Friday, July 1, 2011

FIBA U19 World Championship -- Croatia Downs Canada by 4, Takes Control of Group C



After leading through the first half, Team Croatia found itself down by a single point, 63-62, to Team Canada in Group C play this evening in Liepaja, Latvia. They used the fourth period to outpoint the Canadians by five, 26-21 and close out the second day of Group C play 88-84. The win puts Croatia in control of Group C play as they are assured of a pass through to Group F and a spot in the next preliminary round. The Croatians will face winless Korea tomorrow to close out preliminary round Group C play, providing Team Croatia with the opportunity to bring a 3-0 record to the next preliminary round. For Team Canada, the road gets a bit tougher as they face Team Lithuania, stunned 75-88 by Croatia, in the first round of Group C play and no doubt motivated to finish Group C play strong. The Canada-Lithuania loser will also advance, but will carry the stigma of two losses into the next preliminary round. A third preliminary round loss coming in Group F play would most likely send that team into the classification round for places #9 - #12 to finish the tournament.

Croatia, paced by small forward Mario Hezonja's game-high 21 points and backed by center Boris Barac's 18 points and 16 rebounds, dominated the Canadians on their boards by grabbing 41 rebounds (32 defensive) to Canada's 36. The Canadians were paced by point guard Kevin Pangos' 19 points on 7-16 (5-11, 2-5) shooting from the field and 0-0 free throws.

FIBA U19 World Championship -- USA Beats Serbia, Grabs Lead in Group D Play

Taking Charge of Group D
Team USA thwarted a second half comeback by Team Serbia to squeeze out a two point win, 80-78, and take control of Group D play on the second day of preliminary pool play. With 0:48 left in period four, Tim Hardaway of Michigan hit a jumper to break a 78 point deadlock and give the USA win number two in group play. Serb point guard Aleksandar Cvetkovic led all scorers with 20 points on 6-12 (1-4, 5-7) shooting from the field and 7-9 shooting from the line. Memphis guard Joe Jackson paced Team USA with 19 points on 6-12 (0-1, 6-11) shooting with another 7-7 from the line. Three other Americans, Patric Young of Florida (13 points), Tony Mitchell of North Texas (11 points) and Hardaway, who scored the game winner, (11 points) logged double digit points. Jeremy Lamb of Connecticut, Doug McDermott of Creighton and Patric Young all grabbed game-high seven rebounds.

On the game's first possession Villanova's wing James Bell intercepted a Serb pass and fed Joe Jackson for an easy two to open the scoring at 2-0, USA. The two teams traded leads and ties for the next three minutes before Team USA broke on top and managed, despite a Serb rally and fourth tie of the period, to take a four point lead into the second period. Adding another three points to their 21-17 first period lead, the USA took a 38-31 lead into the locker room at the half. Team Serbia stormed back in the third period, slicing Team USA's lead back to four, 57-53, as the third period wound down. Team USA ceded another two points as they lost the fourth quarter, 23-25, to end the game with an 80-78 edge. Crunching the game boxscore to develop some possession-based stats for the game...

FTA
Poss.Eff.eFG%OR%TO%FGA
USA79.31.0143.743.324.042.9
Serbia0.9848.234.618.960.0

The winning margin derived from field goal attempts, the USA out "attempted" Serbia 63-55, converting three more opportunities (27 vs. 24) than the Serbs. Team Serbia had their chances, especially at the charity stripe, where they had six more attempts than Team USA. But with 25 free throw conversions apiece, the line proved a wash, leaving Serbia's Cvetkovic with a desparation three with four ticks left. Board domination, especially on offense, proved the difference in field goal attempts. While five players, Jackson (31.9%), Hardaway (26%), Lamb (24%), Meyers Leornard (24%) and Young (21%) took most of the shots when each was on the floor, Jackson (50 eFG%), Meyers (66.7 eFG%) and Young (100 eFG%) converted efficiently enough to keep the offense above water. Team USA has to feel good about their standings right now (certainly better than anyone else in Group D tonight), as they have almost certainly (barring a scoring catastrophe tomorrow) punched their ticket to second round preliminary play in Group F. The question is whether they can enter Group F play undefeated (an advantage for medal round consideration)...

Pools of Immediate Interest
Groups C & D standings with one game left to play in day two...

