Vinny Pezzimenti Moment -- Week 8

The 'Cats stalled at #16 again last week. I will be interested to see how Vinny reacts to Villanova's loss at DePaul last week. It was an ugly game that the 'Cats did not seem to want to play. While I believe they will remain in the Top 25 complements of their rebound win over Pittsburgh on Sunday, I would not be surprised to see them lose a spot or two. Forget those nine voters who continue to leave Villanova off their ballots completely. The Wildcats will be lucky if they don't lose another voter or two.

My Big East Blogger Poll for this week:

1 - Georgetown
2 - Marquette
3 - Pittsburgh
4 - Notre Dame
5 - Villanova
6 - West Virginia
7 - Syracuse
8 - Louisville
9 - Connecticut
10 - Providence
11 - South Florida
12 - DePaul
13 - Seton Hall
14 - St. John's
15 - Cincinnati
16 - Rutgers


Player of the Week: Luke Harangody, Notre Dame

Rookie of the Week: Donte Greene, Syracuse

Who's Up...Who's Down...
Changes are coming to the top quartile. I swapped Georgetown and Marquette again. The Warriors dropped a home game against West Virginia on Sunday, so they could not stay #1. I left Pittsburgh at #3, but the loss to Villanova (albeit by a single point) illustrates their vulnerability at the point guard spot. Pitt had 22 turnovers, 5 from Ramon alone. Right now Coach Dixon has Ronald Ramon and Brad Wanamaker sharing a little (with Keith Benjamin and Gilbert Brown splitting the wing duties). The Panthers may be in for some frusturating outings until Fields gets back. Notre Dame, Syracuse and West Virginia moved up to varying degrees based on their strong conference starts. The Irish have been on a pretty good run lately. Their opening win over West Virginia is all the more impressive given WVU's upset of Marquette. So I moved them into the #4 spot. The Orange also jumped a few spots, having beaten St. John's and then South Florida on their homestand opening. And lastly the Blue Demons who took down the Wildcats and then the Friars moved to the last seed in the BET. Villanova, Louisville, Connecticut, Seton Hall and Rutgers, all having lost at least one game, also lost rankings. Of the three seasons since the Big East expanded to 16 teams this may prove to be the most wide open race yet. Injuries and youth have scrambled the pecking order in place since the late 1990s. Hang on to your seats, this is going to be a bumpy ride...

This week's OWs...
Dominque Jones continues to make his case for ROY, scoring 23 and 24 in successive games against Rutgers and Syracuse (a road game). DePaul's Mac Koshwal had a decent double-double against the Wildcats on Thursday, but turned in an average game against Geoff McDermott and the Providence Friars, even though the Blue Demons won their second Big East game in a row to start the season 2-0. Speaking of Blue Demon freshmen, Dar Tucker was hobbled for the Villanova game but turned in a 15 point performance in 20 minutes of play against Providence. My vote goes to Donte Greene of Syracuse though. Greene turned in two 20+ point games to get Syracuse a 2-0 start to their Big East season. Greene scored 22 against St. John's and 21 against South Florida. As for the Player of the Week, I voted for Luke Harangody of Notre Dame. Harangody turned in two double-doubles, the first against West Virginia (29 and 16) in Notre Dame's opener, and then the "and one" against Hasheem Thabeet (14 and 10) and the Connecticut Huskies.

Vinny Pezzimenti Moment -- Week 4

Vinny must have liked what he saw (in the Penn game), because he ranked Villanova #23 on his AP ballot last week according to pollstalker (I'm not stalking you Vinny, honest). The Pollstalker site is very useful as it lists the contingent of AP voters (lots of familiar names -- Seth Davis, Dustin Dow, Hoops Weiss, DPO, Todd Rosiak and Ed Graney among others) and their ballots. Which allowed me to answer a question I had asked elsewhere -- "Who voted for Virginia??". Virginia lost to Seton Hall by 14 on a neutral court on November 24, and actually received more Top 25 votes than Seton Hall. It turns out that even last week Roger Clarkson of the The Athens Banner-Herald (I'm guessing Georgia...) ranked the Cavs #14 on his ballot. In Roger's defense, there were 13 other voters who ranked UVa on their ballots. But even Dick Vitale did not include them guys. I wonder how they will rank Virginia this week. They lost 70-68 to Syracuse on their homecourt last week.

