Ten Teams and the Conference, Three Questions Each, Part 5

The "skill camps" are quieting down and summer league is almost over. Teams are preparing for (or have just finished up) their European tour. Before our attention is consumed by the Olympics, a last few questions come to mind about Xavier and the Big East Conference going into the 2016-17 season...

Xavier
With the return of Trevon Bluiett, the X-men losses were limited to Jalen Reynolds and James Farr, two of Xavier's mainstays in the front court, along with wings Remy Abel (a senior) and Larry Austin who transferred to Vanderbilt. Coach Chris Mack anticipated the graduations of Farr and Abel, and knew Reynolds, a junior, would most likely depart at the end of the semester. He has most of those gaps covered by incoming freshmen (Eddie Ekiyor and Tyrique Jones) and transfer (RaShed Gaston).

1. Xavier's front court -- Who's got next? Mack lost seven years of experience with the simultaneous departures of James Farr and Jalen Reynolds. Although he has Sean O'Mara (6'10", 247 pounds), Tim Stainbrook (6'6", 200 pounds) and Kaiser Gates (6'8", 217 pounds) returning, he brought in Ekiyor and Jones with NLIs during the fall as insurance. When Jalen Reynolds made his departure official, Mack also signed Gaston, a fifth year senior out of Norfolk State in the MEAC. The front court starters in November will most likely be O'Mara at center with Gaston and Gates at the #3/#4 (and Bluiett playing up to the #3 at times). As the season goes on expect Ekiyor and Jones to find regular minutes in the rotation as well.

2. Is Edmond Sumner ready to take the next step? Despite a concussion that sidelined him for nearly two weeks at the beginning of conference play last season, Xavier point guard put together the kind of season that earned him five Freshman of the Week nods and one of three unanimous selections to the Big East Conference All-Freshman Team. His end-to-end speed and leaping ability kept opposing defenses off balance and gave the Musketeer offense an edge in transition. According to Sports Illistrated's Luke Winn, Sumner connected on 49.6% of layups and dunks while drawing 5.8 fouls per 40 minutes (with a 73% conversion rate at the line). Already beginning to fill out his 6'6" frame, Sumner's off season To Do List includes improving his jump shot (per Winn, Sumner was identified by multiple pro scouts as the guard with the highest ceiling, but his form on jumpers needed lots of work) where he completed only 29.7% of his two point attempts away from the basket and three point attempts where he converted 30.3% of his attempts. Better shot selection and higher completion rates next season will earn All-Conference First Team honors. Look for a second graduate transfer Malcolm Bernard, a 6'6" guard out of Florida A&M to push Sumner in fall practice.

3. Can Xavier get past the Sweet Sixteen? Since dropping Division 1 football and making basketball the center piece of their athletic programs, Xavier has pursued excellence with a commitment that borders on obsession. Over the past 33 seasons the Musketeers have earned 25 NCAA bids across four different conferences under six different head coaches. In the 44 previous seasons the Muskies earned a single NCAA bid (1961) on a run that ended in the first round. Consistency has been achieved, but Xavier continues to pursue excellence as their ceiling, the Regional Final (Elite Eight), has been reached only once, under coach Sean Miller (now at Arizona). Now that Villanova has won a National Championship, Xavier's recent performance is coming under the microscope. Mack's ceiling has been the Sweet Sixteen, reached three times in six tournament runs as coach at Xavier. As a member of the Big East, Mack has reached a single Sweet Sixteen (2015), and exited the 2016 tournament as a #2 seed, 66-63, on a last second corner three by #7 seed Wisconsin's Bronson Koenig. Xavier will get back to the NCAA tournament, though they may not draw another #2 seed. Sumner, Gates and Bluiett will all show improvement while Myles Davis will continue to provide the experience that anchors the back court. If the front court comes together expect a seed from #2 to #4 which carries a good chance to be among the last 16 teams in the tournament. Match-ups matter here, a good draw would put them back in the hunt.


The Big East Conference
The conference had its most successful season in close to a decade. The conference sent five members (50%) to the NCAAs, while Creighton advanced three rounds into the NIT field before being eliminated by BYU. The conference drew two #2 seeds in the NCAA and Villanova won the National Championship last April. The conference heard the names of two players called in the first round and of the NBA draft June 23, followed by two others who were drafted in the second round. Providence guard Kris Dunn was a lottery pick (5th spot) by Minnesota while freshman Henry Ellenson was drafted in the 18th spot by Detroit. Sophomore Isiah Whitehead (42nd by Utah, traded to the NY Nets) and junior Ben Bentil (51st, Boston) were taken in the second round.

