Sunday, July 25, 2010

U17 FIBA Player Efficiencies

What We Learned
Eight games is not enough to draw conclusions about the U17 players. They won't tell me how (or if?) they will play in college or whether/how high a level they can play after college, but a box score is a box score, and eight of them, when compiled as a series, can provide us with a narrative about the tournament and the teams involved. And that in turn, ought to tell us one or two things about the players who make up the team, and how they playded those games. I have compiled the possession-based stats for the USA U17 team, and divided the tables into "scoring" stats (time, possession percentage, shot percentage, shot efficiency, scoring efficiency and getting to the line) and "defense/team" stats (assist rate, turnover rate, rebounding -- offensive rate and defensive rate -- steal rate and blocking rate). There are links in the Possession-based sidebar for those who are curious about the details and what lies behind the numbers. Players who have given verbal commitments to a D1 college are highlighted in orange.

J Anderson17.518.920.975.01.498.3
B Beal64.924.422.867.51.3721.6
Q Cook53.
A Drummond31.826.424.963.51.2219.2
M Gilchrist48.725.
J McAdoo53.723.623.064.21.2924.7
J O'Bryant35.019.414.430.30.8354.5
T Parker14.423.123.459.11.2331.8
C Randle32.517.318.868.81.375.0
M Teague48.726.517.535.70.8442.9
A Thomas49.026.523.341.30.8613.3
T Wroten50.924.517.744.90.9835.6

Among the trio of players who formed the first scoring option, the most efficient was Florida-bound Brad Beal a 6-2 sg out of Chaminade College Prep H.S. in St. Louis. The guard played just over 50% of the minutes available in Coach Showalter system, but managed to log double-digit outings in each game, the most consistent scorer on the USA squad. Beal scored 25 points in 20 minutes against Australia in Team USA's quarter-final game, but his 20 points in 22 minutes against China, followed the very next day with 18 points in 17 minutes versus Egypt should have raised a few eyebrows. His perimeter shooting in particular was devastating to opponents, as he hit on 47.7% of his three point attempts, while taking 67.7% of his field goal attempts from beyond the arc. Three point accuracy was a problem for the Gators last season (31.3% accuracy), I am sure Florida Coach Billy Donovan can't get Beal on campus soon enough.

USA Coach Don Showalter did not start Michael Gilchrist, nor did he give the sf out of St. Patrick's in New Jersey even play 50% of the time, but when the 6-7 wing dominated the opposition he did it in a very big way. Gilchrist scored 16 points in 18 minutes of play against Argentina, also notching a double-double, the first of two he would earn in the tournament. Gilchrist also scored 18 points in 16 minutes versus the Egyptians, and 30 points in 25 minutes (on his way to his second double-double of the tournament) against the Canadians. The wing's shot efficiency (eFG% and PPWS) was sensational (though a bit inconsistent game-to-game), but his 70% FTA/FGA is probably the most noteworthy of his scoring stats. He was at the line with almost every FGA, which suggests he did not mind going into the lane when he had to score. He will really have fun in Coach Calipari's DDM system.

James McAdoo, the 6-8 UNC-bound forward, formed the third efficient scoring prong in the USA arsenal. McAdoo converting mostly on two point field goal attempts, posted a 64.2% eFG% to go with a 1.29 PPWS. Among the rotation players, Andre Drummond and Tony Parker, both low post players tended to assume central scoring roles when they checked into games. Both efficiently converted scoring opportunities into points, assuring the team had little drop off from the starting front court players. Quinn Cook, Chasson Randle and Justin Anderson took secondary scoring roles, but converted at times even more efficiently than the first options.

J Anderson4.712.58.315.76.64.7
B Beal9.515.
Q Cook37.525.
A Drummond5.414.720.127.511.81.3
M Gilchrist11.512.411.421.93.02.8
J McAdoo3.
J O'Bryant2.814.211.718.01.72.8
T Parker2.
C Randle4.
M Teague33.420.
A Thomas6.615.910.
T Wroten23.

Among those who had to be disappointed with their inability to score, Kentucky-bound guard Marquis Teague, out of Indianapolis, Indiana had numbers that stood out. The staff, however, continued to start the 6-2 guard despite his 37.5% eFG%, because Teague used his speed to draw contact and get to the line, or draw the defenders. Working as a counterpart to Quinn Cook, Team USA's starting point guard, Teague contributed a high assist rate (33.4), many no doubt from kick-outs to patiently waiting wings like Brad Beal and Justin Anderson, who converted from long distance with great efficiency. Team USA compiled the stronges offensive rebounding numbers in the tournament field, and were third behind Canada and Germany in defensive rebounding. Drummond and Parker were dominant on both boards when they drew minutes, while in that part of the rotation that drew more minutes, Gilchrist and McAdoo stood out, at both ends of the floor. Adonis Thomas was unusual in that he appeared to be more effective on the offensive rather than the defensive, glass.

Where They are Going
In an birthday quirk, only four members of the 12 man USA squad have committed to schools as members of the 2011 (high school) class. This not a recruiting blog, and I am not offering up to the minute information about schools and players, but the table below is my best understanding as of late July (2010). Players who verballed are again highlighted in orange.

HS ClassVerbal/Interest
Justin Anderson2012Duke, UNC, Texas, MD, etc.
Brad Beal2011Florida
Quinn Cook2011UK, KU, UCLA, Duke, etc.
Andre Drummond2012PC, UConn, WVU, Florida, etc.
Michael Gilchrist2011Kentucky
James McAdoo2011North Carolina
Johnny O'Bryant2011Kansas, Arkansas & others
Tony Parker2012TBD
Chasson Randle2011Illinois, Purdue, KU, Stanford, etc.
Marquis Teague2011Kentucky
Adonis Thomas2011Arkansas, Florida, etc.
Tony Wroten2011Kentucky, Washington

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