Creighton -- Some Questions Answered

A partial answer to question #2 is...
The Blue Jays have released their out of conference schedule, and it appears they Coach Greg McDermott has upgraded the slate for the 2016-17 season, with a few caveats. Borrowing a leaf from Anonymous Eagles' playbook, I have averaged Pomeroy's 2016 rankings for the slate announced late last week, along with Pomeroy's rankings for the out of conference slate they played last season. I also added the RPI rankings (averaged again, not using the algorithm for the SOS) as a point of comparison. As of last March, the NCAA's Selection Committee (for better or worse...) continues to use the RPI as a point of reference. On to the details (again borrowing Anonymous Eagles' format (Kenpom rank is followed by RPI).

2015-16 Season:
Low: Oklahoma (7, 6)
High: Texas-San Antonio (339, 348 out of 351)
Average of Creighton's 13 opponents (Pomeroy): 187.2
Standard Deviation of Rank (Pomeroy): 105.6
Median Opponent Ranking (Pomeroy): 180

My question dealt at length with problems in the 2015-16 schedule, so I am not going rehash the argument here.

2016-17 Season:
Low: Wisconsin (33, 41)
High: Longwood (290, 324 our of 351)
Average of Creighton's 9 known opponents (Pomeroy): 167.3
Standard Deviation of Rank (Pomeroy): 85.9
Median Opponent Ranking (Pomeroy): 172

The numbers reflect last season's performance, and are -- at best -- only partially predictive of performance this season. They do suggest that McDermott has considered a more balanced schedule with fewer #200 and higher ranked programs, along with fewer top #50 programs. The second and third games from the Paradise Jam will be known only when the tournament is played, but looking at a second round match-up with North Carolina State (the better of the NCSU/Montana match-up) is not a stretch. The numbers improve at the margins in that scenario; the average and median drop to 158.8 and 131 respectively, while the standard deviation rises to 86.2 A quick look at the entire bracket suggests that Creighton would be the favorite in their side of the bracket, with (most likely) Mississippi (or less likely) Saint Joseph's/Oral Roberts the other bracket's contribution to the Championship game.

Scheduling Division 2 Truman State as the last out of conference opponent is interesting. With no obvious historical or personal connection to Truman State, there are pros and cons to weigh with this decision. The game is scheduled early in the Big East season and will be a respite to the conference grind. As a Division 2 opponent, the Jays' SOS will not suffer for scheduling the game. The school will include the stats in the records for the players and the history, while the NCAA will treat the stats and result as an exhibition game. While the Selection Committee will disregard the result when they analyze for the post season, it would be hard to unring the bell. This most likely is a guarantee game, a practice discouraged by the NCAA.

The schedule with Pomeroy and RPI

Date	Opponent	H/A/N	Conf.	2015-16
					K Pom	RPI
11-Nov	UMKC	H	WAC		264	285
15-Nov	Wisconsin	H	B1G		33	41
18-Nov	Washington St.	N	Pac12		204	207
19-Nov	TBD	N
21-Nov	TBD	N
26-Nov	Loyola (MD)	H	Pat		286	257
29-Nov	Buffalo	H	MAC		131	91
3-Dec	Akron	H	MAC		91	36
7-Dec	Nebraska	A	B1G		98	162
10-Dec	Longwood	H	BSou		290	324
17-Dec	Oral Roberts	H	Summ		172	149
20-Dec	Arizona St	A	Pac12		104	98
14-Jan	Truman St.	H	D2		NR	NR

More information for question #3 (and question #1)...
Kobe Paras, a consensus Top 150 recruit who reopened his recruitment when denied admission at UCLA in late June signed with Creighton earlier this week and will be available in the fall. At 6'5" and 190 pounds the Californian, variously described as an off guard and small forward, will join David Mintz as the second true freshman in the Blue Jays' four member incoming class. Expected to carve out a role as a wing in McDermott's system, Paras is known for his speed in the open court, quickness and his ability to score in bunches. At 190 he may have to put on some muscle to add an inside dimension to his game.

