Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: NJIT Notches #2

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK, NJ – That’s two in the books and it’s not even December. NJIT earned its second win of the season with a thrilling 56-51 decision over Wagner at the Fleischer Athletic Center.

A 72 Possession Contest:

Off.
Eff.
Wagner71
NJIT78

The four factors...

eFG%FTA/FGAOReb%TO%
Wagner33163224
NJIT37272924

The factors are very close with a noticeable difference being free throw production and eFG in NJIT’s favor. Highlander coach Jim Engles stressed in pre-game to contest the perimeter, even if it meant sacrificing something in the paint. Wagner’s Michael Orock (22 pts 14 rebounds) was effective inside but the Seahawks of the NEC could manage only 3 of 22 (14%) from beyond the arc.

The turnover rate was high for NJIT but not a difference as Wagner had similar problems in that category. Actually the turnovers, a consistently sore spot for the Highlanders last year, have been cut down. Through the first 3 games the NJIT TO rate was 16%. The 17 turnovers committed by NJIT on this night were not a huge concern for Engles. Simply it was a hard fought game where, "nothing came easy for anyone..." per Wagner coach Mike Deane.

The talent upgrade is very evident at NJIT. Last year’s point guard, 6-4 sophomore Isaiah Wilkerson is at his more ‘natural’ four spot. He paced NJIT with 17 points 13 boards.

"This was the type game we had a number of times late last season and couldn’t finish…Now we can go out on the court in a game like this and know we have a chance." – NJIT coach Jim Engles.

"We have to get better offensively. We are a young team and even our seniors are young experience wise and in terms of knowing their roles." - Wagner coach Mike Deane

Mississippi Post Game: Jay Wright's Flying Circus

Once Upon a Time in San Juan...
On a night when the Wildcat offense (again) did not get going until late, the defense showed up and smothered the Rebels enough to put the Wildcats back in the game. Recaps are available elsewhere, but for those interested in the numbers, there is no better place to look than the Wildcat's home. For those who prefer quick hits, try Mike Sheridan's game notes; they are a great way to get key information and statistics without wading through the paragraphs. The Wildcats were locked up in a nip & tuck stuggle (+- 5 points) with the Rebels until the 14:13 mark of the 2nd half. The 'Cats began to break it open, slowly (and that's about the only place in this analysis I can use that word...), opening their lead out to double digits (on a j by Corey Stokes) at about the 7 minute mark. The 'Cats managed to maintain the margin for another 9 possesions (per team), when a pair of 3s by Chris warren and 2 free throws by Reggie Buckner brought the Rebs to within 9 points, 63-72. The Rebels however, had about 94 seconds in which to work, and fouling Villanova, a team that is converting at a 70.5% clip right now, is not a winning strategy. Villanova pulled away again, pushing the margin out to 12 as time expired.

The breakdown by halves...

OpponentMississippi 
 1st2ndGame 
Pace39.843.683.4
 Offense Defense
Rating67.8119.394.757.8101.080.3
eFG%36.453.144.633.351.443.7
TORate35.218.426.432.622.927.6
OR%34.850.041.526.126.126.1
FTA/FGA12.171.941.537.030.633.3
FTM/FGA9.156.332.318.519.419.0
ARate27.331.329.637.543.841.7
Blk%9.19.49.23.713.99.5
Stl%17.14.810.97.76.67.1
PPWS0.771.211.020.721.070.92
2FG%39.153.846.933.345.840.5
3FG%20.033.325.022.241.733.3
FT%75.078.377.850.063.657.1
%2FG66.753.858.252.250.050.7
%3FG22.211.515.226.134.131.3
%FT11.134.626.621.715.917.9

The 2nd half offensive explosion was fueled by each of Oliver's four factors (see green highlighted stats under Offense above). The 'Cats converted their 2 point attempts at a much higher rate, marginally improved their 3 point conversion rate, took care of the ball (reduced their turnover rate), took full possession of the boards (both ends, but I am talking about offensive boards right now) and did a much better job getting to the charity stripe (end-game fouling fluffed those numbers a bit). The offensive efficiency that was lacking for the first two games on the island showed up, just a little late. Reynolds and Stokes accounted for 100% of the 3FGMs while taking 56.3% of the 3FGAs. Collectively they converted their 3FGAs at a 44.4% rate. Stokes in particular, had a very good night, logging a 1.65 PPWS (82.5 True Shot) to go with his 66.7% eFG%.

