World University Games Wrap Part 2 -- The Teams

Final Standings & Some Possession-Based Stats
After looking at the final standings Monday night and reading a few day-after reactions, I decided to go back and process the boxscores for the teams that made it through to the quarter final round. This tournament divided the pool of team (23 total) into four groups of six each, with the intent that the teams within each assigned group would play five games, round robin style, to determine which of the three "second round" groups each team will be assigned. The first eight (two from each group) will play for positions 1 - 8, the next eight (again, two from each group) play for positions 9 - 15, the bottom two from each group will play for ranks 17 - 24. The teams then play three additional rounds to determine place/classification. Unlike the round robin format of the preliminary round, the second round pits winners versus winners and losers versus losers. After a team dropped out of the competition (before the start of play), the five remaining teams in Group B played a four game round robin, then divided (with a single team sent into the last group ). The usual quota of paradoxes and quirks surface when Team USA competes in a tournament with this particular format...

		Record			Points/Poss.
Rnk	Team	W	L	Pct.	Off.	Def.	Diff.	Pace
1	Serbia	6	1	0.857	1.03	0.84	0.19	71.2
2	Canada	5	2	0.714	0.91	0.86	0.05	76.0
3	Lithuania	6	2	0.750	1.02	0.93	0.09	79.7
4	Russia	6	2	0.750	1.01	0.90	0.11	71.1
5	USA	7	1	0.875	1.15	0.90	0.25	82.9
6	Germany	6	2	0.750	1.03	1.01	0.02	70.8
7	Finland	4	4	0.500	0.79	1.15	-0.36	76.2
8	Romania	3	5	0.375	0.85	1.02	-0.17	76.9

In addition to the usual wins/losses/winning percentages, I treated the eight teams that made the quarterfinal (and subsequent classification) round as a mini-conference and tracked their offensive and defensive efficiency and Oliver's four factors (see below) for both offense and defense, along with pace, (that is, possessions per 40 minutes) only in the games they played among themselves. This was typically four games, (admittedly not a large sample) the three played in the medal rounds and the one game played each group's #1 seed played with that group's #2 seed as part of the preliminary, round robin phase. In FISU (and FIBA) tournaments, wins and losses (and winning percentage) do not necessarily track with the place finishes. And this World University Game Tournament was no exception. Some of the oddities persist for the USA teams selected to compete in FIBA/FISU international tournaments.

On Offense...
						FTA
Rnk	Team	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	TO%	FGA
1	Serbia	54.2	1.17	27.2	24.4	57.0
2	Canada	43.4	0.95	36.1	22.7	46.2
3	Lithuania	52.9	1.10	32.9	21.7	36.5
4	Russia	46.1	1.05	40.6	21.4	46.2
5	USA	51.4	1.11	42.5	20.5	42.1
6	Germany	53.6	1.16	35.4	25.6	42.1
7	Finland	37.3	0.83	28.8	20.2	24.5
8	Romania	46.1	0.97	33.4	28.8	25.5

Serbia, 2009 WUG Tournament winner repeated in Shenzhen, taking the gold in a run that also included a single loss. This time, the Serbs lost their second game (on August 14, 2011), a a three point, 67-70 affair with the Canadians, their Group B #2 seed. Group B had only five teams in their bracket, which explains why Team Serbia and Team Canada played eight, rather than nine, games in the tournament. After losing to Team Canada, the Serbs ran off two consecutive wins to finish secure the #1 seed in Group B, and then swept the three medal rounds games, facing Team Canada a second time, and winning 68-55, to secure the #1 rank in the tournament field, and the gold medal.

Team USA ran off five straight wins to sweep their Group D opponents, but (like their U19 compatriots in July's U19 World Championships) dropped a two point quarter final decision and finished with two wins to secure fifth place. Again, losing in the quarter finals made all the difference, as that play began the elimination phase of the tournament.

On Defense...
						FTA
Rnk	Team	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	TO%	FGA
1	Serbia	40.8	0.92	32.8	24.3	43.4
2	Canada	46.6	0.99	28.4	26.8	44.7
3	Lithuania	43.9	1.00	28.8	20.5	41.6
4	Russia	47.5	1.05	20.2	23.8	48.0
5	USA	49.3	1.05	30.7	24.4	28.9
6	Germany	48.7	1.02	36.0	20.9	29.6
7	Finland	59.4	1.22	41.5	23.8	33.3
8	Romania	48.3	1.05	40.7	21.4	37.7

Looking at Team USA's four factors, this American squad posted strong, but not dominate numbers relative to the four teams that finished above them in the rankings. Comparing the overall shooting efficiency, turnover rate, offensive rebound and free throw rate to those posted in the Lithuania game, suggests where the Americans had greater difficulty in dealing with the Group C #2 seed. The American squad posted a dismal 38.1% shot efficiency versus Lithuania, coupled with an offensive rebounding rate of 26.7%, both well off their offensive numbers for the other medal opponent games. The game and boxscores identified Darius Miller with three fiest half fouls, while the Greens, Draymond and JayMychal, along with Trevor Mbakwe had four apiece by the end of the game. Lacking the consistent inside presence afforded by Mbakwe and JayMychal Green, the Americans continued to attempt three point shots, even though they compiled an abysmal 0-14 conversion rate in the second half. Draymond Green picked up two first half fouls, while Mbakwe and JayMychal Green picked up three apiece in the second half. A decimated front court, coupled with moving the offense to the outside (30 of the 67 FGAs attempted -- 44.8% of the American's total FGAs -- was far beyond the usual 31% recorded for the tournament) translated into a lower shot conversion rate and far fewer offensive rebounds.

X's & O's or Jimmys & Joes (part 2)?
The analysis/commentary that followed the U19 World Championship 5th place finish focused on squad experience ("lacked it"), the selection and development process ("star-oriented" and "not long enough to build a team"). Common sense (ie common knowledge) can betray us sometimes, as the tables above suggests the problem was not lack of offensive/defensive efficiency (signs of team cohesion) or offense/defense lack of production. The successes of U16/U17 Coach Don Showalter and Olympic coach Mike Krzyzewski suggest, continuity of the squad may be a bit less important than continuity of the coaching staff. A table of the last four WUG teams built using the tryout approach.

	Head	Staff
Year	Coach	Expr.	Finish
2011	Painter	14	5
2009	Ryan	19	3
2005	Wright	20	1
2001	Dunn	22	3

The staff this time around was very talented, Matt Painter of Purude, assisted by Brad Stevens (Butler) and Cuonzo Martin (Missouri State, Tennessee), but also the least experienced (years of head coaching experience) of the decade. Painter's seven years (six at Purdue and one at Southern Illinois) is actually half of the staff's total. While the coaches do not take the shots nor grab the rebounds, they do design the game plans and prepare the team to play. Does the string of "one game lapses" in the U18, U19 and WUG tournaments suggest a "slide to mediocrity" as some have suggested, or problems with oppposition scouting and game planning?

World University Games 2011 -- USA Falls to Lithuania, Plays for 5th Place

USA 74-76 Lithuania
For the second time in less than two months a Lithuanian team eliminated an American team from medal consideration in an international tournament, as the Americans dropped a two point decision, 74-76, to that Baltic Republic in the World University Games held at Shenzhen University earlier today. Team USA took a 2-0 lead on an Ashton Gibbs jumper and remained on top through the first quarter. With Team USA nursing a 15-12 lead in the second quarter, the Lithuanians tied it up at 22 near the quarter's midpoint, but the Americans stretched it back out to five at the intermission, 42-37, on the strength of a 9-5 run in the last 1:49 of the period. Vanderbilt's John Jenkins went 3-3 from beyond the arc to provide all nine of Team USA's points in the last two minutes, salvaging what had been to that point a dismal 1-5 efficiency on three point attempts in the quarter.

