Showing posts with label Coach Gonzalez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Coach Gonzalez. Show all posts

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Seton Hall Post Game: Crunch Time


I like to make them squirm -- Bobby Fisher
There is a point in a chess game when one player realizes he (or she...) is at a fatal disadvantage. And from the other side of the board, you can see in their eyes, as they survey their position, that all options lead to the same place. Checkmate. At the 9:41 mark the Seton Hall Pirates had erased Villanova's lead on a layup by Jeremy Hazell. After jockeying for 80 seconds Villanova's Corey Stokes broke the tie with a 3 pointer from the corner. And over the next 117 seconds Villanova added six more points to their once-and-now held lead. And Seton Hall never took a shot over that time. The Pirates' Jeremy Hazell took a 3FGA at the 6:30 mark, and another at the 6:07 mark. Neither went in and freshman forward Isaiah Armwood grabbed Hazell's second miss, even as he was fouled by Jeff Robinson. The rookie walked the length of the floor and padded the lead with two more points. 73-62. With the lead at double digits, the Pirates staged a four point mini-run, scoring off of a dunk by Robinson and a layup by senior guard, Nunu Harvey. And 13 seconds later, Scottie Reynolds nailed a three and pushed the margin back out to 10. Hazell drove the length of the floor, and when faced by three Wildcat defenders and no place to go he double clutched, released the ball and fell backward to the court. Squirming. Rebounded by Armwood, an outlet pass to Reggie Redding who led a 5-on-4 break (Hazell, regaining his feet, was in a deep conversation with a referee about the no-call) and hit Antonio Pena in the low post for a dunk. 78-66, timeout the Hall. Squirming again as the home crowd exploded.

The Official website has an AP wire story, some post game quotes and the box score. The breakdown by halves...

OpponentSeton Hall 
 1st2ndGame 
Pace36.235.371.6
 Offense Defense
1st2ndGame1st2ndGame
Rating113.2113.2113.293.9104.799.2
eFG%42.954.848.546.848.647.8
TORate13.822.618.216.617.016.8
OR%52.250.051.215.838.127.5
FTA/FGA42.929.036.422.613.917.9
FTM/FGA31.419.425.816.15.610.4
ARate50.053.351.761.562.562.1
Blk%17.116.116.76.58.37.5
Stl%5.714.610.15.48.26.8
PPWS0.971.131.050.990.960.98
2FG%44.457.950.050.046.447.9
3FG%25.033.330.027.337.531.6
FT%73.366.770.871.440.058.3
%2FG58.555.056.858.870.364.8
%3FG14.630.022.226.524.325.4
%FT26.815.021.014.75.49.9

Two Paths, Same Destination
The pace (number of possessions per half) is consistent half-over-half, a little unusual when the point margin is seven going into the half. Normally the team on the short end of that score will come out pushing the pace (increasing the possessions) in an attempt to get more scoring opportunities. The team ahead tends to want to slow it down (without losing their aggression). Posting a 113.2 offensive efficiency (Villanova scored about 1.13 points per possession) in each half is very unusual, but interesting beyond the identical efficiency because it illustrates the variety of ways a team can arrive at that number. In the first half Villanova had a mediocre shooting effort, but compensated by not turning the ball over much (13.8% of their possessions) and getting to the line (about four times for every 10 FGAs). The second half saw a marked improvement in the Wildcats' shooting, but more turnovers (better than one in five possessions ended in a turnover rather than an FGA or FTA), a significantly fewer free throw opportunities. Note the PPWS for each half reflects the success or lack of same, from the floor.

