Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: A Possession-Based Convert

by Ray Foriani

NEWARK, NJ – It is about 11:53 at night. Fatigue and a cold interview room are taking their toll. Then Seton Hall coach Bobby Gonzalez has a personal revelation. "A lot of people look at points allowed to determine if a team is good defensively." The Seton Hall coach said. "Points allowed is affected by the pace of the game, we prefer to look at points per possession." Hearing this gave a spark to the interview. Suddenly the prospect of getting out of the Rock past midnight on a single digit temperature night wasn’t so bad after all.

Gonzalez revealed his tempo free affinity to explain that his club’s 91-81 win over St. John’s did not constitute a poor defensive effort. He was half right.

At the Half…

	Poss.	Eff.
St. John's	33	88
Seton Hall	34	132

Final totals…

	Poss.	Eff.
St. John's	71	114
Seton Hall	73	125

The Hall defended for a half. The final twenty minutes St.John’s scored 52 points on 38 possessions for a whopping 137 efficiency. Gonzalez is right giving up 81 points does not necessarily mean bad defense. On the other hand, while noting his affinity for points per possession, the Hall coach did not let the press know the Hall’s final mark (1.14 or 114 efficiency) was decidedly too high.

Both teams had turnover rates under 20%.

	TO Rate
St. John's	15
Seton Hall	18

The ‘half full’ crowd could say both teams valued the ball; the ‘half empty’ could note the poor defense couldn’t even force a turnover.

A final note about Seton Hall's shooting. The Pirates, led by another sterling performance by Jeremy Hazell (31 points), shot better beyond the arc than inside of it.

	3 Pointers			2 Pointers
	FGA	FGM	Pct.	FGA	FGM	Pct.
Seton Hall	8	14	57%	21	42	50%

Providence Post Game -- Pace

A trip to Friartown and a game at the Dunkin Donuts Center has always been an honest barometer for the Wildcats. If they can play the Friars there without losing focus, not to mention the game, I have taken as a good sign. The team is making progress. The 'Cats won last night, 94-91 in one of those games that had a strange rhythm throughout. In an earlier season (2002 perhaps?) the 'Cats would have lost that game. In an earlier game this season, the Wildcats did struggle at the line late, not quite able to put an opponent away. Not last night. Faced with that sense of inevitability one feels when an opponent heaves a prayer from 3 feet this side of the midcourt line that hits nothing but net, and then follows with a rebound that pops out of your best rebounder's hands with a half dribble out the arc, barely square to the basket with another heave that falls, the 'Cats exhaled, and then hit the free throws they had to. The official website has the usual AP wire story & the official box score. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Providence
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	41.2	42.8	84.0
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	118.9	105.2	112.0		82.5	133.3	108.4
eFG%	60.0	40.9	50.7		44.8	56.3	51.4
TORate	21.8	23.4	22.6		29.1	14.0	21.4
OR%	40.0	54.5	47.6		30.0	38.5	34.8
FTA/FGA	31.4	66.7	48.5		44.8	42.5	43.5
FTM/FGA	20.0	54.5	36.8		27.6	30.0	29.0
ARate	35.3	38.5	36.7		50.0	47.1	48.1
Blk%	2.9	6.1	4.4		0.0	2.5	1.4
Stl%	9.7	16.9	13.3		19.4	2.3	10.6
PPWS	1.22	1.04	1.12		0.97	1.19	1.09

Half Time Adjustments...
The first half went according to script. As the table above suggests, Nova's offensive efficiency was 118.5, above their adjusted efficiency (111.5), even as their defensive efficiency, 82.5, bettered their season adjusted efficiency (87.3). The first half was a series of three runs, two by the 'Cats that served as bookends to a run by the Friars. Scottie Reynolds fueled the first spurt, a 12-2 run that put the 'Cats up by 10. The Friars stormed back with an 18-8 run that knotted the game at 20 somewhere around the 8:37 mark. The 'Cats responded with one last 29-14 run to take a 15 point (49-34) lead into the locker room. That last run was sparked by consecutive 3 point conversions by spark plug Dwayne Anderson, who stroked a third 3 later in the run. Unlike the first run, 4 players contributed points in ways that highlighted the squad's offensive potential. The first half pace, 41.2, was unusually high, possibly the highest number of possessions in a half this season. VMI and North Carolina play at that pace.

