keeping parts of John Beilein's offense in place even as he implemented pieces of his defense (and it turns out, offense as well) with a roster largely recruited to play in Beilein's system. Huggins embraced the more athletic players on the roster, Joe Alexander, Joe Mazzulla, John Flowers and Wellington Smith even as he played Da'Sean Butler and seniors Darris Nichols and Jaime Smalligan. In John Beilein's last season the Mountaineers took 42.3% of their FGAs (all games, and 52.2% in Big East games...) as 3 point attempts. This past season they took 28.6% (34.7%, Big East games only) as 3FGAs. Bringing in Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks insures the ratio will stay in the 70:30 range.

I will look at Winn's 3^rd & 4^th points tomorrow.

U18 USA Men Defeat Venezuela

Early wire from Formosa, Argentina report that the USA U18 mens team beat B Pool rival Venezuela 82-73. No box score or story has been posted yet over at USA Basketball.

Checked back a while ago and there is a story posted. Travis Wear led the USA squad with 15 points. Kemba Walker manned the point (31 minutes, 12 points). Villanova's Maalik Wayns scored 5 points in 12 minutes of play. Wayns broke a 31-31 tie with 4:14 left in the first half, putting the USA squad ahead for good. Villanova recruiting target Dom Cheek scored 2 points with 5 minutes of play. The story, located on the USA Basketball website is "USA Men’s U18 National Team Victorious Over Venezuela 82-73". Those interested in the box score can find it here. The box is in .pdf format (need Adobe Acrobat Reader to access). The "Additional Quotes" link over at USA Basketball contains a few Q&As with Maalik (and other team members).

Maalik Wayns and the U18 Team

Looking for news about the team may be difficult. I don't know how closely ESPN/CBS/SportingNews/etc. will cover the team. The news I have found has come from USA Basketball, the non-profit organization which runs the USA's development program for the Olympic Committee and organizes the teams for FIBA competitions (a pretty good background on USA Basketball over at Wikipedia).

The team has left for Argentina on Friday -- the USA Basketball site has published 2 articles ("Planes, Trains, Automobiles, Part I" & "Planes, Trains and Automobiles, Part II") over the weekend, which documented their journey to Argentina and first few hours in the host country, getting focused for the tournament. Part I has a mini-interview with incoming UConn guard Kemba Walker and another with Maalik (and Maalik's picture is posted on Part II...better treatment than the Philly media). I suspect USA Basketball will be the major distributor for news/updates, so if you want to follow daily, bookmark their site (above -- or maybe the mods will sticky this post for easy reference). They are, according to the published schedule due to play Venezuela on Monday. This will be a typical international tournament -- 3 round robin games in their bracket (Monday - Wednesday), followed by 2 medal round games (Thursday & Friday). Team USA is assigned to Bracket B with the Bahamas, Pueto Rico and Venezuela. The top 4 finishers (brackets A & B) will qualify for FIBA's U19 competition next year.

For those not familiar with Maalik, USA Basketball has also provided a Background/Bio Page on him, and indeed on every member on team roster.

Go Maalik!
Go USA!

Statistics: Frequency vs Possessions

After I posted Ray's piece I took a look at the SEC Hoops: The Good. The Bad. The Dirty. Blog to see what those guys were up to. They organized data for the entire South East Conference -- teams and players -- and begun to publish a series of "minutes per..." statistics for individual SEC players. For convenience I will call these frequency stats, they suggest "how frequently" a particular player will perform some action (an FGA, an FTA, a foul, a steal, etc.) to distinguish them from per capita (per game) stats -- how frequently will a particular player/team perform a particular act/task over the course of a game, and possession-based stats. Ironically, all are refinements, an end product of some process that begins with the same grist -- the raw data produced by individuals and teams when they play the game. The differences however extend beyond simply the computations and organization, to what they might suggest about a player (or his team) and ultimately to how they can be employed for analysis of personal and team performance.

Consider the compilations of Minutes per Field Goal Attempt Ray produced in his latest Guest Post for the 2008 Villanova squad. The players making up the regular rotation were listed from most frequent shooter (rising sophomore Corey Fisher) to least frequent shooter (rising junior Reggie Redding). I know (using no more than a calculator...or a good estimate) that if he played an entire game Corey Stokes would have taken about 13 FGAs while Reggie Redding would have taken about 8. By comparing Corey Fisher to Scottie Reynolds, I would know that Fish would most likely take the shot (by a small margin...), but that putting both on the floor together would generate a whopping 30.5 FGAs over the course of a 40 minute game. Consider that Villanova averaged (ahhh -- a per capita stat...) 57.5 FGAs per game, the two would have accounted for 53% of the Wildcat's FGAs. What can that tell us about a line up that put both Fish and Reynolds on the floor simultaneously? I have reproduced Ray's table below, but added a third column of the Shot%, a possession-based stat that calculates the probability that a particular player will take the shot.

