Looking Ahead by Looking Back
The internet is rife with early looks at the mid and high major conferences the past few weeks. Whether a conference-wide report card or a tightly focused piece, just about every site is running some variation of these middle of the off season reports. Academic reports may still be out, and there is always the what-we-don't-know elements that will no doubt come up in the next 2½ months, but I thought, given the rosters across the Big East have remained stable after the NBA draft rush, this might be a good time to see where each the conference's teams fall in the Pythagorean Winning Percentage/Returning Minutes quadrant. The Pythagorean Winning Percentage was employed as an analytic tool by a number of bloggers in the runnup to the 2010 season with varying degrees of success. The Vegas Watch guys (the previous linked article) kind of winged it after running the numbers, I used a slightly different approach by pulling the Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) as computed by Ken Pomeroy, deriving the conference-wide average for PWP and returning minutes, and mapping the teams into one of four quadrants according to...
The method was a useful, but not perfect predictor for the 2010 season. For the curious, click here to see the chart. [Note -- that chart was current through early August of 2009. After I posted the analysis, Rutgers dismissed Cory Chandler, and removing his 2009 contributions from Rutgers' list of returning minutes remapped the Scarlet Knights into the red quadrant. West Virginia reinstated suspended guards Joe Mazzulla and Truck Bryant before the beginning of Fall Practice. The addition of the two guards' 2009 contributions repositioned West Virginia farther "into the green", reinforcing perceptions that the Mountaineers would be one of the co-favorites to win the conference in 2010.]
Of the three squads which mapped into the "green" quadrant (Above Average PWP, Ret Mins) two, Georgetown and West Virginia, logged better 2010 conference records than 2009, posting a net gain of 6 wins. Villanova, the third "green" team, posted the same record record (13-5) and finished #4 again. One team in the "red" quadrant (Providence) took a giant step back in 2010 (4-14) from their 2009 (10-8) record, while the other -- Rutgers -- netted two more wins and moved up one spot (#15 to #14) in the conference standings, sidestepping a crashing Providence. The quadrants going into the 2011 season:
The conference average for returning minutes is up slightly over last season (58.3% to 62%), as is the PWP (80.9% to 82%); I suspect the the 2011 edition of the Big East will be a bit tougher than the 2010 edition, whether the 2011 Aerials will show a different, more "green or red" quadrant distribution...take with a grain of salt. My "analysis" of last season's chart was laughably off target (apologies in particular to Marquette, Syracuse and Pittsburgh fans) in a number of respects. Since 2009, only Notre Dame has seriously disappointed as a "green" quadrant team. Some went on to very good seasons while others maintained status quo (albeit the top of the conference). Knowing that the Hoyas are faced with the challenge of replacing Greg Monroe, I still believe the 2011 team will improve over their 10-8 2010 record. Everybody in the basketball universe is looking at Pittsburgh and Villanova to square off for the conference title -- heck the conference office matched those two in a mirror series this season, even they believe this will be The Year of the Cat. Of course last season many were predicting a similar two team shootout between Villanova and West Virginia...except for a few fans in upper New York State. Among the "red" quadrant teams, I think if South Florida can log a 9-9 record in 2011 Coach Heath should have a strong bid for Conference Coach of the Year. It has been one very rough off season for Providence. Compounding the losses of Greedy Peterson, dismissed from the team and off to Turkey and the pros, and Assistant Coach Pat Skerry, who joined Jamie Dixon's staff in Pittsburgh (the rich get richer...), was the defection of two well regarded recruits. The last thing a team that is replacing veterans needs is a loss of an impact player (Peterson) and an "air bubble" in the recruiting pipeline. Absent another "falling body" program, next season could be another year in the wilderness for the Friar faithful. Note that the Friars' are returning a higher percentage of minutes next season (even without Greedy), but it is still below the conference average.
The Hand & Bidding -- Play, or Defend?
The other 10 teams map (4-6) into the remaining two quadrants, either "yellow" (low PWP, high minutes) or "blue" (high PWP, low minutes). The opposing characteristics make for an interesting debate -- would you rather your team have veterans who are coming off of a losing season, or have a team that won games last season, but has a lot of new faces (because of departures) this season? The 2010 season did not provide an unambiguous answer. Of the five teams in the "yellow" quadrant (St. John's, South Florida, Cincinnati, DePaul and Seton Hall) going into the 2010 season, three (DePaul, Seton Hall and South Florida) posted, to varying degrees, better records, one (St. John's) was status quo ante and one (Cincinnati) gave back a win. Three of those teams replaced their coaches during or after the season. Of the six "blue" quadrant teams going into 2010, Connecticut and Louisville, faced significant off-the-court distractions and gave back a total of 11 conference wins over their 2009 results. Pittsburgh was status quo ante (13-5 both seasons). Marquette gave back a win, but finished #5 again. And Syracuse, Coach Boeheim having jettisoned a few distractions, netted four wins over their 2009 record, taking the regular season title and a #1 seed in the Dance, in the process.