While the 'Cats were able to push the scoring differential out to 19/20 twice during the 2nd half (at the 14:00 mark and later at the 11:00 mark), the Friar's guard corp, Jeff Xavier, Weyinmi Efejuku, Marshon Brooks, Brian McKenzie and Sharaud Curry unleashed a barrage of 3 point attempts (24!), an uncomfortably large number of which (11) found the net. The preview posted earlier this week noted that shooting efficiency (eFG%) and offensive rebounding rates (OR%) might serve as keys to a win (or loss). The red & green highlighted sections in the table (above) monitor how well Villanova performed in those categories, relative to season-long numbers. The sea of red that covers virtually every defensive category in the 2nd half bears testament to Nova's need for improvement, particularly 3 point defense and forcing turnovers. Coming into the game Providence was the #58 ranked team for offensive efficiency (per Ken Pomeroy's Stats Page) with a rating of 108.4 (raw) and 109.3 (adjusted). The Friars played offense to their efficiency, largely by converting 3FGMs and a great 2nd half effort on the boards. 133.3 is not the Wildcat's worst half of defense this season by the way -- that honor goes to the 1st half of the UConn game (not obvious because the 'Cats also posted one of their best offensive halves, making the effort a wash).

Notes
1. Scottie Reynolds broke out of his offensive slump, posting an eFG% of 50.0 and a PPWS of 1.23, while scoring 31 points in 35 minutes of play. Scottie lived at the line in the 2nd half, hitting 10 of 11 FTAs to seal the win. Putting the ball in his hands for the Wildcat's last possessions has become the strategy in games of 3 or less possessions. He forces a Hobbsian on Nova's opponents -- foul him and virtually concede the 2 points, or guard him closely as the clock winds down and make him force the play. Largely unrecognized was Scottie's contribution on the offensive boards, where he grabbed a very impressive 10.2% of the OBoards when he was on the court.
2. Dwayne Anderson recorded his first double-double of the season as he scored a season high 19 points to go with his 10 (3-7-10) rebounds. Dwayne uncharacteristically took 4 of his 11 FGAs as 3s, going 3-3 on 3s in the first half. Anderson came to Villanova with the reputation as a 3 point shooter, but had dialed that back last season to concentrate on rebounding and defense (and scoring inside the arc).
3. Dante Cunningham logged his 7th double-double of the season, going 5-5 from the field on his way to a 12 point, 11 (4-7-11) rebound night. Dante's efficiencies, eFG% (100.0) and PPWS (1.63 -- his 2nd highest of the season) are again very impressive. Cunningham took only 8.7% of the team's FGAs when he was on the floor (85% of the game). I am not sure why his teammates did not look for him more, though the 'Cats unusually low assist rate (36.7 for the game), coupled with a very high turnover rate (23.4 in the 2nd half), suggest the Friar made denying an entry pass to the low post a priority. Dante was whistled for 4 fouls, breaking his streak of 4 consecutive halves without a foul.
4. Corey Fisher is becoming an impact player for the 'Cats. Corey F logged only 16 minutes before fouling out, but took 36.8% of the team's FGAs during that period, scoring 12 points on 5-10 (1-4, 4-6, 1-1) shooting. Fisher was both prolific and efficient, posting an eFG% of 55.0 & a PPWS of 1.15. This was the second (of nine) Big East games that Corey F has fouled out of, the third in which he has been whistled for 4 or more fouls.
5. Reggie Redding posted his 2nd double-double of the season, on a quiet 12 points, complements of 6-11 (0-3, 6-8, 0-0) shooting and 11 (4-7-11) rebounds.
6. The offense, based on Shot%, appears to have gone through Fisher, Reynolds and Stokes. Reynolds and Fisher had relatively efficient nights, and were backed by a 2nd wave of scorers -- Dwayne Anderson and Reggie Redding.

Ref Notes
The crew was manned by veterans Tim Higgins, Ed Hightower and Paul Janssen. This was Hightower and Janssen's first Wildcat game this season. The game was physical, with a total of 50 fouls (24 against Nova, 26 against Providence) called. The number called against the Friars was more than the average called on Nova's away opponents and the 'Cats did get to the line more (above the standard deviation) than usual for an away game. The number of points scored at the line was, however, consistent with the proportion of points free throw shooting typically contributes to Nova's point total.

Other recaps/analysis
IBBW has posted 2 recap/reaction pieces and a highlight clip. (Good work Chris).
VUhoops.com posted a recap.

