FIBA U19 2011 World Championship -- A Pause Before the Medal Rounds (part 2)

Sorting Out Group F Action
Having exacted revenge for their 33 point drubbing at the hands of Lithuania in a pre-tournament exhibition game, Team USA seemed to sleep walk through three periods of play versus Croatia to close out Group F play. Supporters might rationalize the loss as a meaningless game at the end of the preliminary phase, after all, the USA won the F1 seed the day before, a side benefit of their win over Lithuania. Were the Americans showing their vulnerability, simply exhaling or perhaps exacting a bit more revenge on the Lithuanians complements of FIBA's ranking system? Beating Team USA moved Croatia into a tie with Lithuania for the F2 seed. The Croatians held the tie-breaker, due to their 13 point win, 88-75, over Lithuania on June 30. Serbia earned the last seed in Group F with a decisive 21 point win over Canada. The Group F standings when the buzzer on the USA-Croatia signaled the end of group play...

Group F
	Record				Pts/Poss
	W	L	Pts	Seed	Off	Def	Diff
USA	5	1	11	F1	1.12	0.91	+0.21
Croatia	4	2	10	F2	1.01	0.99	+0.03
Lithuania	4	2	10	F3	1.12	0.89	+0.23
Serbia	4	2	10	F4	1.02	0.96	+0.07
Canada	2	4	8	F5	0.96	1.07	-0.12
Egypt	1	5	7	F6	0.87	1.09	-0.22

What the Possession-Based Metrics Tell Us
The four teams that will advance out of Group F are listed above as "F1" through "F4". The ranking of the six teams that advanced out of Group C & D play to Group F wer well defined (see "...Eighth Final Round Preview") -- unlike the Group E pool, it was clear that several teams performed well in Group C (or D) play (USA, Lithuania, Serbia), while others struggled even with some modest success (Egypt). Many of the same characteristics exhibited in initial group play continued through the Group F cross over games. And again, note the ranking of Croatia and Lithuania (and Serbia). Croatia appears to have benefited from timely wins (versus Lithuania and USA), but not been especially dominant across the board in their play in Group C and Group F. The USA and Lithuania continue to dominate group play, piling up large efficiency margins, comparable to Australia's over in Group E. Though Group F has it's own imbalance, it is less pronounced than Group E's, and there was no single dominant Group F team at the end of Eighth Final Round play. Though like Group E, there seems to be a gap between the teams at the top (USA/Lithuania at >+0.20) and those at the bottom (Egypt/Canada at <-0.10).

How Good is the USA? Lithuania? Croatia?
I compared only the games the four Group F teams played with each other. Granted six games is a small sample, but the games were played over a relatively short period of time, played on (generally...) neutral courts and in a round robin fashion -- every team played every other team in the sample. I came up with these results...

Group E Quarter Final Teams
	Record			Pts/Poss
	W	L	Pts	Off	Def	Diff
Croatia	2	1	5	1.06	1.02	+0.04
Lithuania	2	1	5	1.02	1.01	+0.01
USA	2	1	5	1.08	1.08	+0.01
Serbia	0	3	3	0.95	1.01	-0.06

The competitive gap among the four teams advancing out of Group F is much smaller than the one separating the teams out of Group E. Note the efficiency margin separating Croatia and Serbia (about 0.10) is less than half the margin separating Australia and Poland (0.24), and less than the margin separating Poland from the bottom two advancing teams out of Group E (0.11). I realized Team USA's three games within the mini-conference were all decided by two points, I did not realize the other three teams had somewhat similar results against each other (Croatia's win over Lithuana the exception). I had suggested earlier that Team USA and Team Lithuania may well play a rubber game to decide the match (up). If the four Group F teams are better than their Group E counterparts, that may well come to pass.

Quarter Final Games of Interest
All of them actually, the schedule...

