Preview -- St. John's

Villanova and St. John's renew their series Sunday, as the Red Storm travels to the Pavilion for the 101st meeting between the two teams in a series that dates back to the 1922-23 season, the Wildcat's 3rd season of record keeping. The two teams met annually (with the single exception of 1935...) until the 1939-40 season when Villanova, uneasy about the influence of gambling on the NCAA schools, stopped scheduling opponents into the Philadelphia Convention Center (Philadelphia's largest indoor arena, a facility operated by the same interests as New York City's Madison Square Garden). The series resumed in 1954, around the same time as the start of the Big 5, an occasion when Philadelphia's other Convention Center schools (La Salle, Temple and St. Joseph's) also reconciled with Villanova and Penn. If Temple is the longest running series with Villanova (Temple records games dating back to 1905), St. John's is Villanova's most frequently played opponent. St. John's leads the series 58-42 (.580), but Villanova has run off 4 straight wins, and is 7-3 in the last 10...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
The 'Cats and Red Storm (Big East, 10-6, RPI #124) have no common opponents so far (they will as the season progresses). The Johnnies' best win so far (by far...) is their 71-65 home victory over Notre Dame (Big East, 12-4, RPI #61) last Saturday. Next best has to be the Cornell (Ivy, 8-6, RPI #111) game. St. John's is 1-6 against Top 100 RPI teams -- all of their losses to date have been to Top 100 teams. Their worst loss was on the road against Providence (Big East 11-5, RPI #80)...

Lineups, Rotations...
...St. John's Coach Norm Roberts experimented with his starters and rotation early on in the season when he had the luxury of easier opponents. By New Year's he had pretty much settled on Malik Boothe (Soph, 5-9, 185lbs) & Paris Horne as his starters at #1 and #2 respectively. Then Malik Boothe followed senior forward Anthony Mason (6-7, 209lbs) to the trainer's table. Into the breech stepped freshman Quincy Roberts (6-5, 190lbs) to pair with sophomore Paris Horne (6-3, 180lbs) give the Red Storm their back court. The pair has started the last five games.

Coach Roberts faced a similar set of challenges staffing the Johnnies' front court. Going into the season senior Anthony Mason Jr and sophomore Justin Burrell were the favorites to start. Mason is injured and has not played since the Boston College game (the 3rd game of the season). This is the second consecutive season Mason has lost significant time to injury. He may have to redshirt. Burrell missed two games near the end of the year, but returned to the rotation 5 games ago (versus Miami). His fellow sophomores, DJ Kennedy (6-6, 208lbs), a graduate of Pittsburgh's Schenley HS and former teammate of Pitts' DaJuan Blair, along with Sean Evans (6-8, 242lbs), a Philadelphian, have proved more reliable than Burrell and Mason. Burrell (6-8, 235lbs), Evans and Kennedy will start in St. John's front court. Expect the Storm's starting five (Roberts, Horne, Kennedy, Burrell and Evans) to take at least 75% of the minutes, though in their 4 Big East games to date those 5 have taken at least 80% of the available minutes. Relief comes in the form of freshman guard TyShwan Edmondson (6-4, 175lbs) in the back court, and redshirt sophomore forward Rob Thomas (6-6, 235lbs) along with (true) sophomore Dele Coker (6-10, 270lbs) in the front court. All have gotten consistent minutes (Edmondson especially since Boothe's injury), often logging >9 minutes per game. Deeper bench contributors include senior center Tomas Jasiulionis (6-11, 249lbs) and freshman center Phil Wait (7-1, 245lbs), though an appearance by either would suggest a blowout is in progress.

Villanova will start Scottie Reynolds in the back court and Dante Cunningham in the front court. Beyond those two Coach Wright will look to one of sophomores Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes or junior Reggie Redding to complete the Wildcat's back court. Senior Dwayne Anderson and sophomore Antonio Pena will most likely start alongside Cunningham in the front court. Senior Shane Clark rounds out the front court rotation. Clark has not started this season. The rotation has not gone deeper than those eight since the La Salle game back in mid December.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
St. John's under Norm Roberts has become a defense-first team that punches the ball inside and plays at a steady, if measured, pace. Until this season. Whether the Red Storm is pushing the ball up the court (better ball handlers with Quincy Roberts, Malik Boothe and Paris Horne?) or becoming more confident finding a shot earlier in their offensive sets can only be determined by comparing game films from season to season. But they are getting (according to Pomeroy) about 68.6 (adjusted according to Pomeroy's New Scout Report, slightly above the average for D1 (about 67.3), and between 3 and 5 more possessions than they have gotten over the past 3 or so seasons. Their (raw) pace through their first four Big East games (about 69.7) suggests the higher pace is not the after effect of their OOC schedule. Offense-to-defense comparisons (John's to 'Cats) shows a few interesting statitiscal matchups...