Preview -- Providence, the First Game

The Providence Friars will try to bounce back when they host the Wildcats Wedensday in the Dunkin Donuts Center in Providence, Rhode Island. The Wildcats & Friars continue a series that predates the Big East, going back to 1936. They have played 82 games over the past 73 years, Nova holding a 48-34 advantage. Villanova rides the wave of a 3 game winning streak...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
The 'Cats and Friars have 6 common opponents so far, Rhode Island was their lone OOC opponent, and the Big East conference schedule has supplied the other 5 (St. John's, UConn, Marquette, Cincinnati and Seton Hall):

	Nova		PC
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Rhode Island	W (N)	+13	W (H)	+1
Marquette	L (A)	-7	L (H)	-9
St. John's	W (H)	+19	W (H)	+21
Seton Hall	W (A)	(OT)+4	W (A)	(OT)+5
Connecticut	L (A)	-6	L (A)	-33
Cincinnati	W (H)	+21	W (H)	+9
Cincinnati			W (A)	+8

Providence (Big East, 14-7, 6-3, RPI #63) has had a few notably good wins, their best versus Syracuse (Big East 16-5, 5-4, RPI #24). All of their 7 losses have been to teams ranked #55 or higher. The most damaging loss to date was a 4 point home loss to Northeastern (CAA, 15-6, RPI #55) in their season opener...

Lineups, Rotations...
...First year Coach Keno Davis inherited an upper classmen dominated squad and has opted to work that group at every opportunity. He fixed on his starting lineup early and allocates to them between 68% and 72% of the PT.

In the front court expect to see senior forward Geoff McDermott (6-8, 235lbs) start beside fellow senior Jon Kale (6-8, 245lbs). McDermontt is a pass-first forward who prefers to set up shop on the perimeter and set up a teammate to score. When Coach Davis goes to his bench he will most likely bring in either senior #4/#5 Randall Hanke (6-11, 245lbs) or sophomore Alex Kellogg (6-7, 225lbs). McDermott, Kale and Hanke are well regarded rebounders, with McDermott ranked among Ken Pomeroy's Top 100 defensive rebounders, and Hanke ranked among Pomeroy's Top 100 offensive rebounders.

Coach Davis has installed a three guard attack, drawing again on the most experienced elements of the squad. Expect seniors Weyinmi Efejuku (6-5, 210lbs) and transfer Jeff Xavier (6-1, 185lbs) to start as off guards. Efejuku and Xavier form an inside/outside combination, with Xavier preferring a 3FGA (he hits at about a 35% rate) while Efejuku takes it inside, where he scores at about a 51.4% clip, but more importantly, gets to the line about once every 3 FGAs (that is about the same rate as a forward). Red shirt junior Sharaud Curry (5-10, 170lbs) will start at the point. Labeled a "Role Player" by Ken Pomeroy's system (see his Team Page) Curry is a consistent, though not prolific, shooter who looks for the open man -- he is ranked in Ken Pomeroy's Top 200 for assists per possession. Curry took a red shirt last season, and the team struggled with Xavier unexpectedly manning the point (and McDermott functioning as a point forward). Coach Davis has options to maintain the high game pace his Friars run. He will look to sophomore guard Marshon Brooks (6-5, l90bs) and junior Brian McKenzie (6-4, 205lbs) to come in a keep shooting/scoring. Both have logged just over 50% of the available for their positions. Brooks is the more efficient scorer and tends to limit his turnovers, but McKenzie has great range and is the better free throw shooter.

Dante Cunningham, Dwayne Anderson, Reggie Redding and Scottie Reynolds will start for the Wildcats. Antonio Pena usually starts, but his spot went to Shane Clark, making his first start this season, in the Wildcat's last game (Cincinnati). No matter who takes the last spot, the other will most likely see playing time. When Coach Wright looks for relief, he will turn to the Coreys (Fisher or Stokes). Cunningham has gone nearly two full games without be whistled for a foul (hopefully I did not jinx him here...), but if fouls become a front court issue, expect to see senior Frank Tchuisi be called on for spot duty.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Coach Davis kicked Tim Welsh's uptempo game up a notch as Providence plays for about 72 possessions, more than the rest of the conference. Their (adjusted) offensive/defensive rating, 109.3/97.7 suggests they, like South Florida, play pretty good offense and pretty "average" defense. A look at the "numbers underneath" give us an idea of how they do it.