Group C Group D
WLWL
Canada10USA20
Croatia10Serbia11
Lithuania11Egypt11
South Korea02China02

Team China stumbled a second time, losing to Team Egypt by a close four point margin, 100-96 in other Group D action. That outcome is a bit surprising, and will set up an interesting third day of competition in Group D. Team China, if FIBA tie-breaking procedures from 2010 World Championships hold here, have already been eliminated from Group F play, even though they face Team USA tomorrow. Though both Serbia and Egypt will advance (again assuming the point differential versus competition is applied in Latvia), clearly the winner will be in a better position for advancement into the medal round. The Lithuanian U19 team sent Korea o the classification round with a resounding 117-64 win earlier. The Lithuanians will advance to Group F (and a rematch with Team USA) over the weekend, but long term opportunities will hinge on their match-up with Team Canada tomorrow. Today's Team Croatia versus Team Canada game will be worth following, as a Canadian win could set up a knotted group of Group C teams going into the next round; Canada will play Lithuania tomorrow. Crotia holds a 1-0 advantage over Canada in FIBA tournaments, having beaten the Canadians by six (83-77) in 2009. The Canadians and Lithuanians are 1-1 in FIBA tournaments going back to 2007.

Bell Tones
Villanova rising sophomore James Bell started his second game of the tournament and played 26 minutes, scoring four points on 1-5 (0-0, 1-5) shooting from the field and 2-2 from the line. Bell snagged two (defensive) rebounds and two steals for Team USA. Ironically Bell's two steals came very early -- on the first Serb possession of the game -- and very late. Playing the fourth period with four fouls Bell intercepted an Aleksandar Cvetkovic pass with 0:44 on the clock, killing the Serb possession. Though the ball was turned back over 20 seconds later, the Serbs were only able to get one more shot, a missed three by Cvetkovic, as the clock wound down.

Who's Got Next?
Team USA will face off against China tomorrow at 6:15pm local time (11:15 EDST) in Liepaja, Latvia. Team China will play in the first round of classifications (places #13-#16), but Team USA should not take the Chinese lightly. They lost to Serbia by only five, and should morale not be a problem, are in a position to lay an unpleasant surprise on USA's U19'ers if they are taken too lightly. The key would be a big first period lead -- by either squad. If Team USA has a double digit lead, expect Coach Hewitt to rest players in periods three and four. If the game is close (or Team USA is down), Hewitt may be forced to keep his starters on the floor, much like the Serbia game today, longer than he would like. Team USA holds a 5-1 advantage in head-to-head competitions with Team China going back to 1997.

Thursday, June 30, 2011

FIBA U19 World Championship -- USA Dominates Egypt to Open U19 Tournament

Playing to Seed
Team USA hammered Team Egypt 115-60 to open their defense of the U19 FIBA World Championships in Latvia this morning. Opening with a scoring outburst absent in their two exhibition games, the USA U19s piled on a 20 point advantage in the first period, 25-5, then withstood an Egyptian response in the second period to add another point (25-24) going into halftime. Creighton's rising sophomore Doug McDermott led all scorers with 19 points on 8-11 (3-4, 5-7) shooting. All 12 Americans in Coach Hewitt's rotation scored today, while McDermott, son of Creighton head coach Greg McDermott was the most prolific of seven double-digit American scorers. Jeremy Lamb, rising sophomore out of Connecticut nearly matched McDermott with 15 points on 6-12 (3-6, 3-6) shooting. Seven foot Meyers Leonard, another rising sophomore, this time out of Illinois, grabbed a game-high 11 (6-5-11) rebounds to log his first double-double in international competition. Crunching the game boxscore to develop some possession-based stats for the game...

FTA
Poss.Eff.eFG%OR%TO%FGA
USA81.21.4265.147.614.738.2
Egypt0.7332.932.720.824.7

The pace is still higher than many of these Division 1 players -- and Coach Paul Hewitt -- played last season, but today, against the Egyptians, it worked out well. The Americans shot efficiently (Michigan's rising sophomore Tim Hardaway dialed back his shot production and drastically improved his conversion efficiency), and those who formed the nucleus of the American offense, Joe Jackson (rising sophomore, Memphis, 15 points), Jeremy Lamb, Doug McDermott, Keith Appling (rising sophomore, Michigan State, 10 points) and Leonard all scored at a 58.7% eFG% or better (much better in most cases). The losses in exhibition were significant enough to wrinkle a few MSM eyebrows on this side of the pond. A 55 point margin of victory over Egypt suggests this team can dominate lesser competition. The question is how competitive will they prove to be against the better teams in the field.