When St. John's has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Johnnie O	47.9	20.7	38.2	35.3
Wildcat D	44.7	22.0	29.1	34.3

St. John's does not look for 3 point shooting much, as 3FGAs account for about 1 in 4 of their FGAs. There is a reason for this -- they hit about 1 in 5 of their 3FGAs, one of the worst percentages (#324) in all D1 ball. They do not, however, appear to miss those points much, as about 1 in 6 points come from 3 point FGMs, again, one of the lowest dependencies (#335) in D1 ball. They distribute scoring opportunities fairly evenly among Horne, Burrell, Evans and Kennedy (when they are on the court). Aside from Roberts, most everyone in the rotation will get a shot sooner or later. Horne and Kennedy are their outside threats, though neither is a sharpshooter. There is a battle shaping up under the Red Storm's basket. Each team is ranked #38 (near elite-level) in Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%). The Johnnies are used to pulling down better than 1 in 3 misses for a second chance, while the 'Cats are used to holding opponents to less than 3 in 10 second chances opportunities (via rebounds). Expect Rob Thomas (when he is on the court) and Sean Evans to lead the way, but the entire St. John's back court contingent (Horne, Kennedy, Roberts & Edmondson) are better than average rebounders. Matching up for the Wildcats will be Cunningham and Pena, both ranked in Pomeroy's Top 500, and the rotation of Redding, Stoke, Anderson and Clark, all of whom are better than average (according to Pomeroy) on the defensive boards. Given the Storm's mediocre eFG% (47.9, ranked #199) versus Nova's "pretty good" shot defense (declining as the Big East season progresses...), those second chance opportunities (or lack of same) may become crucial to the outcome. The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus St. John's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	49.9	17.8	36.6	41.8
Johnnie D	47.1	21.8	34.2	33.4

Villanova's field goal efficiency (eFG%) has been declining steadily over the course of the Big East season, this game will again match a team with a better field goal defense than Villanova's eFG%. Whether this translates into another ugly shooting performance may depend on how Reynolds, Stokes, Anderson and Clark are shooting from the outside, as the Storm is a bit below average on 3 point defense (ranked #201). Caring for the ball to maximize possessions, a Villanova trademark over the years, should not be tested against St. John's, as the Red Storm is not given to forcing large numbers of turnovers. And St. John's may not give the Wildcats too much of a struggle under Villanova's boards. Second chance points should be available if Pena, Clark and Anderson can neutralize Kennedy, Burrell and Evans (and Thomas & Coker when they are in)...

Want to Beat St. John's? Then...
While their offense is better this season, their defense has taken a (small) step back. Consistent with Villanova's first 3 Big East opponents, field goal efficiency plays the dominant role in separating the winner and the loser. And according to Pomeroy's Game Plan analysis of Oliver's Four Factors for each of Villanova and St. John's, offensive rebounding should also influence the outcome.
1. Defend their shooters. St. John's has recorded an eFG% of 50.0 or less in 10 games this season (not particularly good). They are 4-6 in those games. Hold them to <48.0 and they drop to 2-4.
2. Control the defensive boards. If they don't shoot well it stands to reason they need second chances (the Nova Nation has seen this with the 'Cats...), and sure enough, when St. John's has been held to <37.0 on their offensive boards (OR%) they have gone 1-5. This is especially important to the Storm when you consider they don't shoot 3s.
3. Convert FGAs. St. John's is 1-5 when opponents score an eFG% >48.4. Villanova has shot at that level in 5 games this season, going 4-1 in those games (the exception was Marquette). When shooting >44.0 they have gone 6-2.
4. Control the offensive boards. When Villanova's OR% has been >34.0 (just above the D1 average), they are 9-0. When St. John's allows opponents to get that OR%, they have gone 1-5.

Finally...
...The Johnnies bring a team whose starting line up bears more than a passing resemblence to Villanova's -- 2 6-8ish forwards in the front court, two (or so) 6-5/6-6ish guard/forwards on the wing and scorers in the back court. If the 'Cats play a more deliberate game, the Red Storm looks to score in transition & punch it inside at every opportunity. And both have been accused of offering indifferent/ineffectual defense of their 3 point lines. The difference is that Nova will shoot the three (and have a few players who, though a bit streaky, can hit at that distance...). That, and the home court, should help the Wildcats. Antonio Pena needs to stay on the court against St. John's. Nova does not need his scoring (though points from anyone in addition to Cunningham & Reynolds is greatly appreciated) as much as they need his rebounding.

