Big East Rookies -- 10 15 To Watch

Samuels and Monroe were named Big East co-ROYs on Media Day back in October, but there will be a team of eleven (including an ROY) that will be named in March. I wanted, as the regular season gets underway, to take a look at number of players who will no doubt be under consideration for the All Rookie Team. I suspect Monroe and Samuels are heavy favorites to take the year-end honor as well, but should either or both falter, the next in line is most likely among the 15 others listed below:

							FTA	FTM
Player	Coll.	Pos.	Min%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	FGA	FGA
Mike Rosario	RU	G	79.6	32.5	53.5	1.15	24.2	21.0
G Echenique	RU	F	73.6	21.2	63.1	1.26	89.2	53.8
S Samuels	Ville	C	70.0	26.8	55.9	1.22	71.0	51.6
Greg Monroe	GTU	F/C	68.9	22.9	57.6	1.27	100.0	72.7
K Walker	Conn	G	64.9	15.8	56.5	1.30	74.2	62.9
D Bryant	WVU	G	59.0	23.2	52.1	1.15	45.4	35.1
J Kelly	DPU	G	54.1	14.9	44.6	0.93	18.5	12.3
Devin Ebanks	WVU	F	54.0	19.4	46.7	0.97	56.0	29.3
Yancy Gates	Nati	F	50.7	35.7	59.1	1.19	22.2	13.1
Kris Joseph	Cuse	F	46.5	15.1	50.9	0.98	48.1	18.5
Q Roberts	SJ	G	44.1	16.1	51.0	1.09	26.9	21.2
Jason Clark	GTU	G	44.0	12.3	51.7	1.27	69.0	65.5
E Espinosa	USF	F	34.8	12.1	52.4	1.10	81.0	47.6
Ashton Gibbs	Pitt	G	28.4	18.1	58.5	1.23	26.8	22.0
Gus Gilchrist	USF	C	27.9	26.0	37.5	0.80	36.5	19.2
N Robinson	Pitt	F	24.2	10.6	47.4	0.94	36.8	15.8
J Swopshire	Ville	F	20.5	17.6	50.0	1.03	50.0	27.3

[Note -- all data, except for PPWS was drawn from individual Team pages from ESPN's website]

Some Housekeeping...
The players are sorted by playing time, under the assumption that those who play more probably (according to their head coaches...) that which their respective teams need, be it scoring, rebounding, defense, etc. I then sorted (within playing time) by field goal efficiency, though to properly gauge a player's role with respect to team offense, looking next at Shot% may make more sense. Some of the players listed are starting games and logging 25+ minutes per game while others are playing somewhere in the 15-20 minute range. What most have in common is efficient scoring (see eFG% and PPWS, most are >50.0 and >1.05 respectively) while simultaneously taking a large enough percentage of the shots when they are on the floor to be considered a 1st, 2nd or 3rd option on offense.

Oasis in a Sea of Sand...
Rutgers had the defense last season, but Scarlet fans grew understandably weary with measuring success by the margin of defeat (and taking an occasional win against a Villanova or Pittsburgh). St. Anthony's Mike Rosario gave Rutgers their first New Jersey HS POY in a decade, and combined with St. Benedict's Greg Echenique, technically a junior who reclassified and cleared additional credits through the NCAA, provided the Knights with their best recruiting class in a long, long time. Coach Hill wasted no time getting these guys on the court. Both have logged twelve starts in twelve games (through games of 12/30/08) and more minutes than any other players on the Rutgers roster. Should Rosario pull Rutgers out of the cellar this season, I suspect he would, like Dominique Jones of South Florda last season, receive some consideration for the POY. As it is he will most likely have to settle for a unanimous selection to the All Rookie Team. Echenique, a player from Venezuela who enrolled at St. Benedict's two years ago to raise his profile for a possible D1 scholarship (and a college education) provides, when starting next to junior Hamady N'Diaye, a Twin Towers look for Rutgers. And some needed front court defesne and rebounding. Echenique also contributes about ?? points to the Rutgers offense.

Other Favorites...
Should the Samuels/Monroe pair falter then Connecticut's Kemba Walker or Cincinnati's Yancy Gates will be there to take the standard. Gates, like Rosario/Echenique has started virtually every game this season for the already front court-loaded Bearcats, while Walker logs quality minutes often the first player off the bench to mix in with junior pg AJ Price and senior combo guard Craig Austrie. I suspect head coach Jim Calhoun would love to start both Price and Walker, leaving to opponents to figure out who is running the offense. Gates is a DeJuan Blair-style big forward/center who scores and rebounds better than his dimensions would suggest. He, along with senior forward Mike Williams, leads the Bearcats for rebounding. Others who will get notice and are virtually certain to get votes include Darryl "Truck" Bryant from West Virginia. Bryant worked himself into the starting lineup and has stayed there for the last six games. The injury to junior point guard Joe Mazzulla, has put the ball in his hands as he has run the 'Eer team for Bob Huggins. St. John's Quincy Roberts has appeared in virtually every Johnnies game this season, and has started the last two games for Norm Robert's squad.

Late Comer...
South Florida's Gus Gilchrist's waiver application was approved by the NCAA and he has appeared in the last six Bull's games, starting 2 of them. Gilchrist is a work in progress (maybe not as far along as Gates or Blair from last season...), but the Bulls need him now.