Ten Teams, One Conference, Three Questions Each, Part 2

The NBA draft is done, the transfers have made their moves and the teams traveling abroad have made their travel plans. As summer moves on, a few questions come to mind about each Big East program going into the 2016-17 season...

DePaul
The Blue Demons lost five seniors and junior Tommy Hamilton (to transfer). Losing Hamilton, Myke Henry and Aaron Simpson hurt most, as coach Dave Leitao returns 54% of the possessions and minutes played, along with 50% of the points scored -- but only 39% of the rebounding -- from last season's 9-22 squad.

1. Leitao built a winning program at DePaul in his first stint in Lincoln Park (2002-03 through 2004-05) -- can he do it again? In the second year of his second stint, Leitao left DePaul as the Blue Demons concluded their run in CUSA, but before they moved into the Big East. The Big East of 2016 may not be the Big East of 2003 (some would argue that point...), it is a far more competitive conference than CUSA. Leitao has a lot of work ahead. A talent upgrade is mandatory. In response to the Blue Demons large turnover of scholarships (five seniors and Hamilton) Leitao will add up to eight new faces to the returning nucleus of rising sophomore Eli Cain (who showed real progress as he closed out his freshman campaign) and rising seniors Billy Garrett Jr. and Darrick Wood. Embracing a Division 1 wide trend, Leitao's new contingent will include both four incoming freshmen, a JUCO and three transfers. Among the freshmen Devin Gage and Brandon Cyrus, should, along with fifth year transfer Chris Harrison-Docks (Western Kentucky), provide a solid backcourt rotation headlined by returners Cain and Garrett. Levi Cook and Al Eichelberger -- along with JUCO wing Tre'Darius McCallum (Indian Hills CC) -- have large roles to fill with the departure of Henry and Hamilton. McCallum might be the answer to Henry's departure, especially if he can maintain his 40% three point conversion rate. Two additional transfers, Max Strus (a Division 2 All-American from Lewis University) and Austin Grandstaff (Ohio State and Oklahoma) will sit this season per NCAA transfer rules and be eligible to play (Strus for two seasons, Grandstaff for three) in 2017-18.

2. How can DePaul avoid the conference cellar this season? While Leitao gave back three conference wins (3-15) compared to Oliver Purnell's 2014-15 squad (6-12), DePaul managed to avoid the conference cellar for a second consecutive season thanks to Chris Mullin's 1-17 inaugural season at St. John's. The Red Storm will make progress in 2017, so DePaul must solve its tendency to slump in February and March to avoid the bottom rung for a third consecutive season. The Blue Demons' conference record from 2011-2016 is 17-73 (0.189) -- bad, but good compared to their February/March record during that same period -- 6-42 (0.125). Whether it is the grind of conference play, lack of conditioning, a too short rotation or eroding morale, the squad must develop the toughness to avoid this apparently inevitable late season malaise.

3. Will Billy Garrett finish his career with more than 1500 points scored? Garrett is ranked 34th among DePaul's highest scorers. A healthy season with even average offensive production would virtually guarantee that he becomes the eleventh player to join DePaul's 1500 point club. Garrett needs another 380 points and 75 assists to join Brandon Young as the second player to score more than 1,200 points, convert more than 100 three point field goals and dish 400 assists over the course of his career.


Georgetown
Bradley Hayes was granted another season of eligibility, leaving D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera as the Hoyas only significant loss this off season. Coach John Thompson III brings in three more players, guard Rodney Pryor, a fifth year senior from Robert Morris, Jonathan Mulmore, a JUCO point guard from Allegheny College in Maryland and freshman off guard Jagan Mosely, a St. Anthony's (NJ) graduate. The emphasis on guards is no mistake as the Hoyas are so stacked at the forward and low post positions that players will struggle to see the floor.