The Lithuanians used the intermission to regroup, and came out swinging with a 7-0 run to open the third quarter, taking the lead, 44-42, for the first time in the game. Pressured for the first time in the tournament, the Americans dropped the third quarter by a 28-19 margin, shooting blanks from three point land (0-5), an uncharacteristicly anemic 4-8 from inside the arc and committing three turnovers. An 11-16 performance from the charity striped, coupled with six offensive rebounds kept Team USA in the game. Down by four going into the last quarter, Coach Painter's squad managed to tie once, at 74, in the last 1:55, but a foul by Draymond Green on guard Mantas Kadzevicius put the Lithuanians up by two, 76-74, in what became the final score. Five attempted field goals by the American squad (three 3FGAs & two @FGAs) in the last 1:25 failed to drop, sending Team USA to the Classification round to fight for fifth place. The score by quarters...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Game
USA	15	27	19	13	74
Lithuania	12	25	28	11	76

Lithuanian wing Gediminas Orelik recorded a game-high 19 points on 6-10 (5-8, 1-2) shooting from the floor and 2-4 from the line. Three other Lithuanians, Marius Valukonis (11 points), Edgaras Stanionis (10 points) and Gediminas Zyle (10 points) scored double digit points.

Team USA was paced by John Jenkins' 17 points on 5-10 (4-9, 1-1) from the field and 3-3 from the line. Ashton Gibbs and JayMychal Green chipped in 16 points and 12 points respectively. Trevor Mbakwe led all rebounders with (4-6-10) 10, while Kadzevicius and Orelik paced the Lithuanians with six apiece.

The possession-based breakdown suggests this was a defensive struggle...

						FTA
Team	Pace	Eff.	eFG%	TOV	OR%	FGA	Ast%	PPWS
Team USA	87.9	0.84	38.1	26.2	26.7	46.3	47.8	0.91
Team Lithuania		0.87	54.2	27.3	35.6	35.6	67.9	1.10

The high pace could be attributed to the number of turnovers committed by both teams. Uncharacteristically, the USA team was, third quarter aside, unable to rebound their misses effectively (26.7%), which, combined with an out-of-character 30 three point attempts (44.8% of their FGAs; the USA averaged 19.4 3FGAs in their five previous tournament games), worked to diminish their eFG% to 38.1%, well below their tournament eFG% of 59.4% going into today's game.

Next
With the loss, Team USA will face Team Romania, the #2 seed out of Group A, who lost to Team Canada in quarter final play. The game will be played at 8:30 am (Eastern DST) in Shenzhen University's Luohu Gym.

Further Reading
USA Basketball posted a game recap on their website, along with a box score and post game quotes.

World University Games Preview -- USA & Lithuania

How They Got Here
With the end of group play yesterday the field reseeds for the next round of matches. The original 24 teams (23 actually arrived in Shenzhen to play) were divided into four groups of six teams and scheduled for a five game round robin with the other teams in their group. The two teams that finished with the worst records were supposed to play two classification round games to determine ranks #17 through #24, while the two teams that finished in the #3 & #4 positions play a two classification round games to determine ranks #9 through #16. Each groups #1 and #2 ranked teams will play three matches to determine the #1 through #8 order of finish.

Team USA swept their competition in Group D, going 5-0 for the first prelimnary round and taking the #1 seed. Team Lithuania was assigned to Group C, along with teams from Russia, Ukraine, Japan, New Zealand and the Philipines. The Lithuanians finished #2 with a record of 4-1, their only loss to Team Russia.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
...Team Lithuania has averaged 79.7 possessions through five tournament games, about three possessions lower than the Americans (82.6), so this should not be a tug-of-war over pace. Though the sample is very small, the offensive and defensive efficiencies, along with the possession-based stats may be worth a look...

	Teams
Efficiency	Lith.	USA
Offense	1.07	1.33
Defense	0.91	0.87
Difference	+0.16	+0.46

Given the lack of crossover games to tie the field together, the differences can be deceptive. The efficiency margins however (when combined with four factors below) suggest that favoring the Americans in this game is probably justified. While Lithuania dropped their Group C final game against Russia (62-77), Team USA's closest Group D game was versus Israel (94-84). Russia finished Group C with the #1 seed, while Israel's 2-3 record sent that team to the #9-#16 classifications. The Lithuanians rely on two point field goals for their offense. About 67% of their FGAs are two's, and they count on two's for 60% of their points, the balance coming from three's (23%) or at the line (16%). Why the emphasis on two point FGAs? Maybe because they have problems converting three's. The Lithuanians have averaged a 30.2% conversion rate for three point attempts -- had they taken those points as two's, they would have had to hit at a 45.1% rate, well below their 58.2% conversion rate for two's. They did not take three's because they converted at a more efficient rate with two's.

A "Four Factors" comparison when Team Lithuania has the ball...

When Lithuania has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Lithuanian O	54.1	20.5	38.7	33.4
American D	42.9	21.4	31.8	30.4

The key for Team Lithuania is efficient scoring by 6-6 wing Marius Valunkonis from Vytautas Magnus University and 6-10 Gediminus Zyle, a Euro-style forward out of Mykolas Romeris University. The two typically account for about 50+% of the shots when they are on the floor together. Should one or the other hit a dry spell, the Lithuanians need for a second group, generally headed by 6-7 forward/wing Gediminus Orelik (Kaunas University of Technology...Kaunas Tech?) and/or guard Ernestas Ezerskas (a teammate of Valunkonis at Vytautas Magnus University) to step in and fill the void. The Lithuanians have been a bit lax with the ball (see turnover rate), but give themselves a second chance on missed shots with strong offensive rebounding. Given the Americans have been strong on shutting down second chance opportunities, the battle under the Lithuanian's basket should become a strengh-on-strength matchup. The Americans have been strong at challenging for the ball (see their defensive turnover rate above); the two are fairly evenly matched on turnovers, so expect the Lithuanians to lose about one-in-five possessions; more than that and their offensive efficiency could be seriously diminshed; less than that, and the Americans could be in trouble defensively. The "Four Factors" look at Team USA's offense versus Lithuania's defense:

When the Americans have the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
USA O	59.4	15.3	53.0	40.5
Lithuanian D	45.0	20.6	26.1	31.7

Though JayMychal Green has paced the team in the past two games, scoring opportunities have been nicely distributed throughout the rotation, with Ashton Gibbs, John Jenkins and Scoop Jardine all knocking down game-high numbers at least once in the tournament and exhibition games. All four, plus Trevor Mbakwe have scored more than 10 points in more than one game. A lot of shooter/scorers to cover and shut down. Like the Lithuanians, the Americans look inside the three point line for their scoring, taking 71.4% of their field goal attempts as two's. Unlike the Lithuanians however, the American squad has converted 41.2% of their attempts, comparable to a 61.8% two point conversion rate. The Americans can look to Jenkins (principally), Gibbs, Draymond Green and Darius Miller for efficient conversion of the attempt. They have been good enough at the two point attempt (54.5% conversion rate) to open up the outside for opportunities.

Finally...
...Assuming a pace for the game of about 80 possessions, the Americans (based on efficiency margins, see above) should win by double digits -- about 15 or so. There are, for Team USA a couple of wrinkles...