Looking for Respect
All four of the teams in the yellow quarter of the universe going into the 2011 season are repeaters from last season. Maybe expectations run higher, given the higher-than-average returning minutes. Three of these teams have new coaches, so maybe things can change. Dan Hanner might be closer to the truth than I realized, maybe Cincinnati's Mick Cronin should be nervous. What are realistic expectations for these three new coaches? Looking at Big East history (post 2006 expansion), cautious optimism might be in order, the sample is small, but the example good. Of the seven coaching changes 2006-2009, only Providence in 2009 (Davis' first season) matches the yellow quadrant profile for DePaul, Seton Hall and St. John's in 2010. All three programs (like Providence in 2008) hired a successful veteran coach. Keno Davis coached much the same squad as Tim Welsh the year before (plus a rehabilitated Sharaud Curry) and managed them to a 10-8 record (a net +4 wins over 2008) and an NIT bid in his first season. Of the three, DePaul's Oliver Purnell may have the easiest hurdle to clear -- the Blue Demons won a single conference game in 2010. They were 1-35 in conference play over the past two seasons. While the St. John's squads of the Norm Roberts era tended to have an inverse relationship between winning and returning minutes (when returning minutes were up, wins were down) Red Storm fans have to believe that Coach Lavin, in working to reverse a few other trends, will take care of that trend as well.
On a Roll? Which Way?
If the red and green quadrants are pretty fair predictors for the level of team success in the next season, the yellow and blue quadrants are not. Blue quadrant teams Connecticut, Syracuse, Louisville and Marquette reappear in the blue quadrant, though they had very different conference records. While all return minutes below the conference, Marquette, Connecticut and Syracuse each returns a higher percentage of minutes than they did last season, and if the correlation of returning minutes to wins holds, Coach Williams ought to produce a 2011 improvement over 2010. The same could be said for Coach Calhoun and the Huskies, but though UConn brings back 49.2% of the 2010 minutes, he returns just 38.6% of the points, a nasty scoring gap that mandates the staff retool the offense. The squad's 2010 Shot% was 14.8%, suggesting mostly 3rd option scorers will have to combine with newcomers to man Connecticut's offense. Kemba Walkers' role will (for good or bad) continue to expand, but Storrs provides a good opportunity for a freshman or slightly overlooked rising sophomore (Coombs-McDaniel?) to have an impact this season, especially if they can turn the Huskies' fortunes around. Coach Boeheim does not (last time I looked...) have another Wesley Johnson-level transfer waiting in the wings. 15-3 is a very high bar to match with about 56% of the Orange minutes returning. Both Louisville and Notre Dame managed winning conference records and have lots of minutes to replace. The bad news for both is that their returning minutes are also fewer than those going into the 2010 season. Coach Pitino's program is showing the cumulative effects of transfers (in and out) and early NBA entry. While much was made about Luke Harangody's influence on Notre Dame's offense, returning points is pretty consistent with returning minutes. Unlike Coach Calhoun, Coach Brey will not have to find a dominant set of scorers. What he will have to replace however, is assists, as the Irish return all of 26.5% of last season's assists. Tory Jackson was criticized for lack of point production, but the senior, along with transfer Ben Hansbrough, was ranked in Ken Pomeroy's Top 500 Assist Leaders. And for an offensive system that thrives on passes in and out of the low post and has featured a long line of catch-and-shoot perimeter scorers, replacing a facilitator like Jackson may be as painful as replacing a low post scorer like Harangody. West Virginia faces a returning minutes decline for the first time in the Bob Huggins Era. The returning points (51.1%) are tolerably close to returning minutes (55.0%). Returning rebounds might be a problem, as overall they are below returning minutes (and points), but the squad, noted for scoring on put-back opportunities developed by offensive rebounding, returns about the same percentage of offensive rebounds (51.7%) as points (51.1%).
Many thanks to Ken Pomeroy for his web site and the wealth of data it provides.