1. Will the Hoyas bounce back this season? A team loaded with four and five star athletes could not seem to find second gear in 2015-16. Stumbling out of the gate at 0-2, the Hoyas staggered to a 7-5 record through the first two months. A mid season 6-2 rally petered out with a 2-10 closing run, which broke an eleven season string of post season appearances (two NITs, nine NCAAs). Thompson will work with 82% of the minutes, 77% of the possessions and 78% of the points scored from last season's 15-18 squad which suggests that Thompson will start out with an 84% "ceiling" on his continuity of minutes (see Pomeroy here) -- a strong hint that Georgetown will improve. Other hints of progress include youth -- as measured by both division 1 (1.38 years per Ken Pomeroy, 279th) and the conference (7th), they will mature and luck -- the Hoyas played 13 close (margins of 6 points or 2 possession) games last season, going 3-10. They played eight blowout (15 or more points) going 6-2.

2. What two areas most need improvement? Thompson must address defensive fouls and turnovers (too many on offense and not enough on defense). Historically the Hoya combined shot efficiency with offensive rebounding to mask a tendency to lose possessions before taking a field goal attempt. Field goal conversion rates continue to be efficient -- though not as efficient as the six squads Thompson coached from 2006-2011, but offensive rebounding has cratered to 28.3%m=, the lowest ever under Thompson. Maturity alone with improve the fouling rate at the margins. Greater discipline and better defensive preparation will definitely yield better results as well.

3. Which will have a bigger impact on recruiting, the new practice facility or a new approach to offense? Both are long overdue. The John R. Thompson Jr. Intercollegiate Athletic Center, due for completion sometime in 2016, will provide separate men's and women's practice facility as part of a 144,000 square foot facility that will serve all 29 of the Hoyas' athletic teams. It should serve as proof of administrative commitment to athletics for the 29 coaching staffs that will use the facility. Thompson's most successful teams ran a high-post version of the Princeton Offense with the offense directed by the passing center (Roy Hibbert, Greg Monroe) or through a point forward (Jeff Green, Otto Porter). Guards advanced the ball and with their wings (Jon Wallace, Chris Wright, Austin Freeman, Jason Clark, Jabril Trawick), connected on enough threes to keep the defense from collapsing on the low post. Thompson will no doubt incorporate "Read and React" elements, pick and roll along with isolation plays for his guards, into his pass-oriented offense. No one in this back court, LJ Peak excepted, has consistently hit three point attempts. The roster is stacked at virtually every position, expect very competitive practices come October and an updated look come November. Nothing helps recruiting more than a winning program.

Ten Teams and the Conference, Three Questions Each, Part 1

After the NBA deadline and initial flurry of fifth year transfers, the rosters have settled down. With news of the out of conference schedules trickling out, it is time to look at some of the questions facing each Big East program going into the 2016-17 season...

Butler
The Bulldogs graduated Kellen Dunham, Roosevelt Jones and Austin Etherington, three solid contributors during coach Chris Holtmann's two years. Also departed, sophomore Jackson Davis a rotation forward and Jordan Gaithers, a graduate transfer who filled out the Bulldog backcourt rotation last season.

1. Butler's Backcourt -- Who's Got Next? The Bulldogs' largest productivity losses came in their backcourt as Dunham, a 43% shooter from beyond the arc last season (38.5% career) and Jones, a 230 pound linebacker disguised as an off guard/wing moved on. Holtmann returns 53% of the minutes, 51% of the scoring and 50% of the possessions from last season, but Dunham and Jones account for most of those missing minutes and points. Holtmann has two transfers, red shirt senior Kethan Savage (George Washington) and graduate transfer Avery Woodson (Memphis), to team up with likely starting point guard, senior Tyler Lewis. Savage, a slasher who posted a 48% completion rate inside the arc in three seasons at George Washington, compliments Woodson who matched Dunham's long range productivity last season playing for Josh Pastner. This combination should help the Bulldogs post a third consecutive winning conference record and upper division finish. Those three should give freshman Kamar Baldwin time to get up to speed.

