Sunday, June 5, 2011

Villanova's Returning Players Using Value Add (and Sub)

The Value Add System
Cracked Sidewalks poster bamamarquettefan1 introduced his Offensive Impact stat back on May 1 with a list of the 100 best offensive players in the Big East as a preparation for a more comprehensive offensive stat (Value Add) which he explained in his May 10 post over at Cracked Sidewalks. Offensive Value Add and Defensive Value Sub (explained in his May 17 post also at Cracked Sidewalks) is the latest in a long time movement that uses a single (all encompassing) expression to develop "a number" which describes every player's value to his team, and by inference, a metric that can be used to compare players of different teams. Unlike John Hollinger's PER system, this one is not a straight-line formula. Like the Plus/Minus system, Value Add (Value Sub) defines an individual's value relative to the team on which he plays. Rather than track time on the court to produce an estimate of the points produced and allowed, Value Add (Value Sub) uses possession-based stats developed by Ken Pomeroy and after calculating the offensive impact the player had, calculates that impact versus a hypothetical replacement player. After building the model for an offensive value, bamamarquettefan1 then introcuded an expression to determine the defensive value of each Division 1 player. Like Oliver and others however, bamamarquettefan1 is, after accounting for individual "defensive" stats (blocked shots, steals, defensive rebounds...) is reduced to allocating the balance of the defensive credit (stops/missed field goals, etc.) according to time played (Min% per Ken Pomeroy).

Villanova's Returning Players
After an email exchange, bamamarquettefan1 was gracious enough to share his spreadsheet with me, and I am very happy to credit Cracked Sidewalks and bamamarquettefan1 for the material. Villanova's six returning players...

ORtgDRtgOff AddDef SubTotalRank
Mouphtaou Yarou107.097.21.93%-0.96%2.89%222
Maalik Wayns103.899.12.67%0.00%2.67%252
Dominic Cheek100.698.00.75%-0.40%1.15%654
Maurice Sutton97.696.70.19%-0.46%0.65%944
James Bell114.398.60.54%-0.03%0.57%1009
Isaiah Armwood95.498.10.16%-0.29%0.46%1091

Observations (about Villanova's returning roster)
1. Identifying Mouphtaou Yarou and Maalik Waynes as the two best returning players was not surprising, but the order is...a little. I think most fans would agree with the order -- as a longer term projection (but not last season). If accurate, then thoughts of a post junior season exit for Yarou might be in order.
2. Given that James Bell was injured for the first five games of the season and was used sparingly for the next four (and irregularly after that), his ranking has to encourage optimism for his sophomore season.
3. Is Dom Cheek the victim of relative expectations? The rising junior was certainly not the only sophomore who disappointed last season, but his struggles as the team faded in February seemed more obvious than the other sophomores. I would love to see him have a breakout season as a junior.
4. Clearly for both Maurice Sutton and Isaiah Armwood, the contribution is on defense, not offense. The statistics confirm what the eyes have told us.

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