Pools of Immediate Interest
Groups C & D will eventually be folded into Group F for a second round robin phase early next week. The standings at the end of opening day play...

Group C Group D
WLWL
Canada10USA10
Croatia10Serbia10
Lithuania01China01
South Korea01Egypt01

Team Serbia downed Team China by a surprisingly close five point margin, 78-73 in other Group D action. If the scores are true barometers (and not opening day jitters...), play in Group D will be either very competitive...or not. The news that Team Crotia beat the Lithuanian U19 squad (that beat the American U19 team by 31) 88-73 caught me by surprise, more so by the margin (15) than the outcome. Are the Lithuanians prematurely celebrating, or are the Croates that good? Team Canada dispatched South Korea by a similar margin, 16 in their opening day 109-93 win.

Bell Tones
Villanova's rising sophomore James Bell started the game and played 15 minutes, scoring 4 points on 2-5 (0-1, 2-4) shooting. Bell picked up 2 rebounds and 3 fouls, while dishing 2 assists and 2 steals.

Who's Got Next?
The USA's U19ers will get to it tomorrow, as the Americans face off against Team Serbia at 4:00pm (local time, 10:00am EDST). The Serbs have beaten American teams in international competition before, so there will be no intimidation factors to count on in game two. The winner will punch their ticket to preliminary round two and Group F play, while the loser will have to wait on the outcome of the Egypt-China game.

Further Reading...
USA Basketball's game recap
Additional game game quotes from the coaches and s few of the players.

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

FIBA U19 2011 World Championship -- Ouch...

Granted the Grames Don't Count, But...
The USA U19 men's team arrived in Lithuania on June 25 for the U19 FIBA tournament which opens play tomorrow (June 30). It is typical (and prudent) to enter a warmup tournament to continue preparation, and part of the plan, the U19 USA team entered the Youth Global Games Tournament, held in Lithuania. The Americans one of about eight U19 teams in the field drew two Lithuanian teams, the U20 and the U19 teams, as their opponents.

FTA
Poss.Eff.eFG%OR%TO%FGA
USA87.20.8439.531.918.326.3
Lithuania U201.1656.034.117.262.7

The U20 team has been together for a year longer than the U19 Lithuanian team (which has been together at least 11 monthes longer than the USA team...), but the results are nevertheless disappointing. American shooting was definitely off, especially three point shooting. Was the distance difference, 20 feet 9 inches to 22 feet the principal culpret? Maybe, but American teams have had to compete with the deeper line since (at least) 2008. Team USA is listed everywhere as the U19 Champion (from the 2009 tournament). A chance to knock of "the champ" may play into the Lithuanian mentality. A shame given these players were not rostered on the 2009 team. Shooting 35% from inside the arc was not even on par with the Lithuanians' three point conversion rate, 36%, meaning the Americans were in deep trouble from the onset. The box score indicated that the Lithuanians jumped on Team USA from the opening whistle, building a 32-8 lead going into the second (10 minute) period, where they padded that lead (-24) with another eight points. Down by 32 at the half, Team USA had few strategic options. Lithuania's U20 team converted 49.3% of their two's, yielding an overall eFG% of 56.0%, a very difficult conversion rate to overcome. Countering with an eFG% of 39.5% would be enough, on it's face, to lose, but Team USA was also dominated on the boards (OR% was 31.9 vs. 34.1) and could not compensate by getting to the line (see table above, 26.3% vs 62.7% -- the Americans were not especially aggressive in the low post?). The final deficit, -29 (101-72) was slightly better than the half. Would Team USA do better against their tournament counterparts? Ahhh no...