The defensive efficiency slipped, half-over-half, but note the 1st half defensive efficiency, 57.8 is ridiculously low (see orange highlight above), there is no reason to expect that the 'Cats could limit the Rebs to a half a point per possession for an entire game, and the only number that slipped into the mediocre range was field goal defense (eFG% under defense, note the red highlight).

Notes & Observations
1. Antonio Pena logged his 3rd double-double of the 5 game-old season as he scored (a personal best of the season) 17 points while securing 16 (6-10-16) rebounds. His 6 offensive rebounds are especially impressive, as he posted a ?% offensive rebounding rate for the game. Pena missed a double-double in Villanova's opener against Fairleigh Dickinson by a single point. He is averaging a double-double (12.2 ppg, 11.0 rpg) so far.
2. Villanova defense is well ahead of Villanova offense this season, something of a surprise frankly. The 'Cats have held their opponents to < 1.0 points per possession (ppp) in every game this season. They have held opponents to < 0.90 ppp in 3 of their 5 games so far. I will post more on the tournament shortly, with additional numbers.
3. In the absence of Mouphtaou Yarou, Maurice Sutton has stepped in to start 2 games and play 55.8% of the minutes at the #5. Sutton's line includes 11 points on 4-8, 3-5 shooting. He has grabbed 17 (7-10-17) rebounds while dishing 1 assist and committing 7 turnovers with 4 blocked shots.
4. 3 point shooting in the Mississippi game aside, Taylor King put together a very impressive effort. Despite going 0-4 from beyond the arc, King scored 9 points on 3-9 (0-4, 3-5) and 3-4 shooting. For the 2nd consecutive game King missed his 1st collegiate double-double by 1 -- in this game it was a point; in the Dayton game it was a rebound. King also dished 1 assist, committed 2 turnovers and had 2 steals in 29 minutes of play. For the tournament King secured 24 rebounds while scoring 31 points in the 3 games.
5. For the 3rd consecutive year Villanova has played in the championship game of their early season invitational, and for the 2nd consecutive season they have won that game. Congratulations Wildcats!

Ref Notes
Terry Moore, Gerry Pollard and Kelly Self ran the game, the 2nd Villanova tournament game for Pollard who also refereed the George Mason whistle-fest. The game was well within the standard deviation for fouls called, on both Villanova and their opponent. Self is a new face to the Nova Nation. He has refereed for 14+ seasons, mostly in the CUSA and Big 12 conferences. From the stats over at StatSheet.com, Self appears to be more a "let 'em play" type zebra. Gerry Pollard is also a new face to Wildcat fans. Pollard refs out of the Missouri Valley and Big 12 conferences.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Coaches vs Cancer Wrapup

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY -- On Friday evening Syracuse captured the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic dismantling fourth ranked North Carolina 87-71. A dominant second half enabled the Orange to pull away from the Tar Heels and establish themselves as one to watch on this year’s national scene.

The rundown:

In the 5 pm consolation, with both teams having played less than 24 hours before, there was a closely contested contest between two teams hoping the exit MSG with a win.

FTM
Poss.ORtgeFG%FGAOReb%TO%
Ohio State6811057411715
California719945123320

Ohio State had a distinctively lower offensive rebounding total but looking at the eFG percentage we get a major reason why. The Buckeye’s shooting percentage from the floor meant there were less opportunities to grab a miss. Any weakness on the offensive board was negated by an impressive 15% turnover rate.

OSU’s Evan Turner deserves a lot of credit for the low turnover rate. Against North Carolina Turner had the triple ‘dubious’ double which included ten turnovers along with his 23 points 11 rebounds. After the semis Turner made it a point of emphasis to cut down that number. He succeeded with only 4 Tos in 40 minutes.

