Showing posts with label David Claerbaut. Show all posts
Showing posts with label David Claerbaut. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Asset Efficiency

by Ray Floriani

LYNDHURST, NJ - Coaches preach about doing positive things and cutting down on mistakes. Outside of the realm of putting the ball in the basket, some of the positives are hitting an open teammate, grabbing a rebound, swiping the ball or rejecting a shot. On the other side, throwing the ball out of bounds simply gives the coach a few more grey hairs. In his 1999 book. ‘The NBA Analyst’ author David Claerbaut discusses a measurement called asset efficiency. Asset efficiency is a relatively easy formula to compute. It simply involves rebounds, blocks, steals, assists and turnovers and is noted as follows:


AE = A + STL + REB + BLK/A + STL + REB + BLK + TO

Claerbaut feels the stat favors "aircraft carriers", a term coined by the late Al McGuire to describe outstanding post players. The author feels teams with a strong inside game fare better due to an increase in rebounds and blocks. Claerbaut felt in his 1998 NBA study there was an .829 correlation between a strong asset efficiency and winning.

The following is a rundown of Big East teams for the 2008-09 campaign. Again, only regular season conference games are included.

Asset Efficiency
TeamAE
Notre Dame.862
UCONN.850
Pitt.850
Marquette.848
West Virginia.844
Louisville.832
Seton Hall.829
Cincinnati.823
South Florida.823
Villanova.820
Syracuse.819
Providence.816
DePaul.802
Georgetown.790
St.John’s.790
Rutgers.783

In Claerbaut’s study four of his bottom five teams in asset efficiency failed to make the NBA playoffs. Looking at the Big East results I feel the stat gives a better read on the teams in the lower echelon as well. The BE bottom four DePaul, Georgetown, St.John’s and Rutgers all struggled. Georgetown? Well the Hoyas weren’t one of the conference’s four worst clubs but they were a 7-11 team that was shown the door in round one of the BET by St.John’s. Notre Dame led the way in AE but was an 8-10 team in conference play. Why the discrepancy? First the schedule didn’t smile on the Irish. After starting out 3-1 ND had a stretch that included At Louisville, at Syracuse, UCONN, Marquette and at Pitt. All ranked and all in a nineteen day stretch. Unfortunately for Mike Brey’s club, all losses. ND’s numbers in AE were solid due to Luke Harangody’s presence which aided the rebounding numbers. ND also took the best care of the ball in conference with not one player having a negative assist/TO ratio.

Claerbaut talks about rebounding numbers but with the Big East I found teams, as South Florida , Seton Hall and West Virginia for example, helped themselves more with low turnover figures.

What about ‘Nova? I thought the Wildcat's AE would be higher. Blocks (64) and rebounds (667) however, were roughly middle of the road. 'Nova, to my surprise, was near the top of the conference in steals (147), but were mid pack with 267 assists. The dagger was turnovers. Jay Wright‘s club recorded 252 TOs. Only five Big East clubs (Georgetown, Providence, Rutgers, St.John’s and Syracuse) had more. Chalk it up to turnovers for keeping a 13-5 Big East Semi and Final Four Villanova club from having a higher AE. Again, Claerbaut notes AE has a high correlation but not the only correlation in defining an elite team.

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Big East Floor Efficiency

by Ray Floriani

SOUTH ORANGE, NJ:  In the late Nineties, David Claerbaut wrote a book "The NBA Analyst" (Taylor Publishing). At the time I hoped it would be an annual publication along the lines of what we have for major league baseball (Baseball Prospectus and others). It was not to be Claerbaut was "one and done" but not without giving some interesting insight. One area he touched upon was floor efficiency which dealt with steals, assists and turnovers. Claerbaut felt this statistic or number, "...reflects the overall floor game, offense and defense".f Claerbaut found the top nine teams in floor efficiency for 1998 had winning records. The Chicago Bulls, the '98 NBA champions, were fourth with a .692 mark. Claerbaut in fact found floor efficiency had an .822 correlation rate to winning.

The formula:

Floor EFF = (steals + assists)/ (steals + assists + turnovers)

We decided to look at the floor efficiency of the Big East. Only the conference regular season games were utilized in computations.

Floor
TeamEfficiencyWon-Lost
1.Marquette.68612-6
2.Notre Dame.6738-10
3.Pitt.66915-3
4.West Virginia.64510-8
5.Louisville.64216-2
5.Seton Hall.6427-11
7.Syracuse.62311-7
8.Villanova.62213-5
9.Cincinnati.6168-10
10.Providence.61510-8
11.UConn.61115-3
12.South Florida.5994-14
13.Georgetown.5897-11
14.DePaul.5870-18
15.St. John's.5456-12
16.Rutgers.5212-16


A few notes and comments:
* Notre Dame. Not a huge surprise but a succinct reminder, floor efficiency is desirable but that alone doesn't guarantee a winning campaign.
* Rutgers. Again not a surprise. It was just a long hard Winter in Piscataway for Fred Hill 7 company.
* What about Villanova? This is a ?Nova site after all. The Wildcats finished mid-pack in the ratings. Jay Wright?s club had 147 steals (tied with Seton Hall for second best in conference behind Louisville). The turnovers (14 per outing) were the area that kept their floor efficiency from being better.
* Marquette led the way in floor efficiency with a perimeter oriented group. But it wasn't simply their style of play. Marquette was not just perimeter oriented in philosophy but very good in execution. They had a strong cast that had nearly five more assists than turnovers (15.1 assists, 10.6 turnovers) per game. Defensively they weren?t too shabby, finishing just a steal behind Villanova for fourth in the Big East.
* Surprise? Seton Hall. Maybe it shouldn?t be that much of an eye opener. Hall was very perimeter oriented and did record seven conference wins. Defensive thefts, as noted tied for second in conference, and a favorable assist/turnover mark (233 to 212) greatly aided Bobby Gonzalez's club.
* Disappointing? UConn. Huskies were fourth from the bottom in conference steals with just 96. That went a long way toward a floor efficiency rating that trailed several teams sub .500 in Big East play. UConn?s situation serves as an example: a favorable floor efficiency is something all coaches certainly covet, but it is not a definitive guarantee to winning. You need an inside game featuring rebounders, interior defenders and shot blockers. UConn had just that and was strong enough to overcome and shortcoming provided by not generating a great deal of steals.