My Big East Blogger Poll for this week:

1 - Georgetown
2 - Pittsburgh
3 - Marquette
4 - Villanova
5 - West Virginia
6 - Louisville
7 - Providence
8 - Connecticut
9 - Notre Dame
10 - Seton Hall
11 - Syracuse
12 - St. John's
13 - South Florida
14 - DePaul
15 - Rutgers
16 - Cincinnati

Player of the Week: Luke Harangody, Notre Dame

Rookie of the Week: Malcolm Grant, Villanova

Who's Up...Who's Down...
Louisville lost their 2^nd game of the season (third in a row to Dayton -- bet that series goes on hiatus for awhile...) on Saturday. The Cardinals have gone 3-2 since losing Padgett. Given their close win over Miami (OH) last weekend, it seems they have problems with teams with big centers who play lower paced offensive schemes...Not a good sign for matching up with Georgetown. I moved them down 3 positions this week. I had them ranked #2 going into the season, but the injuries to Palacios and Padgett take two experienced players off the court, while Holloway's surgery (and Goode's academics) keep possible replacements out as well. That is a rock and a hard place for any team. Coach Pitino benched Sosa and Smith through the end of the Dayton game too. Hopefully whatever circumstance that led to that decision has been resolved. Both Marquette and Villanova continued to win, so moving them up seemed appropriate. Providence on the other hand also too a loss last week (to the A10's Rhode Island), so dropped them behind West Virginia, and moved the 'Eers up. This is unexpected for me. Some had picked WVU to finish fairly high under Coach Huggins, but I confess I was not one of them. That 2 point loss to the #12 Tennessee may not have been a fluke. They continue to be ranked #1 in Pythagorean Winning Percentage on Ken Pomeroy's Stats Page. Their two wins last, a 29 point victory over Auburn (the Big East SEC Challenge) on a (sort of...) neutral court in Alabama followed by a 24 point win over a resurgent Duquesne, add to their resume. Syracuse dropped another game, this time to Rhode Island, who also beat Providence this week. If I were ranking the Rams in this week's poll they would be somewhere around 4 - 5. I dropped the Orange two more spots and moved Notre Dame, who has been munching on low-major pastries lately, but doing handily, and Seton Hall, who admitedly has had problems of their own (a close road loss to Penn State) lately, up. The bottom quartile remains pretty much where it was, though South Florida seems to be making some noise.

Some good performances in winning efforts this week. I decided to vote for Luke Harangody, on the strength of his K State and Northern Illinois games last week. He scored 33 points, and grabbed 26 rebounds in 2 very nice games. I also considered Dominic James, on his 20 point game against Wisconsin. The USF Bull's Dominique Jones dropped another bunch of points (55 to be exact) against Richmond and UAB last week. If Jones keeps this up, and South Florida can work their way into the second or third quartile of the Big East, Jones may find himself in the conversation about Rookie of the Year at the end of the season. How good is Jones really? Only time and more play will tell, but consider that he has put Solomon Bozeman, a promising backcourt player who logged about 75% of the minutes between the #1 and #2 last season, on the bench (Bozeman still gets minutes, but only about 10 per game...), and redshirt freshman Dante Curry, a very well regarded recruit who was slated to compete for a spot this season, has packed his bags and is looking for another school. On the expectation that there will be other weeks for Jones I am going with a fan choice this week in Malcolm Grant, the largely unheralded third member of Villanova's true freshman class. Malcolm scored 18 points in 16 minutes off the bench on Thursday to spark the Wildcat comeback against LSU. Villanova was down 21 points with 8:50 to play when Grant went off. He was 3-4 from beyond the arc and scored 9-10 from the free throw line on a night when the other Wildcats could do no better than 14-24 from the stripe. He also had 2 assists during those 8+ minutes. His 13 points in 3 minutes was a great individual effort. Dante Cunningham's put back with 2.2 (seconds) remaining was the only Nova lead of the night, and came on Grant's only missed shot in that stretch, a runner in the lane. Coach Wright put the ball in his hands on the last timeout in a huge show of confidence. Grant will come off the bench this year for the 'Cats, who have a very stacked backcourt.