Turner and Cal’s Jerome Randle shared game high honors with 26 points. Not to discredit Cal’s senior guard but a breakdown shows Turner had a more complete outing.

FGMFGAFTMFTARebPtsAstTOBlkStl
Turner91481114266421
Randle1021001263300


The NBA efficiency formula adds positives (FGM, FTM, REB, PTS, BL, Steals, Assists) while subtracting negatives (missed FGS and FTS , turnovers).

The results from the consolation including total efficienc and efficiency per, or divided by, minute:

Eff
Effper Min
Turner370.925
Randle160.421


FTM
Poss.ORtgeFG%FGAOReb%TO%
Syracuse771136163421
North Carolina759541304325

Syracuse trailed at the break 39-37. The Orange opened up the second half going on a 22-3 run the first eight minutes. During that stretch Carolina had more air balls (3) than field goals made (1).

The breakdown by halves:

Off. Eff.
1st Half2nd Half
Syracuse95132
North Carolina10387

The Tar Heels prefer a fast pace but this might have been too quick this early in the season. Especially against a Syracuse team getting great guard play. Syracuse attempted 10 free throws but hit only 4. Not detrimental on this night but this is a nother reason I prefer the FT Productivity metric (FTM/FGA). It is one thing to get to the line. More important what you do when you get there. Orange actually shot 43% (9 of 21) from three and only 40 % from the line.

"We have been coming here (MSG) a long time. That second hald might be the best we played. Defensively we were great and very unselfish." - Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim

"They have the best zone in college basketball. One minute you think you are open then there is someone to block your shot." - North Carolina coach Roy Williams


All Tournament
Jerome Randle-Cal
Evan Turner-OSU
Marcus Ginyard-UNC
Andy Rautins-SU
Wes Johnson- SU (MVP)

The Big East -- Comparing BCS Records

Oh Providence...
A quiet story through the first week+ of the season was the cumulative conference records, especially among the power (BCS) conferences. Preseason stories for example, heralded the return to glory of the SEC, led of course by the resurgence of the Kentucky program even as those writers anticipated a less dominant Big East Conference. The won-loss records compiled by the BCS conferences suggest the Big East may not be ready to go gently into that good night. 2009's most dominant conference opened the 2010 season with a 40 game winning streak that exceeded the next lengthiest conference (the Big 12) by 11. Which conference was the "last to lose"? In truth it came down to the Big East and Big 12 again. And who went last was not clear, as both Providence and Kansas State (the two who lost "first" in their respective conferences) started their ill-fated games at 8:00 EST (Providence-Alabama, Kansas State-Mississippi). I suspect, given the time lag in the game schedule at the Puerto Rico Tip Off Classic, that the Big 12 lasted about 20-25 minutes longer than the Big East counterpart. The summary through Friday evening per Ken Pomeroy's Rating Site...

RecordAdjustedEff.
ConferenceWLPctPomeroyOff.Def.PaceSOSDiff
Big 123020.9380.8948116.287.770.90.475328.5
SEC2960.8290.6720107.598.068.20.44529.5
Big East4120.9530.6839110.396.870.80.439313.4
ACC3030.9090.8751104.969.467.70.417435.5
PAC 102270.7590.6515111.099.570.80.39411.5
Big Ten2380.7420.592296.688.768.40.29257.9

The table is sorted by Strength of Schedule (SOS). The season is still very young (about 15% of the total games this season have been played), with the conference SOS and Pomeroy Rating still volatile. I looked at the totals for Thursday and found the Big Ten had the highest SOS. Note the Big East is ranked 3rd in adjusted offense (110.3) and 4th in adjusted defense (96.8). Efficiency Difference (Eff. Diff) derives from subtracting the ajusted defensive rating from the adjusted offensive rating. More teams accounts for more wins? Maybe, but consider Big East teams are averaging a won-loss record of 2.6-0.13 per team, while the Big 12 averages 2.5-0.16 and the ACC averages 2.5-0.23 per team through Friday night.