FTA
Poss.Eff.eFG%OR%TO%FGA
USA93.50.8035.633.322.546.6
Lithuania U191.1653.845.025.769.7

The net score was -33 (108-75), four points worse than the scoring net versus the Lithuanian U20 team. Though the Americans did not get rolled at the opening tip, losing the first period by 11, 34-23, they could not regain the ground in the second period. They yielded another 10 points in the second 10 minutes to take a -21 gap (38-59) into the locker room. But the third period proved even worse as Team USA ceded another 17 points to the Lithuanians before cutting into some of that -38 gap in the final 10 minutes. Compare the two possession-based breakdowns and note the similarities, especially in shooting and rebounding, considered the two more important elements in offensive and defensive efficiency (Eff. in the tables above). Small "victories" in the turnover rate versus Lithuania U19 and getting to the line more than against the U20 team. The Americans continue however, to foul far too much. As the box score indicates, the European teams are more inclined to hit their free throws (80%), fouling offers no advantage.

Team USA, with better athletes and higher skill levels, should do well against Egypt, their first opening game opponent, but Serbia, game two (on Friday), may, if Team USA does not get their shot conversion and rebounding in order, give Team USA another rude surprise. Coming so early in the tournament, a first loss will only increase the pressure on the young squad.

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

FIBA U19 2011 World Championship -- The Field is Set

16 Teams, Three Stages
The FIBA U19 World Championship field includes 16 teams (see Preliminary Pool below). FIBA will operate this tournament in three phases to determine the champion and set the finish for each participating team. ;

The pool for the preliminary round will include four groups (A, B, C & D) of four teams each:

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup D
BrazilArgentinaCanadaChina
PolandAustraliaCroatiaEgypt
RussiaLatviaLithuaniaSerbia
TunisiaTaiwanSouth KoreaUSA

The first preliminary round will have each group play three games, round robin style, with the other teams in the group. The top three teams from each group will be reorganized into two groups (E & F) of six teams each (Groups A & B will be assigned to Group E; Groups C & D will be assigned to Group F) for a second sequence of three games against the three teams from the other original group (A teams will play B teams; C teams will play D teams). The four teams not assigned to a second round group will play a two round classification sequence to determine places #13 - #16 in the tournament. The USA schedule for the first preliminary round is below; all first preliminary round games can be found at the USA Basketball and the FIBA World Cup sites. Team USA will play all three Group D games in Liepaja, Latvia...

Est. Time
DateOpponentDST
06/30/11 ThursEgypt9:00am
07/01/11 Fri.Serbia9:00am
07/02/11 Sat.China11:15am

Note start times are given in Eastern Daylight Savings time, approximately -7GMT from the time scheduled in Latvia.

From the second round of group play, the top four teams from Groups E & F (eight teams total) will advance to the medal round to play a quarterfinal game against an opponent from the other group (each group will be seeded for quarterfinal play). The winners will advance to the semi-finals, the losers will play a two round classification match for places #5 - #8. The last two teams from Groups E & F will advance to a two game classification round to determine places #9 - #12. Medal round quarterfinal winners will advance to a semi-final round, the semi-final winners to play for #1 and #2 place (gold and silver), while the semi-final losing teams play for places #3 and #4 (bronze and fourth place).

Sorting Out the Field in Groups C, D & F Play
A single loss in either of the two preliminary round robin phases would not, depending on the standing of the other teams in the group, doom Team USA to a classification round game in the third phase of the tournament. Since four teams will advance out of Group F, more than likely spots #3 and #4 (F3 and F4 in the medal round quarterfinal) will be settled on points and tie-breakers. A lower seed going into the quarterfinal medal round would not be fatal, but it would mean facing three (should Team USA continue to win...) of the most competitive teams in the field in the last three games. Team USA should advance out of Group D, the game with Serbia serving as an early indication of how the team will fare against the more competitive teams they will encounter in Group E (and medal round?) games. Canada, Croatia and Lithuana should advance out of Group C. Both Crotia and Canada advanced to the medal round(s) in the 2009 U19 tournament before falling to Team USA. The Team USA-Team Lithuania exhibition game being played today (Tuesday June 28) in Vilnius, Lithuania should give a hint on how that second round, Group F, matchup should go. Though Team Canada and Team Croatia should be capable of surprises, it is the games with Teams Lithuania and Serbia that will determine whether Team USA can advance to the medal rounds with a #1 or #2 Group F seed, or finish the tournament in a classification game.