Villanova Efficiency Usage -- Thoughts on 2008-09

Looking at the Villanova roster for next season and reading through Pomeroy's "Effective Usage" article naturally brought me to the queston of which players will assume what roles next season. The roster and circumstances offer a rare opportunity, because while the slate of opponents will change (a good deal less than one might imagine, given the 18 game Big East schedule on top of the 4 game round robin format for the City Series...that's 22 games out of 29 that don't change from seaon to season), the team (Malcolm Grant excepted and Acts of God, unknown at this point) will return except where noted, intact. Maurice Sutton will most likely not (exigent circumstances excepted) have much (if any) opportunity to demonstrate he is indeed the Nova Nation's much pined for "man in the middle". The Wildcats will most likely play the hand they were dealt -- from last season.

I have reproduced the rotation (players who logged 10% or more of the available minutes at their position) from last season, along with each player's playing time as a percentage of the available minutes at their position (Min%), the percentage of possessions they had (Poss%) and Offensive Rating (ORtg). The last set of columns ("Avg.", "25-75", "5-95", "Diff?" all ordered under the heading "2008-09 Projected") is drawn from the charts Pomeroy reproduced for his article, "Effective Usage" over at The Basketball Prospectus last October:

	2007-08			|----2008-09 Projected----|
Name	Min%	Poss%	ORtg	Avg.	25-75	5-95	Diff?
Dante Cunningham	75.0	19.0	104.1	19.5	17-21	15-24	No
Shane Clark	50.9	16.8	111.1	17.5	15-18	13.5-22	No
Reggie Redding	51.6	14.2	99.7	15.0	13-16	11-19	Yes (+)
Casiem Drummond	19.9	21.4	104.4	21.5	19-24	16-26.5	Yes (+)
Dwayne Anderson	45.1	15.3	114.9	16.0	15-18	13-22	Yes (-)
Scottie Reynolds	81.4	25.1	105.6	24.5	23-26.5	19.5-30	Yes (-)
Corey Fisher	53.1	25.5	94.1	24.5	23-26.5	19.5-30	NA
Malcolm Grant	26.2	21.6	113.2	NA	NA	NA	NA
Antonio Pena	48.4	21.5	95.4	21.5	19-24	16-26.5	NA
Corey Stokes	45.9	17.6	101.6	18.5	14.5-20.5	14-24	NA

Pomeroy correlated the percentage of possessions a player used in year N by the percentage of possessions he used in year N-1. Determining an "average" percentage of possessions, he was then able to develop the range of possessions (to 50% certainty 25-75, and 90% certainty 5-95) for the same class of players. Assuming his calculations hold for this next season (they seemed to hold for last season, exceptions noted below), then we can anticipate the approximate percentage of possessions for the rotation next season. For Dante Cunningham, who used 19% of the possessions (earning him a "regular/starter" role on last season's Wildcat squad...), we find by looking under the heading "2008-09 Projected" that players using a similar percentage of possessions on average used 19.5% of the possessions the next season. To a 50% certainty they consumed in the range of 17% to 21% of the team's possessions (a marginal starter to solid starter role) and to a 90% certainty they used in the range of 15% to 24% (role player role to borderline go-to guy role) of their team's possessions (when they were in the game...). Pomeroy also detmined possessions for year N+1, based on year N as well. My last column indicates whether the 1 and 2 year charts agree with respect to the particular player (juniors and seniors only), and if not, I indicate whether the average from 3 year chart showed an average higher or lower than the 2 year chart.

Growth in the percentage of possessions (and Shot%, hence the enlarged role within the offense...) is largely due to minutes that become available when players leave (graduate, exhaust eligibility, become injured and move on to the NBA). Few opportunities spontaneously open because someone suddenly got very good in practice. As Pomeroy put it:

...Players do jump from being decoys to go-to guys in one season, and some even regress...Those are the exceptions. By and large, a player's role on his team in one season is a good indicator of his role the following season. It's largely on that principle that the team previews are based...
- Ken Pomeroy, Effective Usage, 10/10/07

The only block of "unclaimed" possessions (and minutes) come from Malcolm Grant's transfer. And while his transfer is disappointing to this Villanova fan, the actual loss quantified is something on the order of about 157 (credited) points scored (out of a total of 2,547 team points) on 137 possessions (out of 2,428 total possessions). Not a lot of opportunities to prove yourself, especially if you are trying to impress the coaching staff and earn more playing time. If the team is to improve on the 2007-08 results, the players who make the rotation will have to use their possessions more efficiently than last season. They will have to score more consistently on the possessions they get.

