Preview -- Maryland

Looking For a Big Score...
When Coach Gary Williams brings his Maryland club North to Philadelphia Saturday, he has to hope that despite an unfamiliar 20 degree temperature, the trip will will give them a warm glow, espicially on Selection Sunday. The ACC is down this season, and Maryland, though touted as one of the better teams in that conference, has to be concerned that a 0.500 conference record and about 20 or so wins, will not sufficiently impress the Selection Committee. In addition to closing the book on last season's BB&T Invitaitional with this return date, Maryland would like very much to notch win #12 and add a Top 20 road win to this season's resume. Against Pittsburgh, Illinois, Temple and Duke the Terrapens have come close. Villanova has other ideas. The Wildcats are ranked #7 this week and starting on Monday, will spend much of the balance of January on the road with conference play. A win over a well regarded ACC team at home would be a nice way close out their home stand. The teams have played four games in a series that goes back to 1985 (they played twice the year Villanova won the National Championship), with Villanova holding a 3-1 edge...

The teams have played one common opponent, South Florida. And better yet, both were visitors within the last fortnight...

	Nova		Maryland
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Temple	W (H)	+4	L (H)	-3

Maryland's best OOC win was a 23 point road victory over Penn State (Big Ten, 10-6, 3-2, RPI #59). Best (only) ACC conference win is their road win at Wake Forest (7-10, 0-2, RPI #256), a 19 point win over a rebuilding Demon Deacon squad. Every one of the Terps five losses was to a Top 50 RPI squad. The average margin was 5.4 points. Villanova's lone loss, to Tennessee, like Maryland's losses, is to a Top 50 RPI team, but the 'Cats also have several Top 50 RPI wins (Louisville, Temple) for the Selection Committee. Villanova is currently tied for the lead in the Big East Conference standings and projected preseason to be in the thick of a very competitive race for the conference title. While none of Marylannd's losses is a deal-breaker for the Selection Committee, should the Terps drift through the balance of season and finish towards the middle of the conference, relying on the conference's relative standing to pull them over the bubble will be risky. A resume out of conference win on the other hand...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Replacing Greivis Vasquez, Landon Milbourne and Eric Hayes has not been easy, Vasquez was a productive (and in his senior season, efficient) scorer, but Milbourne and Hayes provided, along with Vasquez, leadership and maturity of the type that takes time to develop. While it appears, through the Terps first 16 games anyway, that Coach Williams is generally satisfied with what he has to work with, there is still a bit of tweaking, even as conference play commences. Coach Gary Williams, a veteran of 33 years of Division head coaching, has gone 10 and 11 deep into his rotation, but tends to allocate 10 or more minutes to a cohort of eight or nine players.

Look for the Maryland mentor to start a three guard back court that will include senior Adrian Bowie (6-2, 190 lbs), a Montrose Christian graduate, who will man the point, junior Sean Mosley (6-4, 210 lbs) a Baltimore native and freshman Terrell Stoglin (6-1, 185 lbs) to start alongside Bowie and fill the wings. Senior guard Cliff Tucker (6-6, 205 lbs) started 11 games earlier in the season and will most likely log over 25 minutes of court time. Freshman Pe'Shon Howard (6-3, 195 lbs), a prepster out of Los Angles by way of Oak Hill Academy, has also logged two starts in that last wing spot. Howard has averaged over 17 minutes of playing time per game, having appeared in all 16 of Maryland's games. Senior Dino Gregory (6-7, 230 lbs), another Baltimore native, will start alongside sophomore Jordan Williams (6-10, 260 lbs), who will function as a foward/center. Neither tends to foul (they average less then three fouls per game), and each logs, on average, > 26 minutes per game. Look for forwards sophomore James Padgett (6-8, 225 lbs) and freshman Haukur Paulsson (6-6, 190 lbs), along with JUCO junior center Berend Weijs (6-10, 200 lbs) check in at some point -- all three have appeared in virtually every one of Maryland's games this season. Coach Williams has the depth to tweak his rotation either longer or shorter to match-up and counter the Terrapins' opponents.

