Deadlines, Real & Imagined...
The close of the Spring Signing Period may seem arbitrary as a watershed for the coaching job market, but there is an internal rhythem to program management (and department administration) that suggests there are several points on the annual timeline when creating (and filling) coaching vacancies would ebb and flow. Though the past few seasons may hint at a change, Athletic Directors have been loathe to fire coaches during the season. At one time this was a step taken only when there were serious violations to the coaching contract (termination for cause for example) or illness. If the past few seasons have seen a coach fired over wins and losses, an AD who was slow to pull the trigger was more likely the root than a specific development. Many schools want a coach in place by the first day of the Spring Signing Period (April 15 this year) to give the new coach the best opportunity to hold onto athletes already committed to the program, and to gather LOIs from those high schoolers and JUCOs still available. After the close of the signing period (May 18 this year), the focus most likely changes to summer school, off season conditioning routines, summer league play and (for the staff) the next "open period" in the recruiting cycle. Job searches and interviews become a distraction and the individuals/programs making changes this late tend to find themselves at a disadvantage relative to others in their conference and Division 1. Need for change has to overcome the inertia of "no change" to motivate an AD to fire a coach, or for a coach to leave his (or her) job...
Annapolis Sneezes and Happy Valley Catches Cold
Navy's Coach Billy Lange became the latest in a growing list of non-BCS head coaches who give up a first chair for an assistant position at a BCS conference program. Buzz Williams left New Orleans for Marquette in 2007 and late last April Dane Fife left Dane Fife left IPFW to be Tom Izzo's assistant at Michigan. For Lange, who guided the Navy program for seven seasons, logging a 93-113 record at Annapolis, the money and return to the familiar surroundings of the Main Line were too tempting. Coming off of two consecutive seasons in which his Villanova squad sputtered in the last month of the season, Coach Wright reached out to a no nonsense former assistant coach, offering Lange the Associate Head Coach job. Meanwhile, in Happy Valley, Penn State Coach Ed DeChellis, a PSU graduate and five year head coach, was coming off of his second best year as the Nittany Lions mentor. The 'Nits logged a 9-9 record in Big Ten conference play and earned their first NCAA bid in 10 years. When overtures to raise an assistant coach's pay and extend his own contract beyond 2014 were rebuffed, DeChellis starting looking around, and, if the article cited at The Blackburn Review are to be believed, he was in the mix for the Dayton job during the NCAA Tournament. Navy however, could not match his Penn State salary, so why did DeChellis make the move (especially this late in the cycle)? Most likely job security -- Navy offered a five year guarranteed contract, which would take him out to 2016 -- and possibly a better working environment. The Patriot-News' David Jones asserted that PSU, a football-first school vastly under appreciated DeChellis and, with a small program budget, placed the program at a competitive disadvantage to other Big Ten schools. Should Penn State hire an active Division 1 coach (according to a progress report the active coaches on PSU's To-Do List include Duquesne's Ron Everhart (interviewed), Boston University's Pat Chambers (another Villanova connection in this sequence) and UW-Milwaukee's Rob Jeter (a minor error in the blog post -- Derek plays baseball for the NY Yankees...I don't think he coaches men's basketball for walking around money...) along with a few unemployed coaches (ex-Utah coach Jim Boylen, Larry Brown, etc) and an assistant. If Athletic Director Tim Curley chooses an active Division 1 coach, the chain reaction started by Navy (Navy [Lange] <-- Penn State [DeChellis] <-- ?) may equal or better the chain reaction triggered by Gary Williams' retirement at Maryland (Maryland [Williams] <-- Texas A&M [Turgeon] <-- Murray State [Kennedy])!
More Typical for This Point in the Cycle...