Rising Juniors
I believe the trendline will hold for Dante Cunningham and Shane Clark. Their Poss% may grow modestly (see the Avg. column above) and they should, as seniors, outperform their ORtgs from this past season.
While Dante Cunningham's growth in possessions from his freshman to sophomore years was just outside (high side) of the 5-95 confidence interval, his growth slowed measurably last sesson, staying in the predicted range. The loss in ORtg was modest, and frankly common when the growth in any player's Poss% is factored in. There is no reason, based on his performance last season, to believe Dante has yet one more "growth spurt" in him.
Shane Clark has garnered about 16% of the possessions in each of the past 2 seasons. As with Cunningham, the trend appears to be pretty much set. The fans have seen the same player start relatively strong in the beginning and fade as the season moves into conference play. Unlike his sophomore season, we did see a resurgence at the end of the 2007-08 season, but the mid-season malaise set the tone for the entire team's slump. A borderline breakout, 95^th percentile growth in role would put Shane at 22% for Poss%, about at Pena's level of involvement, and nowhere near the "go-to guy" role of Scottie or Corey Fisher. If he could maintain his scoring efficiency (with a Poss% of 22), that would constitute a very good season. But given the potential of the other members of the squad, I don't expect it. Last season, with the loss of Sumpter and competition from a freshman and historical bench players, Shane had an opening to make the job (and role) his, but he didn't. He may, like Mike Nardi who had similar durability problems, finish out his career with the numbers of a solid contributor, but his most valuable contribution may be the intangibles, leadership and scrappy play, that don't translate easily into numbers.
Predicting the function Dwayne Anderson will have on next season's team is, given the dramatic change in his function this season, difficult to say the least. Injuries to Clark and Drummond in the days before the start of Big East play took the edge off the team's performance. Early Big East losses added to the (then) growing uncertainty about the team's prospects for the regular and post seasons. The staff turned to the leader of the scout team to inject some energy (and optimism?) into the starting line up and shore up the team's confidence. And Anderson stepped up with a series of steady performances that featured not only timely buckets, but (much needed) rebounding on both ends of the floor and a body-on-the-floor example for the freshmen to rally to. Paradoxically, while his playing time increased (nearly doubled actually) over 2006-07, his Poss% rate declined by just over 5%, even as his efficiency (ORtg) increased. The paradox is resolved by understanding that as a player becomes more selective in his scoring opportunities (and less conspicuous in the consumption of possessions) he greater success at scoring (and thereby more efficient)..The increase in playing time may have arisen frome exigent circumstances, but the staff must have liked what they saw. As for next season, the charts are contradictory. The one year chart indicates that on average, players who had Anderson's Poss% will decline very slightly, dipping to just under 15 (14.5 possibly?), while the two year chart indicates that players who had Anderson's sophomore possession rate (20.1), will, on average, have a Poss% of about 22. The "overlap" in the 2 charts falls in the 18-22 range, or borderline "regular" type possessions. Anderson provided solid rebounding support and a terrific on court example, I would not be surprisd to see him continue gathering 15 or so percent of the possessions ("role player" function) while playing in the 35%-40% range for that quality alone. He will remain a 4^th/5^th scoring option when he is teamed with some combination of the go-to guys (Reynolds & Fisher) and the obvious regulars (Cunningham, Stokes, Pena & Drummond).

Rising Sophomores
The prognosis for The Two Rs (Reggie Redding and Scottie Reynolds) ought to be "more of the same". When Pomeroy wrote about continuity of roles (function) he could have cited Reggie and Scottie as examples. From freshman to sophomore years both progressed almost exactly as averages of the cohort.
Scottie Reynold's Poss% declined slightly just as predicted. His minutes increased even as his possessions declined. The decline in Scottie's ORtg was unexpected and brought a down note to his season. For most players a decline in Poss% usually brings an increase (however slight) in the player's ORtg (see Dwayne Anderson below). The 2007-08 team lacked a second, very efficient "go-to guy" like Curt Sumpter, someone who could draw enough defensive attention to give Reynolds more room to operate.
Reggie Redding took 14.2% of the possessions when he played, in both his freshman and sophomore years. Projections (see the "Avg." column) suggest he will get a few more possessions next year, but I would not be at all surprised to see his Poss% stay very close to 14. When Redding is teamed with Reynolds and Fisher, the 'Cats need someone to set the screen, box out on the shot, or grab the ball...and pass it out to the open man. Reggie did improve his ORtg this season, coming very close to crossing that "one point per possession" threshold that brings credibility to a college player. Experience alone accounts for some of his progress (learning to deal with the nerves; when to shoot, when to pass...), but Reggie's ORtg climbed by 13%, suggesting the improvement may be more than just a year of experience. Another 13% increase next season and Redding will be an efficient role player. While his ORtg though improved, was still below the team ORtg, given the modest number of possessions, any impulse to assign blame for underperformance on Reggie is probably misplaced.
Casiem Drummond, like Dwayne, is an enigma. How he works into the team next season will depend not only on successful rehabilitation (and continued good health) of his foot, but also whether he comes back with the conditioning necessary to play Villanova basketball and if the staff maintains a commitment to utilize post passing and an inside offensive presence. Arriving out of shape his freshman year Cas was able to play only 10% of the available minutes while functioning as a role player within the offense. This past season, properly conditioned from an off season program, he posted break-out type numbers before injuring his foot in early December (late November?). And while he appeared in 13 games after leaving the Temple game (and started three of them), his effectiveness was clearly diminished. If healthy and effective Drum may not take a higher percentage of the possessions than he did this season (see table above), but he will get minutes because he can score consistently near the basket (or get to the line...) and also put up some very nice rebounding numbers, an area of weakness for the Wildcats last season.