When Providence has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Friar O	51.3	18.9	37.9	37.2
Wildcat D	44.4	22.3	30.3	36.6

The Wildcat's shot defense will be put to the test yet again. Providence is ranked in the top 1/3 of D1 for shot efficiency, but they do a much better job hitting 2FGAs rather than 3FGAs. They do take 36% of their FGAs from beyond the arc however, so expect them to shoot away in the Dunk. Nova's OR% has declined over the past 3-4 games, according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report (rank declined to #90), while Providence is another team that rebounds their misses well. The rebounding numbers, especially Nova's defensive rebounds will most likely be a sensitive number. The Friars distribute the scoring opportunities among Efejuku and Xavier from the starting lineup, but Hanke and Brooks will get more scoring opportunities when they are in. Both Brooks and Hanke are more efficient than Efejuku and Xavier, though those two play fewer minutes. Brooks only very slightly favors 2FGAs over 3FGAs; he will most likely draw Redding when the two are on the court. Hanke shoots 2s and does it very efficiently, much as he did two seasons ago, when much of his scoring came on putbacks. His biggest improvement this season has been on defense, emerging as one of Pomeroy's top 500 defensive rebounders. The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus PC's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	50.7	18.6	36.1	43.2
Friar D	49.9	21.1	35.4	29.4

Nova should have a good night from the field as Providence is not defended the shot well lately. No doubt the level of competition has played a role, but the Friars are most deficient on interior defense, allowing opponents to hit 50.1% of their FGAs. Nova takes 69.5% of their FGAs inside the arc, hitting about 49.1% of the time, so this should be a good test for both squads. Rebounding under Villanova's boards seems to be pretty evenly matched. If second chance points become very significant how those matchups resolve may turn the game. Villanova likes to get to the line, nearly 1 in 4 points comes from free throws; Providence by contrast does a good job keeping opponents off the line...

Want to Beat the Friars? Then...
Shooting dominates as a critical factor for both squads. But for Villanova, effectively limiting opponent's second chance points is becoming an important key as well. Both teams appear to have difficulty winning when the pace rises to 71 or higher.
1. Defend their shooting -- When the Friar's eFG% was 50.0 or lower they were 4-5. When they were held to 44.7 or less they went 1-3.
2. Hit your shots -- Villanova's eFG% for the last 3 games has been 49.0 or higher. When the conversion rate has been that high, Providence's record is 7-7. Nova's record when they have converted at 49.0 or better is 12-1.
3. Limit their 2nd chances -- The Friars rebound about 38.0% of their misses. When Nova allows an OR% that high they have gone 1-3. Providence is 7-4 when they have been held to that rebounding rate or lower.

Finally...
...Coach Davis has gotten a senior-led squad off to a fast start in the Big East this season. A new coach, a new season, a new beginning. Perhaps. But Providence is coming off a 33 point spanking at the hands of #1 ranked Connecticut and Coach Davis' ability to remotivate his veterans will be tested.

According to calculations, this game should go for about 71 possessions, with the 'Cats taking a 5 point decision. If the possessions are that high, look for both teams to struggle, as Nova's record when the pace is that high is 3-3, while Providence, which has played 13 games with the pace > 70 is 7-6. I suspect that the 'Cats will want to see that a possession or two lower.

Connecticut at Louisville -- What Happened?!

That Connecticut won at Louisville last night may not (John Gasaway, Louisville fans & a large contingent of the Nova Nation aside) have been a big surprise, after all the Huskies were just installed in the #1 spot in both polls earlier in the day. The margin of the win however, was shocking. Maybe breaking the game down into halves will show something interesting...

Teams	UConn/Ville
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	37.1	29.6	66.7
	Connecticut				Louisville
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	103.4	101.2	102.4		69.4	84.8	76.2
eFG%	53.8	40.0	47.1		39.1	37.5	38.3
TORate	29.9	16.9	24.1		29.4	23.7	26.9
OR%	41.7	38.9	40.0		28.6	47.6	38.1
FTA/FGA	38.5	56.0	47.1		3.1	3.1	3.1
FTM/FGA	38.5	40.0	39.2		3.1	3.1	3.1
ARate	64.3	30.0	50.0		45.5	36.4	40.9
Blk%	11.5	24.0	17.6		6.3	9.3	7.8
Stl%	21.8	10.1	16.6		10.7	6.8	9.0
PPWS	1.24	0.95	1.09		0.80	0.77	0.79