Player	MpFGA	Shot%
Corey Fisher	2.46	27.5
Malcolm Grant	2.74	22.4
Scottie Reynolds	2.81	24.3
Corey Stokes	2.94	21.9
Casiem Drummond	3.39	20.5
Antonio Pena	3.68	18.8
Dwayne Anderson	4.40	16.0
Shane Clark	4.47	17.6
Dante Cunningham	4.77	17.3
Reggie Redding	5.13	13.3

Shot% and MpFGA do appear to "track", but there is not an exact correlation. If I add Fisher's and Reynold's Shot% I get 51.8, very close to the 40 minute, per capita calculation I did earlier. I can tell by looking at Shot% that a four guard lineup with Drummond in the middle would have been very problematic for the team (the sum of the Shot% for Fisher, Grant, Reynolds, Stokes and Drummond is 116.6 -- the team would have needed two basketballs to maintain everyone's shot rate. The relationship between MpFGA and Shot% is less obvious when I compared the Big East's Top 10 Scorers:

Rnk	Player	School	MpFGA	Shot%
1.	L. Harangody	Notre Dame	1.79	35.6
2.	S. Young	Pittsburgh	2.28	29.0
3.	D. Jones	South Florida	2.63	25.5
4.	B. Laing	Seton Hall	2.72	25.4
5.	D. Vaughn	Cincinnati	2.58	27.6
6.	J. Flynn	Syracuse	2.80	22.7
7.	K. Gransberry	South Florida	2.76	27.3
8.	D. Green	Syracuse	2.36	28.2
9.	D. Burns	DePaul	2.33	29.5
10.	A.J. Price	UConn	2.68	24.4

"Luke Harangody takes a lot of shots" was my first thought when I saw Ray's numbers, putting his MpFGA up against his Shot%, and I have a very good idea of how significant Harangody's role is with respect to Notre Dame's offense. His 35.6% by the way, earned Harangody a #6 ranking overall in D1 according to Pomeroy's Notre Dame Scouting Report. And "Luke Harangody takes a lot of shots relative to his teammates" was my first thought when I saw Harangody's Shot%. Each statistic (MpFGA and Shot%) suggest something about an individual player's tendency to hoist shots (attempt field goals), but MpFGA measures that tendency against time, while Shot% measures it against the other players on the court (at the time the player is shooting...). Which explains why any correlation between an individual's MpFGA and Shot% breaks down with respect to the players in the Top Ten list. How can Jonny Flynn and Kentrall Gransberry, shooting at about the same frequency (2.20 vs 2.76) have a nearly 5% "gap" in their respective Shot% (22.7 vs 27.3)? The answer is the number of possessions (and by implication, shots) the team each plays on typically gets in a game. South Florida had about 67 possessions per game (according to Pomeroy's South Florida Scout Page), while Syracuse (per Pomeroy) had nearly 73.

That each of the Top Ten Scorers should be very efficient offensively is a given (he would not have been allowed to function in the role without demonstrating efficient scoring...), and the table below (same as the one above, just added the player's eFG% & ORtg to the other numbers...):

Rnk	Player	School	MpFGA	Shot%	eFG%	ORtg
1.	L. Harangody	Notre Dame	1.79	35.6	57.1	114.9
2.	S. Young	Pittsburgh	2.28	29.0	54.7	110.1
3.	D. Jones	South Florida	2.63	25.5	53.9	112.2
4.	B. Laing	Seton Hall	2.72	25.4	49.4	106.6
5.	D. Vaughn	Cincinnati	2.58	27.6	55.5	109.5
6.	J. Flynn	Syracuse	2.80	22.7	52.6	112.9
7.	K. Gransberry	South Florida	2.76	27.3	52.8	102.6
8.	D. Green	Syracuse	2.36	28.2	50.5	105.4
9.	D. Burns	DePaul	2.33	29.5	48.6	107.6
10.	A.J. Price	UConn	2.68	24.4	50.8	114.4

Notice that while all of the players listed were indeed efficient shooters (eFG%s nearly 50.0 or better) but all also efficiently generated points for their respective teams (ORtgs > 100). It is no coincidence that all but one of the players who had ORtgs > 110 played on teams that played in a post season tournament (NIT/NCAA). When we look at those same numbers for last season's Wildcat squad what can we learn?