Rising Freshmen
Attrition through transfer has already taken two of the five members of the class which started using it's eligibility in 2007. The three remaining were very well regarded coming in, and last season provided opportunities to see each at his best. Recognition and consistency are the key, but this is the group which can have the greatest positive impact on Villanova's ORtg...mostly because their individual ORtgs were low.
Many predicted Corey Fisher would start at #1 from the first game. Ironically Fisher missed the first game (versus Stony Brook), but he was the first in the group to start (versus Penn in early December). He went on to start 21 of the next 25 games before being brought off the bench for the 2 games in the BET and the 3 NCAA games. While Corey F. had some very good games (Penn -- 13 points on 4-9 shooting, DePaul - 23 points on 8-15 shooting; second Syracuse game -- 21 points on 7-15 shooting, etc.), he also had some stinkers (Georgetown -- 4 points on 1-16 shooting, though he did have 4 assists; Connecticut -- 5 points on 1-6 shooting with 4 assists, etc.). And he (along with Scottie Reynolds) showed a lack of maturity by being late to the team bus in Louisville. Coach Wright started neither, and kept Fisher on the bench for all but garbage time, as the 'Cats lost by 14. Fisher, a natural leader and creative passer took too many shots last season and hit far too few of them. Despite some decent assist numbers Fisher logged a 94.1 ORtg while consuming just about 1 in 4 possessions while he played. Scoring about 3.75 points for every 4 possessions while the team as a whole scored 4.16 points every 4 possessions suggests Fisher was a drag offensively on the unit. That he was able to log only 53% of the minutes available in a situation that was tailor-made for his talent and skills, suggests there was a good deal that was not working for Fisher last season. Assuming Corey F. will again be paired with Reynolds next season, look for him to repeat this past season's pattern and function as one of the (2) go-to guys when the team is on offense. Whether his Poss% declines slightly (anticipated outcome -- see Avg above) or grows to 30% (within the 95% certainty range) Fisher must convert his opportunities at a more efficient rate.
Antonio Pena was drafted into the starting rotation because of injuries to Casiem Drummond. Pena performed well, but unevenly as he managed to work himself into the offense as a regular type player, a 2^nd/3^rd option on offense. Whether he starts over Drummond or comes off the bench, Antonio will (if Drum is healthy) have to split the minutes at #5 with Cas and any minutes at #4 with Cunningham (and Anderson?). Like Fisher Pena took too many possessions to score that inefficiently (ORtg was 95.4). Unlike Anderson, Cunningham and Drummond, Pena has not exhibited especially strong rebounding skills for a big man either. Unlike the Villanova teams of 2004-06, last season's version of Wildcats did not feature a strong rebounding backcourt. Don't look for it to suddenly develop next season either. That makes this an essential skill for anyone playing in Villanova's frontcourt.
Corey Stokes looked dazed and confused for a good part of the season. The staff plugged him in and let him play through some pretty terrible games (1-6 versus George Mason, 1-8 versus Penn, 3-9 versus Louisville, 2-9 versus South Florida...), Stokes logged minutes in the mid and upper 30s (percent of the available playing time at his position), rising to about 45 by season's end with Poss% numbers which indicated he was functioning as a borderline regular in the offense. His shooting efficiency and ORtg also rose through the end of the season, both positive signs for this season. If Corey S. can start strong next season (ORtg >120) he may be able to push hard on the 95% confidence limit of 24% possessions. The average growth for a player with Corey's Poss% (17.6) is 18.5. Stokes has the fundamental skills to do better.

With no impact players due on the Mainline in the fall, the burden for growing the offense falls squarely on the shoulders of the returning rotation. Reallocating the playing time will most likely happen as the season progresses, but redistribution of possessions tends to occur only when one (or more) players becomes a lot better, ie the player scores more efficiently than his teammates. Candidates for biggest improvement (most improved ORtg) include Cas Drummond, Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes. One or all of them will have to improve if the Wildcats are to finish higher in the Big East and move deeper in the NCAA tournament.

Big East Freshmen: Three Weeks and Counting

I pulled Ken Pomeroy's individual stats from each Big East team's Scouting Page to compile the numbers. Most are from February 17, so this is the look with about 3 weeks of regular season play left. I have organized the data as I did for the mid January look, by shooting-related -- percentages of possessions and shots, offensive rating, field goal efficiency and PPWS (not Pomeroy's stat...), and nonshooting-related -- rebounding percentages, FTRate (FTA/FGA), assist rate and turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions). I am presenting those players who have logged at least 35% of the time at their positions (Min% > 35.0), as I suspect that, barring a last minute rush, that individuals in that group are probably the ones who will get serious looks. Somehow I suspect a coach who has limited (severely?) the playing time for a freshman would have a problem lobbying hard for the player at the end of the season. The offensive data:

Name	Coll.	Min%	%ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	55.0	116.4	14.6	14.5	50.8	1.11
Jeremy Hazell	Hall	63.7	114.6	20.7	25.7	53.1	1.12
A. Freeman	GTown	64.6	113.6	18.6	21.1	57.1	1.20
D. Jones	USF	85.4	112.8	22.8	23.8	54.8	1.17
Jonny Flynn	'Cuse	87.8	112.6	21.9	22.6	52.0	1.12
DeJuan Blair	Pitt	64.6	108.9	24.3	23.2	51.3	1.07
Dar Tucker	DePaul	53.3	108.2	28.5	33.1	50.2	1.04
Donte Greene	'Cuse	88.0	107.7	23.4	28.4	50.7	1.08
Mac Koshwal	DePaul	77.8	100.4	20.4	18.1	51.9	1.07
Rashad Bishop	'Nati	55.2	96.7	15.8	15.0	45.5	0.99
Corey Fisher	Nova	57.2	96.5	25.8	28.9	44.9	0.95
D J Kennedy	John's	65.1	96.4	18.7	16.5	46.1	1.03
Mike Coburn	Rutgers	67.4	93.6	19.6	19.1	43.6	0.98
Scoop Jardine	'Cuse	44.9	90.5	16.8	15.0	45.1	1.01
Corey Stokes	Nova	38.3	90.3	15.6	18.8	39.7	0.89
Justin Burrell	John's	83.0	88.0	22.4	23.3	43.0	0.96
Corey Chandler	Rutgers	56.0	87.1	30.8	31.5	45.3	0.96
Paris Horne	John's	35.5	85.9	20.1	20.1	48.4	1.08
Orane Chin	USF	50.3	85.8	15.8	15.3	40.1	0.84
Malik Boothe	John's	47.0	80.1	15.5	12.8	35.9	0.82