Big East Freshmen: The 2007 All-Rookie Team

Beginning in late December of 2006 I extracted the weekly player data for Big East freshmen, sophomores and transfers from Ken Pomeroy's website. I wanted to monitor the progress of those specific groups of players. I had a number of questions about the freshmen in particular:

1. How would those players tabbed as elite (including the preseason ROY) actually fare during the season?
2. Who among the relatively unheralded players would emerge for honors?
3. From the numbers which players may be flying under the radar for next season?
4. Is freshman fatigue a measurable phenomena?

I was able to track a total of 39 BE freshmen on a weekly basis. Pomeroy posted the possession-based stats for players who earned at least 10% of the playing time for their position. The average Offensive Rating for those 39 "notable" Big East freshman was 99.6. It is not uncommon for freshmen to have offensive ratings in the 80s/90s. Kyle Lowry for example had a rating of 97.8 as a freshman and virtually exploded to 113.4 his sophomore year. The table below contains the eleven members of the All-Big East rookie team sorted in descending order by Offensive Rating (%ORtg). Reviewing the playing time (Min%) and Offensive Rating, one can build an argument for including these players. While a 14% increase in offensive efficiency (%ORtg) is not typical, note that among this group, even a modest growth of 6% - 8% would place most of these All-Rookies among the Top 200 in D1 ball...

Name	Coll	Min%	%ORtg	%Poss	%Shot	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	DR%	FRate	ARate	TORate
Harangody	NDU	51.4	112.0	27.5	29.8	45.9	1.04	14.8	18.2	39.3	12.1	12.1
Butler	WVU	57.6	107.1	22.5	24.3	55.0	1.13	6.9	12.0	28.5	9.4	15.2
Reynolds	Nova	74.1	107.0	27.7	26.5	47.6	1.09	1.5	10.0	49.0	30.6	22.3
Harvey	Hall	87.1	106.2	25.6	22.6	48.2	1.11	4.7	5.7	45.1	24.6	19.5
Sosa	L'Ville	62.6	104.4	24.9	25.4	49.2	1.07	2.0	7.3	38.5	22.2	18.7
Summers	GTown	65.7	101.8	22.0	21.9	49.2	1.09	8.5	9.5	40.5	8.0	23.8
Dyson	UConn	75.7	100.7	24.4	26.7	42.1	0.97	4.0	8.4	47.1	14.6	16.4
Jackson	NDU	69.6	100.0	19.6	15.3	44.8	0.98	4.5	8.4	53.5	26.7	24.6
Harris	Cuse	54.1	100.0	23.8	19.8	43.5	1.02	10.9	21.3	76.5	14.5	20.3
Vaughn	'Nati	81.7	99.5	26.4	28.6	45.1	0.96	3.0	10.1	21.9	25.0	17.1
Thabeet	UConn	61.2	96.2	15.0	11.0	55.4	1.10	10.1	16.8	95.0	3.0	24.5

Pomeroy provides explanations for each of the columns (except PPWS, which you can find at the Big Ten Wonk site) on his "Individual Stats Primer" page. The numbers shown confirm in most cases, the legitimacy of each player's selection to the All-Rookie Team, despite the fact that several were not household (the Big East household anyway) names at the beginning of the season.