1. Has the conference regained its high-major status? Some would debate the Big East's status, despite losing six programs, was always a high-major. The number of NCAA bids earned since the reformation (16) is more than the SEC (11) and the American Athletic Conference (10). The conference sent 50% of their members to the NCAA in their first (reformed) year (2014), 60% in 2015 and 50% in 2016. That is a slightly better percentage than the Big Ten (50%, 50% and 50%) and the Pac-12 (50%, 33%, 58%) over the same period. Pomeroy ranked the conference 5th, 3rd and 3rd in the seasons since the reformation; the RPI ranks were 4th, 2nd and 4th. Yet in the minds of too many pundits the conference took a major step back when the conference reformed before the 2013-14 season. Villanova, after repeatedly drawing high seeds, won the 2016 National Championship, which, hopefully, puts those whispers to bed. Recalling the Big East of the early 1980s however, it is clear the conference did not draw elite recognition until 1985, when the conference put St. John's, Georgetown and Villanova (all members of the reformed conference...) into the Final Four.

2. Can the conference improve on the four invitational tournament championships they earned last season? Marquette (Legends), Villanova (NIT Tip-Off) and Xavier (AdvoCare Invitational) win their respective invitational tournaments, the conference also had three other members reach their championship games. Those tournaments, most coming during the 2015 Thanksgiving Week, accounted for an attention grabbing 20-3 (0.870) record, which in turn shined a very favorable light on the conference's bid contenders for the post season. This season the prospects are good that Creighton (Paradise Jam), Villanova (Charleston Classic) and Xavier (Puerto Rico Tip-Off) will repeat against so-so fields.

Finding a sure number four is challenging. Seton Hall, slated for the AdvoCare Invitational, may be the best candidate. The Pirates open versus semi-home Florida, and should they win, draw a rematch with Gonzaga (who bounced them from the NCAA's last March) next. Both games should be a challenge, but Stanford, Miami or Iowa State awaiting the winner of the Hall's bracket, would be the last team. Any of them (especially Miami or Stanford) would be difficult opponents. Butler, DePaul and Marquette have interesting match-ups that could work in their favor. Butler, due to appear in the Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational will face Vanderbilt in the host semi-final, with the chance to meet Arizona if the Bulldogs advance to the championship game. Vanderbilt has a new coach and some significant roster changes, which suggest Marquette might be able to advance. But Arizona, the prohibitive favorite in the other semi-final, will be difficult. DePaul, set to compete in the (also) Continental Tire Las Vegas Classic faces Wyoming in the semi-final and either Missouri State or (most likely) Southern California. Beating Wyoming, also guided by a new coach, is probable, but USC? Not so much as Andy Enfield has a roster that should challenge in the Pac-12. Marquette will face Michigan in the semi-finals of the 2K Classic, and if they win would face either Pittsburgh or SMU, both of which have new head coaches and some roster turnover.

The other tournaments are problematic. Georgetown faces a loaded field in the Maui Invitational that includes UNC, Oregon and Wisconsin. St. John's will participate in the Battle 4 Atlantis whose field includes Baylor, Louisville and Michigan State (or and Wichita State also...). Providence is slated for the Emerald Coast Classic whose field includes Iowa, Virginia and Memphis (which hired Tubby Smith). The Friars will face Memphis first, with either Iowa or Virginia to follow.

3. Will the latest round of realignment, initiated this time by the Big 12, affect the Big East? Ugh, not again. Having left the five FBS members behind in 2013, the seven schools that reformed the Big East dedicated their attention and money to sports other than Bowl Division football. That, it would seem, settled the question that tore at the fabric of the conference for over 20 years. Just when one would have to believe the Big East is immune from the machinations of the 65 Power 5 conference members (plus Notre Dame) and the 64 members of the Group of Five (the other five FBS conferences and independents) ESPN's Andy Katz twitter set off a ripple of nostalgia with his tweet/blurb...