Notes & Observations
1. The offense flowed through Corey Fisher (shot% 27.8%), Antonio Pena (26.9%), Scottie Reynolds (24.2%) and (when he was on the court) Maalik Wayns (38.6%) Fisher, Pena and Reynolds were efficient and prolific, with eFG%s of 54.5%, 58.3% and 54.2% respectively as they each scored in double digits.
2. Corey Stokes had a terrific game, going 4-8 (3-5, 1-3) from the field, scoring that may not have been especially prolific. Though he took only 20% of the shots (well within the team framework) while he was on the court, his offensive contribution was very timely. As the Pirates drew near in the second half Stokes dropped a pair of 3 pointers that put the 'Cats back on top and kept them there through the end of the game. He added five boards to Villanova's huge rebounding advantage (50-31), he had two assists to one turnover.
3. Maalik Wayns, who scored six points on 1-7 (0-1, 1-6) and 4-5 shooting, grabbed a single board, dished a single assist against a single turnover (with one steal) in 11 minutes, had a "freshman" night. Isaiah Armwood, scoring two points on a 2-2 night from the line in the game's last four mintues, to go with 5 (2-3-5) boards, one steal and one block, had a "veteran" night. The 'Cats did not need points, but they did need rebounds and a steady hand at the line when the Pirates drew near. Armwood gave them that.
4. This marks the 11th consecutive game in which the staff played 10 or more players. The starters logged 66.7% of the PT, on the higher end of the scale, suggesting the staff may have felt the game was closer than the score would indicate. Note also no starters were in foul trouble, the circumstances not forcing the staff to situatioal substitutions.

Milestones
With his 15 point outing, senior guard Scottie Reynolds joined eight other Villanovans who scored at least 2,000 points in their careers on the Mainline. As many (led no doubt by Mike Sheridan's well written post game notes) have noted, Scottie scored his 2,000th point at the 11:58 mark of the second half. Scottie joins 459 other D1 players who have scored 2,000 or more points. Duke leads all D1 programs with nine players; Villanova is second with eight. The all-time leading Villanova scorer is Kerry Kittles with 2,243 points over a career that spanned the 1992-96 seasons. I was asked a few times in the preseason about the probabilities Scottie could break Kittle's record, and I usually responded "no", but he would most likely score more than 2,100 points, becoming only the second Villanovan to achieve that honor. What I did not anticipate was Scottie's very fast start on the season (he usually has a tentative OOC, coming on strong as conference play gets underway), and now I suspect that if he does not break the record he will come very close, joining Kittles at the 2,200+ point level before he is done. The number of games the team plays from here on out, combined with Scottie's production/efficiency will decide. Scottie now has 2,008 points and Villanova has nine regular season conference games remaining. Add at least one BET game, and (hopefully) at least one NCAA game, and Scottie would have to average 22 points per game if Villanova played only two games beyond the regular season. A more likely scenario has Villanova playing two BET games (about their average over the past three seasons), and at least three NCAA games. Should Villanova's season extend to (say) 14 games, Scottie could maintain his current pace (about 18 ppg) and score at least 2,243 points.

About Jeremy Hazell...
Possibly Coach Gonzalez's most unusual coaching move put Seton Hall's leading point scorer (460) Jeremy Hazell on the bench at the 4:06 mark of the second half, with the Wildcats holding a 12 point lead (78-66). The post game quotes omit any reference to questions (or responses) about Hazell's benching, odd given the role Hazell plays for the Pirates. New Jersey report Jerry Carino, present at the game, supplied the missing portion of the post game presser in his Hoops Haven blog entry about the game (scroll down to the Gonzo Quotes: section of the entry). As the SHU Coach saw it, Hazell was taking poor percentage shots and not playing with his teammates. The benching, with the game in the balance, was a teaching moment, one that will hopefully pay dividends for the Pirates as the balance of the season plays out. Hazell is the most prolific scorer (460 points, over 200 more points than the next Pirate player) and shooter (359 FGAs, 150 more than the next player) on the squad. With an offensive rating (per Ken Pomeroy) of 120.6, he is the wind in the Pirates' sails (sorry about that...). But he is spectacularly inconsistent. And under some circumstances (he was head-to-head with Villanova's Scottie Reynolds?), prone to terrible judgement. "The Benching" has set off a firestorm among the SHU faithful, usually condemning the coach for the decision. The "The Day After" entry from the Gonzo Ball Blog a representative example. How will this play out? The ball is in Hazell's court...

Ref Notes
Jim Burr, Pat Driscoll and John Gaffney manned the crew. Only 39 total fouls were whistled for both sides, considerably lower than the past 4-6 games. The Pirates got to the line only 12 times, below the standard deviation for visiting teams in Villanova home games. This was Driscoll's first Villanova game this season, Burr (2-1) and Gaffney (3-0) have officiated at least two other games so far.

