#CatsInSpain -- 5 Takeaways

The Seniors Will Lead (Along with Jalen Brunson)

I think this trip gives Josh (Hart) and Kris (Jenkins) to really get a sense of what it means to be a senior captain in this program.
-- Jay Wright, 8/1/2016

The Villanova coach got his wish as Hart definitely emerged as the go-to guy on the tour. Hart was the leading scorer in each of the three Wildcat wins, and as his individual stats suggest, the offense looked to him for buckets when needed. The table below charts his production in each of the three games:

Hart	% Min	Poss %	Off Rating	PPWS	eFG%	OR%	TO%	A Rate	FT Rate	DR%
Game #1	67.5	26.0	108.5	1.30	63.6	12.3	14.3	16.4	27.3	16.5
Game #2	85.0	34.8	110.2	1.37	69.4	17.4	17.4	23.5	22.2	30.4
Game #3	65.0	34.1	111.5	1.47	65.4	11.0	21.2	8.9	46.2	36.4

The second game was the most competitive (87-80 Villanova) and Hart's minutes and possession rates increased accordingly. "Josh was dominant, by far the best player on the floor today...when we needed a bucket, we went to him every time and he came through." stated Villanova head coach Jay Wright after the game. The numbers back up what the coach's eyes saw -- a 35% possession rate combined with a shot rate of 33.4% and an assist rate of 23.5% -- the wing powered the offense either by taking the shot or passing to the open player. Hart's 27 points represented 31% of Villanova's points that Sunday. Hart's possession rate in all three games was higher than should be expected in regular season play (Villanova is in trouble if Hart is reponsible for more than 24-25% of the teams' possessions) that he could assume that large a role and do it without loss of efficiency (note his Off Ratings in games #2 and #3) is especially promising for the season as they suggest he can assume an even larger role in the offense (his possession rate, per Pomeroy, was 23.6 with an offensive rating of 117.7 -- #5 on Pomeroy's list of POYs) without loss of efficiency. The Big East has at least five legitimate candidates for Player of the Year, but Hart will most likely be named the favorite on Media Day next October.

2. The #5 is Unresolved.
This question surrounding the center position took two more twists on the eve of the trip as Villanova revealed that Omari Spellman had eligibility questions (unrelated to academic achievement) even as they announced that Darryl Reynolds would not make the trip due to a late injury incurred in practice. Reynolds should be healed before Fall Practice, but Spellman's eligibility questions may bleed into the season. For the tour Wright had the opportunity to take a long look at freshman Dylan Painter, a 6'9" 215 pound center out of Hershey Pennsylvania. The results were mixed:

Painter	% Min	Poss %	Off Rating	PPWS	eFG%	OR%	TO%	A Rate	FT Rate	DR%
Game #1	65.0	21.5	114.6	1.42	66.7	17.1	17.9	5.7	22.2	8.5
Game #2	45.0	9.1	120.0	1.04	50.0	0.0	0.0	14.4	100.0	28.7
Game #3	65.0	10.8	66.7	0.80	40.0	5.5	16.8	0.0	0.0	8.1

Painter struggled with early foul trouble in game #2, but the video also suggests he struggled versus more experienced opponents. Note his defensive rebounding numbers in games #1 and #3 were well below an expected rebounding rate for Division 1 centers and his possession rate imploded versus the more competitive teams in games #2 and #3. If the video of game #2 is a good indication, Painter also struggles with the switching intricacies of Villanova's man-to-man defense (hardly surprising given that even the veterans miss assignments early in the season). This is not a knock on Painter. He is a freshman as the numbers suggest and will improve with conditioning and experience.

If Painter drew most of the minutes during the tour, Eric Paschall was the designated starter at the #5 for each of the three games. Fans finally saw the 6'7" 240 pound transfer out of Fordham perform under (exhibition) game conditions, even if the (normally) stretch #4 was playing up a position:

Paschall	% Min	Poss %	Off Rating	PPWS	eFG%	OR%	TO%	A Rate	FT Rate	DR%
Game #1	52.5	19.4	105.3	1.21	57.1	21.2	12.3	0.0	14.3	15.9
Game #2	60.0	22.0	65.2	1.13	50.0	6.2	29.1	0.0	0.0	5.4
Game #3	55.0	32.0	112.3	1.38	68.2	6.5	13.4	0.0	72.7	28.7

Like Painter, Paschall struggled with his low post counterparts in game #2, but managed better rebounding rates even as his possession rate dropped. Through all three games Paschall shot 15-26 from the field, but only 1-10 from beyond the arc (the lone conversion came in game #3). He appears to be a more mobile version of JayVaughn Pinkston, a starter who also rotated between #4 and #5 but graduated in 2015 along with Darrun Hilliard. In a post game #2 column NBC's Rob Dauster opined about a Villanova version of Golden State's Death Lineup of Brunson, Phil Booth, Hart, Mykal Bridges and Kris Jenkins. but I think if Paschall can find the range, he would fit in at the #5 better than either Jenkins or Bridges. He has three more months to work on it. As for a more proto-typical low post rotation, the Wildcats have about 92 days, to idenfiy and develop it, or find a reasonable alternative.