1. Team USA has yet to play a competitive, 40 minute game. Several Group D teams (Mexico, South Korea) were able to hang with Team USA for a quarter, sometimes a bit more. The Israelis led after a quarter, and were competitive to another quarter and a half (about 15 minutes, 25 minutes total). The lack of competition had Coach Matt Painter experiment with a different starting five and mix the rotation a bit, neither of which are particularly good when trying to develop game-to-game consistency.
2. The stakes grow immensely in the medal round(s). A single loss in the preliminary round will (almost...) never send a team to the Classification rounds, while a loss in the medal rounds will consign a team immediately to the classifications. Badly timed losses have historically plagued American squads in international tournaments. The quarter final round in particular is a trap game for USA teams. Whether the breakdown is lack of preparation from the staff or lack of understanding by the squad members is not clear, but American squads have a habit of finishing fifth in FIBA and FISU competition with a single loss.

This particular squad may dodge that bullet, as Gibbs, Denmon and JayMychal Green have played on international teams (in similar tournaments) during their college careers. Those three should understand the transition that takes place as the tournament shifts from the preliminary round ("group play") format to the type of single round elimination format used in the medal rounds.

FIBA U19 World Championship -- Wrapping Up

Final Standings & Some Possession-Based Stats
I had a few minutes to process the balance of the U19 WC box scores -- the tournament used 62 games to decide places #1 through #16. The usual quota of paradoxes and quirks surface when Team USA competes in a tournament with this particular format...

		Record			Points/Poss.
Rnk	Team	W	L	Pct.	Off.	Def.	Diff.	Pace
1	Lithuania	7	2	0.778	1.12	0.90	0.23	83.2
2	Serbia	6	3	0.667	1.04	0.98	0.05	74.7
3	Russia	5	4	0.556	1.07	1.04	0.04	73.0
4	Argentina	5	4	0.556	0.97	0.99	-0.01	71.5
5	USA	7	2	0.778	1.10	0.91	0.19	80.9
6	Australia	6	3	0.667	1.09	0.94	0.16	69.7
7	Poland	5	4	0.556	0.95	0.97	-0.02	76.3
8	Croatia	4	5	0.444	0.98	1.03	-0.05	80.0
9	Brazil	5	3	0.625	1.04	0.92	0.13	75.1
10	Latvia	3	5	0.375	0.95	1.00	-0.05	78.9
11	Canada	3	5	0.375	0.99	1.08	-0.09	85.2
12	Egypt	1	7	0.125	0.89	1.09	-0.20	86.4
13	China	2	3	0.400	1.03	0.97	0.06	81.6
14	Taiwan	1	4	0.200	0.84	1.08	-0.23	75.8
15	S. Korea	2	3	0.400	0.96	1.11	-0.16	83.2
16	Tuniaia	0	5	0.000	0.79	1.14	-0.35	75.7

In addition to the usual wins/losses/winning percentages, I tracked offensive and defensive efficiency (and Oliver's four factors...some references below) and pace (possessions per 40 minutes). In FIBA tournaments, wins and losses (and winning percentage) will not necessarily track with the place finishes. A 16 team field will typically have two phases of round robin play (as they narrow the field -- note that teams placing #9 - #16 played fewer games than those placing #1 - #8) followed by a series of games which eliminate half of the remaining field from gold medal consideration. Given the format, oddities abound...

Timing is Everything
Note that two teams finished with 7-2 records. Lithuania lost their first U19 Tournament game (to Croatia) and then their fifth game (to the USA). After losing the fifth game, they ran off three successive wins to find themselves in the finals facing Serbia, a team they had already beaten in their fourth game -- by 17. Team USA ran off five straight wins, lost (their) games #6 and #7, and could do no better than a fifth place finish. They had to beat the strongest team, Australia (according to the Medal Round seed), from the other half of the field to take fifth. Losing in the quarter finals made all the difference, as that play began the elimination phase of the tournament. Lithuania took a loss in each of the preliminary (round robin) rounds, the consequence of which was a #3 seed in the (Group F) bracket going into the quarter final round.

Location, Location, Location?!?
One of the more repeated comments from on site observers was the large and partisan crowds from Lithuania, one of the three former Baltic Republic members of the Soviet Union, which flooded into Latvia (another of the former Soviet Union Baltic Republics) to cheer on their team as the video below documents.

The giant playing for Canada (in white) by the way, is Huntington Prep's Sim Bhullar, an Xavier commitment for 2012-13.

That six of the 16 teams in the field hailed from Europe (with three, the host plus Lithuania and Russia from Eastern Europs) should not surprise, nor should the fact that five of the six teams advanced to the Quarter Final Round and that three advanced to the Semi Final Round. After all, of the last nine teams to medal in the last three U19 World Championships (the tournaments held in 2007 in Serbia, 2009 in New Zealand and 2011 in Latvia), seven have been European -- Serbia twice, the others were France, Croatia, Greece, Lithuania and Russia. The other two medalists? Team USA. Had the tournament been held in Cincinnati and Louisville there is no doubt Team USA would have medaled (the onus of winning a pressure game in a strange environment would have been on the Russians), but would they have beaten Lithuania? Maybe, maybe not.

X's & O's or Jimmys & Joes?
After digesting Luke Winn's breakdown of 17 players from six National Teams for Sports Illustrated, FIBA's interview with George Raveling, long-time AAU power broker, now Nike's Director for International Basketball, who was in Riga for the U19 Championships ("The world is catching up...") and well publicized snubs endured by USA Basketball of the 27 U19 invitees who declined invitations to tryout (Kentucky's three players may have attracted the most media notice, but they covered the other 24 or so bballers who also slighted USA Basketball), the progression to Andy Katz's tournament wrap/analysis of what went wrong ("lack of experience") is fairly painless. Common sense (ie common knowledge) can betray us sometimes, as the table at top suggests the problem was not lack of offensive/defensive efficiency (signs of team cohesion). The Croatia game had "trap game" written all over it. Coming at the end of the second preliminary round, and after an overtime win over Lithuania (a revenge win and the game which locked up the Group F top seed for Team USA) the American squad had locked up the #1 seed going into the Quarter Final Round.

The staff did not run through a practice on the off day between the Croatia and Russia games, a decision which no doubt played into the American's spotty three point defense (the Russians were 12-29 from beyond the arc). In both the Croatian and Russian games the Americans "lost" the first and second periods, an indication they were not prepared to play. And in both games, the staff turned to Jeremy Lamb to kick start the offense in the third period, a strategy the Russians had to know to expect. Though Lamb was named to the All Tournament Team, he was unable to carry the team in those two games. As the successes of U16/U17 coach Don Showalter and Olympic coach Mike Krzyzewski suggest, continuity of the squad may be a bit less important than continuity of the coaching staff, especially the Head Coach.

FIBA U19 2011 World Championship -- A Pause Before the Medal Rounds (part 2)

Sorting Out Group F Action
Having exacted revenge for their 33 point drubbing at the hands of Lithuania in a pre-tournament exhibition game, Team USA seemed to sleep walk through three periods of play versus Croatia to close out Group F play. Supporters might rationalize the loss as a meaningless game at the end of the preliminary phase, after all, the USA won the F1 seed the day before, a side benefit of their win over Lithuania. Were the Americans showing their vulnerability, simply exhaling or perhaps exacting a bit more revenge on the Lithuanians complements of FIBA's ranking system? Beating Team USA moved Croatia into a tie with Lithuania for the F2 seed. The Croatians held the tie-breaker, due to their 13 point win, 88-75, over Lithuania on June 30. Serbia earned the last seed in Group F with a decisive 21 point win over Canada. The Group F standings when the buzzer on the USA-Croatia signaled the end of group play...