Monday, January 11, 2010

Seton Hall - Cincinnati Post Game: Closing Out

Live Bloggin'...Impressions
It is interesting to sit on press row and watch the arena fill up. I like to arrive early as a "fan", sit in the stands and watch the rest of the crowd show up as the players go through their pre-game warmups. How team members interact and work together during the "prep time"; how the fans arrive and interact as they take their seats, can sometimes tell me things about the team and their fans. The Rock's lower bowl was filled to capacity for West Virginia (a bit surprising given the timing -- the day after Christmas) and the weather (Northeast dreary, wet and dark, typical of late December in the New York to Boston Corredore). Indeed, the 12/26 Hall fan-base was out in force, though they seemed somewhat tentative. These were not rowdy New Jersey fans out for what they knew would be a good time, but rather more like seekers. Travelers who themselves were in search of answers to questions. How would the taem do? How did they look? Maybe it was the opponent; maybe it was the games running up to this Big East opening of openings. I don't know, but the post Christmas crowd was strangely quiet for just under 10,000 assembled New Jerseyans.

When I arrived for the Cincinnati game I again looked around for crowd signs. Frankly the signs seemed worse for Saturday's game. The crowd was smaller, fewer turned out (confirmed by the official box score), even though this promised to be the best match-up of the first four/five home games. And boy were they quiet, almost mournful. From the pre-game to the first 10 minutes of the 1st half the loudest crowd responses came for the young fellow who sang the National Anthem (he did do an absolutely terrific job btw), and the announcement that the Jets led the Bengals by a 14-7 score (that came during the 1st timeout of the half). The arena became almost morgue-like as the Bearcats pushed their early lead out to 12 about midway through the 1st half.

The official web site has the wire story and the box score. The breakdown by 4 minute sequences...

Scores by...
SequenceOverall
TimeHallNatiHallNatiMargin
1st Period
16:00914914-5
12:00581422-8
8:00942326-3
4:008231283
0:008239309
2nd Period
16:00138523814
12:00810604812
8:0085685315
4:0034715714
0:00121983767

Through the first eight minutes of the 1st period the Hall went down by eight points (22-14), a slow start problem Coach Gonzalez commented on during his post game press conference. The Pirates however, were not victimized by cold shooting -- they were 6-12 (2-4, 4-8) -- they did not appear to be contesting shots (very well) through that time span. Cincinnati was red hot from the field converting seven of nine FGAs (3-5, 4-4). The turnaround started around the 8:00 minute mark, though it was not obvious from the score (check the margin). Pirate shooting was not necessarily more accurate (they went 3-7 from the field), but they started getting to the line -- 3-3 accuracy from the line not only cut into the margin, but also vested the Hall with a bit of confidence. And the Bearcats took their turn dealing with a cold streak, as they shot 2-9 from the field (both made field goals -- 2s by the way -- were assisted). SHU's scortching 16-4 run to close out the last eight minutes of the 1st half cannot be attributed to suddenly better shot accuracy (they went 5-12 & 0-3, 5-9 over the time period), but rather the fact that they got to the line and converted at a 6-6 clip. Other keys...
1. No turnovers over the span -- the Hall held a 8-0 takeaway-giveaway edge over the last eight minutes, noted several times by Coach Cronin during post game interviews. Coach Cronin, shaking his head indicated that beating the Hall's press had been a point of emphasis in Cincinnati's preparations, but had broken down during this period.
2. An ice cold run by the Bearcats. Cincinnati went 2-7 (note five fewer FGAs than SHU, the product of turnovers), 0-3 and 2-4, with no trips to the line during that eight minutes stretch.

Half-time Adjustments
The Pirates won the crucial 1st four minutes, 13-8 with what was their most accurate four minute sequence of the game, going 5-5 from the field (4-4, 1-1) and 2-2 from the line. Cincinnati's own 3-4 efficiency (along with 2-2 from the line) was negated and overcome by strong performances from Garcia, Pope and Hazell (who chipped in 5 points on 2-2 shooting). Nunu was particularly effective with 2 assists and 2-2 from the line. Cincinnati's last rally was triggered (in part) by Cashmire Wright insertion in to the back court. The pass-first point guard set up field goals by Vaughn and Gates with great passes. Wright really pushed the tempo, getting the ball over mid court to get Cincinnati's offense sets going before the Pirates could get their defense set.