Coach Wright will, should the game be competitive throughout, use between 7 & 8 players. And if Corey Stokes or Dwayne Anderson can find the range, expect Nova to maintain a comfortable scoring margin (and the more accurate forward to draw the larger portion of minutes).

Calculations indicate the game should be played for about 66 possessions (Villanova's comfort zone), with Villanova on top by about 14 points. Nova has had difficulty performing to expectations, especially against teams they are rated to beat by double digits. While I expect the 'Cats will take this decision (which will bring the series to 58-43 St. John's), it will stay close if St. John's plays hard throughout.

Ken Pomeroy's New Look

Very quietly over the past weekend Ken Pomeroy changed the look of his team pages. He decided to consolidate the data from his Scouting Report Page, the Schedule Page and Game Plan Page into a single page, to promote, as he referred to it, "one stop shopping" for the surfer looking for data about their teams of interest. The page is a bit crowded, but easier to use than the older versions. As for new stats, Pomeroy offers three for the individual players, and provides another boost for a handful of metrics he has featured on the team Scout Report Pages for the past 2 or so seasons.

New Team Stats...
1. Strength of Schedule -- offensive & defensive efficiencies of opponents. Compares them to the D1 average and ranks each within D1. Food for thought (for those who believe Nova has faced a very weak schedule so far...) -- opponent's composite offense is ranked #98 in D1 (that's upper 30%). But composite defense is ranked #200, which suggests that the Wildcat's offense may be even weaker than suspected.
2. Pythagorean Winning %'s for all opponents and for OOC opponents only. Pomeroy has publised these numbers on his Ratings Page, so these are technically not "new", but not grouped with his efficiency stats before.
3. Bench Minutes -- Percentage of minutes allocated to non-starters. I was curious about this also, and have been tracking Min% of the starters since the beginning of the season. Pomeroy understandably uses an estimation, based on minutes allocated to those not among the top five earners of minutes -- Pomeroy assumes the top 5 minute earners are the starters (he bolds them in the "Player Stats" section of the page), and the others are subs. Which is of course yields a deceptive result, especially when the coaching staff has not settled on a starting 5. So far Min% of non-starters is 29.8%.

New Player Stats...
1. TS% -- Pomeroy calls this variation of John Gasaway's PPWS "True Shot" (evocatcive of John Holloway's True Shot stat). Pomeroy computes PPWS and then divides it in half (and treats the value as a percentage). He suggests the modification scales the value to a 2FGM%, much like eFG%. Maybe, I am curious to see a listing of Big East players...
2. Fouls Committed per 40 minutes (FC) -- an interesting variation on fouls per minute (and minutes per foul). The surprise is how relatively foul free Dante Cunningham has been this season. Dante had something of a foul-prone reputation coming into this season. At 4.2 fouls per 40 minutes, Antonio Pena appears to be the "Starter Most Likely to Sit", which does not surprise me. Shane Clark's foul-prone behavior is most likely due to his being a sub -- he can be more aggressive coming off the bench for limited minutes. He may be a designated fouler -- the one who is tasked with giving a change of possession foul when the Wildcats need to get the ball at the end of a half or game. Anderson, also according to Pomeroy's stat, a player who would not finish a game, is a bit of a surprise.
3. Fouls Drawn per 40 Minutes -- this is another estimated stat, based on a set of assumed behavior and D1 averages. No surprise that Scottie is a Top 500 (#327) player at drawing fouls, but frankly I think the number is a bit low for him. Cunningham and Fisher are also Top 500 in this category.

I am putting the link to the team page over on the sidebar.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: St. Peter's, Niagara & Turnovers

by Ray Floriani

JERSEY CITY, NJ -- Sometimes these numbers just reach out and grab you. I covered the Niagara-St.Peter’s game, a MAAC Conference contest at St. Peter's Yanitelli Center, on Friday night. Niagara won 62-55 in a game where St.Peter’s just would not go away. The Peacocks got their preferred pace, the numbers of possessions stayed in the low sixties. Niagara had only 13 turnovers, a number that seems at first glance, pretty well controlled, but in a 62 possession contest those turnovers yield a less impressive 21% TO Rate. St.Peter’s had 20 turnovers that contributed in great portion to Niagara’s fine defensive efficiency. The offensive rebounding percentages for both teams are noticeably impressive. Any team with a 40% mark is really pounding the boards. Both these teams went at it hard and fast underneath. The offensive board percentage also explains, for the most part, why Niagara shot 28 free throws and St.Peter’s 21.