Group F
	Record				Pts/Poss
	W	L	Pts	Seed	Off	Def	Diff
USA	5	1	11	F1	1.12	0.91	+0.21
Croatia	4	2	10	F2	1.01	0.99	+0.03
Lithuania	4	2	10	F3	1.12	0.89	+0.23
Serbia	4	2	10	F4	1.02	0.96	+0.07
Canada	2	4	8	F5	0.96	1.07	-0.12
Egypt	1	5	7	F6	0.87	1.09	-0.22

What the Possession-Based Metrics Tell Us
The four teams that will advance out of Group F are listed above as "F1" through "F4". The ranking of the six teams that advanced out of Group C & D play to Group F wer well defined (see "...Eighth Final Round Preview") -- unlike the Group E pool, it was clear that several teams performed well in Group C (or D) play (USA, Lithuania, Serbia), while others struggled even with some modest success (Egypt). Many of the same characteristics exhibited in initial group play continued through the Group F cross over games. And again, note the ranking of Croatia and Lithuania (and Serbia). Croatia appears to have benefited from timely wins (versus Lithuania and USA), but not been especially dominant across the board in their play in Group C and Group F. The USA and Lithuania continue to dominate group play, piling up large efficiency margins, comparable to Australia's over in Group E. Though Group F has it's own imbalance, it is less pronounced than Group E's, and there was no single dominant Group F team at the end of Eighth Final Round play. Though like Group E, there seems to be a gap between the teams at the top (USA/Lithuania at >+0.20) and those at the bottom (Egypt/Canada at <-0.10).

How Good is the USA? Lithuania? Croatia?
I compared only the games the four Group F teams played with each other. Granted six games is a small sample, but the games were played over a relatively short period of time, played on (generally...) neutral courts and in a round robin fashion -- every team played every other team in the sample. I came up with these results...

Group E Quarter Final Teams
	Record			Pts/Poss
	W	L	Pts	Off	Def	Diff
Croatia	2	1	5	1.06	1.02	+0.04
Lithuania	2	1	5	1.02	1.01	+0.01
USA	2	1	5	1.08	1.08	+0.01
Serbia	0	3	3	0.95	1.01	-0.06

The competitive gap among the four teams advancing out of Group F is much smaller than the one separating the teams out of Group E. Note the efficiency margin separating Croatia and Serbia (about 0.10) is less than half the margin separating Australia and Poland (0.24), and less than the margin separating Poland from the bottom two advancing teams out of Group E (0.11). I realized Team USA's three games within the mini-conference were all decided by two points, I did not realize the other three teams had somewhat similar results against each other (Croatia's win over Lithuana the exception). I had suggested earlier that Team USA and Team Lithuania may well play a rubber game to decide the match (up). If the four Group F teams are better than their Group E counterparts, that may well come to pass.

Quarter Final Games of Interest
All of them actually, the schedule...

Opponents (seed)		Start
Group E	Group E	Time (EDST)
Poland (E2)	Lithuania (F3)	7:30am
Russia (E4)	USA (F1)	9:45am
Australia (E1)	Serbia (F4)	noon
Argentina (E3)	Croatia (F2)	2:15pm

If the draw was indeed random, then the distribution should have placed (at least) one quality team on each side of the bracket. The barometer game will be the first of the round -- Poland-Lithuania. The Lithuanians have been able to pack the Latvian arenas in Liepaja and Riga with fans as loud as they are partisan. The Poles, however, ought to be able to bring a few fans for this game too, one of two other Eastern European countries still competing close enough to bring enough fans to neutralize the Lithuanian fan-base. Though backup Doyydas Redikas, starting in place of regular Vytenis Cizauska acquitted himself in both the USA and Egyptian games, getting a fully recovered (rolled ankle in the Serbia game July 5) Cizauska back will insure the Lithuanian team is at full strength. A big win by Poland would signal a long day for Group F teams. A big American win in the USA-Russia game (9:45am EDST) will prove little. Comparing Oliver's four factors for each team, the Russians can score, but have problems defending opponents' field goal attempts. And they foul way too often. The American team should be able to hold the Russian conversion rate down, negating Russia's strongest asset. A quick and aggressive-to-the-basket American team should have Team Russia back on their heels early. Though the Americans foul often, almost as much as the Russians, the Russians do not play aggressively enough to capitalize on that vulnerability.

Like the Russian-American game, the Australia-Serbia game will only be significant if it is close (or if it goes badly against the Aussies). The Croatia-Argentina game should go to the Croatians. The Argentine offense is limited, against the better teams in Group E they failed to convert field goals consistently, nor rebound enough to get themselves second chance opportunities. The Croatians concentrate on the defensive boards, so the Argentines will get few second chances. Croatia converts field goals proficiently and values the ball. Argentina does defend the three point line well, so if the Croatians go inside (they tend to favor the three point attempt), they should score often enough to put this one out of reach early. A Lithuanian loss early however, will focus my attention on this game to get a better sense of how weak the "F side" of the bracket actually was.

FIBA U19 World Championship -- USA Loses by Two to Croatia

USA 85 Croatia 87
Perhaps still basking in the glow of their win over Team Lituania yesterday, Team USA started slowly against the Croatians this morning in their sixth game of the FIBA U19 World Championships. Trailing by as much as 11 through the first three periods, the American put on a furious rally to retake the lead, 76-75, on a Doug Mc Dermott three point shot with just under four minutes to play. Over the next 1:15 Team USA pushed their advantage out to four points, 82-78, the last points coming on a Jeremy Lamb jumper, but the Croatians rallied one last time, using a 5-0 run to retake the lead on a Toni Katic runner with 0:48 83-82, and then hung on to take the win. Team Croatia upset Team Lithuania in the opening game of Preliminary Round One, this game appears to be the bookend for their preliminary round games. The Croatians logged a 4-2 record through the two preliminary round robin phases, tieing them with Lithuania, but by virtue of that opening win over Lithuania, Croatia takes the #2 seed (F2) into the Medal Rounds. Jeremy Lamb led all scorers with 25 points on 9-20 (0-3, 9-17) shooting from the floor and 7-10 from the line. Two other Americans, Patric Young (15 points) and Joe Jackson (14 points) also scored more than 10 points. Patric Young and Croatia's Dario Saric each grabbed eight rebounds. The Croatians were paced by point guard Toni Katic's 21 points scored by 8-10 shooting from the floor and 5-8 from the line. Centers Boris Barac (18 points) and Dario Saric (17 points) chipped in double digit points for the Croatian effort.

Mulling over the game boxscore to develop some possession-based stats for the game...

						FTA
	Poss.	Eff.	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
USA	81.0	1.03	50.0	35.1	14.8	24.3
Croatia		1.12	54.5	18.2	11.1	32.8

Team USA offense was not over powering as it has been in several of the previous five games, but it was the defense that did not hold when the Americans retook the lead with less than four minutes to go. The Croatians' 9-3 run in the last 3:30 came on 3-6 shooting from the floor and 5-7 from the line.

Other Group F Play Today

Team				Team	Diff
Egypt	59		78	Lithuania	-19
Serbia	94		73	Canada	+21

Team Egypt exited group play with another double digit loss, but it was the win, over China in Group D play that they will remember fondly as they finish out in the #9-#12 classification rounds to be played Friday and Saturday. Heading off to the classification rounds with Egypt will be Team Canada, which finished group play with a 2-4 record complements of a 21 point loss to Team Serbia today. Group F standings...

	Record
	W	L	Pts.	Seed
USA	5	1	11	F1
Croatia	3	2	8	F2
Lithuania	3	2	8	F3
Serbia	3	2	8	F4
Canada	2	3	6	Class
Egypt	1	4	5	Class

.