Note the cutoff provides a pool of 20 candidates, from which a Rookie of the Year and an All Big East team of 11 would be drawn. I suspect there may be some last season rushes (see last paragraph, below). But by-and-large I have to believe the ROY and most, if not all, of the All Rookie Team is present in the data above (and immediately below). Top 500 stats in a category is highlighed with a lime green background, while Top 100 stats in a category is lightlighted with a yellow background. Note that Pomeroy uses a cutoff of 40% Min% when ranking ORtg, Poss%, Shots%, OR%, DR%, Assists and Turnovers, but ups the cutoff mark to 60% of Min% when ranking FTRate and eFG%. The non-shooting categories:

Name	Coll	Min%	OR%	DR%	FRate	ARate	TORate
DeJuan Blair	Pitt	64.6	16.9	24.2	41.5	7.0	17.1
D J Kennedy	John's	65.1	8.6	19.1	52.9	10.5	23.0
Mac Koshwal	DePaul	77.8	11.8	17.5	41.7	6.7	20.5
Justin Burrell	John's	83.0	7.1	16.0	34.3	4.2	22.1
Donte Greene	'Cuse	88.0	6.1	15.4	29.1	9.9	16.5
Dar Tucker	DePaul	53.3	9.9	14.1	26.7	11.0	10.1
Corey Stokes	Nova	38.3	4.1	14.1	13.7	6.9	18.9
Paris Horne	John's	35.5	4.2	13.3	23.7	8.8	28.7
Orane Chin	South Fla	50.3	6.0	11.8	46.8	8.1	20.5
Rashad Bishop	'Nati	55.2	5.5	11.3	34.5	13.5	21.5
Corey Chandler	Rutgers	56.0	5.7	11.3	33.6	15.6	22.3
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	55.0	4.6	10.0	36.1	13.6	16.3
Dominique Jones	South Fla	85.4	4.6	9.8	45.2	18.3	16.8
Austin Freeman	GTown	64.6	5.4	8.8	20.1	11.7	17.0
Mike Coburn	Rutgers	67.4	2.7	8.4	38.7	18.8	21.4
Malik Boothe	John's	47.0	1.5	7.1	38.5	24.3	29.8
Corey Fisher	Nova	57.2	1.8	7.0	21.4	23.8	19.4
Jeremy Hazell	Hall	63.7	2.9	6.8	23.9	5.9	9.4
Scoop Jardine	'Cuse	44.9	1.5	6.7	30.4	19.8	30.6
Jonny Flynn	'Cuse	87.8	1.8	6.2	38.7	26.2	19.3

The data is sorted by defensive rebounding percentage. Not a coincidence that most (but not all...) guards are listed near (or at) the bottom of the table. Had I sorted by assist rate most point guards would have been listed at or near the top.

Rookie of the Year...
The preseason choice was a tie between Syracuse's Donte Greene and Jonny Flynn. While most of the top half of the tables could and may well, receive votes, historically there have been a number of biases at work for the regular season Rookie of the Year honor...
1. ROYs tend to come from teams that finish in the top half of the conference (and are most likely going to a post season tournament).
2. The ROYs tend to come directly over from the preseason list...so unless the preseason favorite implodes during the season (see Syracuse's Paul Harris last year) or otherwise falls seriously short in expectations, he (or they) have to be considered favorites for the regular season honor. The ROY tends in most cases, to affirm the judgement of the preseason voters, but may not necessarily be the player who had the best season.

So the question, properly phrased, should be, "Were Flynn and/or Greene's numbers/season good enough to reaffirm as Rookies of the Year?" Another Villanova blogger suggested they may again share the award, but I suspect that Flynn alone will be honored in the award runnup to the Big East Tournament. No one could have anticipated that Eric Devendorf would sustain a season-ending injury and that Josh Wright would leave the team, but both events came to pass, even on the heels of Andy Rautins' season-ending injury in August. Flynn and Greene have had to assume larger scoring roles than may have been originally envisioned. Syracuse may not be having the year the Blue Ribbon Yearbook folks imagined when they ranked Syracuse #20 in their preseason Top 25, but the two freshmen, along with fellow (though less heralded) freshmen Rick Jackson and Scoop Jardine, sophomore Paul Harris and junior Arinze Onuaku (and transfer Kristof Onegaet) have fashioned a very respectable record under the circumstances. And they are in good stead for NCAA consideration. Flynn's numbers, both shooting-related (ORtg, eFG and PPWS) and nonshooting-related (assist rate, FTA/FGA), are among the strongest in the conference and D1, freshman or no. Greene has been burdened from the preseason onward, by comparisons to Syracuse great Carmelo Anthony. Fairly or no, he has come up short.

Very Good But...
I would be shocked if the ROY voting unanimously affirmed the preseason honorees (either or both...), but while the following freshmen are certainly, in my opinion, worthy and will most likely receive some votes, each will fall short (but be most likely recognized by placement on the All Rookie Team).
Dominique Jones -- if winning the most Rookie of the Week honors was the criteria, then the South Florida #2 guard would be neck and neck to the wire with one or two others (see below). But recognition came after the preseason Media Day festivities. And the Bulls may not even get to New York City. A lock for the All Rookie Team though. Coach Heath has been very good with the guards he recruited to Arkansas, and I expect the same will be true at USF. Jones should do very well over the next 2 - 3 years.
DaJuan Blair -- Pittsburgh fans knew what was in store for the Big East, as Blair went to high school locally. For the rest of us the Duke game in mid December was the early notice. Blair by and large has lived up to expectations, despite having to function without a true point guard to feed him post passes. The Panthers are in good shape, despite some losses over the past two weeks, to dance next month. Blair's numbers have tailed off the past 3 or so weeks. Freshman fatigue? Fields' injury? I am not sure, but he has time to recover and help the Panthers take a post season run. Another All Big East Rookie Team lock.
Mac Koshwal -- the DePaul forward/center continues to have a strong season. But the Blue Demons are struggling and may not even get to New York City. I think both he and fellow Blue Demon freshman Dar Tucker are also locks for the All Big East Rookie Team.
Jeremy Hazell -- has earned a few Rookie of the Week honors with some eye-popping scoring numbers. Seton Hall is moving into the middle of the conference, and is positioned (should the Pirates run the table with the rest of their Big East schedule...) for post season discussions. Like Blair, Hazell can stake claim to consideration as a difference-maker for the Pirates. All Big East Rookie Team recognition may be all he gets however.

