Wednesday, September 3, 2008

2008-09 Villanova's Returning PPWS

It occured to me that I should post PPWS numbers for the entire Wildcat squad, but circumstances intruded, so I decided to post separately. PPWS, eFG% and Min% calculations for the Wildcat squad (Big East games only) are below...

Dante Cunningham1.1956.674.862.840.7
Dwayne Anderson1.1153.758.031.620.0
Scottie Reynolds1.1049.277.643.734.2
Corey Stokes1.0650.446.916.513.9
Antonio Pena1.0446.259.843.633.3
Casiem Drummond0.9844.813.548.331.0
Shane Clark0.9035.939.731.331.3
Reggie Redding0.8938.345.545.331.3
Corey Fisher0.8639.356.123.217.1
Frank Tchuisi0.200.00.850.025.0
Jason Colenda0.

The column headings are the same for the Top 25 PPWS post (below). I have reproduced here both Cunningham and Anderson, the two Nova players who made the Top 25 list. Fans know that both players, while scoring points in different ways (Cunningham on the inside, Anderson a bit more mixed in his shot selection), were efficient in some measure because they served as 3rd & 4th options on offense. Given both are seniors this year, I expect that despite the fact that the numbers suggest both can be efficient scorers, they will not see growth in their respective roles offensively.

Scottie Reynolds just missed the Top 25 ranking. Given that both he and freshman Corey Stokes were more active in the offense (than Cunningham and Anderson for example), the relative high PPWS numbers are encouraging. Reynolds posted a PPWS of 1.16 in Big East games in 2006-07 when he was not recognized as a go-to guy in the Wildcat's offense (until later in the season). Corey Stoke's growing efficiency will help Reynolds (and other elements of the offense) this coming season. I expect to see a better start from Stokes in 2008-09.

Corey Fisher's accuracy was about the same for 2s (0.333) and 3s (0.323). Having a freshman shoot 3s in the low 30% is typical; his 2FGM% is most likely a consequence of his tendency to try to get to the hoop rather than pull up and shoot a mid range jumper when his penetration was contested. Both will have to improve this next season if Fisher wants to see his role continue to expand. Shane Clark's matching 31.3 for both FTR% and FTM% is not a typo. Clark went 20 for 20 at the line in Big East regular games (hence the two stats are identical). Craig Austrie of Connecticut is listed as the free throw leader (2.5 per game minimum) with an FT% of 0.907 on 49 of 54 shooting. I could not find a record on consecutive made free throws, conference games only. Cunningham and Drummond's PPWS suffers from their free throw shooting (compare their respective FTR%s and FTM%s). Dante gets to the line about 6 times for every 10 FGs he attempts. For Drum the ratio is just about 1 for every 2 FGAs. Both see the line enough to impact Were Cunningham to add 10% (or more...) to his FTM he would, aside from having sunk 8 more FTAs, improved his PPWS by about .06 more points (his PPWS would have been about 1.25, ranking him about 3rd), not to mention the extra point(s) might have had a modest affect on the second Georgetown game or the Cincinnati game. Drum's and Clark's very modest Min% stats reflect the injuries both had coming out of the OOC part of the schedule.

4 comments: said...

As usual... great stuff and analytical insight.

deal said...

The full Villanova schedule has been posted. They have 5 games at the Wachovia center which I think makes them ineligible to play there if they make the NCAA tournament.

deal said...

ok I take back part of my last comment. There are only 3 games at the Center. two are at the spectrum. This probabl will allow them to play first round games at the Wachovia Center, should they get into the tournament.

greyCat said...

I think taking two of the games at the Spectrum was a premeditated attempt to avoid having the Wachovia Center classified as a home court Deal. Earning a seed high enough to be in line for a "favorable" first round site (they would probably have to be a #1, #2, #3 or #4...) is certainly a long shot at this point, but who knows? It would be a shame to have that type of season and then have to go to another location because of this oversight. It shows this staff thinks ahead and keeps track of the details. I like that.