• The Surprises (good ones) -- Luke Harangody, Da'Sean Butler, Scottie Reynolds, DeJuan Summers, Tory Jackson and Deonta Vaughn. Harangody, Butler, Summers, Jackson (especially) and Vaughn were certainly not tabbed in the preseason as candidates for post season honors. Reynolds was an MDAA, so the surprise here is that he took the ROY honors. A few remarks about several of the pleasant surprises:
  • Luke Harangody -- his offensive numbers are set up by his %OR (percentage of offensive rebounds). 14.8% is among the best in D1. His offensive rebounding set up a good many close in shots which fed his (see his line above) possessions (%Poss) and shots (%Shots). Virtually all of his FGAs were 2s, so his eFG% is probably also his FGM%, which means he hit almost ½ of his FGAs. Not bad. Note that both his OR% and DR% are comparable to Paul Harris & Hasheem Thabeet, 2 players who received a good deal more recognition (Ken Pomeroy excepted) for their defense than did Harangody. There have been quite a few posters who claim that Notre Dame does not play defense (I mean before the Winthrop game), but with their offense how much defense did they really need? The Irish frontcourt rotation of Kurz (starter), Harangody (starter), Hillesland and Zeller provided "Just Enough" defense to win, for most of the season. His %OR, TORate and %Shots are Top 100 level for D1, while his DR%, %ORtg and %Poss are Top 500. The kid is solid.
  • Da'Sean Butler is one of the two most surprising names on the All-Rookie team. While well regarded locally as a senior HS baller in Bloomfield, NJ, Butler was an "also..." on most WVU recruiting evaluations. That he as a freshman logged 57.6% of the minutes at his position (4) in Beilein's system (a coach with a penchant for redshirting freshmen) suggests he impressed JB, no easy task. I believe that playing time and the "role" nature of most positions in Beilein's system hurt Butler when ROY candidates were discussed. With a reputation for athleticism, Butler may get a chance to show a lot more as an individual in Bob Huggins' system.
  • Tory Jackson -- logged 38% of the minutes in the Irish back court before Kyle McAlarney was arrested for illegal drug possession at the start of the Big East season. Through the end of the season Jackson's minutes shot up to 69.6% because he was called on to replace McAlarney in Brey's system. After stepping back the first month (fairly common when playing time and the player's role within the team increases dramatically...), his numbers began to recover and by season's end (with a bad loss to Winthrop excepted) he was slightly ahead of his pre Big East season efficiencies (but with nearly twice the PT). McAlarney will re-enter Notre Dame next month, but I suspect Coach Brey will play both in Notre Dame's backcourt next season.
• The Surprises (bad ones) -- Jerome Dyson, Paul Harris and Hasheem Thabeet. Granted these players had good years by freshman standards. But much more was anticipated.
  • Paul Harris -- the near unanimous preseason ROY selection, based largely on his ability to lock down the player in front of him. He was far more likely to produce offensively from a steal and break away than off a set shot developed in a half court set. For a player who was going to a team noted for it's zone defense that ought to have been a warning sign. Ultimately, Harris started a single game (Colgate) and watched his minutes decline during the Big East regular season (from a 25.5 mpg in the OOC, to 18.6 in the Big East regular season) only to recover slightly in the BET and NIT. While definitely an asset when the ball was loose on the court -- his OR% is Top 500; his DR% is Top 100 -- his offensive production declined about 10% through the first month of the Big East regular season. He, like Lowry, compensated for a weak eFG% by getting to the line fairly regularly (FRate of 76.5 indicates that for every 4 FGAs he took 3 FTAs...).
  • If Hamady N'Diaye had Hasheem Thabeet's numbers Rutgers fans would be ecstatic. The Scarlet Knights would have played in the BET (no more, no less). But Husky fans expected more from their team. Thabeet went to Storrs with the reputation for shot blocking defense and inside scoring through athleticism. The defense part was correct, as Thabeet finished with 15.3 %Blk, (good for a #6 rank in D1) and Top 500 rankings for OR% and DR%. His offensive stats by contrast are a paradox: stats for field goal efficiency (eFG%) and ability to get to the free throw line (FRate) suggest he should have been more dominant on offense, but his %ORtg is a surprisingly low 96.2 (for every 100 possessions Thabeet scored 96 or so points). He struggled to convert free throws (0.513 FTM) and turned the ball over nearly 1 time in 4 when he had possession (24.5 TORate). Two areas to work on over the summer. Given that his role on offense did not expand over the course of the season, his %Poss and %Shot remained within 1% of their post OOC value throughout the Big East season, it was clear the staff and his teammates never regarded him as reliable option on offense.
• No Surprise At All (thankfully) -- Eugene Harvey and Edgar Sosa. Two New York City guards who helped their respective teams. Sosa, with more to surround him than Seton Hall's Harvey, provided a sure handle and reliable (but not offensively dominant) shot for the Cardinals. Seton Hall was decimated by graduations and transfers in the wake of the Orr-to-Gonzalez coaching changeover, but Gonzo will bring in complementary talent for Harvey.