Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Oh Canada! Part 4: Player Efficiencies

A four game run may be bit light to look at (possession-based) efficiency statistics, but I decided to crunch the numbers and take a look. The offensive & scoring numbers look like this:

D Anderson32.520.618.6134.370.81.5058.350.0
S Clark45.618.418.780.044.10.9635.323.5
J Colenda9.
D Cunningham49.425.024.4104.450.01.1570.854.2
C Drummond43.118.111.7111.060.01.22170.0100.0
C Fisher51.321.010.8114.077.31.63118.2100.0
M Grant50.615.119.9150.675.01.5310.010.0
A Ott18.125.630.559.640.90.7036.40.0
A Pena51.321.322.678.656.
R Redding37.516.517.4101.746.20.9315.47.7
S Reynolds55.024.924.7176.298.11.9051.940.7
C Stokes56.318.725.9134.867.21.376.96.9

My offensive rating calculation biases in favor of assists (and against offensive rebounders...), so Grant, Fisher, Reynolds and Redding's ORtgs may be a little high while Cunningham, Pena, Drummond and Clark's may be a little low (compare their ORtgs & PPWSs to get a sense of the differences...). But for estimating and getting a general sense of their play, these numbers will suffice. A few quick impressions:

  1. Drummond & Fisher got to the line a great deal relative to the number of FGAs they took (check their FTRates). Note they did not (comparatively speaking...) take a lot of shots when they were on the floor (in the range of 10% - 12%, definitely marginal -- less than even a role player), but the relatively high number of fouls suggests the Canadians had problems coping with their respective offensive games...that could be a good sign for the season.
  2. Their (relatively low) FTRates (and rebounding percentages -- see below) suggest that Grant, Pena, Redding and Stokes are back court/wing players. On site spectators say Pena was playing a bit tentatively. Maybe that explains his lack of contact and free throw opportunities.
  3. Eight players logged 40.0% or more of the available time at their positions. Two other (Redding and Anderson) logged >30.0% (but <40.0%) of the available time at their positions. I suspect those 10 will see time early in the season. The schedule running up to the Old Spice Classic is a little abbreviated -- Bloomsburg (exhibition), Stoney Brook and Bucknell -- so the fans may see 10 or more players in each of those games as the staff settles on a rotation.
  4. Given the level of competition, PPWSs <1.0 (note those instances where the PPWS is <1.0 the field goal efficiency -- eFG% -- is also <50.0) should be a little disconcerting -- those men just did not shoot well. Clark's, Redding's and Ott's shooting problems did not jeopardize the team's chances for victories because each had a (comparatively) small role in the team's offense. Redding took "role player" level possessions and shots (<17.0 or so), while Clark was a borderline "regular". Ott consumed comparatively large proportions of both possessions and shots, but played relatively few minutes.

The rebounding and defensive efficiency stats:

Dwayne Anderson32.513.820.132.316.2
Shane Clark45.69.917.58.621.6
Jason Colenda9.
Dante Cunningham49.415.910.33.012.1
Casiem Drummond43.17.820.223.213.9
Corey Fisher51.30.08.534.337.7
Malcolm Grant50.62.24.337.318.7
Andy Ott18.112.432.00.015.4
Antonio Pena51.38.812.73.430.4
Reggie Redding37.53.017.451.846.0
Scottie Reynolds55.
Corey Stokes56.32.012.913.920.9

OR% and DR% represent the percentage of available offensive (OR%) and defensive (DR%) rebounds the player was able to collect while he was on the floor. For defensive rebounding 20.0 is a very good number (the average in the Big East last season among players with 40.0 or more of the minutes in their respective positions was around 14.0). For offensive rebounding 10.0 is a very good number (the average in the Big East last season among players with 40.0 or more of the minutes in their respective positions was around 6.0). Turnover rates (TORate) and assists (ARate) are per 100 possessions (to establish a comparative standard for all players). A few observations about the freshmen:

  1. Corey Fisher had a typical freshman tour. He did a few things well (assists -- ARate was 34.3, shooting, getting to the line), a few things poorly (TORate was 37.7, no offensive rebounding) and somethings very tentatively (despite good shooting he took comparatively few shots relative to the number of possessions -- 10.8). The rate at which he got to the line suggests he gave his defenders a very difficult time.
  2. Malcolm Grant had a very good tour. Those who suggested he appeared "more ready" at this point have a good deal of support in the numbers. His shooting was accurate (eFG, PPWS) and he was comfortable taking the shot (compare Grant's Shot% to Fisher's) when it was available. Grant also had a terrific ARate (37.3 -- according to Ken Pomeroy's Villanova Scout Page the best ARate in D1 last season was 47.0; Scottie, with a 30.6 was ranked 69th), as did Redding (51.8!), Anderson (! 32.3) and Fisher.
  3. Corey Stokes played well within the offense. Note his Poss% and Shot% are around 20.0, suggesting he functioned within the offense and took "his share" of the possessions/shots available. He shot the ball well (see his eFG & PPWS), though given the relatively few free throws to FGAs, it appears he took jumpers and most likely stayed out around the 3 point line, rather than putting the ball on the deck and penetrating, to score his points. His rebounding was less than I hoped and he might also work to limit turnovers. His shooting was terrific; had Reynolds not shot the lights out in Ottawa and the Raven's Nest, the talk around the 'Nova Nation would be Corey Stoke's shooting.
  4. Antonio Pena had a pretty good tour. He was comfortable taking his his shots and possessions (see his Poss% and Shot%). His shot making was accurate, but the turnovers killed him (TORate was 30.4 -- he lost about 3 in 10 of his possessions).

Overall I suspect the staff had to be pleased with those performances. There is much to work on over the next 6 weeks, but there is an excellent talent-level with which to work. Among the returning players there were few surprises, Scottie shot out the lights in Ottawa; Dante pulled down offensive rebounds like Bump did while shooting very well; Shane Clark, hobbled by knee problems last season, showed some offense (though with a bit of rust) and rebounded well, suggesting he had regained his mobility. Of the other returning players:

  1. Dwayne Anderson posted some strong numbers in the time he played. Granted about half of his PT was taken against Queens University (10 points & 10 rebounds in 25 minutes), he showed comparable stats in the other three games (13 points & 3 rebounds in 27 minutes). Anderson will face much stronger competition for playing time this season.
  2. Reggie Redding's tour was, aside from his ARate (and defensive rebounding), largely a struggle. He continues from last season to struggle with his (see his eFG% & PPWS) shot. And his strong assist performance was largely negated by a high turnover rate. Reggie performed well In the structure offense the staff used in the Carleton University game (the first game of the tour). Redding dished out 5 assists (though shooting 0-4, 1-2, 1). In the less structured games against Ottawa and the Carleton All-Stars Redding rediscovered his shot (5-9, 0-0, 12), but had diffuculty involving the rest of the offense (4 assists to 5 turnovers & he fouled out versus the Carleton All-Stars).
  3. Casiem Drummond showed a good deal of consistency in the middle. His shot dropped as he played within the offense. He rebounded well (could do a bit better on the offensive boards) and showed some assist capabilities (ARate was 23.2, strong for a front court player).

Of the ten players who played the most minutes in Canada, Drummond, Redding and Anderson received the fewest minutes. All three should be in the rotation at least through the early part of the season (the run-up to Orlando? through December?). Who remains in the rotation, and how much time he/they get after that may well determine the look of, and prospects for this season's team.

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