The internet is rife with early looks at the mid and high major conferences the past few weeks. Whether a conference-wide report card or a tightly focused piece, just about every site is running some variation of these middle of the off season reports. Academic reports may still be out, and there is always the what-we-don't-know elements that will no doubt come up in the next 2½ months, but I thought, given the rosters across the Big East have remained stable after the NBA draft rush, this might be a good time to see where each the conference's teams fall in the Pythagorean Winning Percentage/Returning Minutes quadrant. The Pythagorean Winning Percentage was employed as an analytic tool by a number of bloggers in the runnup to the 2010 season with varying degrees of success. The Vegas Watch guys (the previous linked article) kind of winged it after running the numbers, I used a slightly different approach by pulling the Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) as computed by Ken Pomeroy, deriving the conference-wide average for PWP and returning minutes, and mapping the teams into one of four quadrants according to...
| Pythagorean Winning Percentage: Below Average Returning Minutes: Above Average | Pythagorean Winning Percentage: Above Average Returning Minutes: Above Average |
| Pythagorean Winning Percentage: Below Average Returning Minutes: Below Average | Pythagorean Winning Percentage: Above Average Returning Minutes: Below Average |
The method was a useful, but not perfect predictor for the 2010 season. For the curious, click here to see the chart. [Note -- that chart was current through early August of 2009. After I posted the analysis, Rutgers dismissed Cory Chandler, and removing his 2009 contributions from Rutgers' list of returning minutes remapped the Scarlet Knights into the red quadrant. West Virginia reinstated suspended guards Joe Mazzulla and Truck Bryant before the beginning of Fall Practice. The addition of the two guards' 2009 contributions repositioned West Virginia farther "into the green", reinforcing perceptions that the Mountaineers would be one of the co-favorites to win the conference in 2010.]
Of the three squads which mapped into the "green" quadrant (Above Average PWP, Ret Mins) two, Georgetown and West Virginia, logged better 2010 conference records than 2009, posting a net gain of 6 wins. Villanova, the third "green" team, posted the same record record (13-5) and finished #4 again. One team in the "red" quadrant (Providence) took a giant step back in 2010 (4-14) from their 2009 (10-8) record, while the other -- Rutgers -- netted two more wins and moved up one spot (#15 to #14) in the conference standings, sidestepping a crashing Providence. The quadrants going into the 2011 season:
The conference average for returning minutes is up slightly over last season (58.3% to 62%), as is the PWP (80.9% to 82%); I suspect the the 2011 edition of the Big East will be a bit tougher than the 2010 edition, whether the 2011 Aerials will show a different, more "green or red" quadrant distribution...take with a grain of salt. My "analysis" of last season's chart was laughably off target (apologies in particular to Marquette, Syracuse and Pittsburgh fans) in a number of respects. Since 2009, only Notre Dame has seriously disappointed as a "green" quadrant team. Some went on to very good seasons while others maintained status quo (albeit the top of the conference). Knowing that the Hoyas are faced with the challenge of replacing Greg Monroe, I still believe the 2011 team will improve over their 10-8 2010 record. Everybody in the basketball universe is looking at Pittsburgh and Villanova to square off for the conference title -- heck the conference office matched those two in a mirror series this season, even they believe this will be The Year of the Cat. Of course last season many were predicting a similar two team shootout between Villanova and West Virginia...except for a few fans in upper New York State. Among the "red" quadrant teams, I think if South Florida can log a 9-9 record in 2011 Coach Heath should have a strong bid for Conference Coach of the Year. It has been one very rough off season for Providence. Compounding the losses of Greedy Peterson, dismissed from the team and off to Turkey and the pros, and Assistant Coach Pat Skerry, who joined Jamie Dixon's staff in Pittsburgh (the rich get richer...), was the defection of two well regarded recruits. The last thing a team that is replacing veterans needs is a loss of an impact player (Peterson) and an "air bubble" in the recruiting pipeline. Absent another "falling body" program, next season could be another year in the wilderness for the Friar faithful. Note that the Friars' are returning a higher percentage of minutes next season (even without Greedy), but it is still below the conference average.
The Hand & Bidding -- Play, or Defend?