Opponents (seed)		Start
Group E	Group E	Time (EDST)
Poland (E2)	Lithuania (F3)	7:30am
Russia (E4)	USA (F1)	9:45am
Australia (E1)	Serbia (F4)	noon
Argentina (E3)	Croatia (F2)	2:15pm

If the draw was indeed random, then the distribution should have placed (at least) one quality team on each side of the bracket. The barometer game will be the first of the round -- Poland-Lithuania. The Lithuanians have been able to pack the Latvian arenas in Liepaja and Riga with fans as loud as they are partisan. The Poles, however, ought to be able to bring a few fans for this game too, one of two other Eastern European countries still competing close enough to bring enough fans to neutralize the Lithuanian fan-base. Though backup Doyydas Redikas, starting in place of regular Vytenis Cizauska acquitted himself in both the USA and Egyptian games, getting a fully recovered (rolled ankle in the Serbia game July 5) Cizauska back will insure the Lithuanian team is at full strength. A big win by Poland would signal a long day for Group F teams. A big American win in the USA-Russia game (9:45am EDST) will prove little. Comparing Oliver's four factors for each team, the Russians can score, but have problems defending opponents' field goal attempts. And they foul way too often. The American team should be able to hold the Russian conversion rate down, negating Russia's strongest asset. A quick and aggressive-to-the-basket American team should have Team Russia back on their heels early. Though the Americans foul often, almost as much as the Russians, the Russians do not play aggressively enough to capitalize on that vulnerability.

Like the Russian-American game, the Australia-Serbia game will only be significant if it is close (or if it goes badly against the Aussies). The Croatia-Argentina game should go to the Croatians. The Argentine offense is limited, against the better teams in Group E they failed to convert field goals consistently, nor rebound enough to get themselves second chance opportunities. The Croatians concentrate on the defensive boards, so the Argentines will get few second chances. Croatia converts field goals proficiently and values the ball. Argentina does defend the three point line well, so if the Croatians go inside (they tend to favor the three point attempt), they should score often enough to put this one out of reach early. A Lithuanian loss early however, will focus my attention on this game to get a better sense of how weak the "F side" of the bracket actually was.

FIBA U19 World Championship -- USA Squeezes by Lithuania, Takes Control of Group F

USA 107 Lithuania 105
Team USA survived a 13-1 Lithuanian onslaught that lasted through the last minute of regulation and into the first two minutes of overtime, to defeat Team Lithuania by two and take control of Group F play with a 5-0 record. With two ticks left on the clock in overtime and the score knotted at 105, Connecticut's Jeremy Lamb nailed a two pointer that capped a 12-4 USA run in a game labeled by FIBA as the game of the day thereby avenging a humiliating 33 point loss to Lithuania in exhibition play two days before the start of the U19 World Championship. How did it come down to a last shot? With a minute left and a six point cushion, heretofore reliable members of the USA squad seemed to suffer a collective brain freeze as they let an extremely energetic Lithuanian squad back into the game with a 6-0 run. Memphis point guard Joe Jackson committed a turnover that led to a Lithuanian bucket, then Creighton's Doug McDermott took an ill-advised last second shot that missed. Florida's Patric Young missed two free throws (fouled while grabbing the offensive rebound), and Lithuania hit a buzzer shot to knot the score at 94 at the end of regulation. Team Lithuania tacked another 7-1 run on top of their 6-0 run to build a 101-95 lead before Team USA caught their collective breath and went to work putting together a 10-4 run of their own to set up Lamb's heroic last second shot. Jeremy Lamb paced all scorers with a prolific 35 points on 13-23 (5-7, 8-16) shooting from the field and 4-5 from the line. Lithuanian center Jonas Valanciunas paced the Lithuanians with 30 of his own, coming on 11-20 (0-0, 11-20) shooting from the floor and 8-10 from the line. The 6-11 low post player grabbed a monstrous 15 (6-9-15) rebounds to lead all the glass cleaners and post a double-double, one of two recorded by Lithuanians. Four other Team USA squad members, Jackson (19 points), Patric Young (15 points), McDermott (13 points) and Tim Hardaway Jr, himself a last minute hero in the two point win over Team Serbia last Friday, scored 10 points. McDermott and Tony Mitchell tied for most American rebounds, each snagging eight. Three Lithuanians also scored in double digits, Edgaras Ulanovas (29 points), Doyydas Redikas, starting in place of injured point guard Vytenis Cizauskas, scored 29 points and Arnas Butkevicius (10 points). Redikas made the most of his chance to fill in for Cizauskas, grabbing 10 (5-5-10) rebounds, producing the second Lithuanian double-double of the game.