3. Jay Wright Loves to Play Two Ball Handling Guards Together
And he will have that option again this season with Jalen Brunson and Phil Booth. Each started and alternated the ball handling responsibilities in each of the three exhibition games. Brunson was on the floor consistently for at least 75% of the available time (Burson averaged 31 minutes per game), Booth was plagued by turnovers and poor shooting in game #2 and poor shooting in game #3. The junior guard registered assist rates of 30%, 25% and 23.3% in each of the games, suggesting that when he looks for teammates he can find them.

4. Mykal Bridges is the Early Favorite for Big East Sixth Man
Who will start continues to be one of the favorite off season pasttimes of the Nova Nation, and Mikal Bridges has a loyal contingent who have slotted him at the #3 or #4 (with Hart and/or Jenkins playing down). Bridges will be first off the bench however, without a doubt. On a roster with the (publicly anyway) avowed philosophy of "positionless basketball", Bridges, a natural #3, is the only player who can legitimately play up or down two positions from his spot. Seeing him dribble versus pressure would make me nervous as would seeing him defend against a legitimate 260 pound 6'11" center, but Bridges can cover either for shot stretches. And that makes him far more valuable as a "first in" substitute than a starter. Villanova has had success with versitile sophomore sixth men as Josh Hart and Phil Booth can attest. Bridges can be that and more, as Wright will have some flexibility when deciding who to take out. Bridges, when he subs in, will force the opposing coach to reassess the match ups and adjust. Advantage Villanova.

5. Turnovers...Life Without Arch
Villanova's turnover rate in 2015-16 was 16.1%, due in no small measure to senior point guard Ryan Arcideacono's 14.1% turnover rate, coupled with equally impressive TO rates of 13.3% and 12.7% from Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins repsectively. Arch is gone to the NBA, Jalen Brunson and Phil Booth will be tasked with insuring that continues this season. Villanova's evolution to a perimeter-oriented offense means there will be fewer second chance opportunities (offensive rebounds) and oppertunities for points at the free throw line (for the four factors followers that means a lower free throw rate), which places a greater emphasis on lower turnover rates as well. The Wildcats will have to insure that the maximum possible possessions end with a field goal (or free throw) attempt.

Keeping in mind this was a three game exhibition tour, the turnover rates logged (see table below) suggest there is room for improvement:

	Team	Brunson	Booth	Hart	Jenkins
Game #1	20	24.9	23.8	14.3	13
Game #2	19.2	26.6	7.2	17.4	17.9
Game #3	27.1	52.4	42.2	21.2	32
Overall	22.2	32.3	24.7	17.9	19.4
2015-16	16.3	20.2	19.3	13.3	12.7

The 'Cats no doubt left Spain with three wins, a good many fond memories and several notebooks of areas for improvement that will, no doubt be areas of emphasis when working in small groups and later in team practices. The team will not start where they left off from last spring. They will be another work in progress this season.

#CatsInSpain: Day 2, Exhibition 1

A Very Brief Recap
The Villanova Wildcats defeated a Spanish Select team 89-49 in the first of three exhibition games they will play on their eight day tour of Spain. The game, played in the Palau Municipal d’Esport Badalona, home court for the Divina Seguros Joventut of the ACB League in Badalona, drew an exhibition-sized crowd as Villanova, playing the first game since winning the NCAA National Championship last April, outscored and out rebounded (49 to 29) a team composed of players drawn from teams in Spain's ACB League, their top tier professional league. The ACB is ranked in the top three leagues in Europe. Josh Hart paced the Wildcats with a 16 point performance that included 5-11 shooting (2-5 from beyond the arc) and 3-4 from the free throw line. Hart also collected seven rebounds and dished three dimes while pacing Villanova to their 40 point win. Hart was one of four Villanova players to score double digit points. Rising sophomore Jalen Brunson scored 15 points in 30 minutes of play and led the team with five assists, freshman Dylan Painter added 14 points on 6-9 shooting and rising sophomore Mikal Bridges chipped in 12 points in 24 minutes while gathering four rebounds, three steals and two assists. The Wildcats led 56-26 at half-time. After opening the game 0-2 to the Spaniards Villanova went on a 9-0 run to take a lead that they never relinquished.

The starting lineup included three 2015-16 starters, Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins, from the championship game and two new starters, rising junior Phil Booth, Villanova's sixth man in 2015-16 and red shirt sophomore Eric Paschall, a Fordham transfer who joined the Wildcats at the end of the 2015 season. Paschall played the center position in place of rising senior Darryl Reynolds who sustained a tailbone injury days before the team departed and did not make the trip. The Wildcats were also without heralded freshman Omari Spellman who the NCAA has yet to clear for play. Coach Jay Wright considers this an excellent opportunity to see what his three other newest front court players, Paschall, Painter and red shirt freshman Tim Delaney, can do in the position. The triumph was not without a price as rising sophomore Donte DiVencenzo sprained his ankle in the third quarter and was forced to leave the game. It is not clear whether DiVencenzo will appear in the other two exhibition games.