Half Time Adjustments...
A few obvious observations first -- this was clearly a defensive struggle and Louisville was not in the game at all. The Huskies secured a 12 point lead by the half, and then tacked another 5 point cushion on that lead for the 2nd half re-enforces assertions that the Cardinals were not ready to play, at least on offense. Connecticut is the #2 ranked offense in the Big East; they demonstrated it in the 1st half by converting their FGAs efficiently (eFG% -- 53.8) and dominating on their boards (OR% -- 41.7). They undermined that offensive display by losing 3 in 10 of their possessions (without a corresponding FGA). Credit the Cardinals defense (ranked #1 in the Big East in conference play per John Gasaway's article over at the Basketball Prospectus. Credit the Cardinal defense for shutting down UConn's shooters in the second half. Though the Huskies cut into their turnover rate significantly half-over-half, their ORtg declined in the face of their inability to continue to convert FGAs into points (eFG% fell to 40.0). I was surprised by a few stats, which I have highlighted in green...
1. The 2nd half was sloooow. The teams played for 37.1 possessions in the 1st half -- that put them on track for a game of 74 possessions, a bit high, but not startling for two squads which usually play for 68 - 70 (or more) possessions. The 2nd half was played at a pace that only Georgetown (or DePaul) could like, something just south of 60 possessions. As an average, the game worked out to 66.7, about where Connecticut has played this season. Who took the air out of the ball? Probably Connecticut. Louisville as the underdog going into the last 20 minutes, would have looked for more not fewer possessions and scoring opportunities. Pushing the pace then slowing down without triggering a significant variation in their offensive is pretty impressive.
2. Rebounding Misses. Both teams did a good job of getting 2nd chance opportunities (though neither converted especially well). Defensive rebounding? As the other side of that coin, it is obvious that neither did well at all, though the Huskies were nominally better. The Cardinal's best defensive rebounders, Earl Clark and Terrence Williams, were well below season numbers. The Cardinals got better value from Andre McGee, Jared Swopshire and Terrence Jennings (with limited minutes).
3. Shots are Important to UConn. A good study in the relative importance of Oliver's four factors can be had by reviewing the half-over-half changes in eFG%, TO%, OR% and FTA/FGA & FTM/FGA relative to each team's efficiency rating. Connecticut's ORtg declined by 2% even though the team cut their turnover rate, and remained more or less steady in FTM/FGA (up @2.5 points) and offensive rebounding (down @1.5). Their decline in shooting pushed their ORtg down.
4. Louisville Values Rebounds. Check Lousiville's four factors. Note that FTM/FGA remained even half-over-half, while eFG% declined slightly. Yet their ORtg rose sharply, by >15.0. Credit a modest decline in their turnover rate (@6 points), and more importantly, the steep increase in offensive rebounding (@19 points). Going into the game Louisville was ranked #132 in eFG% with an eFG% of 49.9. When your shooting does not efficiently translate into points, you have to value 2nd chance opportunities.
5. The Blockers Got Blocked. Connecticut has the reputation as the shot blocking team in the Big East (indeed nationally), complements of a long tradition of dominant big men. Hasheem Thabeet, the latest in that line, was credited with 4 blocks versus the Cardinals. Yet the Huskies had over 1 in 6 of their FGAs blocked by the Cards. In the second half alone that number was nearly 1 in 4.
6. The Cards Need Williams. I have not been a big fan of "TWill", but he delivered last night. In a big way. He took 42% of the team's FGAs when he was on the floor, and converted at a very efficient 65.8%, well above his team's eFG% (an appaling 38.3%). Everywhere except on the boards Williams performed to his season averages.
7. Smith, Clark & Samuels Were MIA. I have no doubt the Cardinal postmortems will no doubt point to lack of point production from Jerry Smith, Earl Clark and Samuels as contributing factors for the Cardinal defeat. Those three took 20 FGAs between them, and converted twice. For Samuels and Smith, the numbers are even more curious, as those two took only 4 shots in their (combined) 39 minutes of play. Credit a Husky game plan that must have targeted both for lockdown. Credit Rick Pitino with finding Preston Knowles and Terrence Jennings, as those two went 6-9 and posted very impressive eFG% (75.0 & 67.7) and PPWS (1.50 & 1.33) numbers. Too bad Pitino did not play them earlier.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Forced & Unforced Turnovers

by Ray Foriani

SOUTH ORANGE, NJ - Happy Ground Hog Day! Hard to believe it is a little over a month until the Big East Tournament in New York. At any rate…The late Al McGuire coined the phrase ‘more turnovers than Betty Crocker’. That came to mind reading that St.Bonaventure had 31 TOs in Saturday’s 74-68 loss at Duquesne. The numbers

	Poss	Eff	TO Rate
St. Bona	84	81	31.0%
Duquesne	81	91	12.3%

A 91 defensive efficiency usually gets a W. But when almost 70 percent of your possessions end in handing the ball over, It’s tough to win. To add insult to injury, as bad as Bonaventure was with the basketball, Duquesne, on the other hand, valued it.