Mulling over the game boxscore to develop some possession-based stats for the game...

						FTA
	Poss.	Eff.	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
USA	84.8	1.12	49.4	40.4	14.7	34.5
Lithuania		1.07	55.5	37.2	19.9	47.9

The pace is adjusted for a 40 minute game, and more comfortable for Team USA than Team Lithuania. Overall the two teams had about 95 possessions for the four periods and overtime. Despite the end-of-regulation hiccup, Team USA used their 95 possessions more efficiently than Team Lithuania. While the Lithuanians "won" on efficient shooting (55.5% vs. 49.4% eFG%), Team USA actually had more opportunities, complements of turnovers (an outstanding 14.7% vs. 19.9%) and ironically, foul shooting. Though Lithuania got to the line more often than the Americans (35 vs 30), they converted only 24 of their attempts, only three more than the Americans (21). Had Lithuania matched USA efficiency at the charity stripe -- 70% -- they would have won by two. Lithuanian point guard Vytenis Cizauskas was a last minute DNP. The 6-2 pulse of the Lithuanian back court rolled his ankle in the Lithuania-Serbia game on July 4, and though not perceived as serious after the game, the condition of the ankle deteriorated during the night. Despite a warmup, Cizauskas was held out by Lithuanian Head Coach Kazys Maksvytis. Here is hoping Cizauskas has a speedy recovery and will be back in action for the medal rounds (if not tomorrow).

Other Group F Play Today

Team				Team	Diff
Canada	91		71	Egypt	+20
Croatia	68		73	Serbia	-5

With their loss to the Canadians, Team Egypt will be consigned to the #9-#12 classification rounds at the conclusion of Group F play. Croatia, which stunned Lithuania to open the tournament a week ago, stumbled against Team Serbia, creating a logjam for second place in Group F. With only four of the six Group F teams scheduled to advance to the Medal Rounds, the question is who will be the last cut? Team Canada, with their win over Team Egypt kept hope alive, and will settle the last spot issue on the court with Team Serbia tomorrow. Group F standings...

	Record
	W	L	Pts.
USA	5	0	10
Lithuania	3	2	8
Croatia	3	2	8
Serbia	3	2	8
Canada	2	3	6
Egypt	1	4	5

FIBA ranks Serbia, the winner over Croatia today lower because of their overall points for/points against margin (10 vs. 9). Serbia holds the tie-breaker over Croatia, so should the Serbs beat the Canadians tomorrow (and the Croatians beat the Americans...), Team Serbia will most likely receive the higher seed going into the Quarterfinal Round Friday. Should Serbia lose to Canada, the two teams will be tied at 3-3, and the Canadians (most likely, especially if they beat Serbia by four or more points) will advance to the Quarterfinal Round (either F3 or F4 on the Team USA site).

Bell Tones
Villanova's wing James Bell logged 23 minutes of play and scored two points on 1-5 (0-1, 1-4) shooting. He grabbed 3 rebounds (all on the Lithuanians' boards) and dished an assist.