A Closer Look at the Game
Working from an incomplete box score posted on Villanova's website that showed individual minutes played, shooting, rebounding and assists for each of the 11 Wildcat players who drew some playing time (but lacks turnovers, steals, fouls and blocks), I can work out several shot efficiency statistics, but cannot estimate the number of possessions. The box is located here for those who wish to see the partial detailed statistics. The shot efficiency, rebounding and assist rate statistics:

Player	%Min	eFG%	PPWS	Ast%	FT Rate	OR%	DR%
Jalen Brunson	75.0	77.8	1.59	23.8	11.1	0.0	7.4
Kris Jenkins	55.0	26.9	0.60	11.9	7.7	0.0	20.2
Josh Hart	67.5	63.6	1.30	16.4	27.3	12.3	16.5
Eric Paschall	52.5	57.1	1.21	0.0	14.3	21.2	15.9
Phil Booth	45.0	75.0	1.50	30.3	0.0	6.2	18.5
Donte DiVencenzio	35.0	25.0	0.48	10.4	8.3	23.8	31.7
Tom Leibig	10.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	0.0	0.0	55.6
Mikal Bridges	60.0	71.4	1.52	12.0	28.6	9.3	9.3
Tim Delaney	27.5	0.0	0.00	10.1	0.0	0.0	10.1
Denny Grace	7.5	0.0	0.00	0.0	0.0	0.0	74.1
Dylan Painter	65.0	66.7	1.42	5.7	22.2	17.1	8.5

Defensive rebounding rates of 55.6 and 74.1 look great, but realize that Tom Leibig and Denny Grace, two of Villanova's newest walk-ons, gathered two rebounds apiece during their respective four and three minute runs. It does not necessarily follow that Leibig would have gathered 20 rebounds had he played the entire game. With "rates" stats that exclude time played, expect distortions at the lower margins. As for detailed explanations for the stats, look here (Ken Pomeroy's website). The one that should be explained here is PPWS, which stands for Points Per Weighted Shot. This is a variation on the True Shot stat developed for NBA players by Kevin Pelton, except that the last step (dividing the anticipated points by two, which converts the stat to a one number, percentage expression, that includes field goals and free throws). PPWS answers the question "How many points were scored each time the player took a field goal attempt?" while True Shot answers "What are the chances a shot will be completed if the field goal attempt is taken?". I prefer PPWS as it gives me the answer "in points" rather than "completion rate". Lacking the number of turnovers committed by each team, I cannot calculate the number of possessions for each team. Given all of the other inputs, I have an estimate (that I know is too low) of 62 possessions for Villanova. Since turnovers "add" possessions, I know that estimate is too low. Most exhibition games come in with a (wide) range of 73-85 possessions, which suggests that the Wildcats committed 10-20 turnovers.

A few observations:
1. Eric Paschall started at the #5, but Dylan Painter drew most of the minutes (26) at the position. The staff must have liked what they saw. Given Spellman's status, it is probably prudent to get the freshman as many minutes as possible in Spain and hope -- worst case -- he and Darryl Reynolds will develop into a serviceable rotation (with assistance from Paschall, etc.).
2. Brunson, Hart, Painter and Bridges (in that order) drew the most minutes. While not an expectation for games going forward, I suspect we will see Brunson and Hart, along with Bridges and Booth emerge as the nucleus this season.
3. The scoring was balanced with seven players (Hart, Brunson, Painter, Bridges, Booth, Paschall and Jenkins) scoring between 16 and eight points apiece, but the shooting efficiency was not. Brunson, Booth and Bridges were the most efficient scorers, followed by Painter, Hart and Paschall. Jenkins has work to do.
4. Note that Hart and Bridges drew the highest FT Rates -- they took contact while scoring, which suggests they went to the bucket to complete plays. Those two are not the most durable players on the squad. I would feel better had Jenkins, Painter and Paschall mixed it up more.
5. The squad had an offensive rebounding rate of 47.2% (the 'Cats gathered 17 of the 36 missed field goal attempts under their own basket) is crazy high, though consistent with exhibition games and the European opponent. The Spanish Select team was limited to an offensive rebounding rate of 19.4%, again suggesting rebounding was not a priority in their game plan or possibly their style of play. Those numbers will not hold up in Division 1 play, but clearly Painter, Paschall and DiVencenzo have no problems crashing the boards. The defensive rebounding rates were more evenly distributed with DiVencenzo, Jenkins, Booth, Hart and Paschall leading the way. Painter was strangely ineffective at that end of the floor, was the Select team center more effective in blocking him out?
6. Booth and Brunson led the assist rates, suggesting they will continue the duel point guard look into this season. I hope. The approach creates a lot of flexibility on offense.

Next...
The team will travel to Madrid Saturday and play exhibition games versus ACB Select teams Sunday August 7 and Tuesday August 9 in Madrid, before returning home Wednesday August 10.