Team	Poss	Eff.	TO%	OR%
Niagara	62	100	21	51
St. Peter's	64	86	31	54

**************************************************************

Sunday, I had the honor of officiating a girls high school showcase game at Monmouth University. My game had two ranked teams, St.John Vianney(NJ) and Oak Hill(Va). Vianney won 69-53. For Villanova fans, their program was well covered and represented as courtside among the coaches in attendance were Nova head coach Harry Perretta and assistant Heather Vulin.

Louisville Post Game -- If Only

On a day when the team hit it's season average for free throws, the Wildcats win by 3. On a day when the last man at the free throw line shoots to his season average, the Wildcats win by 2. The Big East regular season schedule just became a bit more difficult as the Wildcats squandered their own sterling defensive effort, shutting down the #90 ranked D1 offense, and squeaking out more offense than the #2 conference defense usually gives up. To lose by a single point. At the line for the win with 0:05 on the clock. With three point-blank shots on the basket, even after the missed FTs. This one left a mark...

While a stunned silence appears to have settled over most of the Nova Blogosphere (or are they still out drinking the memory away? I don't blame the IBBW Blog crew or Pete over at Let's Go Nova...) Tim over at the Nova News Blog has been doing what I have been doing most of the afternoon -- replaying that last 1:30 while applying a million or so shudda/cudda's to the scenario. If you get the impression his very good recap/analysis -- "Nova Loses a Heartbreaker" feels a bit obsessive, just understand that writing can be informative and insightful even as it serves as a form of therapy. And VUhoops.com comes through with a brief recap with links and video, "Louisville 61: :60 Villanova". Mike Sheridan has (reliably) posted his post game notes (over at the Official website) managed to find a positive note -- the comeback from 11 down in the second half. And of course there is the posted AP wire story that gives a hat tip to Dante's 21 point day. And the traditional box score, available at Villanova's website.

The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Louisville
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	35.6	34.9	70.5
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	73.1	97.5	85.2		95.6	80.3	88.0
eFG%	34.5	45.8	39.6		41.9	41.9	41.9
TORate	19.7	20.1	19.9		22.5	17.2	19.9
OR%	21.1	36.8	28.9		38.9	26.1	31.7
FTA/FGA	24.1	91.7	54.7		25.8	29.0	27.4
FTM/FGA	20.7	50.0	34.0		25.8	6.5	16.1
ARate	60.0	60.0	60.0		58.3	66.7	62.5
Blk%	6.9	12.5	9.4		9.7	3.2	6.5
Stl%	11.3	8.7	10.0		11.2	8.5	9.8
PPWS	0.80	0.99	0.90		0.98	0.79	0.88

Half Time Adjustments...
The Cardinal's Andre McGee dropped one last 2 on the Wildcats at the half-time buzzer to build their lead back out to 8. Louisville jumped out to a 11 point lead (11-22) before Nova ran off 11 points to knot the score at 22 each. Louisville then replied with another run, this one 12-4, to close out the half. The preview posted a day or so ago noted that shooting efficiency (eFG%) and offensive rebounding rates (OR%) might serve as keys to a win (or loss). The red & green highlighted sections in the table (above) monitor how well Villanova performed in those categories, relative to season-long numbers. The Wildcats posted a terrible shot efficiency and offensive rebounding rate in the first half, McGee's FGM with 0:00 on the clock was a dagger. Without adjustments on offense they would be buried, or so it seemed. The Wildcats actually turned in a credible defensive effort (relative to the number of possessions...) in the first half. The defensive rating, was comparable to their first half versus the Hall Tuesday night (but not as good as their first half against Marquette). The problem was they didn't make their own shots. The second half was a turnaround...on defense -- the Cats actually improved their defense, driving the Ville's points per possession down to .803 (80.3), better even than their first half effort against Marquette. That 8 point deficit was difficult to erase though, given the 'Cats produced only .975 points per possession (97.5). If only they had gone into half time down 6...