Who's Got Next?
Team USA will close out Group F play with Team Croatia, the game scheduled to start at 2:30pm Riga time (7:30 EDST). The Croatians beat Lithuania to open the tournament, but have stumbled against the Serbs and South Koreans. The two countries have faced off five times since 1997, Team USA holding a 4-1 edge. While Team USA is guaranteed the top Group F seed going into the Quarterfinal Round, Croatia will play for their seed (or in some scenarios, survival). Should they beat Team USA they will advance to the Quarterfinal Round with the #2 seed from Group F (F2). Should they lose, the situation becomes...complicated, their fate depending on the result of the Team Serbia-Team Canada game.

FIBA U19 World Championship Preview -- USA & Lithuania

The Rematch...
The USA-Lithuania 2011, Part 2 will be one of the featured games in Riga Tuesday July 5. At the U15-U18 levels the USA men's teams are the presumptive favorites, and had these two squads not met in a pre-tournament exhibition match, most would probably assign Team USA the "favorite role" here. That 33 point loss on June 28 however, coupled with a 29 point loss on the 26th to the Lithuanian U20 team, gave a nasty jolt to USA hopes and expectations to repeat as the U19 champions in Latvia. Were those exhibition games simply growing pains for another mix-n-match national team selected through the two week tryout process, or a foreshadow of performance difficulties once the tournament got underway?

If the exhibition was wake up call to the Americans -- Team USA ran off four straight wins, three by double-digits -- the Lithuanians first outing in the FIBA U19 tournament, a 13 point 88-75 drubbing at the hands of Croatia, was a bucket of cold water. The Lithuanians have won three straight by margins of 53, 43 and 17.

With the cross over round robin play between Group C and Group D teams, both the Lithuanians and Americans have played Team Canada...

	Lith.		USA
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Canada	W	+43	W	+17

The margins suggest the exhibition win margin stands, and that Team USA will have an up stream swim against Team Lithuania.

Lineups, Rotations...
...Coach Hewitt has routinely gone 11-12 deep, using virtually every player on the bench. He has also tended to distribute the playing time in an even fashion, though in the most closely contested game, a two point win versus Team Serbia, Hewitt shortened his rotation by two (Jahlil Carson and Anthony Brown were DNP), and limited minutes for two others (Khyle Marshall and Meyers Leonard), effectively giving himself, despite having two starters in foul trouble, an eight man rotation. Coach Hewitt experimented with the starting five in the two Lithuanian exhibition games, but has settled on the same five for the FIBA tournament so far. The point is manned by Joe Jackson, a 6-0 guard out of Memphis University, while two Big East rising sophomores, Connecticut's 6-6 Jeremy Lamb and Villanova's 6-5 James Bell, take their spots on the wing. Who is the #2 guard and who is the small forward? Both wing spots seem to play interchangeably, Bell is reputed to defend a bit more aggressively while Lamb tends to take more three point attempts. Both rebound and chip in assists. Hewitt has Doug McDermott, a 6-7 forward out of Creighton at the #4 and 6-9 Patric Young, a bfc out of Florida at the #5. Though he will reach deep into the bench when the game is in hand, Michigan's 6-5 shooting guard Tim Hardaway Jr tends to see time early, often in the first period and provides scoring from both inside and outside the three point line. 6-9 Tony Mitchell, a rising sophomore at North Texas along with Meyers Leonard, a 7-0 Illini split the rotation with Patric Young, though two of those three might be in simultaneously when Team USA needs more size under the basket. Look for Keith Appling (6-1, Michigan State) and Jahii Carson (5-11, Arizona State incoming freshman) to spell Jackson at the point. Jackson is a stud, and if the game is close Hewitt may decide to ride that horse home. Khyle Marshall, a 6-7 forward out of Butler has seen minutes in three of the four games so far.