2. Can Holtmann recruit at the Big East level? In his two years the coach logged hits and misses on the trail. He can identify and attract good transfers, while sophomores Tyler Wideman (a #4/#5) and (#3/#4) Kelan Martin, significant contributors at both ends of the court this past season, confirm that he can scout and recruit high school talent. This seasons three entering freshmen, #2/#3 Henry Baddley, a 6'6", 190 pound wing from St. Vincent-St. Mary's High School in Akron, Ohio, 6'11" 240 pound #5 Joey Brunk from Indianapolis' Southport High School and Kamar Baldwin, a 6'2" 175 pound combo-guard out of Winder, Georgia (Apalachee High School) do appear to be more projects than impact players. Red shirt freshman Sean McDermott, a 6'6" 'tweener has had the benefit of practicing with the team last season. Among the transfers, Austin Etherington (Indiana) did not have the anticipated impact, but fifth year senior Jordan Gaithers (St. Bonaventure) and two year transfer Tyler Lewis (North Carolina State) were consistent, solid backcourt contributors last season. Holtmann will look to two more transfers, Savage and Woodson to play expanded roles on this season's team. Another GWU transfer, Paul Jorgensen, will be available for two seasons starting in 2017-18.

3. Can Butler get out of the NCAA's first weekend? The question that haunted Villanova for the past three seasons will no doubt dog coach Holtmann's squad as they face the press on Media Day next October. Their records for 2014-2016 need no apology as they tallied wins over North Carolina, Purdue, Temple, Cincinnati, Texas, Texas Tech and Tennessee over that span. While the draw and match-ups will play a big role in how they do next March, do not minimize the experience gained by the staff and the returning members of the squad.


Creighton
Geoffrey Groselle and James Milliken have exhausted their eligibility, but Maurice Watson, fresh off of an outstanding junior season, tested the NBA waters before returning for his senior season. Meanwhile guards Marcus Foster, a 6'2" transfer from Kansas State and 6'4" freshman Davion Mintz, are ready to compete for minutes. Coach Greg McDermott will have some interesting decisions to make about his backcourt.

1. How good is Creighton's back court? Potentially the best backcourt in the Big East according to many who cover the conference regularly. Foster (who, according to Jon Rothstein, reduced his body fat from 14% to 8% during his NCAA required sitting period) will pair with senior Maurice Watson Jr. to provide a 1-2 scoring and passing combination that should stretch opposing defenses next season. McDermott will have the option to run a long or a quick rotation as the Bluejays, returning 76% of the minutes and possessions and 74% of the scoring from last season's 20-15 squad, are deep at the wing and low post. The key will be the chemistry that Watson and Foster can develop and maintain, as they have similar skills. Their versatility will either enhance scoring opportunities for their teammates -- a healthy mix of seniors and sophomores -- or freeze them to setting picks and rebounding. The line however fine, should be easily recognized by McDermott, a Division 2 and Division 1 head coach for 22 years with stops at Northern Iowa, Iowa State before Creighton. If McDermott can fine tune the Bluejays they should shake up the Xavier/Villanova hegemony at the top of the conference.

2. Will McDermott upgrade the Bluejays' out of conference schedule? A 9-9 conference record that featured wins over Georgetown, Seton Hall, Butler, Xavier and Marquette (road) coupled with five losses by five or fewer points drew favorable comments from fans. The Bluejays, doomed by a so-so 9-4 out of conference record versus a #305 (RPI) ranked slate of opponents, were never in a serious NCAA bracket discussion. Their loss to #238 RPI ranked Loyola of Chicago rendered their pospects DOA by New Year's Eve. McDermott cannot control Creighton's draw in early season invitational tournaments. Stinkers like Rutgers (RPI #294) are inevitable, but he can control CenturyLink Center visitors and home-away contracts, five of whom last season were with teams ranked below #250. McDermott has an experienced squad that can post 20+ wins against a much stronger slate this season. The Bluejays are set to face in state opponent Nebraska, will kick off the Paradise Jam with Washington State (with either North Carolina State or Montana their second opponent) and have a return date with Arizona State (away). With five of 14 opponents set, McDermott can assemble a solid slate with (rumored) Akron (#36 RPI last season) and others in the #50 to #130 range. Rumors that Longwood (#324 last season) and Tennessee-Martin (#215 last season) are on tap -- let's hope McDermott can control his sweet tooth.

