Thoughts on the 2008-09 Schedule

The Big East conference schools released their schedules on Thursday this year. You can find the official Villanova schedule on the University's web site. As I entered the schedule on my computer I had a chance to review it and gather my thoughts.
Out of Conference
Coach Mass brings his Northwood team to town to kick off the Wildcat's 2008-09 season with an exhibition in the Wachovia Center. The game will be played on November 6. Nova will begin the season with a 4 game homestand, the first game to be played against the Albany greyhounds at the Pavillion on November 14. The Wildcats will host Fordham, Niagara and Monmouth in sequence (the last 2 teams constitue the first two rounds of The 2008 Philly Classic) before moving on to the Palestra to close out the last two rounds of The 2008 Philly Classic against Towson and either Rhode Island or Penn State. The combined 2007-08 record of the first 5 opponents was 66-84 (.440), not an intimidating run of opponents. Albany (15-15), Niagara (19-10) and Monmouth (7-24) are expected to post better records this season, due largely to talent upgrades (Niagara will add Big East transfers Rob Garrison and Philadelphia's own Bilal Benn to an already strong back court contingent headed by Ty Lewis also from the Phildelphia area) or a maturing squad -- both Albany and Monmouth, like Villanova, started mostly sophomores and freshmen last season. The Philly Classic will offer a 4^th round matchup between either Rhode Island (21-12) or Penn State (15-16). Rhode Island scoring leader Will Daniels and assist leader Parfait Bitee. The (URI) Rams may have to work to match last season's record. Penn State will most likely struggle again in the Big Ten. Looking ahead to the end of the season, drawing Rhode Island in the last round may be better for Villanova's SOS. Playing six games in November is new for Villanova. Looking back over the past 4-5 seasons, the previous high was 5 games, while the lowest number was 1 game.
This year the trend to make December Villanova's "Big 5 Month" is complete with the St. Joseph's Hawks vacating their (lately) traditional early February slot for an early December date. The Wildcats kick off the mini-season on December 2 against the Penn Quakers and conclude, against the Temple Owls, on December 29. The Big 5 segment, based on last season's records actually looks like the stronger part of the Wildcat's OOC schedule. The city school combined record in 2007-08 was 70-61 (.534). Along with the Big 5 Villanova will face off against Texas in Madison Square Garden on December 9 in the over card of the Jimmy V Classic. The Longhorns will bring a Top 25 (Top 10?) squad up North for the contest. This will be Villanova's first game outside of Pennsylvania, and it appears to be the marquee game of the OOC portion of Nova's schedule. Texas notched a 31-7 record last season, running to the Regional Finals before falling to Memphis. Those concerned that Houston Baptist (December 4 in the Pavillion) will be RPI poison can relax. They are a probationary D1 program (1-9 versus D1 opponents last season), so I don't believe the NCAA (or anyone else) is computing an RPI for them. Assuming Villanova takes that game (Pitt opened their 2007-08 season by hammering Houston Baptist 103-61; Marquette will host them in their season opener) and sustains no injuries, the 'Cats should suffer no RPI trauma from this scheduling choice. December's opponents posted a combined 118-91 (.565) record last season.
Big East
For the 4^th consecutive season Villanova opens on the road, this time with a 2 game journey that starts at Marquette and proceeds to Newark, NJ and the Rock for a game against the Seton Hall Pirates. The Wildcats have stumbled out of the (Big East) gate the past 2 seasons. I am looking for a more experienced squad to start stronger this season. Taking one of those two games would seem to be a step in the right direction. Nova then returns to Philadelphia for a two game homestand that features a matchup with Louisville, another Top 10 (projected) team, followed by a game with Villanova's longest standing rival (by number of games played...), the St. John's Red Storm. This scheduling "two step" continues for the balance of January and includes road games with Connecticut and South Florida followed by home games with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. A road record of 3-1 through this stretch would be great, while 2-2 (or 1-3) seem more likely. The January 21 game at Hartford is especially crucial for both Villanova and Connecticut. Villanova has won the last two games in the series, with last season's 2 point home victory especially hard fought. The Huskies are another Top 25 (projected) team, with more than a few in the national media projecting them as a Top 10 team. For Villanova, a second road win in three years would bolster the Wildcat's claims for inclusion among the conference elites. For Connecticut, this is the season when the program turns the corner in the post Williams/Gay Era downturn. As for January's home slate (plus the February 2 game versus Cincinnati), the selection looks a bit more favorable for the Nova squad. Drawing Louisville relatively early for example, may work to Villanova's advantage. The Cardinals are replacing virtually their entire front court (versatile junior Earl Clark excepted) with freshmen, true and redshirted. Most likely Samardo Samuels and Terrence Jennings (and Jarod Swopshire and redshirt freshman George Goode...) will be better in February/March than they will be in early January. A relatively inexperienced Wildcat squad with both Reynolds and Fisher benched to start the game (Fisher eventually got in for 3 minutes while Reynolds logged 26, the smallest amount of PT through the last 10 games of the season) dropped a 14 point decision to a veteran Cardinal squad. Villanova should hold the experience advantage this time around. For Pittsburgh, the front court is solid, but the Panthers have some questions, going into the season, about their back court. By the end of January 2009 (1/28), the Panther faithful should have a pretty good idea how well Woodall, Wanamaker, Gibbs and Brown filled the void left by Benjamin, Ramon and Cook. A very physical Bearcat front court manhandled Villanova's guards last season, handing the 'Cats a 3 point loss at Fifth Third. That front court has moved on, taking savvy point guard Jamual Warren with them. The Wildcats should be motivated when that matchup in the Pavillion opens the February portion of the campaign. The combined 2007-08 record for the opponents in this portion of Villanova's Big East schedule was 156-110 (.586), a better record than the December slate.
The last 10 games of the Big East regular season will follow the home game against Cincinnati. Villanova again has a mix of home and road games, but sequence is less rhythmic than January. Notable road opponents during this stretch of the season include West Virginia (the Colossium is never kind to visitors), Syracuse (the Carrier Dome has been good to the Wildcats...) and Notre Dame (South Bend in the first weekend in March...ouch). The only consecutive road sequence is a trip to the Carrier Dome followed by a run out to Chicago to face the Blue Demons of DePaul. Villanova has faced the Demons early in the season heretofore, giving them a turn with a much feistier squad than usually finishes the season. These home stands, like the road games, offer only one sequence (Syracuse followed by Marquette) of back-to-bask home games. Given the mix of games and the anticipated level of competition, that is about the best that could be offered. The other noted visitor was Georgetown, due into the Wachovia Center (and it's, let's hope, 20,000 rabid citizens of the Nova Nation...) on the last day of February. The combined record for this set of opponents is 198-134 (.598).
Observations & Notes...
1. While Texas may provide early national exposure, the SOS meat is located in the Big East regular season. Note the steady improvement in opponent's 2007-08 records for each month of the season (see table below).