Notes
1. Dante Cunningham scored the game high 21 points. This is the 8th time Dante has led the team in scoring. If his points were prolific, they were not necessarily efficient, recording an eFG% of 47.4 & a PPWS of 1.00. He did take about 39.8% of the team's shots while he was on the floor (about 90% of the game). The Cardinals prepared for Dante (on the boards anyway) as they shut him off the offensive boards, and limited him to a 13.6% DR% (0-5-5).
2. Antonio Pena scored in double digits (14 points on 4-8, 6-14 shooting) for the 6th time this season. His eFG%, 50.0, was very good, his PPWS, at a less impressive 0.96, reflected his relatively unproductive time on the line (6-14). He grabbed 8 rebounds (3-5), proving yet again that he is the most consistent complement to Dante Cunningham. Pena's OR%/DR% for the game was 9.3/14.3, a bit below his season-long numbers (10.9/19.0), but considering the competition (Williams, E. Clark, Samuels, etc.), not bad.
3. Scottie Reynold's 11 points were efficiently produced, reflecting no doubt, his secondary role (3rd option) in the offense. Scottie's eFG% was 50.0 (tied for best on the team with Pena), though his PPWS, at 1.31 was the best Wildcats today, unusual given his the very large role in the offense that he has often taken this season. Samardo Samuels, with a PPWS of 1.38, was the game best today.
4. Both teams controlled their defensive boards, though Louisville did a slightly better job of it. Cardinal forwards Earl Clark and Terrence Williams posted DR% of 28.7 and 33.1 respectively, Top 15-level performances.
5. The Cardinals are known for their athleticism, characterized by their strong steal and blocking rates, but the Wildcats actually had the better of it today, as the side-by-side comparison in the by-halves splits above demonstrate. I suspect that (for blocks...) Connecticut & Georgetown and (for steals...) Marquette & Seton Hall might compete with Louisville. I was a little surprised to see Villanova do so well.

Ref Notes
JD Collins, Ed Haney and Les Jones ran an "average" home game for Villanova. The Wildcats in particular got to the line a good deal in the 2nd half (see the Wildcat's 91.7 FTA/FGA above). Unfortunately for the Wildcats they were unable to convert consistently -- note the 91.7/50.0 2nd half split and the overall split, 54.7/34.0. The Wildcats are now 2-2 in games run by these guys. This was Ed Haney's first Villanova game this season.

Preview -- Louisville

The Wildcats host the Cardinals of the University of Louisville at noon on Saturday. Villanova is 3-1 in Big East play versus Louisville, and 5-6 overall in the series that goes back to 1950. Prior to entering the Big East, Villanova and Louisville met more in post season play (). . ...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
...Increasingly rare, but true in this case, the 'Cats and Cards have not played a common opponent yet. Not even from the Big East.

Louisville's (10-3, RPI #36) good wins include Lamar (Southland, 5-4, RPI #73), Mississippi (SEC, 9-5, RPI #82), UAB (CUSA, 9-5, RPI #40) and (for their fans especially) Kentucky (SEC, 11-4, RPI #75). Louisville was projected (rightly or wrongly) as a Top 10 team this season, so virtually any loss may be considered "bad", but each of their three losses was to a team whose RPI is (currently) in the Top 100...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Louisville's front court was set on October 15 (start of fall practice) -- Coach Pitino has started freshman Samardo Samuels (6-8, 240lbs) at the #5, beside his veterans junior Earl Clark (6-9, 220lbs), often considered the #4, and senior Terrance Williams (6-6, 215lbs), variously identified as a wing (#3?), point forward, and sometimes a #2. Appropriate adjective aside, Williams has, to some degree, deferred to his front court mates, Samuels and Clark for offense. While he will take a bit more than 20% of the shots & possessions when he is on the court (and he logs over 80% of the minutes for his position, so expect to see him for 35 or so minutes), his assist rate (26.8, ranked #194, per Ken Pomeroy's Scout Report Page) suggests he will work to get Clark, Samuels (and the back court) involved in the offense. Coach Pitino will most likely call on the freshmen George Goode (6-8, 205lbs) and Jarod Swopshire (6-7, 215lbs) when he wants to rest his front court.

The back court starters have been considerably less predictable, as Coach Pitino has at various times dipped into a pool that includes, for the point, senior Andre McGee (5-10, 180lbs) and junior Edgar Sosa (6-1, 175lbs), and for the wing (#2?, #3?) junior Jerry Smith (6-1, 200lbs) and sophomore Preston Knowles (6-1, 170lbs). Lately (the past 2 games), Coach Pitino has settled on Sosa and Smith as his starters, though he sat both points (McGee and Sosa) and started both Knowles and Smith versus UNLV. Knowles, McGee, Smith and Sosa take between 40% (Knowles) and 52.9% (Smith) of the minutes so far. Next off the bench will most likely be transfer junior Reginald Delk (6-4, 175lbs).

Louisville typically run up to 12 players through their games, with 9 drawing double digit minutes. Over the past 3 - 4 games freshmen Terrence Jennings (#4/#5, 6-10, 225lbs) & Kyle Kuric (#2, 6-4, 175lbs), along with sophomore Lee Steiden (#3, 6-4, 185lbs) and senior Will Scott (#2/#3, 6-3, 185lbs) have logged a few minutes apiece. In close games (UNLV, Ky, Minnesota...), the rotation may remain deep (11-12), but only 7 or so will see more than 9 minutes of play.