The other 10 teams map (4-6) into the remaining two quadrants, either "yellow" (low PWP, high minutes) or "blue" (high PWP, low minutes). The opposing characteristics make for an interesting debate -- would you rather your team have veterans who are coming off of a losing season, or have a team that won games last season, but has a lot of new faces (because of departures) this season? The 2010 season did not provide an unambiguous answer. Of the five teams in the "yellow" quadrant (St. John's, South Florida, Cincinnati, DePaul and Seton Hall) going into the 2010 season, three (DePaul, Seton Hall and South Florida) posted, to varying degrees, better records, one (St. John's) was status quo ante and one (Cincinnati) gave back a win. Three of those teams replaced their coaches during or after the season. Of the six "blue" quadrant teams going into 2010, Connecticut and Louisville, faced significant off-the-court distractions and gave back a total of 11 conference wins over their 2009 results. Pittsburgh was status quo ante (13-5 both seasons). Marquette gave back a win, but finished #5 again. And Syracuse, Coach Boeheim having jettisoned a few distractions, netted four wins over their 2009 record, taking the regular season title and a #1 seed in the Dance, in the process.
Looking for Respect
All four of the teams in the yellow quarter of the universe going into the 2011 season are repeaters from last season. Maybe expectations run higher, given the higher-than-average returning minutes. Three of these teams have new coaches, so maybe things can change. Dan Hanner might be closer to the truth than I realized, maybe Cincinnati's Mick Cronin should be nervous. What are realistic expectations for these three new coaches? Looking at Big East history (post 2006 expansion), cautious optimism might be in order, the sample is small, but the example good. Of the seven coaching changes 2006-2009, only Providence in 2009 (Davis' first season) matches the yellow quadrant profile for DePaul, Seton Hall and St. John's in 2010. All three programs (like Providence in 2008) hired a successful veteran coach. Keno Davis coached much the same squad as Tim Welsh the year before (plus a rehabilitated Sharaud Curry) and managed them to a 10-8 record (a net +4 wins over 2008) and an NIT bid in his first season. Of the three, DePaul's Oliver Purnell may have the easiest hurdle to clear -- the Blue Demons won a single conference game in 2010. They were 1-35 in conference play over the past two seasons. While the St. John's squads of the Norm Roberts era tended to have an inverse relationship between winning and returning minutes (when returning minutes were up, wins were down) Red Storm fans have to believe that Coach Lavin, in working to reverse a few other trends, will take care of that trend as well.
On a Roll? Which Way?
If the red and green quadrants are pretty fair predictors for the level of team success in the next season, the yellow and blue quadrants are not. Blue quadrant teams Connecticut, Syracuse, Louisville and Marquette reappear in the blue quadrant, though they had very different conference records. While all return minutes below the conference, Marquette, Connecticut and Syracuse each returns a higher percentage of minutes than they did last season, and if the correlation of returning minutes to wins holds, Coach Williams ought to produce a 2011 improvement over 2010. The same could be said for Coach Calhoun and the Huskies, but though UConn brings back 49.2% of the 2010 minutes, he returns just 38.6% of the points, a nasty scoring gap that mandates the staff retool the offense. The squad's 2010 Shot% was 14.8%, suggesting mostly 3rd option scorers will have to combine with newcomers to man Connecticut's offense. Kemba Walkers' role will (for good or bad) continue to expand, but Storrs provides a good opportunity for a freshman or slightly overlooked rising sophomore (Coombs-McDaniel?) to have an impact this season, especially if they can turn the Huskies' fortunes around. Coach Boeheim does not (last time I looked...) have another Wesley Johnson-level transfer waiting in the wings. 15-3 is a very high bar to match with about 56% of the Orange minutes returning. Both Louisville and Notre Dame managed winning conference records and have lots of minutes to replace. The bad news for both is that their returning minutes are also fewer than those going into the 2010 season. Coach Pitino's program is showing the cumulative effects of transfers (in and out) and early NBA entry. While much was made about Luke Harangody's influence on Notre Dame's offense, returning points is pretty consistent with returning minutes. Unlike Coach Calhoun, Coach Brey will not have to find a dominant set of scorers. What he will have to replace however, is assists, as the Irish return all of 26.5% of last season's assists. Tory Jackson was criticized for lack of point production, but the senior, along with transfer Ben Hansbrough, was ranked in Ken Pomeroy's Top 500 Assist Leaders. And for an offensive system that thrives on passes in and out of the low post and has featured a long line of catch-and-shoot perimeter scorers, replacing a facilitator like Jackson may be as painful as replacing a low post scorer like Harangody. West Virginia faces a returning minutes decline for the first time in the Bob Huggins Era. The returning points (51.1%) are tolerably close to returning minutes (55.0%). Returning rebounds might be a problem, as overall they are below returning minutes (and points), but the squad, noted for scoring on put-back opportunities developed by offensive rebounding, returns about the same percentage of offensive rebounds (51.7%) as points (51.1%).
Many thanks to Ken Pomeroy for his web site and the wealth of data it provides.
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