Friday, August 31, 2007

Inside/Outside According to Pelton

Kevin Pelton originally developed the Inside stat to determine the tendency of any NBA player to play on the wing as opposed to the paint. As Pelton himself described the stat "... It's really amazingly simple - (FTA-3PA)/MIN...(but) not exact...". Applying Pelton's metric to Big East players who logged 32% or more time at their respective positions produced this Top 10 List of Inside players:

Kentrell GransberryUSF65654.2239014922.71
Paul HarrisCuse75854.32172016619.26
Luke HarangodyNDU65851.4290111417.17
Adrian HillRU72661.8169112016.39
Aaron GrayPitt101667.7361016616.34
Roy HibbertGtown97565.7277015315.69
Jeff AdrienUConn102782.5314116215.68
Lamont HamiltonSt. John's88671.22813717515.58
Hasheem ThabeetUConn76261.2121011515.09
Rob KurzNDU86867.82264917914.98

This list contains those old familiar faces -- and in roughly the order I would have expected. But there are, for me anyway, three surprises -- Rob Kurz, Adrien Hill and Paul Harris. These three show up on Pomeroy's list (see my previous inside/outside post, "Inside/Outside According to Pomeroy") too:

  • If Notre Dame produced one name for this list, Rob Kurz is not the one I expected. And for Notre Dame, a program which under Mike Brey's stewardship has not developed a reputation for strong inside play, to produce 2 players for the Inside list is very surprising.
  • Paul Harris not only shows up twice, but he appears prominently on both lists. The multiple listing (Pelton & Pomeroy) re-enforces the preconception that Harris' strongest play is inside the paint.
  • Like Kurz and Harris, Rutger's senior center Adrien Hill appeared on both lists. Of the three Hill was the least publicized. In fact Hill may have been the least publicized big man on either list.

Pelton's top 10 Outside List also contains a few surprises:

Andy RautinsCuse74153.122618824-22.13
Avery PattersonSt. John's90472.630822042-19.69
Frank YoungWVU113095.041526377-16.46
Jamar NutterThe Hall91177.235221871-16.14
Brian McKenziePC42133.71047812-15.68
Colin FallsNDU102780.2314250102-14.41
Melvin BuckleyUSF107088.439122883-13.55
Deonta VaughnCin98981.740721689-12.84
Mike NardiNova96175.130518776-11.55
Dan FitzgeraldMU71975.317212242-11.13

This list contains 6 common names with Pomeroy's top 10 Outside players. The four newcomers, Melvin Buckley (USF), Deonta Vaughn (Cincinnati), Mike Nardi (Nova) and Dan Fitzgerald (Marquette), all contributed more than occasionally to their respective teams last season. Coming from teams that struggled throughout the year, Buckley and Vaughn may have be lesser known players outside their respective fan bases. A few of the surprises (at least to me):

  • Rautins & Patterson appeared in the top 3 of both lists, with Rautins again taking top honors. Neither will play this season. Rautins, who tore an ACL playing for Team Canada, will redshirt as he rehabs post surgery, while Patterson transferred to a DII school in May. I have to think Syracuse and St. John's will miss these guys...
  • Brian McKenzie appears on both Pelton's and Pomeroy's top 10 Outside List. The Friars are touring Italy now and again McKenzie is taking a relatively high proportion of his shots as 3s (8/18 as of Aug. 30).
  • The Hall's Jamar Nutter appeared on both lists as well. The slam on Nutter over the years has been consistency. He is in his fifth year of eligibility and putting together a good run would really help the Hall.
  • Notre Dame contributed two names to Pelton's Inside list but only one name (not surprising that it is Colin Falls) to his Outside List. Brey has cast Notre Dame as a perimeter oriented team, so the sudden prolific inside players is extremely surprising.

Dante was "Mr. Inside" for the Wildcats. The balance of the ranking remained the same, which means Dwayne Anderson remains "Mr. Outside".

Dante Cunningham87968.7189111312.74
Bilal Benn24619.22822910.98
Casiem Drummond13010.2250129.23
Will Sheridan82964.81295626.88
Curtis Sumpter95574.64001411662.62
Scottie Reynolds96275.23531691750.62
Reggie Redding42933.5823825-3.03
Shane Clark77660.618710052-6.19
Mike Nardi96175.130518776-11.55
Dwayne Anderson18914.8584518-14.29

Given what I know of Villanova's roster and play in 2006-07, the ranking order and values relative to each player "feel" pretty accurate.


Pete @ said...

Hey greyCat,

I was just clicking through some of your links and noticed the Wikipedia article you link to does not exist.

-- Pete

greyCat said...

Hi Pete,

I think it's fixed now. Apparently the author resubmitted the article with a slightly different link. I have tried the new link and it appears to work.