Closing Out
Cashmire Wright changed the dynamic for the Bearcats, putting a much faster team on the court (one that better matched the Pirates?). Over the last eight minutes of the game Wright set the offense with five assists (Vaughn chipped in an assist too) as the Bearcats took 15 FGAs, 10 in the last four minutes, hitting 10-15 (3-7, 7-8) and no FTAs (much to the Pirates' credit). If SHU did not take nearly as many shots, five FGAs over the last eight minutes (why would they, up by 15 at the 8:00 mark, their strategy, entirely appropriate, was to work the shot clock & maximize the time for each of their remaining possessions), they did hit their free throws, going 9-10 from the line as Cincinnati committed 6 "change of possession" fouls in the last four minutes. Credit the Pirates for knowing how to close out the game.

Post Game Comments Coach Gonzalez (a Summary)
1. Coach mentioned the storylines coming into the game -- that the Pirates were struggling and were underdogs for the game. This must have bothered him because he specifically pointed out that the Pirates had taken two of their last three against the Bearcats. The comment has been relayed in a number of outlets, but his tone, earnest though not adament, has not been noted anywhere. He has taken notice of the press treatment.
2. He spoke about closing out games and opponents, in particular making free throws in the last few possessions. He noted with pleasure how Herb Pope was making his FTs.
3. The first half turnaround came up, and Coach Gonzalez credited the press and the turnovers it forced. He was especially happy with the guard play, going out of his way to cite all three of his point guards (Harvey, Lawrence and Theodore). He noted how he liked have two pgs on the court at the same time. Someone asked about Lawrence getting the start over Harvey, and the coach indicated that with the consecutive losses he was looking for a way to change the rhythm of the team and get them to refocus. He was very pleased with Harvey's work and suggested he would most likely start the next game.
4. He talked at length about Jordan Theodore, suggesting the sophomore had played an outstanding game. He called him "the pg of the future...Harvey is now, Lawrence is now and next season, Theodore is the future". He returned to Jordan's effort 3 separate times during the course of the press conference.
5. He was impressed (and very happy) with "how smart" Jeremy Hazell played. He was impressed with Hazell's shot selection and game awareness.

Post Game Coach Cronin Comments (a Summary)
The press room had emptied, most of the reporters left to interview the players in the Hall locker room. I stayed behind to finish comments for the live blog and shut down the machine. When I turned around to leave I realized there were two reporters interviewing someone standing to the side of the first row of chairs. At first I thought Coach Gonzalez had returned to the Press Room, but as I focused I recognized Coach Cronin.
1. He spoke in a low tone, his body language almost shy, quite unilke his demeanor on the court. I was able to hear him barking directions to his Bearcats throughout much of the two halves, even when the crowd was noisy.
2. He mentioned Vaughn's early struggles this season, but noted the junior guard's work ethic had really picked up in practice, and was one of the reasons the team had started strongly. Coach is a believer in the effort in practice reflecting/preparing the team for game situations. He felt Vaughn was really turning it around.
3. Coach Cronin credited the Hall press for forcing Cincinnati turnovers and playing themselves back into the game. He indicated that it frustrated his team because they had prepared for it, but still could not "solve" it during the game. This was a point he returned to several times, that despite preparing for it, the Bearcats could not match the speed. He liked Theodore too, was very impressed with the sophomore's play.
4. Thinks to Big East is too difficult. Clearly he respects the conference (and likes the competitiveness of the programs), but might be a bit weary with the pressure that comes with every game.

Friday, January 8, 2010

Big East Game Preview -- Cincinnati at Seton Hall

The Pirates of Seton Hall will host the Bearcats of Cincinnati at the Rock in Newark, NJ tomorrow night. With 16% of the conference schedule in the books is it too early to label a game "Must Win"? The Pirates are reeling from a four game losing streak, three coming complements of their Big East schedule. West Virginia, Syracuse and a mid winter road trip to Storrs, Connecticut...followed by a visit from (possibly) the most physical front court in the conference & Born Ready...who did Coach Gonzalez tick off? The Seton Hall/Cincinnati series goes back to 1955 and is knotted at 5. The Hall holds a 3-1 edge in Big East play.