Other Teams & Matchups of Interest
Group A teams that should advance to Group E include Poland, Russia and Brazil. Given the proximity of the tournament, expect both Poland and Russia (and Lithuania), along with host Latvia to enjoy a home court advantage against teams from outside the Baltic region. Poland and Russia in particular should be worth following, but Team Brazil, which finished strongly in the U18 competition last year (and returns the nucleus of that team) maybe the surprise candidate and advance to the medal round at the expense of one of the European teams. Out of Group B, expect Argentina, Australia and host Latvia to advance. How far can the hometown crowds carry Team Latvia? Over the past few years, Team Latvia has finished FIBA zone and world tournaments somewhere in the middle of the field...they may get to the Medal Round quarterfinals (beyond typical expectations), but most likely fight for a place in the #5-#10 standings. The older age classification teams for Argentina have done better in international competition than the younger teams. Matchups with the Poles and Russians (and Brazilians) in the Group E round should be a good barometer on how far the Argentines can go. Team Australia advanced by sweeping a very small field in the Oceania Zone, their games against Argentina and Latvia should provide a preview on how far the Emus can advance beyond Group E play.

Sunday, June 26, 2011

FIBA Americas Cup 2011 -- USA Beats Argentina Twice in 72 Hours, Takes Gold

USA 104 - Argentina 64
Team USA was consistent throughout the 2011 U16 FIBA Americas Cup Tournament. They took the gold medal in Cancun tonight, beating Argentina for the second time this week and dominating the field both offensively and defensively throughout the tournament. Team USA played the game at their pace, converted over 50% of field goals and dominated board play as they upped the victory margin versus Team Argentina to 40, 104-64. Aaron Gordon led all scorers with 24 points as the forward and teammate Jahlil Okafor each recorded their second double-double of the tournament. Gordon scored 24 points on 11-15 (0-0, 11-15) shooting from the floor to go with a not-so-good 2-7 night from the line. Gordon also led all rebounders with 15 (4-11-15) rebounds. Okafor scored 18 points to go with his 14 rebounds. Three other Team USA players, Justin Jackson (13), Theo Pinson (10) and Jabari Parker (14) scored 10 or more points. Team USA, no doubt sensing the gold, jumped on the Argentines right from the tip-off. Not allowing Team Argentina the time nor space to find their game, Team USA took a 13 lead, 30-17, out of the first period and extended it to 24, 54-30 by the half. After a more competitive third period (24-21 Team USA), the Americans turned on the afterburners and stretched the lead out to it's final spot at 40, 104-64 to end the game. Crunching the game boxscore to develop some possession-based stats for the game...

FTA
Poss.Eff.eFG%OR%TO%FGA
USA87.01.2060.745.718.436.0
Argentina0.7437.724.017.216.9

Any solace for Team Argentina can be derived from the fact they are the only team that held the USA to under 90 possessions in this tournament. They could not stop Team USA from posting an extremely efficient offensive (1.20 ppp) and defensive (0.74 ppp) point-per-possession rates. A gold medal game with an opponent who had seen the USA once before most likely explains why Coach Don Showalter felt the need to rely on a nine man rotation with four players drawing > 50% of the time at their position. If the playing time was not evenly distributed, shot percentages and possession rates among five members of the rotation suggest they were leading contributors on offense. Like the Costa Rico game, five players took 20% or more of the available shots when they were on the court, while seven were credited with 20% or more of the possessions while they were playing.

Aaron Gordon had a red-letter night on the boards, while Jabari Parker also grabbed more than his share of offensive boards.

Final Standings
After pool play the field was reseeded for the last two rounds. The last two teams in each Group was assigned to the classification pool where they played off for places #5-#8. The first two teams in each Group qualified for the medal playoffs. The final standings based on the finals played Saturday...

Medal Round Classification Round
WLWL
1USA (gold)505Brazil32
2Argentina (silver)326Chile23
3Canada (bronze)327Mexico14
4Puerto Rico328Costa Rico05

Team USA, Team Argentina and Team Canada earned berths in the 2012 FIBA U17 World Championships.

Winners... -- The top three finishers, USA, Argentina and Canada. They qualify the FIBA U18 World Championships. Team Canada -- The Neighbors to the North had the misfortune of drawing the USA and Puerto Rico for three of the five games they played at the Americas Cup this week. They managed to win one of the three (that is all they really needed to get to the World Championship next year). Team Brazil -- Though they were relegated to the Classification Bracket at the end of Pool Play, the Brazilians nevertheless managed a winning record (3-2) and a fifth place finish.