Month	W	L	Pct
November	87	96	0.475
December	118	91	0.565
1/1-2/1 (1st 8)	156	110	0.586
2/4-3/5 (last 10)	198	134	0.596

2. While I have not checked every other Big East member's schedule just yet, I suspect, from those I have reviewed, that fewer teams are opting to schedule non-conference games after New Year's. Given the demands of the conference schedule, it seems a prudent move.
3. Given the opponents and uncertainties of the Wildcat squad right now, 6-2 (or better) is optimistic for the start of the Big East season. But if the squad is healthy through December and January, 4-4 (or worse) would disappoint me. The team is too experienced to lose more than 3 games during January.
4. The four game stretch that concerns me most right now begins with a road game in Providence (February 4), includes two consecutive home games against Marquette and Syracuse (in that order) and concludes with another road game against West Virginia on February 13. This late January/early February period has been a problem for Villanova in past seasons, and going 0-4 through that stretch, given the opponents and playing circumstances though not out of the question, would damage the Wildcat's chances for a post season in the NCAAs.
5. A 6-4 record through the last 10 games might be realistic. Better than that would be great however.

Thoughts on Villanova's 2009 Big East Match-ups

I ran across a simple comparison method used by the bloggers over at Cracked Sidewalks to quickly analyze Marquette's Big East slate for next season (thereby declaring the Warriors had a favorable schedule...). The Big East Report Blog used a similar method which created a conference-wide average for the schedules, and individual "scores" for each team...
1. Divide the Big East into quartiles (1^st -- top, 2^nd -- with 1^st that makes "upper division", 3^rd -- 9 through 12 finishers and 4^th -- 13 through 16 finishers).
2. The quartiles (with your own team in place) will give a hint as to how to triage the conference. There are those teams you won't beat, either at home or on the road (top level); those teams you won't lose to (bottom level -- ha ha, we saw how that worked last season...); those teams which you can most likely beat if you played them at home.
3. Factor the mirror (home-n-away) series games/opponents. The conference generally tries to allocate a top, middle and bottom level opponent to each team. While considering historical rivalries, television revenues and strength of schedule for both top and bottom level teams. In past off seasons the conference coaches were asked about where they thought their teams would place in the conference and where other teams might place.
While a number of very early preseason conference rankings have been published at virtually all of the electronic media sites covering D1 basketball, the consensus appears to be that few (any?) teams will move up or down even a quartile over where they finished, going into next season.

Based on last season's regular season finish, the quartile breakdown looks like this (alpha order within quartile):
First Quartile -- Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame.
Second Quartile -- Marquette, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia.
Third Quartile -- Cincinnati, Providence, Seton Hall, Syracuse.
Fourth Quartile -- DePaul, Rutgers, St. John's, South Florida.

Of course an injury, late hire/fire staff shakeup and academics, etc. can significantly change any team's roster or staff, and that in turn can affect how they perform next season. The latest round (post NBA draft) of preseason &quor;rankings" project between 1 - 3 Big East teams in the Top 10, 4 - 6 in the Top 20 and something like 7 - 9 in the Top 25 to Top 50. It is always the same 7 - 9 teams, and individually each appears to be a contender for a spot in the NCAA field next March.