Though the "normal remedy" is dismissal for cause, Radford's Brad Greenburg was suspended for the last four games of the season on February 14, as the school monitored an ongoing NCAA investigation into impermissible travel for an ineligible player (who had been suspended by the NCAA earlier for playing on a semi-pro team in France). Radford was struggling through the worst season in program history, 5-24. Though Greenburg had two winning seasons, a Big South championship and NCAA bid in his four seasons at Roanoke, Virginia school, his overall record was a disappointing 55-68, and the program's accumulated baggage, several secondary NCAA violations similar to the 2011 allegations, arrests and a steady flow of outbound transfers appear to have been strikes against him. Though Greenburg continued to circulate a newsletter to the Highlander boosters, by May 16 rumors and leaks pointed to an imminent regime change. Did the NCAA investigation turn up another smoking gun, or had Athletic Director Robert Lineburg decided there was too much baggage to continue with Greenburg? A buyout or other monitary inducement most likely persuaded Greenburg to resign. Lineburg promised a national search, to commence immediately, but only one report speculated on a candidate pool, which largely consisted of regional names (ex-GWU coach Karl Hobbs, ex-UNC Wilmington coach Benny Moss, and several assistant coaches).
By the Numbers...
In the last Coaching Carousal post I suggested this cycle would yield between 48 and 53 vacancies. So far there are 54 (caveat emptor!), which exceeds the number of vacancies in 2010 (53) a supposed "catch up" year after the unusually low 2009 cycle (32)...so much for those who asserted this would be a down year in the cycle. The post Spring Signing Period turnover is a bit unusual. Looking at the years 2007 through 2010, it seems the even numbered years (2008 & 2010) have relatively small turnover rates (2%-4% of the vacancies in the cycle), while the odd numbered years (2007 & 2009) have relatively high turnover rates (15%-19% of the vacancies in the cycle). With two vacancies since May 18, 2011's post signing period vacancy rate is just under 4% -- a 15% vacancy rate would translate into a total of 61 vacancies for the cycle, or another seven turnovers. That seems high to me, but I would not be surprised if another two or three vacancies, taken at the initiative of the Athletic Director (coaches behaving badly) or the coach. There are several as yet unresolved situations (UConn -- Coach Calhoun may retire; Penn State's job search may open another Division 1 vacancy, etc) among the coaches. Projecting a few more openings is not unreasonable. 56? 58? Stay tuned.
The close of the Spring Signing Period may seem arbitrary as a watershed for the coaching job market, but there is an internal rhythem to program management (and department administration) that suggests there are several points on the annual timeline when creating (and filling) coaching vacancies would ebb and flow. Though the past few seasons may hint at a change, Athletic Directors have been loathe to fire coaches during the season. At one time this was a step taken only when there were serious violations to the coaching contract (termination for cause for example) or illness. If the past few seasons have seen a coach fired over wins and losses, an AD who was slow to pull the trigger was more likely the root than a specific development. Many schools want a coach in place by the first day of the Spring Signing Period (April 15 this year) to give the new coach the best opportunity to hold onto athletes already committed to the program, and to gather LOIs from those high schoolers and JUCOs still available. After the close of the signing period (May 18 this year), the focus most likely changes to summer school, off season conditioning routines, summer league play and (for the staff) the next "open period" in the recruiting cycle. Job searches and interviews become a distraction and the individuals/programs making changes this late tend to find themselves at a disadvantage relative to others in their conference and Division 1. Need for change has to overcome the inertia of "no change" to motivate an AD to fire a coach, or for a coach to leave his (or her) job...