Bell Tones
Villanova's wing James Bell started his sixth consecutive tournament game and logged 13 minutes of play, mostly rotating in for defense. Bell shot 0-4 (0-3, 0-1), scoring no points. He grabbed 4 rebounds (all defensive boards) and dished an assist.

Who's Got Next?
Who Team USA faces next will depend on the results from Group E play today. The Americans can see either Argentina (should the Argentines lose to Brazil today) or Russia (Argentina beats Brazil and Russia beats Latvia), either of whom will secure the E4 seed later today. The game with Croatia should serve notice to the Americans however, that from here on in, every game can be the last game.

FIBA U19 World Championship -- USA Squeezes by Lithuania, Takes Control of Group F

USA 107 Lithuania 105
Team USA survived a 13-1 Lithuanian onslaught that lasted through the last minute of regulation and into the first two minutes of overtime, to defeat Team Lithuania by two and take control of Group F play with a 5-0 record. With two ticks left on the clock in overtime and the score knotted at 105, Connecticut's Jeremy Lamb nailed a two pointer that capped a 12-4 USA run in a game labeled by FIBA as the game of the day thereby avenging a humiliating 33 point loss to Lithuania in exhibition play two days before the start of the U19 World Championship. How did it come down to a last shot? With a minute left and a six point cushion, heretofore reliable members of the USA squad seemed to suffer a collective brain freeze as they let an extremely energetic Lithuanian squad back into the game with a 6-0 run. Memphis point guard Joe Jackson committed a turnover that led to a Lithuanian bucket, then Creighton's Doug McDermott took an ill-advised last second shot that missed. Florida's Patric Young missed two free throws (fouled while grabbing the offensive rebound), and Lithuania hit a buzzer shot to knot the score at 94 at the end of regulation. Team Lithuania tacked another 7-1 run on top of their 6-0 run to build a 101-95 lead before Team USA caught their collective breath and went to work putting together a 10-4 run of their own to set up Lamb's heroic last second shot. Jeremy Lamb paced all scorers with a prolific 35 points on 13-23 (5-7, 8-16) shooting from the field and 4-5 from the line. Lithuanian center Jonas Valanciunas paced the Lithuanians with 30 of his own, coming on 11-20 (0-0, 11-20) shooting from the floor and 8-10 from the line. The 6-11 low post player grabbed a monstrous 15 (6-9-15) rebounds to lead all the glass cleaners and post a double-double, one of two recorded by Lithuanians. Four other Team USA squad members, Jackson (19 points), Patric Young (15 points), McDermott (13 points) and Tim Hardaway Jr, himself a last minute hero in the two point win over Team Serbia last Friday, scored 10 points. McDermott and Tony Mitchell tied for most American rebounds, each snagging eight. Three Lithuanians also scored in double digits, Edgaras Ulanovas (29 points), Doyydas Redikas, starting in place of injured point guard Vytenis Cizauskas, scored 29 points and Arnas Butkevicius (10 points). Redikas made the most of his chance to fill in for Cizauskas, grabbing 10 (5-5-10) rebounds, producing the second Lithuanian double-double of the game.

Mulling over the game boxscore to develop some possession-based stats for the game...

						FTA
	Poss.	Eff.	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
USA	84.8	1.12	49.4	40.4	14.7	34.5
Lithuania		1.07	55.5	37.2	19.9	47.9

The pace is adjusted for a 40 minute game, and more comfortable for Team USA than Team Lithuania. Overall the two teams had about 95 possessions for the four periods and overtime. Despite the end-of-regulation hiccup, Team USA used their 95 possessions more efficiently than Team Lithuania. While the Lithuanians "won" on efficient shooting (55.5% vs. 49.4% eFG%), Team USA actually had more opportunities, complements of turnovers (an outstanding 14.7% vs. 19.9%) and ironically, foul shooting. Though Lithuania got to the line more often than the Americans (35 vs 30), they converted only 24 of their attempts, only three more than the Americans (21). Had Lithuania matched USA efficiency at the charity stripe -- 70% -- they would have won by two. Lithuanian point guard Vytenis Cizauskas was a last minute DNP. The 6-2 pulse of the Lithuanian back court rolled his ankle in the Lithuania-Serbia game on July 4, and though not perceived as serious after the game, the condition of the ankle deteriorated during the night. Despite a warmup, Cizauskas was held out by Lithuanian Head Coach Kazys Maksvytis. Here is hoping Cizauskas has a speedy recovery and will be back in action for the medal rounds (if not tomorrow).

Other Group F Play Today

Team				Team	Diff
Canada	91		71	Egypt	+20
Croatia	68		73	Serbia	-5

With their loss to the Canadians, Team Egypt will be consigned to the #9-#12 classification rounds at the conclusion of Group F play. Croatia, which stunned Lithuania to open the tournament a week ago, stumbled against Team Serbia, creating a logjam for second place in Group F. With only four of the six Group F teams scheduled to advance to the Medal Rounds, the question is who will be the last cut? Team Canada, with their win over Team Egypt kept hope alive, and will settle the last spot issue on the court with Team Serbia tomorrow. Group F standings...

	Record
	W	L	Pts.
USA	5	0	10
Lithuania	3	2	8
Croatia	3	2	8
Serbia	3	2	8
Canada	2	3	6
Egypt	1	4	5

FIBA ranks Serbia, the winner over Croatia today lower because of their overall points for/points against margin (10 vs. 9). Serbia holds the tie-breaker over Croatia, so should the Serbs beat the Canadians tomorrow (and the Croatians beat the Americans...), Team Serbia will most likely receive the higher seed going into the Quarterfinal Round Friday. Should Serbia lose to Canada, the two teams will be tied at 3-3, and the Canadians (most likely, especially if they beat Serbia by four or more points) will advance to the Quarterfinal Round (either F3 or F4 on the Team USA site).

Bell Tones
Villanova's wing James Bell logged 23 minutes of play and scored two points on 1-5 (0-1, 1-4) shooting. He grabbed 3 rebounds (all on the Lithuanians' boards) and dished an assist.

Who's Got Next?
Team USA will close out Group F play with Team Croatia, the game scheduled to start at 2:30pm Riga time (7:30 EDST). The Croatians beat Lithuania to open the tournament, but have stumbled against the Serbs and South Koreans. The two countries have faced off five times since 1997, Team USA holding a 4-1 edge. While Team USA is guaranteed the top Group F seed going into the Quarterfinal Round, Croatia will play for their seed (or in some scenarios, survival). Should they beat Team USA they will advance to the Quarterfinal Round with the #2 seed from Group F (F2). Should they lose, the situation becomes...complicated, their fate depending on the result of the Team Serbia-Team Canada game.

FIBA U19 World Championship Preview -- USA & Lithuania

The Rematch...
The USA-Lithuania 2011, Part 2 will be one of the featured games in Riga Tuesday July 5. At the U15-U18 levels the USA men's teams are the presumptive favorites, and had these two squads not met in a pre-tournament exhibition match, most would probably assign Team USA the "favorite role" here. That 33 point loss on June 28 however, coupled with a 29 point loss on the 26th to the Lithuanian U20 team, gave a nasty jolt to USA hopes and expectations to repeat as the U19 champions in Latvia. Were those exhibition games simply growing pains for another mix-n-match national team selected through the two week tryout process, or a foreshadow of performance difficulties once the tournament got underway?