And Then There is...
Their numbers and recognition may not match the first list, but this list has a few All Big East Rookies as well.
Austin Freeman -- the Georgetown wing has been good enough to send Patrick Ewing Jr. to the bench, but a rookie on arguably one of the two best teams in the conference (notice that Louisville's Preston Knowles is no where to be seen...) provides Freeman with little opportunity for those "difference-maker" moments. His numbers however are solid and I would be very surprised if he misses the cutoff for All Big East Rookie Team. He should have a very good career with the Hoyas.
Justin Burrell -- The St. John's forward has had a productive season statistically, but the Johnnies are really struggling. As part of a line-up/rotation that includes too many freshman, Burrell and freshmen teammates DJ Kennedy, Paris Horne, Malik Boothe and (not listed) Sean Evans will provide their fans with more than a few good times and memories. Starting next season. Most likely one, probably Burrell, will make the Rookie Team.
Gilbert Brown -- His numbers top the chart, but with possessions and shots (%Poss, %Shots) in the mid teens, he is not really a first or second option on offense. Cook's injury provided him an oppportunity to step into a larger role with the Panthers, but six weeks later he is still splitting time with upper classman Keith Benjamin as fellow freshman Blair takes a good deal of the media attention. With his scoring as efficient as it is, I would not be surprised if he makes the All Big East Rookie Team. But with his impact as small as it has been in Cook's absence (and Blair's emergence), I would not be surprised if he doesn't.
Rashad Bishop -- Cincinnati, like St. John's, brought in a bunch of newcomers, JUCOs and freshmen, to take up spots on the roster. Center Anthony McClain has received consistent, if very small amounts, of playing time. Only Bishop has consistently pulled down double digit minutes and for a time, earned a spot in the starting lineup. Coach Cronin has moved him back to the bench lately, but he continues to get PT. Might be a good candidate for the All Rookie Team if he finishes strong.
Corey Fisher -- the most consistent of the three freshmen Villanova brought in this year. While Malcolm Grant has earned some Rookie of the Week recognition for his early season heroics and MDAA Corey Stokes has begun to round into form, Fisher has been the most consistent from early season to the past week. While none has had, to this point, the season the Nova Nation may have anticipated, an All Big East Team without (at least...) one of them is a little tough to imagine. My guess at this point is only one will make it, and the strongest of the group so far has been Fisher.
Corey Chandler -- the Scarlet Knights also brought in a promising group of freshmen and Chandler was the recognized leader of their contengient. After an up and down OOC Chandler suffered a stress fracture and was sidelined for about 3 weeks. Mike Coburn moved into the starting lineup in the point guard spot. Chandler has been back about a month but Coburn continues to start. Chandler, Coburn and junior Anthony Farmer rotate roles and time in the backcourt in a system that seems to provide all three with opportunities to alternately direct the team and score. Rutgers has not won enough to establish either Coburn and/or Chandler as difference-makers, but one (Chandler?) will most likely get a spot on the All Rookie Team. Of the other freshmen, Earl Pettis, a wing out of Philadelphia who prepped a year before joining the Scarlet Knights, has joined Chandler and Coburn in Coach Hill's rotation.

Big East Freshmen: Class of 2011 So Far

There was quite a bit of talk about this year's entering class back in the off season. I think this might have been the most competitive preseason ROY votes among the coaches since the CUSA schools joined back in 2005-06. Connecticut and West Virginia excepted (apologies to Donnell Beverly and John Flowers...), every school had at least one candidate to offer. I thought the pause at New Year it is appropriate to take a look at the freshman class' progress. The OOC is winding down and there are few, if any, Big East tilts in the books. I am running behind in getting this post together and on the blog, but I thought looking at the New Year's data from Ken Pomeroy's site, before we get 2+ weeks into the Big East regular season schedule, would still be productive. I have not listed all of the freshmen in the tables below. I am showing (sorted and ranked by ORtg%) only those who have played > 20.0% of the time at their respective positions, as of January 1. This provides us with a group of about 25 players to review. The All Rookie Team will have ten members plus the ROY, so most (but most likely not all...) of those who will be honored at the end of the BE regular season are somewhere in the tables below.

