Sunday, March 15, 2009

Offensive Ratings -- the Back Court

I wanted to post something about the offensive ratings of the players before the season wore on much longer. The end of the Big East regular season seemed like a good time to stop and take a look. I mapped the Offensive Ratings for each player in the back court (as opposed to the wings...) weekly, and decided to graph those weekly readings from the Big East regular season (roughly 1/05/09 through 3/08/09) to provide a visual aid on how the season progressed (or did not progress) for Nova's back court contingent. To keep the chart from becoming too cluttered, I mapped Reggie Redding, Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher together. These three tend to handle the ball and run the offense when they are in (something I have noticed Redding seems to do more as the season wore on). The results are interesting...



The Wildcats took off on a 10-2 run beginning in late January. Looking at the chart it is easy to note the Wildcat's progress parallels the progress made by both Reggie Redding and Corey Fisher. Fisher in particular made a very dramatic jump during the early-to-mid February period before falling back a bit. Redding's progress may not be as dramatic, but is nevertheless encouraging because Redding has had problems getting to and maintaining an ORtg above 100 ever since his freshman season. Redding's year-over-year progress is very encouraging. Reynolds made a nice jump in early January, as reflected in several early Big East games (his 40 point performance against Seton Hall comes to mind quickly), and began to draw a good deal of defensive attention. His numbers have not climbed dramatically, but that is not cause for concern as Scottie typically draws a good deal of defensive pressure given his playing time (79.0%), possessions he typically draws (about 24.8%) and shooting responsibilities (about 24.4%). Going forward into next year, all three guards are expected back. Very good news for the team.

Thanks go out to Ken Pomeroy for the use of the data from his Villanova Scout Page.

2 comments:

Villanova Viewpoint Publisher said...

Hello, greyCat-

My two cents on this post...

I think that Redding is the unsung hero of the team, particularly in the second half of the season. Because he doesn't score much, he doesn't get as much credit as he deserves. But defense only indirectly shows up in the box score, and he also has a knack for making things happen when he's in the game. Plus, if we look at the number of assists he's had in certain games down the stretch, it's very impressive...

I think that the chart looks great, as it illustrates well the staggering progress by Fisher, as well as the considerable progress made by Redding.

I would speculate that the slight dip by Reynolds was caused by those subpar games down the stretch. I would also agree with you that the level of attention which Reynolds draws bears a considerable amount of credit for some of those tough shooting performances...

Thoughts?

greyCat said...

Scottie's dip is hardly surprising, it happens just about every season. In the OOC part of the schedule he tends to dominate as the 'Cats face a fair amount of lesser talent. Big East play generally brings more defensive attention and better (sometimes more...) defenders. Differences this season -- Scottie's offensive rating is (most likely due to more consistent offensive play around him and Cunningham in the paint) and the end of the season uptick. Very positive going into the NCAAs (though he did struggle in NYC).