Villanova will start Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena in the front court, with Scottie Reynolds in the back court. The remaining starting spots will most likely go to two of Corey Fisher, Dwayne Anderson, Corey Stokes, Reggie Redding or Shane Clark. Redding and Anderson started most recently against Seton Hall; Redding and Stokes started against Marquette, and Anderson & Stokes started the last three OOC games. Clark has not started at all this season, but expect to see him for 20 or so minutes.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
The two teams have very similar numbers on both offense and defense. The Cardinal's offensive and defensive ratings are 105.4 (adjusted, ranked #90) and 82.7 (adjusted, ranked #4) respectively. The Wildcat's offensive & defensive ratings are 109.2 (adjusted, ranked #56) and 89.3 (adjusted, ranked #23) respectively. Texas' defense aside, this is the highest rated squad the Wildcats have faced. And Kentucky's defense aside, the same can be said of Louisville's challenge. The Cardinals play for about 70+ possessions (the deeper rotation?), while Nova seems to prefer a more deliberate pace, about 65 possessions.

When Louisville has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Cardinal O	50.3	18.9	35.2	24.2
Wildcat D	45.0	22.2	29.1	34.8

Villanova's shot defense (eFG%) has been rising slowly since the beginning of the Big East regular season (Marquette, Seton Hall), expect it to be challenged yet again by Louisville's outside shooters. The Cardinals have taken about 39% of their FGAs from beyond the arc -- look for Williams, McGee, Smith, Sosa and Knowles to fire away when the opportunity presents. Smith and Knowles are brutally efficient with their shot, though Smith appears to defer to others when he is playing. Knowles will fire away (about a 25% shot%), but needs someone to get him the ball after he finds his spot. Since 3 of 5 FGAs go inside however, expect Clark, Samuels and Williams to get a lot of touches (and FGAs). Of the three, Samuels is the most accurate, hitting at a 55% clip. In the battle of the boards, expect Pena, Anderson and Cunningham to be challenged by Samuels (a Top 100 OR% rebounder according to Ken Pomeroy) and Clark for Louisville's misses. Louisville takes pretty good care of the ball -- their TO% (18.9) ranks them #72 in D1. The problem appears to be in the Louisville back court, as both Sosa and McGee (and wing Jarod Swopshire) are the most likely to lose the ball. Knowles and Smith by contrast (mostly due to the catch-and-shoot style of offense) are least likely to turn it over. The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Louisville's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	50.6	17.6	37.3	31.6
Cardinal D	42.8	23.3	26.8	36.2

Note the matchups on shooting and shot defense. Nova's eFG% has declined since the Temple game, and this Louisville team is ranked among the elite (#20) for defense. They are especially tough on inside scoring, limiting opponents to a 42% FGM%. Lousiville likes to force turnovers (they are ranked #57, according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report Page); look for Williams, Knowles, McGee and Smith to lead the way. Nova's best offensive rebounders, Pena, Anderson & Cunningham will be challenged by Williams and Clark. Samuels is good (above average), but not an elite defensive rebounder at this point. Villanova looks for points from the free throw line as a necessary part of their offensive production; Louisville does tend to the mean for fouls. If it comes down to free throws, Louisville might have a problem...

Want to Beat Louisville? Then...
Shooting remains the single most important feature for each team...
1. Effectively shut down Louisville's shooters. The Cardinals are 0-3 in games where their eFG% is 41.5 or lower. Villanova has held opponents to an eFG% of 41.5 or lower 5 times (they are 5-0 when they do).
2. The Wildcats have to make their shots. The 'Cats are 10-0 when they have an eFG% of 46.6 or above. When they shoot 46.5 or below they are 3-2. When Louisville holds their opponents to an eFG% of 44.6 or lower they are 8-1. If their opponents shoot (eFG%) 47.8 or higher, the Cards are 3-2.
3. Nova must control their defensive boards. The Wildcats are 9-0 when they hold opponents to less than the D1 average (about 33%). The 'Cats drop to 4-2 when their opponents grab >34.0 (higher than the D1 average).

Finally...
...The Cardinals look to Clark, Williams, Knowles and Samuels to provide a balanced (inside/outside) attack. Villanova looks to Cunningham on the inside and Reynolds, who ironically appears to be more efficient from the outside so far this season, for an uncomfortably large part of their offense. Someone (or a couple of someones...) must provide a third option on offense.