Villanova's match-ups are:
Home -- Cincinnati, Georgetown, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Rutgers and St. John's.
Away -- Connecticut, DePaul, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, South Florida and West Virginia.
Mirror Series -- Marquette, Providence and Syracuse.

The Triage Philosophy posits that a team wants the games it is virtually certain to win, and those it is certain to lose to be played on the road, thereby applying home court advantage to those games where it may tip the balance.

Applying that theory to the home match-ups suggests the home court advantage may be best applied to 4 of the 6 opponents. Villanova has had home success recently against Georgetown, Louisville and Pittsburgh, while losing on the road to each of them last season. The Georgetown game was evenly matched until (literally) the last second of regulation. Villanova split last season with Pittsburgh (taking the home game, losing on the road) and has held serve against some challenging Cardinal teams over the past 4 seasons. Rutgers and St. John's appear to be misplaced. I suspect most Nova fans would feel confident (no doubt this will bring a snicker or two from Scarlet Knight fans) about beating those teams on the road. Cincinnati beat Villanova in Fifth Third last season, in one of the most physical games the Wildcats played. With another brutally large front court contingent ready to play this season, the Bearcats may be a good team for the Pavilion. So it appears 4 of the 6 games are "advantageously placed".

If certain/virtually certain wins and losses belong on the road, then the news is good, as it appears that 4 of the 6 match-ups fall into that category. Villanova, despite a good deal of fan confidence, has won only 1 of the last 3 Joyce Center meetings (that one on a last possession tip in by Kyle Lowry, during Notre Dame's "unlucky season"). Notre Dame beat Villanova in Philadelphia last season. The Irish lost Rob Kurz from a team that finished 4^th in the conference and won 14 conference games. On paper at this point in the preseason, that looks like a loss to me no matter where it is played. Wins appear to be in the offering at South Florida and Seton Hall, again irrespective of location. That leaves Connecticut, DePaul and West Virginia to resolve. UConn appears to be a consensus #1/#2 finisher in the conference, which I weigh against Villanova's 3-1 record versus the Huskies in the past 3 seasons. While definitely blessed with a very athletic front court, they did not quite know how to use that advantage effectively against the Wildcats. I don't know if the UConn squad has progressed enough to take a game in Philadelphia, though I suspect if the preseason evaluations are true, they could take a Storrs-based (or possibly even a Hartford) game versus the Wildcats. DePaul has struggled with conference opponents in 3 of the 4 seasons they have been members of the Big East. But Villanova has lost twice in the Rosemont Arena over the past 2 seasons. They should win this season, but then I said that last season too. Villanova beat West Virginia in the Pavilion late last season. But historically they have struggled in the Coliseum, even against some mediocre Catlett and Beilein teams. Huggins will field a pretty solid team next season. I'd rather see them in Philadelphia.

Villanova's mirror series will be with Marquette, Providence and Syracuse. Marquette finished in the second quartile last season (5^th seed going into the Big East Tournament), while Syracuse finished tied with Villanova and took 9^th seed in the BET. Providence was the last team "invited" to New York City, finishing with a 12^th seed. The schedule-maker seems to have put aside the top-middle-bottom approach in favor of 3 possibly very even matchups. Another oddity (and I am not sure, should it truly be an advantage...) is that the head coaches at Marquette and Providence are new. Buzz Williams over at Marquette has had, as an Assistant Coach, a single run through the Big East. Let's hope he was taking notes. Williams also has a single season of experience as a head coach (at New Orleans in CUSA). Though on the job less than 2 monthes he has completed his staff and signed several recruits for the class of 2009. MU will bring a senior-led squad to play next season. Taken together, Marquette may not step back far (if at all? -- a number of major web sites list Marquette above Villanova in preseason rankings, often placing Marquett in the Top 15) with the changing of the guard. Providence also brings a senior-heavy squad under the direction of Keno Davis. Davis has a single season of head coaching experience at Drake, and appears to have a position or two still open at Providence. Recruiting has also lagged a bit as Davis has adjusted to the conference and change of scene. The transition may not go as smoothly for the Friars. And the third oddity of the mirror series is Syracuse. The Orange and Wildcats have been "mirror-matched" every season since the Big East expanded. If someone paired me 3 times in a row with someone I would have to think they are match-making. I wonder if there is not some thinking along those lines going on in the conference offices (and maybe at Syracuse and Villanova too?). The record for those three series is 4 - 2 Wildcats. Villanova swept Syracuse in 2005-06, holding serve in 2006-07 and having a somewhat crazy reversal last season. The Wildcats won in the Dome, but dropped the home game. Gaining a sweep with any of those 3 will be very important, though not, on paper, likely if the opponent were truly drawn from the group that will pretty clearly finish in the same quartile (or close to it) as Villanova. Any sweep would be important not only to establish more conference wins and enhance the team's place in the standings, but a sweeep against an opponent most likely to finish in the same quartile would also gain a clear tie-breaker advantage over that team...and work to push the team (downward) out of the quartile.

On the whole I believe these match-ups will work to Villanova's advantage come Big East play.