Name	Coll	Min%	%ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS
Austin Freeman	GTU	52.7	129.5	19.0	21.7	68.9	1.42
Malcolm Grant	VU	39.5	126.6	19.5	18.7	65.3	1.38
Jonny Flynn	SU	78.8	123.6	20.8	19.6	62.3	1.31
Rick Jackson	SU	33.8	123.5	15.6	17.2	65.2	1.28
Jeremy Hazell	SHU	51.8	121.9	18.6	23.8	52.5	1.10
DeJuan Blair	Pitt	56.1	120.8	23.9	23.1	57.6	1.19
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	40.6	119.4	14.8	16.4	47.1	1.07
Jamine Peterson	PC	27.6	117.8	25.5	28.8	51.7	1.09
Donte Greene	SU	86.7	117.4	21.8	26.3	56.4	1.20
Dominique Jones	USF	81.9	114.4	22.8	22.4	56.0	1.20
Corey Fisher	VU	55.7	108.8	24.9	28.2	50.0	1.04
Dar Tucker	DPU	52.6	106.6	30.0	35.2	44.8	0.98
Chris Wright	GTU	44.8	102.7	22.9	19.7	55.9	1.15
Mac Koshwal	DPU	77.1	101.9	20.6	17.3	53.9	1.10
D J Kennedy	SJU	73.0	99.6	20.7	18.7	51.8	1.13
Rashad Bishop	Cin	57.7	96.2	16.9	17.0	46.4	0.96
Justin Burrell	SJU	81.1	94.5	20.2	20.0	48.5	1.06
Larry Davis	Cin	33.1	94.3	20.8	24.1	50.9	1.09
Corey Stokes	VU	37.7	92.1	14.6	17.6	33.0	0.77
Corey Chandler	RU	58.1	90.9	30.2	30.4	54.0	1.02
Scoop Jardine	SU	36.0	90.4	19.4	18.0	45.1	0.99
Paris Horne	SJU	47.7	87.0	20.2	22.0	53.9	1.09
Orin Chin	USF	61.5	86.0	17.1	16.9	38.8	0.84
Mike Coburn	RU	51.2	81.9	21.6	21.6	57.1	0.84
Malik Boothe	SJU	36.1	81.7	15.0	12.7	33.9	0.82
Sean Evans	SJU	25.5	79.8	19.1	16.7	50.0	0.95
Earl Pettis	RU	25.0	60.1	19.4	17.2	28.1	0.61

Name	OR%	DR%	FRate	ARate	TORate
Austin Freeman	4.9	9.1	18.2	13.0	17.5
Malcolm Grant	1.3	4.9	51.0	17.3	20.1
Jonny Flynn	1.4	5.2	40.2	29.7	21.6
Rick Jackson	10.7	14.4	32.6	8.3	15.3
Jeremy Hazell	4.2	7.6	23.8	4.8	6.7
DeJuan Blair	20.0	26.9	43.4	5.0	14.2
Gilbert Brown	7.6	10.7	19.6	14.1	11.9
Jamine Peterson	20.1	18.0	36.2	3.2	10.1
Donte Greene	7.0	16.8	29.4	9.2	16.0
Dominique Jones	6.3	10.4	56.7	21.4	18.0
Corey Fisher	0.9	6.5	23.1	27.4	16.7
Dar Tucker	14.7	16.3	27.2	10.3	8.0
Chris Wright	2.9	12.8	33.3	22.4	26.9
Mac Koshwal	10.9	16.9	57.8	10.5	19.2
D J Kennedy	8.0	20.6	37.3	13.8	26.4
Rashad Bishop	12.2	17.9	24.3	16.6	21.4
Justin Burrell	7.8	17.9	36.4	4.1	23.5
Larry Davis	0.7	4.7	14.0	14.8	21.8
Corey Stokes	4.1	13.9	18.2	8.6	16.4
Corey Chandler	5.1	6.7	35.9	15.3	23.7
Scoop Jardine	2.5	5.2	25.5	19.3	30.4
Paris Horne	4.4	11.7	4.7	7.2	30.4
Orin Chin	6.7	14.5	51.3	7.7	20.6
Mike Coburn	3.5	8.7	44.7	18.6	24.8
Malik Boothe	1.5	4.2	42.9	19.2	27.0
Sean Evans	8.3	7.0	46.2	3.6	27.4
Earl Pettis	3.9	14.7	25.0	16.5	33.9

Data for each player has been drawn from Ken Pomeroy's website, an information resource created and maintained by Ken Pomeroy. Note that where Pomeroy identifies the player as "Top 100" in a specific category, I have highlighted that category with yellow. Those players who are designated "Top 500" in a particular category are highlighted in lime green.

Tracking the Preseason Favorites
Donte Greene -- Syracuse. He is living up to expectations, though the Cuse is suffering with the in season losses of Eric Devendorf (injury) and Josh Wright (left the program), added to the preseason loss of Andy Rautins. ROYs however, tend to come from winning teams who make the post season (usually the NCAA), and without those kudos, I wonder if the voters will give him strong consideration at season's end.
Jonny Flynn -- Syracuse. Also making progress under less than ideal circumstances. As many predicted, he started from day one and put up some terrific numbers in the OOC. Two caveats to consider...with Devendorf (and Rautins) out more of the outside scoring responsibilities have fallen to Flynn and fellow freshman Scoop Jardine. Becoming a principal focus of the defense will (has?) diminish his efficiency, particularly shooting. And with little relief available now that Josh Wright has left the program, even more playing time has fallen to him. Freshman fatigue may become a factor in his (and the team's) late season performance.
Corey Fisher -- Villanova. He broke into the starting lineup around the turn of the new year. He has maintained very respectable (though not ROY-level) numbers, note for example his ARate -- just behind Jonny Flynn and good for a #171 ranking. He will become more consistent in his play over time, as he continues to have "Freshman Moments" (and occasionally Games...). He looks very solid for the All Rookie Team, but probably not the ROY honor.
Mac Koshwal -- DePaul. Has shored up the middle very nicely. He is paired with 5^th year senior Wes Green to anchor the Blue Demon's post presence. His numbers are above average for a freshman year, but the Demons are struggling.
Austin Freeman -- Georgetown. Freeman is a proven scorer. He has started the last three games and even with the increased playing time and expanded role in the offense, he is maintaining those efficiency numbers.