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
The Hall & 'Nati shared an opponent this year -- Connecticut:
Hall'Nati
OpponentW/LDiff.W/LDiff.
UConnL (A)-8W (H)+2

Home court might account for a few points (Pomeroy seems to go with around 4 to the home team), but this looks very close. For Cincinnati, good wins include the aforementioned Connecticut game (BE, 11-3, 2-1, #6 RPI), Vanderbilt (SEC, 10-3, #47 RPI) and Maryland (ACC, 8-4, #94 RPI). Cincinnati is saddled with four losses, none are counted as bad though. Seton Hall beat Cornell (Ivy, 11-3, #24 RPI) in Cornell. The Pirates have five losses, none counted as bad.

Lineups, Rotations
Coach Cronin will most likely start Deonta Vaughn (senior pg), Larry Davis (junior off guard), Lance Stephenson (freshman, wing/sf), Ibrahima Thomas (junior transfer, pf) and...the coach has conducted a mini-tryout the past four or so games for the #5. So far Yancy Gates (sophomore), Anthony McClain (junior) and Steven Toyloy (senior) have had one start apiece in Cincinnati's three Big East conference games. Who starts against the Pirates? Gates had a mediocre 10 minutes versus CS Bakersfield, after posting a double-double in the Pittsburgh game. Toyloy has been a very reliable (if somewhat pedestrian) in his 15 games (and 7 starts) this season. He averages 4.1 points and 4.3 rebounds. When Coach Cronin went 'tweener against Cal State Bakersfield, he started Rashad Bishop (junior, #3) and brought Davis in off the bench. In all, eight players -- five mentioned above Vaughn, Stephenson, Gates, Toyloy and Bishop, plus Cashmire Wright (red shirt freshman pg), Dion Dixon (sophomore #2) and Darnell Wilks (junior forward) -- have appeared in all 15 of Cincinnati's games this season. Thomas has appeared in every game for which he was eligible, and Larry Davis (a sometime starter) has appeared in 14 of 15 games, giving Coach Cronin a deep bench and a rotation of (at least) ten players. That does not include situational substitutes like reserve center Anthony McLean who, like Davis, started at least one game this season.

Coach Gonzalez will (according to game notes) start Keon Lawrence (junior transfer from Missouri) at the #1, Jeremy Hazell (junior) at the #2, Jeff Robinson (junior transfer from Memphis) at the #3, Herb Pope (junior transfer from New Mexico) at the #4 and John Garcia (senior) at the #5. Lawrence started at Connecticut after coming off the bench and Robinson has received minutes in virtually every game since becoming eligible after sitting a year per NCAA transfer rules. Both officially joined the roster before the Hall's 12/19 game with Temple (a 71-65 loss). Also certain to see minutes, Eugene Harvey (senior), a starter at the #1 for virtually his entire career, Jordan Theodore (sophomore combo guard), Jamel Jackson (junior JUCO, #2 guard), Robert "Stix" Mitchell (junior small forward) and Ferrakohn Hall (freshman #3/#4). Each has appeared in every Hall game this season. If Coach Gonzalez needs more than ten players, he can bring in Mel Oliver, a 6-10, 340 pound center and walk-ons Matt Cajuste or Darnell Gatling, a 5-9 pocket rocket. This is the deepest (and most talented) squad Coach Gonzalez has assembled during his 4 years at the Hall.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Cincinnati lacked a consistent scoring threat last season. Deonta Vaughn is very good, but no one else was consistent enough to draw serious attention. With the game on the line everyone knew who would get the ball and take the last shot. That Cincinnati did not have a true point guard (Cashmire Wright was injured before the season and applied for a red shirt) only complicated matters for Coach Cronin (though it simplified matters for the Bearcats' opponents, Vaughn was not going to run around a screen for a catch-and-shoot...he was the one with the ball). Cincinnati's eFG% has improved slightly over last season, Stephenson brings prolific scoring even as he draws defensive attention.