There is also a concept quoted on the Kentucky Sea of Blue site. It deals with forced(direct) and unforced(indirect) turnover. A steal is a forced turnover, the ball is clearly swiped and possession changes. The unforced variety includes throwing the ball away without pressure, stepping on the end line etc. Now, good defense can force you to step on the line or make a hurried pass that goes into the first row. Statistically, the forced turnover percentage is not perfect but it gives a good idea whose fault these miscues were. To calculate forced turnovers divide steals by turnovers. Duquesne had 8 steals. That figure divided by the Bonnies’ total (31) means Mark Schmidt’s club was guilty of 74% unforced turnovers.

The Sea of Blue site deals with percentage of steals, simply what percentage of possessions end in steals. For the Bonnies their number was 9.5% . Haven’t used the forced/unforced concept too much so ascertaining good, bad and average numbers is still uncertain. One thing is certain, if your TO rate is 31% and over 70 % are your own fault, the offense is in critical condition.

Cincinnati Post Game -- Getting It

Not ready to letdown after the win against #3 Pittsburgh on Wednesday, the Wildcats hosted the Cincinnati Bearcats at the Pavilion, their on campus arena. The Wildcats showed no hospitality as they dumped Cincinnati 71-50 with another stunning second half performance. Mike Sheridan's always-well written post game notes tallies the Pavilion home game winning streak at 25 games. The Official website) also offers an AP wire story and the official box score.

The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Cincinnati
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	31.3	32.5	63.8
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	95.8	126.1	111.3		92.7	64.6	78.4
eFG%	45.5	59.3	53.1		51.9	22.7	35.6
TORate	28.8	18.5	23.5		28.8	27.7	28.2
OR%	41.7	46.2	44.0		37.5	46.4	43.2
FTA/FGA	59.1	40.7	49.0		11.5	24.2	18.6
FTM/FGA	45.5	33.3	38.8		7.7	18.2	13.6
ARate	30.0	46.7	40.0		72.7	50.0	64.7
Blk%	4.5	7.4	6.1		3.8	18.2	11.9
Stl%	12.4	3.1	7.8		9.9	9.1	9.5
PPWS	1.06	1.27	1.18		1.06	0.57	0.78

Half Time Adjustments...
...the 'Cats led by a point going into the locker room. The first half offense was a bit shaky as each team logged an ORtg < 100.0 which suggested this could well shape up as a defensive struggle. The Wildcats were lower than their "rating expectations" (92.7 vs 89.3), but not significantly off track; they needed to . Their offensive rating however, was terribly off of their season-long rating (95.8 vs 110.7). What is not obvious in the splits above (though hinted at given their eFG% of 45.5) is that the Wildcats were blanked from beyond the arc. And they took nearly 30% of their FGAs from that distance. From 2 point range Nova was shooting a very impressive 62.5%. The Bearcats were concentrating their efforts in shutting down the Wildcat's long range shooting and leaving the mid-range jumpers (i.e. Dante Cunningham) free to shoot away. Note that Villanova converted with passable efficiency (eFG% -- 45.5; the 3FGA shutout noted), but had an atrocious turnover rate (TORate) of 28.8, neutralized in part by the Bearcat's own turnover rate of 28.8. Both teams conceded defensive rebounding. Nova had pinched Cincinnati's principal scorers, Deonta Vaughn & Yancy Gates, by limiting their FGAs and "holding" them to 50% shooting (combined 5-10), taking only 38.5% of Nati's FGAs. The secondary scorers, Dion Dixon, Steven Toyloy, Alvin Mitchell and Larry Davis were forced to take 53.8% of Cincinnati's FGAs, hitting 6 (4 of which were 3s...that kept them in the game).

Villanova has made a habit of second half transformations over the past 3 - 4 games. The Bearcats were the latest victim of the trend. The 'Cats went with what worked in the first half -- inside shooting and lots of it. They tabled 3FGAs, taking only 6 of their 27 FGAs from the 3 point line (21.4%, well below their 30+% season average). In sharp contrast to Deonta Vaughn's 0-10 exercise in shot futility, motivated apparently by the need to fill the Cincinnati scoring void (despite his problems in the first half), Nova's Scottie Reynolds dialed it back and let the second wave (plus a proficient Dante Cunningham) take their licks. The Wildcats, in the form of the two Coreys, Dwayne Anderson and Shane Clark, did not disappoint. Those four shot a combined 9-16 (only 2 3FGMs). Those 16 FGAs were 59.2% of the total FGAs taken.