If UConn found a home for football, the Big East would seriously consider the Huskies for all other sports, according to a source with knowledge. The Big East would be a natural fit. So far the 10-team Big East only has all sports members, but doesn't offer Division I (FBS) football. UConn is in all sports in the AAC. If given the choice, the Huskies would want to be in the Big 12 in all sports. But the chances that offer ever comes is still too hard to predict now.
-- Andy Katz, July 20, 2016

The "a source with knowledge..." is of course unidentified leaving the reader with little to judge the value of the information (was the source a UConn insider? A Big East front office insider? One of the members schools? Scott Van Pelt?). Two weeks has cooled the nostalgia and slowly brought conference fans back to reality. UConn is not walking through that door. And even if the Huskies knocked (extremely unlikely) would the conference even answer? Consider that UConn would first have to leave the AAC, a process that would (per agreed upon procedures) take 27 months and a 10 million dollar exit fee (higher if exiting more quickly) to execute. UConn would have to (re)join the Big East before applying to the Big 12 for football only. NCAA regulations prohibit a school from applying to a conference for membership in a sport unless the school's "home conference" does not play that sport. Unwinding the sequence of actions that have to take place can be confusing, but two questions really put this to bed -- Does Connecticut honestly want to move only their football over to the Big 12? Does the Big 12 consider football only status preferable for UConn (or any other program they invite)? If the invitation is tendered it will be for all sports. And UConn will accept eagerly.

Scenarios that involve partial/split memberships are almost always for the benefit of the school who wants to maintain an unaffiliated status for their football program (ie Notre Dame, BYU and maybe Texas). Those arrangements do not promote stability for the conference that buys in. And for anyone connected to the Big East (conference employee, employee of a member school or even a fan) to entertain the notion of taking a school (much less UConn, nostalgia aside) with an FBS program into the conference suggests the entertainer learned nothing from the last three decades. Having put the FBS football issue aside, the only power 5 realignment variations that will impact the Big East would involve imploding conferences or the power 5 alignment leaving the NCAA and declining participation in the NCAA basketball tournament.

Signs of the Off season, 2011 -- Conference Realignment

Ahhhhhhhh...What Just Happened?!
Father Donahue's May 11 letter to alumni and students concludes the "quiet period" -- about a month in length -- since the April announcement that the Villanova Board of Trustees would not, as a result of a teleconference with the Big East football membership, take a much anticipated vote to accept an (apparently non-existent) "invitation" to join the Big East as an all sports member. This has been a very strange courtship. This marks the second time since 1996 that Villanova and the Big East have spent time and effort on whether Villanova should upgrade their football program to BCS level (the NCAA's FBS Division) and join the Big East football conference, thereby become an all-sports member. When parties engage in one round of failed negotiations, it is rare that they engage in a second round unless all are in agreement on the basic elements of the negotiation and are committed to a successful conclusion -- an agreement. When the resolution is uncertain, failing twice risks embarrassment, mistrust and ill will among the parties. That makes the twists and turns in this second round all the more interesting, for they seem to suggest that at least one, and possibly all of the three parties engaged (Villanova, Big East Commissioner John Marinatto and the football playing members who will vote to extend the invitation/accept Villanova's application) were either not in agreement at the start of the current process (then why make public announcements?) or missed (or misread or ignored?) critical signals given by the others over the past nine monthes. The awkward manner in which all parties have have muddled through the latest stages of this negotiation, coupled with a malaise that has settled over the Nova Nation as Villanova's review and planning has stretched into an eleventh month, have reminded me more than once of TS Eliot's poem on the melancholy of modern life...

The Love Song of Will D Cat
(with apologies to TS Eliot & Fr. Donahue)

Let us go then, you and I
Where the uprights split the autumn sky
Like a victor in celebration;
Let us go, through half-deserted hallways,
The whisperers having waylaid
Of restless nights over accounting ledgers
And huddled meetings with power brokers;
Using the numbers to shape an argument
Hoping with Luck others will relent
To lead you to an overwhelming question:
Oh, do not ask, "Are we in or not?"
Let us go and take our shot.

In the room the ADs come and go
Talking of John Marinatto.

The chili pot that bubbles and spills
The mesquite smoke that fills the kettle grills,
Finds the breech where lid and cast iron part,
Lingered, waiting for an autumn breeze
That carries it out to tease the revelers,
Slipped through the gap to stretch
And greet the October afternoon,
Or curled another layer on the cooking meat.

And indeed there will be time
To baste then barter burgers for dogs, ribs for pork
The simmering beans and cold hors d'oeuvre and beer
Will there be time? Will there be time?
To prepare the numbers to rally the faces you will face;
Will there be time to discard and revise,
And time binder the plan and present the options?
Time for you and time for me,
And time yet for another hundred indecisions,
And for a hundred more visions and revisions
Before the calling of the question and yeas and nays?

In the room the ADs come and go
Talking of John Marinatto.

And indeed there will be time
To wonder, "Do I dare?" and, "Do I dare?"
Time to tuck away spreadsheets, assume an indifferent air,
Resume the familiar company of frocks and kin...
(They will say: "He would not go all in")
My stadium deal, facilities construction up to my chin
My traditions, rich if modest, but punctuated with wins...
(They will say: "But how his endowments and margins are thin!")
Do I dare
Disturb the gridiron club?
In a minute there is time
For decisions and revisions which a minute will reverse.

