Thursday, April 2, 2009

On PASE -- Conference Wins Through the Regional Finals

Checking back on conference PASE through the 1st four rounds. This is the same table assembled for an earlier post, but I have highlighted those conferences which were still "active" in rounds 3 & 4...

ConferencePASEto Dte%PASEIn
Sun Belt0.5012.000
Big 128.18111.340
Big Ten7.1381.121
Big East16.43171.032

Each conference's PASE is, as pointed out by Dan Hanner's PASE post, the sum of the anticipated wins by seed history. While the Big East, Big Ten and ACC have received 7 bids (see table above), their respective PASEs differ because their bids were for different seeds. I have sorted the data by Wins %PASE, derived by dividing the number of wins so far ("Wins to Dte") by the conference's PASE.

Dearly Departed, Survivors & Conferences
The Big 12's remaining contenders (Kansas & Oklahoma) exited over the past weekend, but the conference has to feel pretty good about this tournament. If the conference that produced last season's National Champion felt under appreciated with only 6 bids this post season, they surely felt justified when wins in the Sweet Sixteen helped them exceed their PASE by a fair margin. Michigan State will have to win the National Championship game if the Big Ten, mysteriously awarded 7 bids (one more than the Big 12), is to overtake the Big 12. would have to win the National Championship to distract attention away from the ACC's extremely disappointing showing this season. Even if North Carolina takes the next 2 games the ACC will still come up short, gaining only 9 of the anticpated 10.85 wins projected by their seeds awarded to their 7 bids. That comes out to a %PASE of 0.83, still below the relatively modest showing from the PAC-10 conference. Fans of the Big East conference will be disappointed if neither of the conference's surviving representatives (Connecticut and Villanova) make it to the Championship Game. The Beast of the East has, however, performed to expectations by winning 17 games to this point. From here on out the conference is playing with house money. For Conference USA, the past 2 weeks have become a nightmare. In the decade before the conference saw many of it's best basketball programs (Cincinnati, DePaul, Louisville and Marquette) depart for the Big East, taking South Florida with them, they routinely took 4 bids to the NCAAs. In a very good year they could expect up to 6 bids, putting the conference at the head of the mid-majors and in the same league as the Pac-10 and SEC, two power conferences. They received only a single bid this season, the lowest number in nearly 20 years, watched that team, Memphis, lose before "making their seed" and on Wednesday, watched the best coach in the conference leave for University of Kentucky. Memphis, indeed the whole of CUSA, has some thinking to do this off season.

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