The Value of Corey Stokes

For Want of a Nail a Kingdom Was Lost
Senior wing Corey Stokes has been DNP-injury in the Wildcats' last three games (Pittsburgh, Seton Hall & DePaul), but the senior indicated that he pulled/strained a hamstring in the Cincinnati game (January 9), followed by a turf toe injury in the Wildcats' loss to Georgetown (January 29). Though his minutes declined from 34.3 to 30.1 (Big East conference games only), observers noticed a decline in his offensive efficiency (and defensive capability). Looking at Ken Pomeroy's efficiency stats, game-by-game for Villanova's 14 Big East games so far...

	Record			Average (Raw)
Games...	W	L	Pct.	Pace	Off.	Def.	Net	PWP
RU - Providence	5	2	0.714	68.4	1.12	1.02	0.101	0.748
GTown - DePaul	4	3	0.571	61.4	1.09	1.04	0.049	0.630

Seven games on both sides of the divide, but the difference shows just about everywhere, from the won-loss record, to the offensive and defensive efficiencies (points scored and allowed per possession), to the Pythagorean Winning Percentage. The numbers would suggest the greatest impact has been offensive, and many in the Nova Nation would agree the lack of a (more) consistent three point threat has diminished what the staff wants the offense to do most -- penetrate and finish/dish/pass into the low post. With an inconsistent threat on the perimeter, those teams who send help to stop dribble penetration are too often rewarded with a defensive stop. The drop in pace (possessions) is shocking -- a 10.2% decline in per game possessions this late in the season signals a dramatic change in playing style (or certainly in personnel in the rotation). Stokes is not noted for his end-to-end speed, but compared to the players who have taken those minutes, there is little doubt the offense was able to get a field goal attempt off earlier in the shot clock when Stokes was on the court. A comparison of Oliver's four factors, before and after for both offense and defense reveals a few more interesting things about the team's offensive and defensive efficiency...

	On Offense
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	ORb%	FGA
Thru PC	52.4	19.0	38.1	48.4
Thru DePaul	51.3	19.6	37.1	48.3

The deline in shot conversion efficiency (eFG%) is understandable -- Stokes was one of the best in conference prior to his turf toe injury. Pulling a sophomore off the bench and expecting him to pick up that role without missing a beat is unrealistic (and unfair). The slightly higher turnover rate may, like the lower pace, reflect a renewed commitment to a low post-oriented game. Entry passes get deflected and stolen. The decline in the rate of free throws to field goal attempts, very modest, may derive more from losing games. The team behind tends to commit "possession fouls" at the end of a close game. Villanova's additional loss has diminished the need to foul.

	On Defense
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	ORb%	FGA
Thru PC	45.9	19.1	32.7	41.5
Thru DePaul	47.2	16.6	30.8	34.0

The change in virtually every factor defensively is interesting, and unlike the offensive factors, where most changed at the margins, here I found rather significant movement in several stats. Note the declines in turnovers and free throw rate -- both suggest the defense has become more passive. Passive defenses do not force turnovers and put the other team on the line. One would expect, with the additional loss, to see a slight uptick in the defensive FTA/FGA (remember the possession fouls?), but it does not show here. I did find better defensive rebounding (a lower ORb% on the defensive side is a better number). Most likely a reflection of the longer players seeing more court time.

Offensive Ratings -- the Back Court

I wanted to post something about the offensive ratings of the players before the season wore on much longer. The end of the Big East regular season seemed like a good time to stop and take a look. I mapped the Offensive Ratings for each player in the back court (as opposed to the wings...) weekly, and decided to graph those weekly readings from the Big East regular season (roughly 1/05/09 through 3/08/09) to provide a visual aid on how the season progressed (or did not progress) for Nova's back court contingent. To keep the chart from becoming too cluttered, I mapped Reggie Redding, Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher together. These three tend to handle the ball and run the offense when they are in (something I have noticed Redding seems to do more as the season wore on). The results are interesting...



The Wildcats took off on a 10-2 run beginning in late January. Looking at the chart it is easy to note the Wildcat's progress parallels the progress made by both Reggie Redding and Corey Fisher. Fisher in particular made a very dramatic jump during the early-to-mid February period before falling back a bit. Redding's progress may not be as dramatic, but is nevertheless encouraging because Redding has had problems getting to and maintaining an ORtg above 100 ever since his freshman season. Redding's year-over-year progress is very encouraging. Reynolds made a nice jump in early January, as reflected in several early Big East games (his 40 point performance against Seton Hall comes to mind quickly), and began to draw a good deal of defensive attention. His numbers have not climbed dramatically, but that is not cause for concern as Scottie typically draws a good deal of defensive pressure given his playing time (79.0%), possessions he typically draws (about 24.8%) and shooting responsibilities (about 24.4%). Going forward into next year, all three guards are expected back. Very good news for the team.

Thanks go out to Ken Pomeroy for the use of the data from his Villanova Scout Page.