Annapolis Sneezes and Happy Valley Catches Cold
Navy's Coach Billy Lange became the latest in a growing list of non-BCS head coaches who give up a first chair for an assistant position at a BCS conference program. Buzz Williams left New Orleans for Marquette in 2007 and late last April Dane Fife left Dane Fife left IPFW to be Tom Izzo's assistant at Michigan. For Lange, who guided the Navy program for seven seasons, logging a 93-113 record at Annapolis, the money and return to the familiar surroundings of the Main Line were too tempting. Coming off of two consecutive seasons in which his Villanova squad sputtered in the last month of the season, Coach Wright reached out to a no nonsense former assistant coach, offering Lange the Associate Head Coach job. Meanwhile, in Happy Valley, Penn State Coach Ed DeChellis, a PSU graduate and five year head coach, was coming off of his second best year as the Nittany Lions mentor. The 'Nits logged a 9-9 record in Big Ten conference play and earned their first NCAA bid in 10 years. When overtures to raise an assistant coach's pay and extend his own contract beyond 2014 were rebuffed, DeChellis starting looking around, and, if the article cited at The Blackburn Review are to be believed, he was in the mix for the Dayton job during the NCAA Tournament. Navy however, could not match his Penn State salary, so why did DeChellis make the move (especially this late in the cycle)? Most likely job security -- Navy offered a five year guarranteed contract, which would take him out to 2016 -- and possibly a better working environment. The Patriot-News' David Jones asserted that PSU, a football-first school vastly under appreciated DeChellis and, with a small program budget, placed the program at a competitive disadvantage to other Big Ten schools. Should Penn State hire an active Division 1 coach (according to a progress report the active coaches on PSU's To-Do List include Duquesne's Ron Everhart (interviewed), Boston University's Pat Chambers (another Villanova connection in this sequence) and UW-Milwaukee's Rob Jeter (a minor error in the blog post -- Derek plays baseball for the NY Yankees...I don't think he coaches men's basketball for walking around money...) along with a few unemployed coaches (ex-Utah coach Jim Boylen, Larry Brown, etc) and an assistant. If Athletic Director Tim Curley chooses an active Division 1 coach, the chain reaction started by Navy (Navy [Lange] <-- Penn State [DeChellis] <-- ?) may equal or better the chain reaction triggered by Gary Williams' retirement at Maryland (Maryland [Williams] <-- Texas A&M [Turgeon] <-- Murray State [Kennedy])!
More Typical for This Point in the Cycle...
Though the "normal remedy" is dismissal for cause, Radford's Brad Greenburg was suspended for the last four games of the season on February 14, as the school monitored an ongoing NCAA investigation into impermissible travel for an ineligible player (who had been suspended by the NCAA earlier for playing on a semi-pro team in France). Radford was struggling through the worst season in program history, 5-24. Though Greenburg had two winning seasons, a Big South championship and NCAA bid in his four seasons at Roanoke, Virginia school, his overall record was a disappointing 55-68, and the program's accumulated baggage, several secondary NCAA violations similar to the 2011 allegations, arrests and a steady flow of outbound transfers appear to have been strikes against him. Though Greenburg continued to circulate a newsletter to the Highlander boosters, by May 16 rumors and leaks pointed to an imminent regime change. Did the NCAA investigation turn up another smoking gun, or had Athletic Director Robert Lineburg decided there was too much baggage to continue with Greenburg? A buyout or other monitary inducement most likely persuaded Greenburg to resign. Lineburg promised a national search, to commence immediately, but only one report speculated on a candidate pool, which largely consisted of regional names (ex-GWU coach Karl Hobbs, ex-UNC Wilmington coach Benny Moss, and several assistant coaches).
By the Numbers...
In the last Coaching Carousal post I suggested this cycle would yield between 48 and 53 vacancies. So far there are 54 (caveat emptor!), which exceeds the number of vacancies in 2010 (53) a supposed "catch up" year after the unusually low 2009 cycle (32)...so much for those who asserted this would be a down year in the cycle. The post Spring Signing Period turnover is a bit unusual. Looking at the years 2007 through 2010, it seems the even numbered years (2008 & 2010) have relatively small turnover rates (2%-4% of the vacancies in the cycle), while the odd numbered years (2007 & 2009) have relatively high turnover rates (15%-19% of the vacancies in the cycle). With two vacancies since May 18, 2011's post signing period vacancy rate is just under 4% -- a 15% vacancy rate would translate into a total of 61 vacancies for the cycle, or another seven turnovers. That seems high to me, but I would not be surprised if another two or three vacancies, taken at the initiative of the Athletic Director (coaches behaving badly) or the coach. There are several as yet unresolved situations (UConn -- Coach Calhoun may retire; Penn State's job search may open another Division 1 vacancy, etc) among the coaches. Projecting a few more openings is not unreasonable. 56? 58? Stay tuned.