For I know them all already, known them all...
From the diamond, the hardcourt, the pitch, the track
I have measured out my life by the season ticket pack;
I know the voices dying with a dying fall
Beneath the whispers from a farther room,
So how should I presume?

So What is Next?
Father Donahue's May 11 letter did not mark a decision point or deadline date. The Big East Commissioner and Villanova President did not outline/define a next step in this process. Will the three parties simply wait and react to events in the conference landscape this summer? Each appears to have some thinking to do...

John Marinatto -- this negotiation won't be a bullet point on the Big East Commissioner's resume. The (from reports...) tepid reaction from football faction has been interpreted by fans (and general public?) as a fumble by the league office -- why did they not give Villanova a heads up on the plan's problems? The official "non-response" coupled with the ridicule offered by some fans suggests the basketball and football factions are farther apart today than any time since the somber days following the Raid of 2003 and Boston College's defection, a particularly bad state given the uncertainties ahead. The survivors of 2003 rallied around a strong conference commissioner and a couple of seasoned and respected Athletic Directors to forge a covenant and a plan that ushered in some of the conference's finest hours on the hardwood and the gridiron, but within the past year several conference members openly lobbied for consideration by the Big Ten, while the Athletic Director of a third member has repeatedly ignored a conference gag order on Villanova's application, disparaging the commissioner while discussing details of Villanova's application with local media. The Commissioner's ability to forge a consensus on a course of action for the entire conference will depend to a extent on his credibility and standing among the conference membership. And right now that has become one more problem to address.

The Nova Nation -- The dynamics of the parties to the negotiation and the process by which Villanova developed a plan to upgrade their FCS football program to the FBS level will make a good exercise for the VSB, but right now the requirement is to fix the problem, not fix the blame. The Stadium Question has been the first agenda item since the 1996-97 study on a football upgrade. Every discussion in the past 15 years has come to The Stadium Question...and stalled. The process to study and muster resources for an upgrade addressed everyone of the other outstanding issues (media market, practice facilities, scholarships/financial backing), but The Stadium Issue was the weakest part of Villanova's proposal and everyone knew that going into the teleconference. The Nova Nation can muster a bit of righteousness over how indelicately this may have been handled, but the 18,500 seat capacity is on it's face inadequate; and any significant rewrite of the plan has to include an action plan to bring Villanova into a home field that is comparable to the conference's inventory of playing venues. There may well be multiple agendas at work among the football membership, but presenting a small stadium with virtually no concrete plan for scaling up put the Wildcats into the position of relying too heavily on good will and a shared desire to stabilize conference membership as the argument that would carry the day. Instead, the Stadium Question only provided cover to any faction operating with an ulterior motive. The University will most likely not file notification to upgrade with the NCAA by the May 31 deadline. Villanova wants to build a national profile, and competing as an all-sports member in a BCS conference will help the University realize that goal. Villanova has developed and offers championship-level athletic programs for both men and women in a wide variety of athletics; it can do the same with FBS football.

The Football Schools -- a sampling from blogs and message boards around the conference suggests football-first fans are increasingly vocal in their unhappiness with the conference leadership and anxious about their (football membership) options. The 16 (soon to be 17) membership size of the conference however, with only 8 (soon to be 9) slots taken for FBS football programs, limits expansion opportunities. The football schools are anxious because...

1. They don't offer a particularly competitive product. Last per, per West Virginia Athletic Director Oliver Luck, was rock bottom for the conference football schools. No team finished in the Top 25; the conference was 0-6 against ranked opponents and 6-14 against fellow BCS opponents.

2. The lack of sustained success on the gridiron could well result in the loss of standing as a BCS conference.

3. The conference has no presence in the two largest media markets within it's footprint -- New York City and Philadelphia. Pretty weird, no?

Will adding additional all-sport members from a candidate pool of (largely) CUSA teams significantly enhance the conference's hand in TV revenue negotiations and boost the conference's football standing within the BCS fraternity? In the very, very unlikely event the Big 12 Conference implodes this summer the Big East Conference would have limited options -- adding 3-4 new members might bring the football membership to 12, but would push the basketball membership beyond 20.

The Annual Big East Meeting
The May 23-25 meeting will most likely have the football members' concerns very high on the agenda. If Oliver Luck's latest interview provides a clue, the football members will avoid the "Villanova pothole (6th paragraph of the story)" as they thumb through CUSA resumes, looking for that "right fit, provide revenue" candidate.