Last Thursday was brutal for the Big Ten, as the conference went 1-3, their teams taking losses to North Carolina (Ohio State), Mississippi (Indiana) and UNC-Wilmington (Penn State).

Dayton Post Game -- Flyin' High


They Were Born to Run
Fans from the Flyer Nation said over and over their guys liked an uptempo game. And the two teams ran through much of the game. Going into the locker room at the half, the 'Cats led by 6 in a game on pace for 75 possessions. That would have made this game the highest possession game played since Kutztown. Half time adjustments slowed the pace. Villanova pushed the lead out to 18 before Dayton took one last 24-8 run to tightened it up at the 2:22 mark. Flyers repeatedly fouled Wildcats (Fisher, King & Pena -- did Coach Gregory see the Louisville game last season?) to stop the clock and force possession changes, but going 9-10 from the line thwarted the strategy.

The Nova Blogosphere is replete with recaps/analysis/commentary. The Villanovan Sports Blog, IBBW, VUHoops.com, Villanova News and Villanova Viewpoint have posted entries. The Flyers, coming off of the 2009 season which saw them send the Mountaineers packing from the NCAAs, are no longer satisfied with moral victories, according to the Dayton Daily News story filed Saturday. The official website posted the usual AP wire story, along with a number of quotes from teh post game presser. And of course, the official box score. The breakdown by halves.

OpponentDayton 
 1st2ndGame 
Pace37.534.471.9
 Offense Defense
Rating98.898.798.777.4104.590.4
eFG%50.033.341.542.953.748.2
TORate21.414.518.129.417.423.6
OR%31.638.135.030.016.723.7
FTA/FGA48.350.049.232.137.034.5
FTM/FGA27.646.737.317.925.921.8
ARate46.266.754.540.063.652.4
Blk%10.36.78.510.73.77.3
Stl%10.65.98.48.02.95.6
PPWS1.040.920.980.901.131.02
2FG%50.035.042.540.036.438.5
3FG%33.320.026.330.843.837.9
FT%57.193.375.955.670.063.2
%2FG54.141.247.941.422.230.8
%3FG24.317.621.141.458.350.8
%FT21.641.231.017.219.418.5

No Offense But...
On a day when the Wildcats could not find a 3 point shot, nor could they convert their 2s after the break, the defense (everywhere except the 3 point line...) held the Flyers in check. Note the red highlighted shooting percentages in the table. What the 'Cats gave up in 3s, they more than made up for in defensive rebounding (see the OR% line above). The 'Cats went ice cold in the 2nd half, except at the free throw line -- note Villanova's point distribution for the 2nd half was a disquieting 41.2-17.6-41.2 (2s-3s-FTs) -- the 'Cats scored as much from the free throw line as they did from 2 point field goals.

Notes & Observations
1. Rebounding was an area of concern coming into the season. The Wildcats have registered their second strong outing against (a more...) experienced front court. Taylor King, Antonio Pena, Maurice Sutton and Corey Stokes have proven to be an effective front court rotation. Dominic Cheek, for the time he logged was effective on the defensive boards too.
2. Antonio Pena's double-double streak ended at two, as the junior bfc scored 13 points (on 4-5, 5-8 shooting), but grabbed only 7 rebounds. Pena, matched against Dayton's 6-10 Twin Towers, Devan Searcy and Kurt Huelsman, logged 19 minutes while dealing with 4 personals. 7 rebounds in 19 minutes is not bad at all.
3. Taylor King missed logging his first double-double by a single rebound. The sophomore transfer scored 14 points and snagged 9 rebounds in 31 minutes of play.

Ref Notes
Lee Cassell, Terry Davis and Rick Randall worked the game. This was the second consecutive game for Randall, who was involved in the foul-fest versus George Mason on Thursday. It must have been the other two zebras (Terry Oglesby and Gerry Pollard), as this trio whistled 40 fouls between the two teams (23 against Dayton, 17 against Villanova), contrast to the extraordinary 54 fouls (which translated into 76 FTAs between the two teams), a number more consistent with Villanova's first two home games.