Pace and offensive efficiency calculations point to a game that will be played for about 68 possessions (Louisville friendly), with the Wildcats taking a 1 point game (63-62). This one is clearly within the home court advantage range. At 55% confidence, the game is close to a pick'em.

Seton Hall Post Game -- The Rock

The Big East Conference was clear with Seton Hall when the Pirates entered the conference in 1980:  "Get a larger facility!" The Pirates continued to play their exhibitions and a few of their OOC games in Walsh Gym on their South Orange campus, but virtually all conference games were moved to the 20,000 seat arena in the Meadowlands, named at various times after a popular former state Governor, an airline company with a history of settling labor disputes with generous contracts that it would void later with Chapter 7 filings and a clothing manufacturer that favors reptilian monikers for it's sports line. In 2007 the Pirates evacuated coastal marsh in favor of a sports facility in New Jersey's largest city (and the seat of the dioceses which chartered and founded the university), a facility whose corporate sponsor favored a geological formation as it's corporate logo and nickname. Tuesday night was Villanova's first trip to the Pirate's new home. And if the experience was not uniformly exhilarating, the outcome was very satisfying, as the Wildcats came away 89-85 winners in an overtime nail biter.

Chris over at the IBBW Blog was first to his press with his recap/summary, "Nova Survives Hall Scare, Wins in Overtime". Chris' brief recap can be forgiven; he might be the only Nova blogger west of the Mississippi to check in. And VUhoops.com posted a brief recap with links and video, "Villanova 89: :85 Seton Hall". Both the Nova News Blog and Mike Sheridan's post game notes (over at the Official website) focus (appropriately) on Scottie Reynolds' second 40 point game, a milestone achieved only 5 other times by Villanovan basketball players. Scottie's game was also noted in the posted AP wire story. And in addition to the traditional box score, available at Villanova's website, CO_HOYA, the blogger over at Hoya Prospectus Blog provides an HD box score modeled on Ken Pomeroy's experiment from the 2007 season. The HD box is quite an achievement, a resource I will use in this and future post game analysis. More on it below and in a following post. Many thanks go out to CO_HOYA for his work on behalf of all Big East teams.

The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Seton Hall
	1st	2nd	OT	Game
Pace	37.5	32.1	8.4	78.0
	Offense					Defense
	1st	2nd	OT	Game		1st	2nd	OT	Game
Rating	93.3	127.8	155.7	114.2		98.6	121.5	107.8	109.0
eFG%	43.5	47.1	50.0	45.8		40.2	53.1	31.3	44.4
TORate	21.3	12.5	0.0	15.4		8.0	15.6	1.3	11.5
OR%	40.9	50.0	33.3	44.4		32.0	50.0	33.3	38.3
FTA/FGA	45.2	22.9	160.0	42.3		12.2	15.6	50.0	17.3
FTM/FGA	25.8	22.9	160.0	33.8		9.8	15.6	50.0	16.0
ARate	58.3	46.7	100.0	55.2		50.0	31.3	50.0	40.6
Blk%	3.2	2.9	0.0	2.8		0.0	9.4	12.5	4.9
Stl%	10.9	12.2	0.0	11.5		2.6	9.6	0.0	5.7
PPWS	0.93	1.06	1.48	1.04		0.85	1.13	0.91	0.97

The Way Back...
The first half was a back and forth battle that saw Villanova go up by as much as 7 before the Hall stormed back with a 17-8 run that gave the Pirates a 2 point lead going into the intermission. It could have been worse; a foul by walk-on Matt Cajuste gave Dante Cunningham an opportunity to get two FTMs with the clock stopped. The preview posted earlier this week noted that shooting efficiency (eFG%) and offensive rebounding rates (OR%) might serve as keys to a win (or loss). The red & green highlighted sections in the table (above) monitor how well Villanova performed in those categories, relative to season-long numbers. The Wildcats posted better shot efficiency than the Pirates in the first half (but below their own season-long average), but their turnover rate (21.3) undermined that advantage. If the first half bore the characteristics of a defensive struggle (though the 'Cats performed below defensive expectations), the second half was another horse race...that Villanova happened to win as they erased that 2 point deficit from the first half. Nova's defensive rating took e a hit from the Pirate's performance in the second half and overtime periods. The first half was a defensive struggle as both squads had trouble scoring consistently. Control of the boards worked well on the offensive side. The team posted some of it's best numbers of the season. Those who noted season-high rebounding numbers for Villanova wings and front court players are not wrong. A stronger effort on the defensive side would have put the Wildcats over the top in regulation. The defensive rebounding percentage (game-long 38.3, second to Texas as the worst of the season).