...& Losers -- Team Puerto Rico -- the Puerto Ricans swept the Centrobasket Tournament field 5-0 to qualify for the American Cup. Through Thursday it looked like the Puerto Ricans were ready for Team USA, as they also swept through their Group A slate almost as easily as they did the Centrobasket field week before. They dug a 24 point hole in their semi-final game with Argentina, but despite a furious fourth period rally, fell short and were relegated to the bronze medal game, a rematch with Team Canada, a team they beat by four on Wednesday. The Canadians took a leaf from Team Argentina's book and jumped all over the Puerto Ricans right from the start, building a 19 point lead in the first period. Team Argentina then extended their lead by three more before the half (40-18). There was no furious fourth period rally to make the final score a bit more respectable Saturday night however, as Team Puerto Rico could only cut the final deficit back to 21, 86-65. To have lost their ticket to the U18 World Championship after going on an 8-0 run has to be devastating to the young team. Team Costa Rico -- The Costa Ricans backed into the Americas Cup field when Belize squandered their last game in the Centrobasket Tournament the week before the Americas Cup. The Costa Ricans were simply not ready to compete effectively at this level however, as suggested by the -0.736 efficiency difference logged through the five games of this tournament.

Friday, June 24, 2011

FIBA Americas Cup 2011 -- USA Beats Canada, Goes for Gold

USA 113 - Canada 70
Team USA jumped on Team Canada from the opening tip, opening a 10 point lead on their first six possessions, and they never let the Canadians back into the game, building a 31-7 lead through the first period. Team USA extended their lead in each of the next two periods, taking a 63-28 lead into the half, and a 92-44 into the last period. Team Canada exacted a small solace in winning the fourth period 26-21 to soften their losing margin to 43, 113-70. Aaron Gordon led all scorers with 22 points on 11-16 (0-0, 11-16) shooting. Four of his teammates, Jahlil Okafor (16 points), Theo Pinson (15 points), Justin Jackson (14 points) and Kendrick Nunn (10 points), scored double digit points. Canadian Miroslav Jaksic and Aaron Gordon paced the rebounders with eight apiece. Malcolm Duvivier and Anthony Pate paced the Canadians with 10 points apiece. Crunching the game boxscore to develop some possession-based stats for the game...

FTA
Poss.Eff.eFG%OR%TO%FGA
USA94.81.1956.337.813.727.3
Canada0.7436.934.824.118.8

Team Canada could not solve the USA's speedy pace and efficient offensive (1.19 ppp) and defensive (0.74 ppp) point-per-possession rates, an absolutely killing combination in this tournament. Coach Don Showalter again distributed playing time fairly evenly among the 11 man rotation he used today. Only two players logged 20 or more minutes (50% or greater of the playing time for a single position), the smallest playing time allocation, 15 minutes, equivalent to a 1½ periods or 37.5% of the playing time for a single position. Possessions, shooting and scoring followed the playing time, with nine players getting 19.7% or more of the possessions when each was on the floor, and five taking 20% or more of the shots when they were on the floor. no doubt contributed to evenly distributed shot percentages and possession rates among the five on the court. Five players took 20% or more of the available shots when they were on the court, while nine were credited with 20% or more of the possessions while they were playing.

Team Canada can draw some consolation in their board work today, matching Team USA for number of rebounds gathered, and snagging a higher percentage of their misses (34.8%) than any of Team USA's previous three opponents. Gordon pulled down a jaw-dropping 31.?% of the offensive boards when he was on the floor, while Pinson continues to gather extremely rates on the offensive boards. Okafor and Jon Williams also had a strong outing on the offensive glass. A sign of growing trust on the team perhaps, the assist rates have improved with each game. Against the Canadians it was a very encouraging 65.2%.

Who's Got Next?
Team USA is bound for the Tournament Finals. If the current scoring margin holds, the U16 USA team will play another game against Team Argentina. The Argentines currently hold a 19 point lead (71-52) over Team Puerto Rico with seven plus minutes left in the fourth period. The Gold Medal game will tip at 8:00pm (ET) tomorrow in Cancun.