When the Bearcats have the ball...FTA
eFG%RnkTO%RnkOR%RnkFGARnk
'Nati O49.115920.012338.04229.2317
Hall D44.75120.220033.217932.180

Vaughn however, still saddled with ball handling responsibilities, has a modest slump with his 3 point shooting. Vaughn is not a point guard, and has struggled with turnovers throughout his career. Concerns about Vaughn and Stephenson being able to share the ball appear to this point, to be unfounded as both are ranked in Pomeroy's top 500 for assist rates (maybe they pass to each other...). Offensive rebounding is crucial to Cincinnati; if the Bearcats miss the shot, chances are very good they will get a 2nd chance. For an offense that is not converting at a 50% or better rate, 2nd chance opportunities are important. While Cincinnati is "fairly average" at taking care of the ball, Seton Hall, with ball hawks like Paul Gause having moved on, is not particularly aggressive with take-aways.

The "Four Factors" look at Seton Hall's offense versus Cincinnati's defense:

When the Pirates have the ball...FTA
eFG%RnkTO%RnkOR%RnkFGARnk
Hall O49.813414.8238.33636.6175
'Nati D43.12019.623028.33134.5126

Note the contrasts -- The Hall shoots pretty well, but Cincinnati defends very well. The game may turn on whether the Bearcats can shut down Seton Hall's shooters (Jeremy Hazell and Herb Pope). There will be a war under the Hall's basket. The Pirates are a good offensive rebounding team (which makes their shooting even more effective), but the Bearcats are equally well-regarded as a defensive rebounding team.

Want to Beat the Bearcats? Then...
1. Get a hand in their face. When Cincinnati shoots worse than 45% (eFG%) they are 3-3. When they shoot better than 45% (eFG%) they are 8-1. When the Pirates allow their opponents a conversion rate better than 45% (eFG%) they are 3-5.
2. No second chances -- if the Bearcats miss, get the caroom. Cincinnati is ranked #6 in conference for offensive rebounding rates (38.3% overall). The Bearcats are 3-3 when opponents limit them to <39.0% of their misses. This is not a point of emphasis for the Pirates, as they are ranked #10 for defensive rebounding rates (32.5%), though only one opponent (Syracuse) has rebounded better than 39% against them (one of the Hall losses).
3. Keep them off the line. The Bearcats get to the line about 3 times for every 10 FGAs. When their FTA/FGA is < 30.0, they are 4-4 (& 7-0 when they get there =>30). This is another problem area for the Pirates, as they, on average, put their opponent on the line about once for every three FGAs (the stat maybe inflated by change-of-possession fouls).

Want to Beat the Hall? Then...
1. Make them miss. The Pirates record when held to Cincinnati's defensive eFG% or less is 1-4, when they shoot to their average or better, their record is 7-1. Their offense will most likely go through Jeremy Hazell, the Pirates' junior wing. Hazell gets about 28% of the Hall's possessions when he is on the court, and will take 34.6% of the shots when he is on the floor. For those who think Hazell is a ball hog, consider that he scores about 1.19 points per possession, better than the team's 1.11 conversion rate, an extremely unusual situation, particularly for a high-possession player. Herb Pope will be the second option, as the transfer will take about 25% of the possessions and 21% of the shots when he is on the floor. If Pope and Hazell are in together, the chances are excellent one of the two will have the ball in his hands (and will take a shot).
2. No 2nd chances. When the Hall is held to their offensive rebounding rate (or less), they are 2-4. When they exceed their average they are 7-1. Given that Cincinnati is very good at limiting 2nd chance opportunities, this will be the battle to watch.

Finally...
...This game will pit strengths against strengths - shooting versus shot defense, offensive rebounding versus defensive rebounding. Who calls this game could be very important. A "Let 'em play" crew would probably favor the Bearcats (those rebounding wars...Herb Pope is a terrible free throw shooter 38.2% conversion rate...that's not a typo, he hits less than ½ of his FTAs). Ken Pomeroy gives the Pirates a slight (3 point) nod -- that's less than the homecourt advantage.

I will be blogging live from the game at the Rock for the Rush the Court Blog. Stop over (I will launch a few minutes before the 6:00 tip off) and join the chat.

Other Sources
Game Notes from Cincinnati.