3. Has Creighton's recuiting pipeline made the trasition to the Big East? Yes, McDermott's annual additions usually include a healthy mix of freshmen and transfers/JUCOs. He appears to have many of his wing and front court needs for the next two years already in works. A pair of four star wings, Ty-Shon Alexander and Mitchell Ballock, are set to enter in 2017. This reduces McDermott's 2017-18 need list to #4s and #5s, the two areas where the heaviest attrition will take place. With Watson's departure timetable known, McDermott already has Syracusse transfer Kaleb Joseph waiting in the wings. Joseph will school Mintz in practice as he works out with the team during his NCAA-mandated red shirt season. Marcus Foster's plans could be the wild card (what else is new?). If he jumps after a single season in Omaha and disrupts McDermott's anticipated point guard line of succession (Watson-Foster-Joseph-Mintz), McDermott will have another spot to cover in the Jay's backcourt rotation.

Coaching Carousal Part 2015-01: The Short Off Season

The Ebb and Flow...
Economic cycles, conference realignment and the expansion/contraction of Division 1 have disrupted the grander cycle of the Carousal, but the annual cycle, the cycle within any particular season/off season, has remained (with some exceptions) intact. Which party (employer or employee) dominates at any point in the cycle is governed by the timing. As the season winds down, Administrators perform their year-end assessment of their programs, and baskeball underperformers begin to search their souls. Administrators dominate until the third weekend of the NCAA Tournament when the accumulation of open positions and interviews brings job offers and the carousal begins to move. Departing coaches trigger more openings. This multiplier effect powers the carousal for 4-6 additional weeks. The spring signing period ushers in the next phase. General disaffection with job performance (or employer support or brighter spotlights) gives way to specific reasons -- health (Skip Prosser, Wake Forest; Rick Majerus, St. Louis), behavior (Mike Rice, Rutgers; Billy Gillispie, Texas Tech) and internal politics (of succession, for example -- Jim Calhoun, Connecticut; Dave Boots, South Dakota) or even a combination (Jimmy Collins, Illinois-Chicago) -- for the change in leadership. When the turnover occurs outside of the peak period of the cycle -- the end of February through the end of the spring signing period -- the more obvious the reason for change. Though not always initiated by administration, the changeover can disrupt the program.

The last two turnovers -- Doug Wojcik (College of Charleston) and Gib Arnold (University of Hawaii) -- both initiated by management and coming along the cusp of the 2014 and 2015 cycle -- are examples of the exigent circumstances. For Wojcik, the problem was player abuse, a growing concern among Division 1 Athletic Directors. Arnold and Assistant Coach Brandyn Akana were relieved of their duties amid rumors of document tampering during the admissions process of a potential transfer. The allegations, self-reported late last season, resulted in a 14 game suspension for Akana. The investigation continued through the summer and concluded a fortnight into the official fall practice period. Wojcik settled on a payment; Akana has yet to respond publicly; Arnold may well sue. Given the timing, the College of Charleston looked locally and hired Clemson Assistant Coach Earl Grant, a Charleston native and journeyman coach at three South Carolina colleges/universities (and Wichita State in Kansas) before coming home to Charleston. Hawaii promoted Assistant Coach Benjy Taylor as interim Head Coach. Taylor, whose job before Hawaii was Head Coach at Chicago State (3 seasons, 39-53) has held staff jobs at eight different Division 1 and Division 3 schools in a career that spans 22 years.

