Oh Canada! Part 4: Player Efficiencies

A four game run may be bit light to look at (possession-based) efficiency statistics, but I decided to crunch the numbers and take a look. The offensive & scoring numbers look like this:

Player	Min%	Poss%	Shot%	ORtg	eFG%	PPWS	FTRate	FTMRate
D Anderson	32.5	20.6	18.6	134.3	70.8	1.50	58.3	50.0
S Clark	45.6	18.4	18.7	80.0	44.1	0.96	35.3	23.5
J Colenda	9.4	4.1	10.7	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	0.0
D Cunningham	49.4	25.0	24.4	104.4	50.0	1.15	70.8	54.2
C Drummond	43.1	18.1	11.7	111.0	60.0	1.22	170.0	100.0
C Fisher	51.3	21.0	10.8	114.0	77.3	1.63	118.2	100.0
M Grant	50.6	15.1	19.9	150.6	75.0	1.53	10.0	10.0
A Ott	18.1	25.6	30.5	59.6	40.9	0.70	36.4	0.0
A Pena	51.3	21.3	22.6	78.6	56.5	1.09	8.7	0.0
R Redding	37.5	16.5	17.4	101.7	46.2	0.93	15.4	7.7
S Reynolds	55.0	24.9	24.7	176.2	98.1	1.90	51.9	40.7
C Stokes	56.3	18.7	25.9	134.8	67.2	1.37	6.9	6.9

My offensive rating calculation biases in favor of assists (and against offensive rebounders...), so Grant, Fisher, Reynolds and Redding's ORtgs may be a little high while Cunningham, Pena, Drummond and Clark's may be a little low (compare their ORtgs & PPWSs to get a sense of the differences...). But for estimating and getting a general sense of their play, these numbers will suffice. A few quick impressions:

1. Drummond & Fisher got to the line a great deal relative to the number of FGAs they took (check their FTRates). Note they did not (comparatively speaking...) take a lot of shots when they were on the floor (in the range of 10% - 12%, definitely marginal -- less than even a role player), but the relatively high number of fouls suggests the Canadians had problems coping with their respective offensive games...that could be a good sign for the season.
2. Their (relatively low) FTRates (and rebounding percentages -- see below) suggest that Grant, Pena, Redding and Stokes are back court/wing players. On site spectators say Pena was playing a bit tentatively. Maybe that explains his lack of contact and free throw opportunities.
3. Eight players logged 40.0% or more of the available time at their positions. Two other (Redding and Anderson) logged >30.0% (but <40.0%) of the available time at their positions. I suspect those 10 will see time early in the season. The schedule running up to the Old Spice Classic is a little abbreviated -- Bloomsburg (exhibition), Stoney Brook and Bucknell -- so the fans may see 10 or more players in each of those games as the staff settles on a rotation.
4. Given the level of competition, PPWSs <1.0 (note those instances where the PPWS is <1.0 the field goal efficiency -- eFG% -- is also <50.0) should be a little disconcerting -- those men just did not shoot well. Clark's, Redding's and Ott's shooting problems did not jeopardize the team's chances for victories because each had a (comparatively) small role in the team's offense. Redding took "role player" level possessions and shots (<17.0 or so), while Clark was a borderline "regular". Ott consumed comparatively large proportions of both possessions and shots, but played relatively few minutes.

The rebounding and defensive efficiency stats:

Player	Min%	OR%	DR%	ARate	TORate
Dwayne Anderson	32.5	13.8	20.1	32.3	16.2
Shane Clark	45.6	9.9	17.5	8.6	21.6
Jason Colenda	9.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Dante Cunningham	49.4	15.9	10.3	3.0	12.1
Casiem Drummond	43.1	7.8	20.2	23.2	13.9
Corey Fisher	51.3	0.0	8.5	34.3	37.7
Malcolm Grant	50.6	2.2	4.3	37.3	18.7
Andy Ott	18.1	12.4	32.0	0.0	15.4
Antonio Pena	51.3	8.8	12.7	3.4	30.4
Reggie Redding	37.5	3.0	17.4	51.8	46.0
Scottie Reynolds	55.0	0.0	13.2	27.3	16.4
Corey Stokes	56.3	2.0	12.9	13.9	20.9

OR% and DR% represent the percentage of available offensive (OR%) and defensive (DR%) rebounds the player was able to collect while he was on the floor. For defensive rebounding 20.0 is a very good number (the average in the Big East last season among players with 40.0 or more of the minutes in their respective positions was around 14.0). For offensive rebounding 10.0 is a very good number (the average in the Big East last season among players with 40.0 or more of the minutes in their respective positions was around 6.0). Turnover rates (TORate) and assists (ARate) are per 100 possessions (to establish a comparative standard for all players). A few observations about the freshmen:

1. Corey Fisher had a typical freshman tour. He did a few things well (assists -- ARate was 34.3, shooting, getting to the line), a few things poorly (TORate was 37.7, no offensive rebounding) and somethings very tentatively (despite good shooting he took comparatively few shots relative to the number of possessions -- 10.8). The rate at which he got to the line suggests he gave his defenders a very difficult time.
2. Malcolm Grant had a very good tour. Those who suggested he appeared "more ready" at this point have a good deal of support in the numbers. His shooting was accurate (eFG, PPWS) and he was comfortable taking the shot (compare Grant's Shot% to Fisher's) when it was available. Grant also had a terrific ARate (37.3 -- according to Ken Pomeroy's Villanova Scout Page the best ARate in D1 last season was 47.0; Scottie, with a 30.6 was ranked 69^th), as did Redding (51.8!), Anderson (! 32.3) and Fisher.
3. Corey Stokes played well within the offense. Note his Poss% and Shot% are around 20.0, suggesting he functioned within the offense and took "his share" of the possessions/shots available. He shot the ball well (see his eFG & PPWS), though given the relatively few free throws to FGAs, it appears he took jumpers and most likely stayed out around the 3 point line, rather than putting the ball on the deck and penetrating, to score his points. His rebounding was less than I hoped and he might also work to limit turnovers. His shooting was terrific; had Reynolds not shot the lights out in Ottawa and the Raven's Nest, the talk around the 'Nova Nation would be Corey Stoke's shooting.
4. Antonio Pena had a pretty good tour. He was comfortable taking his his shots and possessions (see his Poss% and Shot%). His shot making was accurate, but the turnovers killed him (TORate was 30.4 -- he lost about 3 in 10 of his possessions).

Overall I suspect the staff had to be pleased with those performances. There is much to work on over the next 6 weeks, but there is an excellent talent-level with which to work. Among the returning players there were few surprises, Scottie shot out the lights in Ottawa; Dante pulled down offensive rebounds like Bump did while shooting very well; Shane Clark, hobbled by knee problems last season, showed some offense (though with a bit of rust) and rebounded well, suggesting he had regained his mobility. Of the other returning players:

1. Dwayne Anderson posted some strong numbers in the time he played. Granted about half of his PT was taken against Queens University (10 points & 10 rebounds in 25 minutes), he showed comparable stats in the other three games (13 points & 3 rebounds in 27 minutes). Anderson will face much stronger competition for playing time this season.
2. Reggie Redding's tour was, aside from his ARate (and defensive rebounding), largely a struggle. He continues from last season to struggle with his (see his eFG% & PPWS) shot. And his strong assist performance was largely negated by a high turnover rate. Reggie performed well In the structure offense the staff used in the Carleton University game (the first game of the tour). Redding dished out 5 assists (though shooting 0-4, 1-2, 1). In the less structured games against Ottawa and the Carleton All-Stars Redding rediscovered his shot (5-9, 0-0, 12), but had diffuculty involving the rest of the offense (4 assists to 5 turnovers & he fouled out versus the Carleton All-Stars).
3. Casiem Drummond showed a good deal of consistency in the middle. His shot dropped as he played within the offense. He rebounded well (could do a bit better on the offensive boards) and showed some assist capabilities (ARate was 23.2, strong for a front court player).

Of the ten players who played the most minutes in Canada, Drummond, Redding and Anderson received the fewest minutes. All three should be in the rotation at least through the early part of the season (the run-up to Orlando? through December?). Who remains in the rotation, and how much time he/they get after that may well determine the look of, and prospects for this season's team.

Oh Canada! Part 3: Player Summaries

I am posting the summary stats for each of the team members who saw minutes in Ottawa. The player stats (given the blog margins...) will be presented in three groups -- a general background (Games played, minutes), shooting (offense?) and a third table with rebounds (offensive, defensive and total), assists, turnovers, blocks, steals and personal fouls. Given the questions & discussions about the roles several players will have on this year's team, I was very curious to see how the minutes were allocated among the individual team members.

Player	Min	GP
Dwayne Anderson	52	4
Shane Clark	73	3
Jason Colenda	15	2
Dante Cunningham	79	3
Casiem Drummond	69	4
Corey Fisher	82	4
Malcolm Grant	81	4
Andy Ott	29	2
Antonio Pena	82	4
Reggie Redding	60	3
Scottie Reynolds	88	3
Corey Stokes	90	4

For those wondering about Scottie's minutes next season, know he logged an average of 29.3 minutes per game (mpg). He sat for the second game in the set (against the Queens Golden Gaels). The stats confirm what those fans who made the trip observed -- Fisher and Grant did log about the same number of minutes. Antonio Pena also logged minutes in the low 80s, no doubt the staff wanted to see these freshmen (redshirts and trues) as much as the average Villanova fan. The surprise is Corey Stokes. Honored by McDonalds as an HS All-American, invited to the U19 tryouts and generally recognized by the scouting services as the highest ranked HS baller in Villanova's entering class, nevertheless, most Nova fans had shown greater anticipation about Corey Fisher's debut as a Wildcat than Corey Stoke's. Stokes, despite what seemed to be first game jitters against Carleton (5 minutes, 2 fouls, no points on 0-2 shooting), put together three very nice efforts in the games that followed. And he in fact finished with the most minutes played out of the entire squad. He played practically the entire Queens game (38 minutes) and averaged about 28.3 mpg over the last 3 games -- almost as much as Scottie (see above). I was not surprised that Jason Colenda (the Wildcat's latest walk-on) logged only 15 minutes in two games, but I was surprised that Andy Ott, despite rumors of a few dings did see only 29 minutes in just two games. I understand the staff may have seen little need to risk further injury on an exhibition tour. Reggie pulled a solid 20 mpg for the 3 games in which he appeared. Like the other starters/significant returning players from last season, he was held out of the Queens University game to keep him fresh for the Ottawa game later that day. As for offense:

	Overall		3 Pt		2 Pt		Free Throw
Player	FM	FA	FM	FA	FM	FA	FM	FA	Pts
D Anderson	7	12	3	5	4	7	6	7	23
S Clark	7	17	1	5	6	12	4	6	19
J Colenda	0	2	0	1	0	1	0	0	0
D Cunningham	12	24	0	1	12	23	13	17	37
C Drummond	6	10	0	0	6	10	10	17	22
C Fisher	7	11	3	5	4	6	11	13	28
M Grant	13	20	4	8	9	12	2	2	32
A Ott	4	11	1	4	3	7	0	4	9
A Pena	13	23	0	2	13	21	0	2	26
R Redding	5	13	2	6	3	7	1	2	13
S Reynolds	20	27	13	16	7	11	11	14	64
C Stokes	13	29	13	27	0	2	2	2	41

That Scottie led all scorers is hardly shocking (though his average of 21.3 caught my eye). That the next two scorers were the freshman Stokes and Junior Dante Cunningham is a bit of a surprise. Cunningham appears to have picked up from his mid-season form, though he may have backslid a bit on his free throws. Stokes, a wing guard/forward who started slow, showed very good point production in the last three games. Malcolm Grant, the third guard brought in this year, showed a greater inclination to shoot than fellow freshman Fisher, and Grant also had a slightly higher accuracy (at least from inside the 3 point arc). Pena, Drummond and Clark's scoring numbers (all averaged about 5 - 7 ppg) suggest there may be more offense in the frontcourt than in prior seasons. If this tour is a predictor for next season, it appears that Scottie, working off the ball more than last season, will serve as a very effective first option on offense. Cunningham and Stokes (when they are available) will be effective 2^nd (inside) and 3^rd (outside) options. Grant, Fisher, Clark, Pena and Drum virtually guarantee that the Wildcats will have 4 - 5 realistic scoring options on the floor at any one time. As for the rebounding, steals, blocks, etc.:

Player	OR	DR	TR	Ast	TOv	PF	Blk	Stl
D Anderson	4	9	13	6	3	1	0	7
S Clark	4	11	15	2	5	6	1	2
J Colenda	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
D Cunningham	7	7	14	1	4	10	2	3
C Drummond	3	12	15	5	3	10	3	2
C Fisher	0	6	6	10	11	9	1	3
M Grant	1	3	4	8	4	7	0	3
A Ott	2	8	10	0	2	7	0	0
A Pena	4	9	13	1	9	9	1	6
R Redding	1	9	10	9	8	11	0	6
S Reynolds	0	10	10	10	6	6	0	7
C Stokes	1	10	11	4	6	5	0	1
Team	1	2	3		3

Frankly it is a bit disquieting that no one averaged a double-double against this competition. Given Cunningham's scoring he would have been the most likely candidate. But on average, he was outrebounded by both Shane Clark and (little used) Andy Ott. Overall rebounding stats were lower than I anticipated, Ott and Clark averaged about 5 rebounds per game while Cunningham had an even more anemic 4.7 average. The 'Cats have been effective at rebounding over the past 4 - 5 seasons, but the tour results suggest this may be an area that requite attention and additional work before the start of the season. A few other observations:

1. Dwayne Anderson had a very productive run with comparatively few minutes. Dwayne tied Scottie for most steals, though he did it in 3/5 the amount of time alloted for Scottie. Those steals were distributed across all 4 games (1-2-3-1), not concentrated against the relatively weaker Queens University squad. In addition to steals, he was 5^th for defensive rebounds, but showed a very good DR% (about 20%) for the amount of time he played. His distribution of 2 point to 3 point FGAs was fairly even, suggesting he is diversifying his game a bit more than last season. The question, given the amount of time he played, is whether this progress comes a bit late.
2. Andy Ott played very little, due at least initially, to a slight injury. Ott was one of the red shirted front court players that many have been anxious to see play this season. He was held out of 2 games and saw extensive time in only the Queens game. That the Queens game is the only one in which both he and walk-on Jason Colenda saw double digit minutes, Unless something happens in practice I suspect Ott will see only very occasional minutes this season.
3. Junior Frank Tschuisi was held out of all four games. He is rumored to have an injury.
4. Of all the 'Cats, Reggie Redding had the most uneven performance. His 5 assist, 3 steal, 2 rebound effort in the first game (against the Carleton Ravens) was marred by an 0-4 shooting night. He scored a single point on a 1-2 night at the line. He followed his 12 point (5-6; 2-2; 3-4) scoring outburst against the Ottawa GeeGees (which also included 5 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals) with an 0-3 0 point, 1 assist and 2 turnover effort against the Carleton All-Stars, cut short when he fouled out in 19 minutes of play.