If the exhibition was wake up call to the Americans -- Team USA ran off four straight wins, three by double-digits -- the Lithuanians first outing in the FIBA U19 tournament, a 13 point 88-75 drubbing at the hands of Croatia, was a bucket of cold water. The Lithuanians have won three straight by margins of 53, 43 and 17.

With the cross over round robin play between Group C and Group D teams, both the Lithuanians and Americans have played Team Canada...

	Lith.		USA
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Canada	W	+43	W	+17

The margins suggest the exhibition win margin stands, and that Team USA will have an up stream swim against Team Lithuania.

Lineups, Rotations...
...Coach Hewitt has routinely gone 11-12 deep, using virtually every player on the bench. He has also tended to distribute the playing time in an even fashion, though in the most closely contested game, a two point win versus Team Serbia, Hewitt shortened his rotation by two (Jahlil Carson and Anthony Brown were DNP), and limited minutes for two others (Khyle Marshall and Meyers Leonard), effectively giving himself, despite having two starters in foul trouble, an eight man rotation. Coach Hewitt experimented with the starting five in the two Lithuanian exhibition games, but has settled on the same five for the FIBA tournament so far. The point is manned by Joe Jackson, a 6-0 guard out of Memphis University, while two Big East rising sophomores, Connecticut's 6-6 Jeremy Lamb and Villanova's 6-5 James Bell, take their spots on the wing. Who is the #2 guard and who is the small forward? Both wing spots seem to play interchangeably, Bell is reputed to defend a bit more aggressively while Lamb tends to take more three point attempts. Both rebound and chip in assists. Hewitt has Doug McDermott, a 6-7 forward out of Creighton at the #4 and 6-9 Patric Young, a bfc out of Florida at the #5. Though he will reach deep into the bench when the game is in hand, Michigan's 6-5 shooting guard Tim Hardaway Jr tends to see time early, often in the first period and provides scoring from both inside and outside the three point line. 6-9 Tony Mitchell, a rising sophomore at North Texas along with Meyers Leonard, a 7-0 Illini split the rotation with Patric Young, though two of those three might be in simultaneously when Team USA needs more size under the basket. Look for Keith Appling (6-1, Michigan State) and Jahii Carson (5-11, Arizona State incoming freshman) to spell Jackson at the point. Jackson is a stud, and if the game is close Hewitt may decide to ride that horse home. Khyle Marshall, a 6-7 forward out of Butler has seen minutes in three of the four games so far.

Lithuania's Coach Kazys Maksvytis has tinkered with the starting five for each of the Team Lithuania's four FIBA U19 games, but count on 6-2 Vytenis Cizauskas to start in the backcourt, most likely the #1, with 6-7 forward Edgaras Ulanovas and 6-11 Jonas Valanciunas in the front court. Valanciunas, starter at the #5 and Cizauskas power the Lithuanian attack as an inside/outside combination. Maksvytis has also started 6-4 Doyydas Redikas and 6-4 Deidivas Pukis in the back court at times this tournament (and even if he does not start, expect them to see minutes). At 6-7 both Zygimantas Skucas and Rolandas Jakstas have started in the front court and wing. Again, start or no, both will see playing time, along with 6-6 Arnas Butkevicius, 6-8 Egidijus Mockevicius and 6-8 pf Tautvydas Sabonis.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
...Team Lithuania has averaged 85.7 possessions through four tournament games, among the highest in the field. That is lower than the scorching pace set in their exhibition game with Team USA (about 93 possessions). 85+ possessions is no doubt due to the open game fostered by the large winning margins the Lithuanians have managed. Team USA has seen it's possesion rate drift up to 80 per game (average). A 90+ possession rate would be fatal for Team USA, as it implies a lot of missed field goal attempts (and few offensive rebounds). A possession rate in the 84+ range would not be shocking, but probably not a good sign for Team USA. A "Four Factors" comparison when Team Lithuania has the ball...

When Lithuania has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Lithuanian O	53.3	20.2	39.6	34.2
American D	37.2	19.1	28.7	30.8

The key for Team Lithuania is efficient scoring by Valanciunas and Cizauskas. Both have had cold stretches, but some combination of Sabonis, Skucas, Redikas and/or Ulanovas has been able to step in with shots and points. Team USA has been very good at defensing the shot, one of the better teams in the field at shutting down three point shooters (James Bell?), so this strength-on-strength matchup between the teams will be a critical indicator on who will control the flow of the game. The Lithuanians have been a bit lax with the ball (see turnover rate), but make up for that with strong offensive rebounding. The Americans have been strong on shutting down second chance opportunities, so we see another strengh-on-strength matchup. On the other hand, the Americans have not been especially aggressive at challenging for the ball (see their defensive turnover rate above), so though the Lithuanians are vulnerable, it is not clear that Team USA can exploit that weakness. The "Four Factors" look at Team USA's offense versus Lithuania's defense:

When the Americans have the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
USA O	53.4	17.8	37.3	28.9
Lithuanian D	41.3	18.4	25.2	25.7

This offensive/defensive lineup suggests there are two areas, turnover rates and getting to the line (FTA/FGA) that are consistent between Team USA's offense and Team Lithuania's defense. These areas will most likely not decide the game. Two of the other "factors", shooting efficiency and rebounding USA missed field goals, do clash, suggesting these will be the areas that will decide how easily the Americans can put points on the board. Team USA does a good job of scoring, and looks to a combination of Jackson, Lamb, Young, McDermott, Bell and Hardaway to provide inside and outside conversions. The team is not particularly effective slashing to the basket (out of an offensive set), and takes care of the ball -- they should get their shots off, but if they miss will they get that second chance to reset and shoot again?

Finally...
...Assuming an average pace for the tournament field of about 77 and an average efficiency of about 101, the estimated pace would be in the neighborhood of 90 (not good news for the USA squad), with about a five or so point win for Team USA. There is, however, no question the field is extremely unbalanced and virtually certain that the random draw that assigned groups was not an even distribution of teams (remember the plethora of 2-1 teams in Group E?), so the projection should be taken with a very large grain of salt. The key may well be fouls, an issue in the USA-Lithuania exhibition. In addition to putting the Lithuanians on the line for additional scoring opportunities, a large foul imbalance would also put critical members of the American squad on the bench for potentially large stretches of the game. Not a good sign should that repeat from the first meeting. For the Lithuanians, another loss would give them (at least) two as the field is seeded for the medal rounds (no question the loser tomorrow will still qualify for the medal round), no doubt matching Team Lithuania with a relatively stronger quarter final opponent from Group E. This game should be a good measure on how far this U19 USA squad has come in the three weeks they have been together.

FIBA U19 World Championship -- USA Hammers Canada, Stays Undefeated at 4-0

USA 83 Canada 54
Team USA built a comfortable seven point lead, 21-14, over Team Canada in the first period but blew the game open by tacking another 16 points on to that lead in the second period, 25-9, to double up Team Canada, 46-23 going into the half. Villanova's James Bell broke out of his shooting slump to post a game-high 16 points on 6-9 (4-6, 2-3) shooting from the field. Bell did not get to the line, but the 6-5 wing became the fourth different USA player to lead the squad. For the four tournament games a different player has led the squad, three times pacing both squads in scoring. One other American, Doug McDermott (10 points) posted double-digit points as all 12 members of the squad logged double-digit minutes of playing time, and none played more than 20 minutes total. Tony Mitchell nabbed a game-high nine rebounds, with Bell just behind with eight and two other Yanks, Patric Young and Meyers Leonard, with seven apiece. Team Canada was paced by center Sim Bhullar's 15 points on 7-10 shooting from the field and 1-4 from the line. Bhullar is a 7-4 fifth year player at Huntington Prep in West Virginia. 6-4 guard Junior Lomomba and 6-6 small forward Dyshawn Pierre recorded 11 apiece. Bhullar paced the Canadians with seven rebounds, while Pierre nabbed six.