Housekeeping
46 coaching vacancies since fall practice 2013 marked the lowest turnover since 2009. The percentage of Division 1 openings (13.1%) also marks a "bottom" since 2009 (9.3%). The last common trait the current cycle shares with 2009 -- the all-too-brief "offseason". Jim Crews was fired by Army in late September 2009 (the last turnover in the 2009 offseason) while Fordham's Derrick Whittenburg was fired on December 3, 2009 (the first of the 2009-10 cycle), making that coaching carousal "offseason" all of 11 weeks. This one, from August 5 to October 24, was just under 12 weeks.

An Atlantic 10 - Big East Challenge? Already Happening

The Under Reported Conference Challenge
"Something I'd love to see moving forward in the non-conference portion of schedules? A Big East-Atlantic 10 Challenge." I caught that tweet from a hungry -- yet humble -- sports writer several Sundays ago as I monitored my twitter feed while watching Massachusetts take Fordham behind the shed to the tune of 90-52. ESPN, CBS and Fox Sports, through the power of made for television events (power conference challenges, early season invitational tournaments and gimmick-inspired match-ups like the "Aircraft Carrier" and now-defunct "Bracket Buster Weekend" games), have transformed the out conference portion of the season from untelevised David and Goliath games in which an "above the red line" host pummels a "below the red line" visitor (and then settles the penalty clause for breaking the NCAA-mandated home-away contract with a check) into a series of games that capture the excitement of the post season in the weeks before conference play begins.

I wrote about this organic rivalry several years ago, and though conference realignment has changed the details, the general points remain the same...
1. The conferences share a common geographical footprint that stretches from Rhode Island (URI and PC) in the east, south to the Washington DC metro area (Georgetown, George Washington, Richmond and VCU) and west (through the Rust Belt) to the Mississippi River Valley and it's tributaries (St. Louis and Creighton).
2. Many of the teams continue historic rivalries initiated because of their shared geography. While there are exceptions (*cough* Georgetown *cough*), most, as the table below confirms, continue to play their neighbors even though conference commitments take a large portion of their schedules.
3. Many of those schools located in the upper mid-west and south share conference affiliations.
4. Early season invitational tournaments have brokered matches that two neighbors have not, on their own, created. The two conferences had 30 members who played 37 games back in 2010 (and 50+ games, including the post season, in the snapshot I took in 1975) when I wrote about the rivalry last. Conference realignment has reshaped both conferences. Today they have between them 23 teams (10 in the Big East, 13 in the Atlantic 10) that include four entirely new faces (Creighton, Butler, George Mason and Virginia Commonwealth) and 11 teams departed (Charlotte, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, South Florida, Syracuse, Temple and West Virginia), but the table below suggests that number of games played aside, the power relationship remains unchanged.

	But	Cre	DPU	GTU	MU	PC	SHU	SJUNY	Nova	XU	A10
Day
Duq
Fdm								SJUNY			0-1
GMU
GWU		GWU			MU						1-1
LSU						PC			VU		0-2
UMass						UMass					1-0
URI						PC					0-1
Rich
SBU
SJUPA		Cr							VU		0-2
SLU
VCU				GTU							0-1
BE		1-1		1-0	1-0	2-1		1-0	2-0

The number of common games has declined as the membership of each conference has changed, but the trend over the past five years (and the snapshot from 1975 seems to affirm), that the Big East schools tend to win the larger portion of the games; 2011 excepted (of the 21 games played the Big East record was 11-10 or 0.524) the Big East tends to win at least 60% of the games. 2013-14 is an outlier only in the smaller-than-usual sample and the high winning percentage (10 games, 8-2 so far). Of course the post season will yield at least one-to-two additional matchups.