Surprise, Surprise
Every year, despite the exhaustive coverage and reams of paper and ink spent covering everyone in the incoming class, some number of players manage to stay off (near the edge of?) the radar screen. Here are five who caught all but the most dedicated team folowers off guard.
DaJuan Blair -- Pittsburgh. The freshman has stepped ahead of two transfers to take Aaron Gray's spot on the court and in Pittsbugh's offense & defense. His rebounding numbers are off the charts, even as his offensive numbers (%Ortg, PPWS, eFG%) suggest very efficient on that side of the ball too. Note his possession and shot percentages (%Poss & %Shot) show he is an integrated part of the offense, not a role/marginal player as some rookies with his efficiencies are. His teammates look to him to take up some of the offensive responsibilities. At this point Blair fits the profile for an ROY. His team is on track for the post season and he is a significant contributor to that effort.
Dominique Jones -- South Florida. Jones has already won a handful of "Rookie of the Week" honors from the conference office. Jones is rated in the Top 500 not only in field goal efficiency, but in assists too. If Jones, working with point guard Chris Howard and center Kentrell Gransberry can get the Bulls to the middle of the conference he may have a chance to take the ROY at season's end.
Jeremy Hazell -- Seton Hall. The Pirates are making a break to the middle of the conference (or higher...), and Hazell's shot may help them get there. Like 5^th year senior Jamar Nutter, Hazell specializes in 3s. He is putting in about 50% of the time at a wing spot, and may provide the consistency that SHU fans have looked to Nutter to provide. Most likely not a strong candidate for ROY, he may well, if he can continue at this pace, work himself onto the Rookie Team.
Malcolm Grant -- Villanova. Like Scottie Reynolds, Malcolm Grant fell into Villanova's lap when (this time it was...) Seton Hall changed coaches. Nicknamed Microwave by his teammates, he has twice come off the bench to energize a lethargic Wildcat offense and get the team back into the game. Fans are wondering why the staff has not found a spot in the starting lineup for him.
Gilbert Brown -- Pittsburgh. Tabbed just before the start of the season by the SportingNews' Mike DeCourcy as a pivital player for the Panthers, Brown took the minutes that junior #3 Mike Cook left on the table. Cook went down with an ACL tear at the end of Pitt's victory over Duke, and the door swung wide open for Brown. The subsequent injury to Levance Fields places even more offense/scoring responsibility on Brown's shoulders.

Player Stats for the First Five Games

I have stats for the first 5 games. I wanted to wait until after the Old Spice Classic on the theory that the neutral court and opponents not hand picked by the program might give a better idea of how the team is progressing. I thought the offering of opponents was very good. UCF had a very experienced backcourt that featured an excellent three point shooter in Mike O'Donnell and good ball handlers in Chris Cartwright and Dave Noel. George Mason also threw an experienced squad at the young 'Cats. With Will Thomas & Folarin Campbell in the front court combined with Jordan Carter and John Vaughan's play in the backcourt challenged the 'Cats in both areas on virtually every possession. NCSU's frontcourt reputation preceeded them, but the backcourt play of Courtney Fells and Farnold Degand was (unpleasantly) surprisingly strong. A very good 3 game test for the squad.

Player	Min%	Shot%	Scr%	eFG%	PPWS	FTRate	ARate	TORate
S Reynolds	89.0	19.0	23.7	47.5	1.06	54.1	17.3	17.4
D Cunningham	78.5	22.5	17.9	47.1	0.98	17.6	4.7	20.3
R Redding	69.5	16.9	16.5	66.7	1.37	40.7	12.7	14.5
Shane Clark	68.0	22.7	24.1	56.8	1.23	34.1	11.9	11.5
C Drummond	54.0	24.5	19.3	62.1	1.15	41.4	8.2	14.8
Corey Fisher	45.0	27.8	26.6	46.5	0.94	27.9	16.3	4.7
Malcolm Grant	37.5	17.6	23.6	78.1	1.57	75.0	9.8	13.6
Corey Stokes	30.5	9.6	8.5	29.4	0.59	NA	7.2	12.6
Antonio Pena	20.5	7.2	7.6	28.6	0.53	128.6	7.2	19.5

I have ordered the data by playing time (Scottie is first because he has played 89.0% of the available minutes) and excluded players who have logged less than 20.0% of the minutes at their positions. Links to explanations for each of the stats except Scoring Percentage (Scr%) can be found in the Possession-based Stats Explained Section in the left margin.

To those who have been concerned that the front court would not get their touches and that Scottie might assume too large a role in the offense the numbers to date suggest that is not happening. Shane has gotten regular-type numbers of shots, while Drummond and Cunningham are not far behind. Dante's 17.9% is on the margins of role-player/regular status. If he continues to hit his shot his role most likely will grow a bit more. As suggested by their eFG and PPWS numbers both Shane and Casiem are very efficient. Scottie's Shot% (19.0) was lower than I thought it would be. Given his large amount of playing time it appears he is getting a lot of shots, but in reality he is about "average" for a 5 man line-up. His PPWS is slightly ahead of last season's ending number (1.04). Many have remarked on Reggie Redding's turnaround on offense. The numbers (his eFG & PPWS) back up that perception. I found it interesting that he is still, despite the increased minutes, a "role player" according to his Shot% (16.9 -- like Dante he is near "regular" type touches/shooting, but a bit farther away than Dante). Note also that Shot% and Scr% are fairly evenly distributed among the first six.