Picking apart the game boxscore to develop some possession-based stats for the game...

						FTA
	Poss.	Eff.	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
USA	81.9	1.01	49.3	40.0	18.3	21.3
Canada		0.66	39.1	31.5	17.2	13.8

After two games of possessions in the 70s, Team USA kicked it back up into the 80s, most likely resulting from poor shooting efficiency (note the less than sterling eFG%, the Americans shot 33-75 from the field, and, Bell's contribution discounted, a paltry 4-18 from beyond the arc) and slightly higher (but not especially alarming) turnover rate. The key for this and the previous three games has been defense. Team USA has held their opponents to 0.80 points per possession (ppp) with shot conversion efficiency (eFG%) in the high 30s. That is outstanding defense, and coupled with strong board work, has allowed the Americans to win three of the four games by 16 or more points.

Other Group F Play Today

Team				Team	Diff
Egypt	81		83	Croatia	-2
Serbia	54		71	Lithuania	-17

The Lithuania-Serbia score, coupled with the earlier disappointing outing versus the Lithuanians, should be cause for concern for Team USA going into tomorrow's showdown. With a 3-1 record, the Lithuanians have to know a loss tomorrow will put a second loss on them going into the medal rounds. A win over Team USA will assure them (should they not lose again in preliminary play) of the top seed out of Group F.

Bell Tones
Villanova's wing James Bell logged 20 minutes of play and led the team in scoring with 16 points, as he started his fourth consecutive game for Team USA. Bell grabbed eight rebounds, one less than team leading Tony Mitchell in 20 minutes of play. He had a single personal foul, good news as fouls have been a cause for concern the past 2-3 games.

One of Bell's points was a dunk on a feed from guard Anthony Brown of Stanford. Looks like he has his bounce back.

Who's Got Next?
Team USA will have a rematch with Team Lithuania in Riga, Latvia on Tuesday. Team USA and Team Lithuania have played six times in international competition since 1997, Team USA holding a 4-2 advantage. These two squads faced off in Team USA's second exhibition game on June 28. Team Lithuania clobbered the Americans by 33 points (108-75) in a game that had had some wondering if this squad would be competitive in this U19 tournament.

FIBA U19 2011 World Championship -- Eighth Final Round Preview

And Then There Were 12
The first preliminary round of the FIBA U19 World Championship Tournament has finished, and the top three teams from each of the four groups will advance and be reseeded into two groups (E & F) of six teams each.

The reseeded groups E (groups A & B) & F (groups C & D) will take their first round records (and points) into second round play. Showing each team's points per possession and efficiency margin (offensive points per possession - defensive points per possession) should provide a hint of things to come in the second round:

Group E
	Record			Pts/Poss
	W	L	Pts	Off	Def	Diff
Brazil	2	1	5	1.11	0.90	+0.21
Australia	2	1	5	1.14	0.85	+0.29
Poland	2	1	5	1.06	0.90	+0.16
Russia	2	1	5	1.12	0.98	+0.14
Latvia	2	1	5	0.91	0.89	+0.02
Argentina	2	1	5	0.89	0.92	-0.03

One might expect that with randomly drawn four team groups, the distribution of reseeded teams from each group might fairly distributed even as well. Not so with Group E. Though all six teams advance with identical records, a look at each team's points per possession counters the strong inference that second round play will be tightly contested. Brazil, Poland and Russia sport large difference margins in part because each beat up on the #4 team, Tunisia, in the group. Tunisia is headed to the first set of classification games, along with Taiwan (Group B), South Korea (Group C) and China (Group D -- a mild surprise), while those three will continue with match-ups against the Group B contingent. Group B leader Australia, has three games that should be very interesting. Four teams will advance out of Group E, and from the point difference it seems that Group A will be heavily represented. As for Group F...

Group F
	Record			Pts/Poss
	W	L	Pts	Off	Def	Diff
USA	3	0	6	1.15	0.85	+0.30
Lithuania	2	1	5	1.16	0.84	+0.32
Serbia	2	1	5	1.03	0.94	+0.09
Croatia	2	1	5	1.00	0.95	+0.05
Canada	1	2	4	0.99	1.11	-0.12
Egypt	1	2	4	0.86	1.12	-0.26

I had assumed, before the start of tournament play, that two losses would consign a team to the classification round. Not so apparently, as both Group C and Group D contribute a team with a 1-2 record. Canada's loss to Lithuania may have been expected, but the loss to an unexpectedly tough Croatian team rates a mild surprise. A look at the points per possession (ppp) shows that Croatia had a small, but nevertheless positive difference margin. Lithuania was stunned by that Croatian team on the first day of tournament play, which accounts for their 2-1 record. Team Lithuania is stronger than the record implies. Though all three second preliminary round games will be tough for Team USA, expect the game with Lithuania (played on Tuesday), to hint at how far the USA team has come in the last three-plus weeks. Serbia's game with Lithuania on Monday (7/4) should tell us whether Team Lithuania peaked in the exhibition tournament which preceded the FIBA World Championship.

Games of Interest
The aforementioned USA-Lithuania rematch aside, other games of the Eighth Final Round that should prove interesting include Australia-Russia (Monday 7/4), Croatia-Serbia (Tuesday 7/5), USA-Lithuania (Tuesday 7/5) and Australia-Brazil (Tuesday 7/5), Serbia-Canada (Wednesday 7/6 -- these two may be fighting over a spot in the medal round), USA-Croatia (Wednesday 7/6) and Australia-Poland (Wednesday 7/6 -- could decide whether Australia makes it to the medal rounds).

FIBA U19 World Championship -- USA Downs China Sweeps Group D Play

A Perfect Ending to Group D Play
Team USA built a 12 point lead over winless (in Group D play) Team China in the first period and never looked back as they logged a second double digit win ( points) of 82-66, in the first preliminary round of the FIBA U19 World Championship in Latvia this afternoon. The win sends the American team into the second preliminary round with the top seed in Group F play. Connecticut's Jeremy Lamb shared the game-high scoring honors with China's Mingxin Ju, as the two small forwards scored 17 points for their respective sides. Ju shot 7-16 (0-4, 7-12) from the field, adding 3-3 from the line. Lamb shot a slightly more efficient 7-12 (1-3, 6-9) from the field with 2-2 from the line. For the third consecutive tournament game a different squad member led the scoring, which ought to make this a difficult squad to plan a defense. Three other Americans, Doug McDermott (15 points), Khyle Marshall of Butler (13 points) and Tim Hardaway (13 points) recorded double digit points. Four Yankees, McDermott, Patric Young, Marshall and Tony Mitchell shared high-rebounding honors by snaring eight apiece.

Picking apart the game boxscore to develop some possession-based stats for the game...

						FTA
	Poss.	Eff.	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
USA	79.6	1.03	53.6	18.4	13.8	14.3
China		0.83	39.2	22.7	18.8	33.8

High 70s seems to be a comfortable pace for the American squad, this is the second game where they have played at that pace. The path to victory for this game was different enough to set this game apart. Team USA did not dominate the boards -- their 18.4% rebounding rate on the offensive boards a testament to their being out-rebounded heavily under their own basket. Today, the fact that Team USA and Team China grabbed the same number of rebounds (41) did not diminish the margin of victory, because they shot so well, 53.6% (eFG%) -- far better than their Chinese counterparts at 39.2% (eFG%) -- and valued the ball far better in this game than the previous two (13.8% turnover rate this game) and better than Team China (18.8 turnover rate).