Observations:
1. If the last three invitations are any indication, A-10 Commissioner Bernadette McGlade's realignment strategy will have the conference expand to the south. With the addition of Xavier, Butler and Creighton, the Big East appears open to moving westward should Commissioner Val Ackerman and the membership decide to expand beyond 10.
2. The regions into which each conference expands will decide whether their pool of common games grows or diminishes.
3. When the Hoyas joined the Big East in 1979-80, they allowed three of their most active local rivalries, with American (1938-39), George Washington (1906-07) and Maryland (1907-08) to lapse. George Washington (1981-82) and Maryland (1979-80) were discontinued in the early 1980s, while the American series continued until 1986-87 before taking a 20 year hiatus. Restarting the series with George Washington, relatively competitive at 54-39, would likely raise DC interest in college basketball. Reviving the Maryland rivalry would give the Big East an annual game with the Big Ten.
4. As the rankings and head-to-head records suggest, both conferences would be better served with conference challenge showcases with better matched conferences. Fans may find a Big East-Pac-12 challenge more competitive for both conferences while the Atlantic 10, clearly at the head of that group of conferences consisting of the C-USA, Mountain West, West Coast and Missouri Valley might be better served with a conference challenge with the West Coast Conference, a showcase that could give both conferences exposure on the other coast.

Coaching Carousal Part 2013-02: On the Banks

Trenton New Jersey Makes the World Takes
I remember seeing that slogan on a sign whenever I took the old Pennsylvania Railroad back and forth to college...an out of state school of course. New Jersey may be rated the best place to raise a child in the US, but every September the recently graduated high school class joins a tidal wave of 18-24 year olds who leave the state to pursue their education anywhere but in New Jersey. Successive recessions dating back to the Telecommunications Crash of 1999 and 9-11 have stemmed the tide slightly, but the truth everyone involved in secondary and higher education in the state knows is that the Garden State exports a much higher percentage of their college age students than any other state in the union. And that has been true for at least the last 50 years. The University of Delaware and the state colleges in Virginia have balanced their budgets with the tuition/room and board checks of New Jersey parents; even as New Jersey athletes have been recruited to the rosters of football and basketball powerhouses (and a number of the lesser lights) all across Division I. Persuading those athletes to play for "State U" is the perpetual challenge for Rutgers.

If You Build It...Will They Come?
The Scarlet Knights joined the Big East for football in 1991 and have compiled a 117-151 record over that time. The program under Greg Schiano (11 years, 68-67) turned around a dreadful first decade of BCS football (two coaches, 40-80) to produce seven bowl teams in his last eight seasons in New Brunswick. His successor, Kyle Flood, took a 9-3 team to the Russell Athletic Bowl and lost. The men's football team has consistently earned post season play under Schiano and Flood, not so for the men's basketball team. Though the program earned a Final Four berth under Tom Young (239-116, 0.673) in 1976, the next 37 years and six coaches yielded four bids -- the last in 1991, four years before joining the Big East in all sports.

Rutgers Athletic Directors going back to Fred Gruninger have vacillated between candidates with Rutgers/New Jersey roots (Kevin Bannon, Fred Hill, Craig Littlepage, Bob Wenzel) and those from outside of the Rutgers community and state (Tom Young, Gary Waters, Mike Rice for example). While not uniformly successful (see Mike Rice), the outsiders have produced better records, compiling a combined 362-242 (0.599, four NCAA bids) while the homies combined for a 257-335 (0.434, two NCAA bids) record.

Mike Rice's termination, the seventh consecutive termination going back to Tom Young, put the program back on the market. Lacking a sitting Athletic Director (Tim Pernetti was also fired/resigned as a result of the Rice Scandal), interim AD Carl Kirschner decided to first fill the basketball coaching vacancy before finding a successor to Pernetti. The field appears to have narrowed to another insider/outsider pair, with NBA assistant coach Eddie Jordan, captain of Rutgers' 1976 Final Four squad opposite La Salle University head coach Dr. John Giannini. Jordan, strongly endorsed by NBA Commissioner (and Rutgers graduate) David Stern has connections in the NBA and over eight years of head coaching experience (with three different franchises) at the pro level, he has yet to manage his first collegiate program. Dr. Giannini, a native of Chicago educated at North Central University (Napierville, Illinois), North Texas and the University of Illinois, has 23 years of head coaching experience with stops at Rowan University (Glassboro, New Jersey), Maine and La Salle University. His specialty is building programs. Jordan is the favorite to be named later this week.