Notes
1. Scottie Reynolds had another career night. Not only was he prolific in his scoring, but very efficient as well, posting an eFG% of 73.5. His PPWS (1.60) reflects in part the terrific night he had at the line, going 15-17 from the charity stripe. The staff recognized the trend during the game, as they put the ball in his hands for each of the Wildcat's last 3 possessions in regulation. The strategy of allowing Scottie to either score or get fouled was not successful as Nova's best scorer went 0-3 from the field and 2-2 from the line, getting 1 (offensive) rebound and committing a turnover. The 'Cats ceded a 5 point lead during that span. Scottie recouped in OT, though he went 0-2 from the field he was 4-4 from the line, assisted Dwayne Anderson's 3 point field goal and grabbed a defensive rebound on a 3 point miss from Jeremy Hazell.
2. Overlooked (except by Mike Sheridan's notes and Nova News) in the hoopla surrounding Scottie's game was Dante Cunningham's sixth double-double of the season, a milestone he achieved (as noted by Nova News...) in the first half. The Hall had no answer for Nova's pf...until the second half. Adjustments saw Dante go 3-11 from the field after the intermission, though he remained the second option on offense.
3. Dwayne Anderson had an outstanding night on the boards, and in posting 9 points, nearly scored his own double-double. Anderson snagged 13 boards (7-8), posting an OR% of 19.4 and a DR% (defensive rebounding rate) of 21.3, both outstanding numbers.
4. Antonio Pena also had a tremendous night on the boards, solidifying his position as the rebounding complement to Cunningham. This night Pena grabbed 19.8% of the defensive rebounds to Cunningham's 13.3% of the offensive boards. Pena also contributed 7 points to the Villanova offense, posting an eFG% of 50.0 (his PPWS, 0.89, was disappointing, but due to a poor, 1-4 perfomance, at the line).
5. The ARate (55.2 for this game -- orange highlights in the table above) provides more evidence that, late second half possessions aside, the "Take 'em" offense is a thing of the past. The assist percentage is actually below Villanova's season-long average (59.1). Season-ending numbers for 2005 and 2006 had Villanova's assist rate at <50.0.

Ref Notes
If the crew's (William Burr, Ed Gaffney & Michael Stephens) combined record (5-0 in Villanova games) might put them in the running for "Most Want to See Run a 'Nova Game", specifics seemed uneven. Overall they called an about average (for a Villanova road game) 38 fouls. The distribution of fouls however, favored the Wildcats, unusual for Nova on the road this season. For Seton Hall however, the FTRate (42.3 game-long, see halves table above) is consistent (a bit below average actually) with Seton Hall's numbers (46.6).

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Courtside for Nova at Seton Hall

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK, NJ - Thoughts while covering Villanova-Seton Hall courtside:

* It’s a win. Sure Seton Hall was handled easily by their first two Big East opponents but in this conference road wins, or any other wins for that matter, are cherished like precious gifts. Villanova had to struggle but in overtime they made the plays and Scottie Reynolds made the free throws to get the W.
* Nova led by eight with four minutes to go and proceeded to score one field goal, by Antonio Pena in the lane. Again, overcoming a situation like that to get the win is what counts.

* Respective high scorers Scottie Reynolds (40 points) and the Hall’s Jeremy Hazell (26 points) put on quite the show.Using the NBA efficiency index (FG + FT + R + A + PTS + S + Blk) - (missed FG + Missed FT + TO), produced this side-by-side comparison for Scottie Reynolds and Jeremy Hazell.

	Eff.	per min
Reynolds	37	.860
Hazell	15	.333

Hazell’s efficiency is a not as high due to a 9 of 24 mark from the floor. Actually, the Hall sharpshooters’ halftime numbers were

	Eff.	per min
	13	.650

Why the drop for Hazell? Credit the dogged defense by Reggie Redding following the intermission.

* Turnovers. Both clubs valued the ball. Villanova in fact, had only 4 turnovers following halftime.

	TO%
Nova	16%
Hall	11%

* Reynolds simply had a vintage night. He penetrated, hit from the perimeter (5 of 8 from three), the line (15 of 16) and made a succession of huge plays en route to a 40 point night. Good evening to step it up as a number of NBA scouts were in attendance.
* Gonzalez was encouraged by John Garcia’s 12 board night, but ‘Nova’s Dante Cunningham had another sterling performance with 21 points 13 rebounds, and a number of them coming in crucial junctures.
* Quote : "Everyone here who follows the Big East is not surprised. People around the country were but with nine ranked teams they follow the conference closer and are beginning to understand St.John’s beating a Notre Dame, these things happen all the time in this league. Hey, it’s fun and you never have to worry about getting up for a game." - Villanova coach Jay Wright