Ref Notes
Jeff Clark, Tony Greene and Mike Stuart ran the game. Nova fans should be familiar with Clark and Stuart, as this was their third game this season (the 'Cats are 3-0 in games where those two have officiated). This was Tony Greene's first Wildcat game this season, though he has officiated games in prior years. While the whistles and FTAs were very close to average, the Bearcats got to the line only 11 times, far below the average (and outside, low, of the range of the standard deviation). The difference (5 FTAs) were not significant to the outcome of the game however.

Big East at the Eighth Poll

Through Friday, every team played at least 7 games, while three have posted their first 9. Every member of the conference should have 9 in the book by the end of this week. So how is the season shaping up?

	Big East			Overall
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Louisville	8	0	1.000	17	3	.850
Marquette	7	0	1.000	18	2	.900
Connecticut	8	1	.889	19	1	.950
Pittsburgh	7	2	.778	19	2	.905
Providence	6	2	.750	14	6	.700
Villanova	4	3	.571	16	4	.800
Syracuse	5	4	.556	17	5	.773
West Virginia	4	4	.500	15	6	.714
Cincinnati	4	4	.500	14	7	.667
Georgetown	3	5	.375	12	7	.632
Notre Dame	3	6	.333	12	8	.600
Seton Hall	2	6	.250	11	9	.550
St. John's	2	6	.250	11	9	.550
South Florida	2	6	.250	7	13	.350
Rutgers	0	8	.000	9	12	.429
DePaul	0	8	.000	8	13	.381

Pleasant Surprises
The conference is tough on first year coaches, especially those coming in from mid-major conferences; the only really good first season lately that I can remember was the one posted by John Thompson III. So I was not that optimistic about the prospects for Marquette and Providence in the face of their HC turnovers in the off season. I rated both about a quartile lower than I thought they would have done with their original coaches. Looks like I was wrong as Buzz Williams and Keeno Davis have their squads off to very good starts (despite the Friars' loss to Connecticut Saturday). Marquette, a bit shaky back in December (watching the Warriors versus the Vols in the BE-SEC Challenge was painful) is on track to get two byes in the Big East Tournament. Other surprises (albeit to a lesser degree) include Connecticut, which I thought would be 1st quartile, but not the #1 ranked team in the country (if the voters cooperate on Monday) & Pittsburgh, which also topped the D1 rankings for a week or so last month.

No Surprises
At the top of the conference, the nod goes to Louisville, and in the 2nd quartile, to Villanova, West Virginia and Syracuse. The Orange Nation might have expected more from their team, especially after the high rankings in the D1 polls (and the fast start to the Big East season), but they have hit a glitch or two in the past week, including another injury to Andy Rautins (principal outside threat whose absence last season reduced their offense to an inside game) and a 1-4 skid during a challenging portion of their schedule. I had pegged Georgetown to finish in the 3rd quartile and they are sitting there now complements of a five game losing streak. Observer columnist Howard Megdal ruminates on the Hoya's (and the Irish -- more on them in the next section...) in his Big East Bubble Teams column of 1/31. Early season (OOC) success combined with MSM acclimation may have raised expectations for the Hoya faithful, but after the cheering subsides, the Hoyas have a young, uninitiated front court (ie Monroe & Vaughn) combined with a young point guard. The bumps were bound to come. The major part of the 4th quartile (South Florida, St. John's and DePaul) are about where they where I suspected they would be. The Blue Demon's collapse this season was a bit more extreme than I expected. There is a good deal of season left, but Coach Wainwright has to be feeling the heat right now (especially with the loss to Rutgers, not noted in my standings, on Saturday).