Lithuania's Coach Kazys Maksvytis has tinkered with the starting five for each of the Team Lithuania's four FIBA U19 games, but count on 6-2 Vytenis Cizauskas to start in the backcourt, most likely the #1, with 6-7 forward Edgaras Ulanovas and 6-11 Jonas Valanciunas in the front court. Valanciunas, starter at the #5 and Cizauskas power the Lithuanian attack as an inside/outside combination. Maksvytis has also started 6-4 Doyydas Redikas and 6-4 Deidivas Pukis in the back court at times this tournament (and even if he does not start, expect them to see minutes). At 6-7 both Zygimantas Skucas and Rolandas Jakstas have started in the front court and wing. Again, start or no, both will see playing time, along with 6-6 Arnas Butkevicius, 6-8 Egidijus Mockevicius and 6-8 pf Tautvydas Sabonis.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
...Team Lithuania has averaged 85.7 possessions through four tournament games, among the highest in the field. That is lower than the scorching pace set in their exhibition game with Team USA (about 93 possessions). 85+ possessions is no doubt due to the open game fostered by the large winning margins the Lithuanians have managed. Team USA has seen it's possesion rate drift up to 80 per game (average). A 90+ possession rate would be fatal for Team USA, as it implies a lot of missed field goal attempts (and few offensive rebounds). A possession rate in the 84+ range would not be shocking, but probably not a good sign for Team USA. A "Four Factors" comparison when Team Lithuania has the ball...

When Lithuania has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Lithuanian O	53.3	20.2	39.6	34.2
American D	37.2	19.1	28.7	30.8

The key for Team Lithuania is efficient scoring by Valanciunas and Cizauskas. Both have had cold stretches, but some combination of Sabonis, Skucas, Redikas and/or Ulanovas has been able to step in with shots and points. Team USA has been very good at defensing the shot, one of the better teams in the field at shutting down three point shooters (James Bell?), so this strength-on-strength matchup between the teams will be a critical indicator on who will control the flow of the game. The Lithuanians have been a bit lax with the ball (see turnover rate), but make up for that with strong offensive rebounding. The Americans have been strong on shutting down second chance opportunities, so we see another strengh-on-strength matchup. On the other hand, the Americans have not been especially aggressive at challenging for the ball (see their defensive turnover rate above), so though the Lithuanians are vulnerable, it is not clear that Team USA can exploit that weakness. The "Four Factors" look at Team USA's offense versus Lithuania's defense:

When the Americans have the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
USA O	53.4	17.8	37.3	28.9
Lithuanian D	41.3	18.4	25.2	25.7

This offensive/defensive lineup suggests there are two areas, turnover rates and getting to the line (FTA/FGA) that are consistent between Team USA's offense and Team Lithuania's defense. These areas will most likely not decide the game. Two of the other "factors", shooting efficiency and rebounding USA missed field goals, do clash, suggesting these will be the areas that will decide how easily the Americans can put points on the board. Team USA does a good job of scoring, and looks to a combination of Jackson, Lamb, Young, McDermott, Bell and Hardaway to provide inside and outside conversions. The team is not particularly effective slashing to the basket (out of an offensive set), and takes care of the ball -- they should get their shots off, but if they miss will they get that second chance to reset and shoot again?

Finally...
...Assuming an average pace for the tournament field of about 77 and an average efficiency of about 101, the estimated pace would be in the neighborhood of 90 (not good news for the USA squad), with about a five or so point win for Team USA. There is, however, no question the field is extremely unbalanced and virtually certain that the random draw that assigned groups was not an even distribution of teams (remember the plethora of 2-1 teams in Group E?), so the projection should be taken with a very large grain of salt. The key may well be fouls, an issue in the USA-Lithuania exhibition. In addition to putting the Lithuanians on the line for additional scoring opportunities, a large foul imbalance would also put critical members of the American squad on the bench for potentially large stretches of the game. Not a good sign should that repeat from the first meeting. For the Lithuanians, another loss would give them (at least) two as the field is seeded for the medal rounds (no question the loser tomorrow will still qualify for the medal round), no doubt matching Team Lithuania with a relatively stronger quarter final opponent from Group E. This game should be a good measure on how far this U19 USA squad has come in the three weeks they have been together.