Friday, November 20, 2009

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: At the Coaches vs Cancer

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY – The first one was a rout. The nightcap looked like one was in the works. In the end North Carolina was left to sweat out a 77-73 decision over Ohio State in the Coaches vs.Cancer semis at Madison Square Garden.

The scores and TEMPO FREE Breakdown:

Offens
ScorePoss.Effncy
Syracuse9580119
California738190
 
North Carolina7776101
Ohio State737597

Syracuse entered the game averaging 84 possessions a game. The Orange imposed their will pace wise and defensively. Cal could not solve the patented 2-3 zone of Syracuse. Often the possession, after several passes, would end in a three pointer. Cal (44 per cent eFG) shot 6 of 20 from three point land. Cal was without (injured) three point threat Ryan Roberson, an 18 ppg scorer, but coach Mike Montgomery refused to let that be an excuse.

‘STUDY’ THOSE TOs:
Both teams had solid turnover rates, Syracuse at 15% and Cal at 19%. Actually Montgomery was very concerned over the 15 turnovers his team committed because they led to 19 Syracuse points. A closer look shows Syracuse had 10 steals so at least two thirds of the Cal turnovers were very damaging types leading to Syracuse transition opportunities.

Scoop Jardine led the Orange with 22 while Cal’s Jerome Randle, getting a good look by NBA scouts, paced all with 25 points.

The night cap was a tale of two halves. At the break it was 38-24 North Carolina and the Buckeyes (31 % eFG) had to be thankful it was that ‘close’. The second half saw the Big ten reps find the range, especially beyond the arc . The Buckeyes shot an eFG pct of 65% and made it too close for Roy Wiliams & Co.

Certainly, there were breakdowns on the Carolina side. but Ohio state found a late game rhythm and hit a succession of treys in the final two minutes to turn a 3-4 possession contest into a one possession affair. The late jim Valvano used to discuss how shooters facing a double digit deficit often loosten up , relax and start to hit shots. When the game is close they tend to tighten up. Carolina was consistent efficiency wise for their two halves. The Tar Heels posted a 103 mark the first half en route to a 101 finish. Ohio State was dramatically different.

Efficiencies
1st Half2nd HalfGame
Ohio State6712697

North Carolina, led by Deon Thompson’s 17 points, had 4 players in double figures. OSU’s Evan Turner (I almost typed Evan Turnover) had an interesting line. Turner led all scorers with 23 points, pulled down 11 boards but had 10 turnovers.

OSU meets Cal in the consolation with an interesting ACC-Big East battle, North Carolina and Syracuse set for the championship.

George Mason Post Game -- Freshman Arise!


Time Stood Still
The Patriots were supposed to be a tough out, but they were supposed to go out in the end. I guess Coach Larranaga and his guards, Cam Long and Andre Cornelius who fueled the 21-8 Patriot run to open the game. The 'Cats, staggered with the pregame loss of Mouphtaou Yarou (transfer Taylor King started) were ice cold to start the game, but launched a run 15-5 run of their own to close the gap to 26-23. And the Patriots responded with another 11-5 run to close out the half, 37-28. It took the 'Cats 12 ½ minutes into the second half to erase the 9 point deficit, but they tied the Patriots at 54-54, and the game then went down to the wire, with neither team able to open a lead larger than 5 points. The Wildcats mounted a 7-2 run in the last minute of play to pull out the game. Thank the freshmen, Maalik Waynes and Isaiah Armwood for knocking down a pair of 3s to notch the win.

VUHoops.com posted a very brief recap, amidst the notes on Yarou and the preview of Dayton. Publisher over at Villanova Viewpoint penned a paean to Armwood in honor of the victory. The Villanovan Sports Blog also posted a quick recap. Nova News filed a longer recap with analysis -- "Thunder in Paradise". IBBW appears to be last to the party (except for my post...). And then there is the AP wirestory and box score posted on the official website, along with a short set of game notes and post game quotes. The breakdown by halves...