Unpleasant Surprises
Just when I finally got on the Irish band wagon the wheels fall off. For the past two seasons I have projected the Irish somewhere in the #9-#12 spots (a 3rd quartile finish). And twice they proved me wrong by finding a defense (which I dubbed the "Just Enough Defense"...) which allowed their potent and high speed offense to turn games into blowouts, rather than road races. When Rob Kurz graduated someone should have checked his bags before he left campus. He seems to have packed up the defense and taken it with him. Luke Harangody would benefit from a second body down low to challenge defenders to block out. Challenging Notre Dame for most disappointing (for my projections...) is Rutgers. Granted my projection for the Scarlet Knights was modest enough -- the 3rd quartile as opposed to a 4th quartile finish. But having waded 9 games into the season to log their first win (against DePaul no less) is not a good sign for their prospects. They lost the first round of The Battle of New Jersey on Thursday night (on the road), but have a second try against Seton Hall in a week or so. They also host fellow 4th quartile dweller South Florida in late February. Those two may be their best prospects for a win in the second half of the season.

Pythagoras Says
Ken Pomeroy prefers to use overall points for and against when using the pythagorean winning percentage formula for projecting wins and finishes. It makes sense for the season, but given the Big East's dominance in D1 (indeed a "more wins than losses" distortion occurs with respect to most of the power conferences...), so using conference results only provides a less distorted apportionment of the wins/losses. The results through Thursday evening yield a season ending standing that looks like:

	W	L
Louisville	16	2
Connecticut	15	3
Marquette	15	3
Pittsburgh	14	4
Providence	12	6
West Virginia	12	6
Syracuse	11	7
Villanova	11	7
Georgetown	7	11
Notre Dame	7	11
USF	6	12
Cincinnati	5	13
Seton Hall	4	14
DePaul	3	15
Rutgers	3	15
St. John's	3	15

Little here that is especially startling, given the 1st half, but seeing Connecticut finish 2nd and Georgetown and Notre Dame finish with double digit losses seems overly pessimistic for all three schools. Cardinal fans may disagree with the first note, and while over reliance on freshmen and no defense may seem daunting challenges at this point, neither is impossible to fix. There is still time.

Half Time Observations
1. The teams making the best showings so far feature upper classmen leaders. The juniors & seniors have (with an exception or two) pushed the freshmen to the side. Consider the "underperformance" of several of the teams that rely heavily on freshmen/transfers to step into leadership roles with graduations and transfers. Are those long learning curves really that surprising, especially given the number of very experienced squads featured this season?
2. Defense seems to dominate play so far. The Marquette -- Georgetown game on Saturday is a notable exception as each team registered efficiency ratings > 1.10 points per possession (ppp, sometimes designated ORtg and DRtg), the Hoyas registering a very respectable 1.16, but falling to the Warriors because they could not stop Matthews, McNeal (and Hayward) as those three shot/scored to the tune of 1.33, one of the highest for a game I have seen in the Big East this season.

Thoughts About Post Season Teams
1. Notre Dame's Luke Harangody may take the POY award on inertia. He is after all, having a very good individual season and got the nod in the preseason. But Marquette's Jerel McNeal is having one of those seasons. The senior has posted a series of eye-catching performances, and unlike the Irish, the Golden Eagles (thinking of Marquette's three senior guards, how could anyone seriously not think of Marquette as the Warriors?) are among the elites in the conference this season, and McNeal is a big reason why they are there.
2. Preseason ROYs were Samardo Samuels and Greg Monroe. No one has emerged to challenge those two, though Samuels may have the advantage now with the Hoyas in a slump. The All Rookie Team may well be front court (#5) heavy as Monroe, Samuels, Rutger's Greg Echenique, Cincinnati's Yancy Gates and South Florida's Gus Gilchrist have all carved out large amounts of playing time as starters and contributors. The strongest candidates among the forwards (but not centers...) include West Virginia's Devon Ebanks and Louisville's Jared Swopshire. Late bloomers among the freshmen frontcourt players include Syracuse's Kris Joseph, Georgetown's Jason Clark, Louisville's Terrence Jennings, Georgetown's Henry Sims and South Florida's Eladio Espinosa, all of whom have begun to find their way into the regular rotation. Espinosa has logged several starts as USF coach Stan Heath juggles the lineup in the face of injuries. The best back court candidates include Connecticut's Kemba Walker, Rutger's Mike Rosario, St. John's Quincy Roberts and West Virginia's Darryl Bryant, the last two pressed into duty when injuries sidelined their squad's starters. A few contributors who may get votes include South Florida's Justin Leemow, St. John's Tyshwan Edmondson, Cincinnati's Dion Dixon, DePaul's Jeremiah Kelly and Pitt's two freshmen guards, Ashton Gibbs and Travon Woodall.
3. Villanova's Dante Cunningham has had a tremendous half and has garnered a comment or two in the ink and electronic media. If he maintains the momentum he will most likely play himself onto one of the three All Big East teams.