Pools -- Summarizing the First Preliminary Round & Looking Ahead
Groups C & D standings at the end of preliminary round one...

Group C				Group D
	W	L			W	L
Croatia	2	1		USA	3	0
Lithuania	2	1		Serbia	2	1
Canada	1	2		Egypt	1	2
South Korea	1	2		China	0	3

Team Canada stumbled again in Saturday play, losing to Lithuania, 68-111. The Canadians, despite being tied with Team South Korea at 1-2 (the South Koreans stunned Group C leader Croatia Saturday 75-71), advanced to Group F play on the tie-breaker (the Canadians beat South Korea 109-93 on Thursday), while the Koreans, along with Team China from Group D, were relegated to Classification play (placed #13 - #16). Team Serbia beat Team Egypt, 85-67, to advance to Group F play with a 2-1 record. The top three teams from Groups C & D advanced to Group F where they will play a second (preliminary) round of three games, all with teams that advanced from the other group. Group F standings going into play tomorrow...

	Record
	W	L	Pts.
USA	3	0	6
Lithuania	2	1	5
Serbia	2	1	5
Croatia	2	1	5
Canada	1	2	4
Egypt	1	2	4

The seeds are known, so the schedule for the second preliminary round will, for Team USA, look like this...

Day/Date	Opponent
Monday, July 4	Canada (C3)
Tuesday, July 5	Lithuania (C2)
Wednesday, July 6	Croatia (C1)

All tournament teams will rest Sunday, with play to resume Monday, July 4. Tournament action will move to Riga.

Bell Tones
Villanova's wing James Bell started his third game of the tournament and played 14 minutes against Team China. Bell scored two points on 1-3 (0-0, 1-3) shooting from the field and 0-0 from the line. Bell grabbed a rebound and a steal for Team USA.

Who's Got Next?
Team USA will face off against Team Canada in Riga, Latvia on Monday. Team USA and Team Canada have played six times in international competition since 2008, Team USA holding a 5-1 advantage.

FIBA U19 World Championship -- USA Beats Serbia, Grabs Lead in Group D Play

Taking Charge of Group D
Team USA thwarted a second half comeback by Team Serbia to squeeze out a two point win, 80-78, and take control of Group D play on the second day of preliminary pool play. With 0:48 left in period four, Tim Hardaway of Michigan hit a jumper to break a 78 point deadlock and give the USA win number two in group play. Serb point guard Aleksandar Cvetkovic led all scorers with 20 points on 6-12 (1-4, 5-7) shooting from the field and 7-9 shooting from the line. Memphis guard Joe Jackson paced Team USA with 19 points on 6-12 (0-1, 6-11) shooting with another 7-7 from the line. Three other Americans, Patric Young of Florida (13 points), Tony Mitchell of North Texas (11 points) and Hardaway, who scored the game winner, (11 points) logged double digit points. Jeremy Lamb of Connecticut, Doug McDermott of Creighton and Patric Young all grabbed game-high seven rebounds.

On the game's first possession Villanova's wing James Bell intercepted a Serb pass and fed Joe Jackson for an easy two to open the scoring at 2-0, USA. The two teams traded leads and ties for the next three minutes before Team USA broke on top and managed, despite a Serb rally and fourth tie of the period, to take a four point lead into the second period. Adding another three points to their 21-17 first period lead, the USA took a 38-31 lead into the locker room at the half. Team Serbia stormed back in the third period, slicing Team USA's lead back to four, 57-53, as the third period wound down. Team USA ceded another two points as they lost the fourth quarter, 23-25, to end the game with an 80-78 edge. Crunching the game boxscore to develop some possession-based stats for the game...

						FTA
	Poss.	Eff.	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
USA	79.3	1.01	43.7	43.3	24.0	42.9
Serbia		0.98	48.2	34.6	18.9	60.0

The winning margin derived from field goal attempts, the USA out "attempted" Serbia 63-55, converting three more opportunities (27 vs. 24) than the Serbs. Team Serbia had their chances, especially at the charity stripe, where they had six more attempts than Team USA. But with 25 free throw conversions apiece, the line proved a wash, leaving Serbia's Cvetkovic with a desparation three with four ticks left. Board domination, especially on offense, proved the difference in field goal attempts. While five players, Jackson (31.9%), Hardaway (26%), Lamb (24%), Meyers Leornard (24%) and Young (21%) took most of the shots when each was on the floor, Jackson (50 eFG%), Meyers (66.7 eFG%) and Young (100 eFG%) converted efficiently enough to keep the offense above water. Team USA has to feel good about their standings right now (certainly better than anyone else in Group D tonight), as they have almost certainly (barring a scoring catastrophe tomorrow) punched their ticket to second round preliminary play in Group F. The question is whether they can enter Group F play undefeated (an advantage for medal round consideration)...

Pools of Immediate Interest
Groups C & D standings with one game left to play in day two...

Group C				Group D
	W	L			W	L
Canada	1	0		USA	2	0
Croatia	1	0		Serbia	1	1
Lithuania	1	1		Egypt	1	1
South Korea	0	2		China	0	2

Team China stumbled a second time, losing to Team Egypt by a close four point margin, 100-96 in other Group D action. That outcome is a bit surprising, and will set up an interesting third day of competition in Group D. Team China, if FIBA tie-breaking procedures from 2010 World Championships hold here, have already been eliminated from Group F play, even though they face Team USA tomorrow. Though both Serbia and Egypt will advance (again assuming the point differential versus competition is applied in Latvia), clearly the winner will be in a better position for advancement into the medal round. The Lithuanian U19 team sent Korea o the classification round with a resounding 117-64 win earlier. The Lithuanians will advance to Group F (and a rematch with Team USA) over the weekend, but long term opportunities will hinge on their match-up with Team Canada tomorrow. Today's Team Croatia versus Team Canada game will be worth following, as a Canadian win could set up a knotted group of Group C teams going into the next round; Canada will play Lithuania tomorrow. Crotia holds a 1-0 advantage over Canada in FIBA tournaments, having beaten the Canadians by six (83-77) in 2009. The Canadians and Lithuanians are 1-1 in FIBA tournaments going back to 2007.

Bell Tones
Villanova rising sophomore James Bell started his second game of the tournament and played 26 minutes, scoring four points on 1-5 (0-0, 1-5) shooting from the field and 2-2 from the line. Bell snagged two (defensive) rebounds and two steals for Team USA. Ironically Bell's two steals came very early -- on the first Serb possession of the game -- and very late. Playing the fourth period with four fouls Bell intercepted an Aleksandar Cvetkovic pass with 0:44 on the clock, killing the Serb possession. Though the ball was turned back over 20 seconds later, the Serbs were only able to get one more shot, a missed three by Cvetkovic, as the clock wound down.

Who's Got Next?
Team USA will face off against China tomorrow at 6:15pm local time (11:15 EDST) in Liepaja, Latvia. Team China will play in the first round of classifications (places #13-#16), but Team USA should not take the Chinese lightly. They lost to Serbia by only five, and should morale not be a problem, are in a position to lay an unpleasant surprise on USA's U19'ers if they are taken too lightly. The key would be a big first period lead -- by either squad. If Team USA has a double digit lead, expect Coach Hewitt to rest players in periods three and four. If the game is close (or Team USA is down), Hewitt may be forced to keep his starters on the floor, much like the Serbia game today, longer than he would like. Team USA holds a 5-1 advantage in head-to-head competitions with Team China going back to 1997.