OpponentGeorge Mason 
 1st2ndGame 
Pace37.133.070.1
 Offense Defense
1st2ndGame1st2ndGame
Rating75.5124.398.599.894.097.1
eFG%34.850.043.446.439.543.6
TORate32.415.224.324.315.220.0
OR%40.050.045.233.313.324.2
FTA/FGA87.063.373.650.0121.178.7
FTM/FGA52.236.743.439.384.257.4
ARate28.658.347.48.342.921.1
Blk%8.73.35.77.10.04.3
Stl%5.53.04.35.39.17.1
PPWS0.861.050.961.071.041.05
2FG%35.742.939.347.646.247.1
3FG%22.237.532.028.616.723.1
FT%60.057.959.078.669.673.0
%2FG35.729.331.954.138.747.1
%3FG21.443.934.816.29.713.2
%FT42.926.833.329.751.639.7

The half-time adjustments are obvious -- note the jump in Villanova's offensive rating, half-over-half (green highlight). The bump derived from a small raft of improvements, largely but not exclusively, related to field goal shooting. Villanova's eFG% is a mixed stat that includes 2FG% & 3FG% conversions -- note that both improved in the 2nd half. The team apparently eschewed the take 'em aspects of the offense in favor of rotating the ball -- note the bump in the 2nd half assist rate. An important component is the dramatic cut in the turnover rate (even as GMU's FTA/FGA rate grew significantly -- note the red highlight). The Patriot's relatively strong point per shot (note the red highlighted PPWS) was due to the relatively large number of fouls which put GMU players on the free throw line. Villanova's shot defense (good in both halves -- note the blue highlight) held the PPWS and score down. Lack of consistent field goal defense has been a troubling part of Villanova's defense during the past 4 or so seasons. Last season's squad addressed the problem and the team prospered. Good to see the squad is maintaining that kind of pressure on opponents. Solid defense kept this game within reach. Despite having the ball, a timeout and 17 seconds, the veteran Patriot squad was unable to get a shot off in the last 17 seconds of the game.

Notes & Observations
1. The referees warmed up by stopping play 24 times for fouls in the 1st half. Then they got hot and blew it 30 more times in the 2nd half. On site reports note the play was choppy, frequently interrupted with free throws and out of bounds plays. A whopping 34 FT were attempted in the 1st half, only to be surpassed by another 41 (not a typo folks) free throws in the 2nd half. 75 FTAs make it hard to get into a flow.
2. Four Wildcats (starters Antonio Pena, Taylor King and Corey Stokes, joined by rotation player Maurice Sutton) were DQ'd by the zebras. GMU foward Kevin Foster was also benched for fouls. Four other Patriots, starters Mike Morrison and Louis Birdsong were, along with subs Luke Hancock and Andre Cornelius were tagged with four fouls.
3. Antonio Pena logged his 2nd career double-double, snagging 12 rebounds to go with 10 points. Also noteworthy is that this is the 2nd consecutive game in which Pena has reached double-double numbers.
4. Villanova absolutely dominated the boards on both ends of the court today, gathering a staggering 50% of the offensive misses in the 2nd half, while limiting the Patriots to an eyepopping 13.3% of their misses in the 2nd half. Villanova snagged 86% of the available misses. For the game, the Patriots were limited to less than 1 in 4 misses on their end of the court, while the 'Cats rounded out to 45.2 for the game. Mason returned a veteran front court this season, a game like this from Pena, Stokes, Sutton and King -- even in the absence of Yarou -- was very comforting. That Corey Fisher and Maalik Wayns chipped in 6 rebounds apiece is shocking. I think Nova Nation fans would have to go back to the days of Randy Foye to find a guard performance to match the board work from Fisher and Wayns.

Roster Notes
Freshman Mouphtaou Yarou was a DNP. Eyewitnesses report he did not suit up and was not on the bench. Unofficial word has circulated that Yarou left Puerto Rico to return to Philadelphia for an undisclosed medical problem. The speculation spinning in the late afternoon to report he -- had already/was about/would definitely -- return to the island (and the tournament) before the last game on Sunday. No official comment on the circumstances surrounding Yarou's condition.