ESPN's Brett McMurphy reports that Rutgers has indeed hired Jordan.

Who Put On the Brakes?
My earlier projection of 50-60 now appears too high. While I believed the number of low and mid-major openings would drive the total to the 50+ range, the absence of a "domino effect" among the high-major schools applies a braking effect on the number of openings created to date. The UCLA firing for example brought Steve Alford of New Mexico to the Bruins, but the Lobos promoted assistant coach Craig Neal to the first chair, effectively snuffing the expected chain reaction initiated by Ben Howland's termination and limiting the domino effect to two openings total created by that termination. Firings at power conference schools -- Minnesota, Northwestern, Rutgers, Southern California, Texas Tech and UCLA so far this cycle -- should have the kind of multiplier effect that would create between 6 and 11 additional openings, accounting for between 12 and 17 total vacancies. Even though Rutgers is still open and the chain reaction from Southern California has not concluded, the total number of openings generated from those six original terminations is four, a very small multiplier effect that translates into 10 total vacancies (rather than the 12-17 anticipated). The multiplier effect is so small that only three more assistant coaching vacancies have been created to boot. True, Rutgers may trigger another head coaching opening or two, but if the Scarlet Knights opt for Eddie Jordan, that hire will have no effect on head coaching in Division 1 programs. Even if the Scarlet Knights turn to Dr. Giannini, the multiplier/domino effect overall will be still be smaller than expected. Given the total of vacancies to date is 41 (with 29 hired through April 16), expect no more than about 55 before the first Fall Practice.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: At the NIT Final

by Ray Floriani

New York City - The key to the game was defense. Baylor defeated Iowa 74-54 to win the National Invitation Tournament title at Madison Square Garden. While Baylor posted a glowing offensive efficiency, the foundation and framework for this championship originated on the defensive end.

	Offensive
	Eff.	Reb%
Iowa	78	38
Baylor	114	21

As impressive as the Baylor frontcourt performed during their New York stay, on both nights the Bears were defeated in offensive rebounding percentage. In fact Baylor coach Scott Drew was hard pressed to recall a time his team gave up 20 offensive boards, as they did in the finals, yet won by 20.

The rebounding deficit of Baylor was more than compensated by the outstanding job they did challenging, blocking and defending Iowa field goal attempts. Even after grabbing offensive boards the Hawkeyes struggled to finish, a testament to the Baylor frontcourt effectively guarding the rim.

Possessions vs. Plays: The old method used extensively by Dean Smith, calculated possessions by not subtracting an offensive rebound. In Smith's formula an offensive rebound started a new possession. Today that formula still has a usefullness as the calculation of Smith's gives us plays, rather than possessions. The formula:

FGA + (FTA * .475) + TO = Plays

The 'play' result:

	Offensive
	Plays	Eff.
Iowa	89	61
Baylor	70	106

Naturally, Iowa's 20-5 offensive rebounding edge provided more plays. Not converting on those added chances severely limited their 'play' efficiency. On the other hand, Baylor still put an impressive offensive efficiency for their plays.

	Eff.
	FG%
Iowa	30
Baylor	58

The Baylor defense and an offense that got on track in the second half. Bears were 22 of 33 (67%) from two point range on the evening. Iowa took 24 of their 69 attempts from three, hitting just five for a 20.8 percentage that reflects their eFG struggles.

For Baylor the celebration
began just after the final buzzer.

The individual honors:

Most Outstanding Player: Pierre Jackson, Baylor

All-Tournament:

Alex Len, Maryland
Roy Devyn Marble, Iowa
Cory Jefferson, Baylor
Isaiah Austin, Baylor