Player	MpFGA	Shot%	eFG%	ORtg
Corey Fisher	2.46	27.5	43.3	94.1
Malcolm Grant	2.74	22.4	53.4	113.2
Scottie Reynolds	2.81	24.3	51.1	105.6
Corey Stokes	2.94	21.9	47.5	101.8
Casiem Drummond	3.39	20.5	52.4	104.4
Antonio Pena	3.68	18.8	46.5	95.4
Dwayne Anderson	4.40	16.0	57.6	114.9
Shane Clark	4.47	17.6	48.3	111.1
Dante Cunningham	4.77	17.3	54.4	104.1
Reggie Redding	5.13	13.3	42.5	99.7

The keys to progress next season may well come down to improvements by the (then sophomores) Fisher, Stokes and Pena. Fisher will need better judgement on when to shoot (and cut back a bit...) and work on setting up teammates. Stokes and Pena will have to become better scorers. Each, along with Drummond, may not get as many opportunities to shoot, but they will have to score more efficiently when they have the ball.

Guest Post: Ray Floriani on Minutes per Field Goal Attempt

Fellow stats lover Ray Floriani, a writer for Hoopville, the Big East Report and Basketball Times, ran across this statistic in an SEC blog. He was kind enough to run the numbers for the Villanova team and compare them to some of the Big East scoring leaders. And share his thoughts with us.

By Ray Floriani
Hoopville
Big East Report
Basketball Times

SOUTH ORANGE, NJ Saw an item on an SEC blog that listed the conference leaders in field goals attempted. This figure did not take sheer FGAs but calculated a figure, minutes per field goal attempt, dividing minutes by FGA. The leader in the SEC this past season was Marcus Thornton of LSU at 2.1 (mins per FGA). Devan Downey (2.3) and Austin Steed (2.4) both of South Carolina, followed Thornton. Which tells us the Gamecocks may not have enjoyed a banner year, still, they had a few players who weren’t bashful when it came to launching shots.

Decided to do a distribution on Villanova based on 2008 Big East (regular season only). In addition the top ten conference scorers are listed by (scoring) order with their minutes per field goal attempt.

Villanova Minutes per FGA 2007-08

Player	MpFGA
Corey Fisher	2.46
Malcolm Grant	2.74
Scottie Reynolds	2.81
Corey Stokes	2.94
Antonio Pena	3.68
Dwayne Anderson	4.40
Shane Clark	4.47
Dante Cunningham	4.77
Reggie Redding	5.13

Big East Conference Minutes per FGA of Top Ten scorers 2008

Rnk	Player	School	MpFGA
1.	L. Harangody	Notre Dame	1.79
2.	S. Young	Pittsburgh	2.28
3.	D. Jones	South Florida	2.63
4.	B. Laing	Seton Hall	2.72
5.	D. Vaughn	Cincinnati	2.58
6.	J. Flynn	Syracuse	2.80
7.	K. Gransberry	South Florida	2.76
8.	D. Green	Syracuse	2.36
9.	D. Burns	DePaul	2.33
10.	A.J. Price	UConn	2.68

Notes:  No surprise that guards basically dominated the top of ‘Nova’s list. The stat does give some insight regarding field goal attempt distribution. In the ‘raw’ stats, Scottie Reynolds led the Wildcats with 199 FGA while Corey Fisher was second at 164. Applying the figures per minute you can see Fisher was the one who was more active when it came to shooting.

Luke Harangody would get what the SEC folks at ‘The Good. The Bad. The Dirty’, the ‘Ball-hog’ award. Not really, as the SEC blog points out not everyone at the top of the list is to be considered selfish and possessive of the basketball. In Harangody’s case, he’’s the farthest thing from it. The Notre Dame sensation clearly led the best of the Big East in scoring and did it while taking a shot just under every two minutes. Call that smart coaching by Mike Brey. You have a dominant low post presence you feed him.

Kentrell Gransberry of South Florida was in the top ten and my observation regarding Harangody applies to him also. South Florida (with Dominque Jones) had two players with lofty minutes per field goal ratings. Again, there weren’t a great deal of options for the Bulls.

Syracuse also had two players with high rates (a shot less than every three minutes). One has to believe the wealth would have been spread more if Eric Devendorf hadn’t gone down with a season ending injury.

The shot disparity seems small. But over a forty minute span it is significant. For instance a shot every two minutes (given a player goes the full contest) gives 20 FGA. Another player getting a look every four minutes with similar playing time attempts 10 shots. A significant difference.