Villanova's starting five -- Corey Fisher and Maalik Ways as a two-headed point, Corey Stokes, who has emerged as the scoring leader this season will take the third guard spot on the wing, with a front court that features Antonio Pena and Mouphtaou Yarou. Pena is a senior who has started off and on, for the past three seasons, will man the four, while Yarou, a sophomore who mans the paint posted a career-high 18 points to go with his second double-double, in the 'Cats last outing, against Louisville. Villanova's rotation can go to 11, but nine, those five players and freshman wing James Bell, sophomores Dom Cheek, Maurice Sutton and Isaiah Armwood, is more typical, especially in a closely contested game.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Both teams are comfortable pushing the pace, as each typically averages more than the Division 1 average for possessions. Expect possessions in the mid-70s (74-75). Villanova's pace has trended up for the past several weeks, and assuming the Terps cannont get behind Villanova's defense for easy buckets, the staff may given the Wildcats' depth, give a green light to turn this into a track meet. Pomeroy projects 74 possessions for this game; he has been a bit low for Villanova's last 3-4 games. A "Four Factors" comparison when Maryland has the ball...

When Maryland has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Terp O	51.7	19.7	38.6	38.5
Wildcat D	43.4	19.5	26.3	33.2

The Terps' offense is ranked #74 according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report, good, but not among the elites in Division 1. Maryland does everything well, but one element (only) stands out -- they rebound their misses very well, which compensates for the fact that they effectively convert about 1 in 2 of their FGAs. The Terps' are just below average for D1 at converting three point attempts (33.3%, #198), but rank in the lowest 10th percentile for free throw conversions (63.1, #306). Close games away from home are problematic for the squad and staff. Villanova has become particulary good at defending the shot, their eFG% defense (43.4%) is ranked #20 in D1. Rebounding at the Maryland end of the court is a straight up strength-on-strength match-up. If Williams or Tucker has to sit with fouls (taken during the rebounding battle...), expect the Terp offense to stall a bit as the other players adjust. If one or the other team deviates from their normal substitution pattern, consider the impact of the sub on the team's rebounding. Maryland's offense has had to deal with only two other opponents with better adjusted defensive efficiency ratings, Duke and Temple, and the Terps lost both games. The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Maryland's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	51.8	18.2	36.7	46.3
Terp D	41.7	23.5	29.5	30.3

The Terp's adjusted defense is 81.8, ranked #1, the elite defense in Division 1. They are elite shot defenders (good at defending both the two and the three, but ranked among the best at defending the two). They are strong (but not among the 20 best) at the other three factors -- a high turnover rate, a strong rebounding unit and they do not foul much. Expect strength-on-strength match-ups on Villanova's boards, with "defensive" fouling a potential crucial element. Villanova looks for just over 25% of their points from the line. If Maryland does not put the 'Cats on the line, Villanova will have to find those points elsewhere. Maryland is one of the best shot blocking units in D1, while Villanova's offense is ranked #262 at getting their shots blocked...another area where lost potential points will have to be made up elsewhere.

Want to Beat Maryland? Then...
Shooting is always critical, make them miss and convert your own, is the motto here...
1. When the Terps are held to an eFG% of < 50% they are 2-3. When their opponent converts (eFG%) at 45% or greater, the Terps are 2-5 (a very telling number).
2. Taking away second chance opportunities seems to cause Maryland real problems. In those games where Maryland was held to the D1 average (33.3%) or fewer for offensive rebounds, they are 1-3. When their opponents have been able to rebound to the D1 average or better on their misses, the Terps are 2-3.

Finally...
...Pomeroy projects a horse race for this game, with each team having 74 possessions. And the Wildcats taking a five point decision. The game will be televised by CBS, and Aaron Bracy sent along a note that he will be covering the game live from the Wells Fargo Center, he will post a recap with press conference information to the Philahoops.com blog.