Villanova by the Numbers

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani -- At the Holiday Festival

2011-12-22T13:59:00.000-05:00

by Ray Floriani

New York City - The format of the MSG Holiday Festival went through another alteration. Up until a few years ago it was contested just after Christmas. Since then it has been before December 25th and this season was not a true tournament. No semifinal and final doubleheader -- just a twin bill -- this past Saturday at Madison Square Garden.

The Holiday Festival logo

The scores:

Rutgers	67		58	Stony Brook
St. John's	56		50	Fordham

Possession and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Stony Brook	66	88
Rutgers	63	106

View of MSG

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Fordham	68	73
St. John's	68	83

Notes & Points of Emphasis
1. Rutgers was tested.
The American East representatives, Stony Brook worked hard on the offensive glass showing a 46-32% edge in offensive rebounding percentage. Rutgers coach Mike Rice pointed out , partially in jest, that his Scarlet Knights (6-5) had too much holiday spirit and were willing to give up second chances to the Seawolves. Stony Brook did not have an easy time finishing those opportunities showing only a 13-9 lead in second chance points. Stony Brook (3-6) basically lived on the perimeter and shot better from three (7 of 24 for 29%) than from two (9 of 36 and 25%). Rutgers shot 56% from two en route to a 54% eFG mark. Both teams had identical and sloppy 24% TO rates. Myles Mack of Rutgers led all scorers with 22 points. The freshman guard did not start but proved the old axiom 'it is more important who finishes rather than starts the game'. Mack used 18% of the Scarlet Knight possessions and obviously was very much involved.

Rutgers coach Mike Rice feels his team was in a holiday mode
giving too many offensive rebounding 'gifts'

2. Fordham is improved
They entered MSG at 4-5. Tom Pecora is getting double figure scoring from three players, none are seniors. Junior Chris Gaston leads at 14.6 PPG while the backcourt of sophomore Branden Frazier (10.0) and freshman Devon McMillan (11.6) has been effective.

Against St. John's there were opportunities. Gaston got inside but struggled to finish. He scored 11 points, grabbed 14 rebounds (5 offensive) but was 4 of 16 from the field. Both clubs failed to hit 40% eFG with Fordham at 36% and St. John's not much better with 38%. The young Ram backcourt did a nice job caring for the ball with a 15% TO rate, compared to St. John's' 22%. Red Storm got the big and arguable game decisive advantage on the offensive glass. They showed a 42-24% dominance in offensive rebounding percentage. God's Gift Achiuwa (5) and Moe Harkness (3) accounted for half of the 16 St. John's offensive boards. Harkness, a 6-8 freshman swing man, had a nice 13 point, 16 rebound double-double.

3. St. John's has concerns
The Red Storm is now 5-5. Beyond the .500 won-lost record are other issues. The exit of Nurideen Lindsey further depletes an already thin squad. In the first half against Fordham the starters went the entire way. For the game, four players put in the full forty minutes. The only one who did not was freshman guard Sir Dominic Pointer who put in 36 minutes and spelled by Malik Stith for only 4 minutes. The biggest concerns in this situation are foul trouble -- the Storm do zone frequently to stay out of that situation -- and injuries. They can ill afford an injury to anyone. With Big East play and its physical nature, practices, plus Winter and the illnesses it can bring coming up, St. John's will be embarking on conference play in a very tenuous circumstance.

The Stony Brook band entertained
and enjoyed their MSG appearance

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Analysis of the Maggie Dixon Classic

2011-12-15T18:28:00.001-05:00

by Ray Floriani

New York City – The annual Maggie Dixon Classic gave us two interesting games. The 5,486 in attendance saw St. John’s put up a good battle before falling to number one Baylor in a game closer than the score hints. In game two, Tennessee, despite coming in with two losses, proved they can defend and are still an elite program, not to go away any time soon.

At halftime a travel team from Oakland, NJ got to play on the Garden floor.
Yours truly officiated them in a tournament a week earlier.

Baylor

St. John's

The possessions and offensive efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Baylor	65	112
St. John's	63	94

Of the Four Factors, two key areas saw the Bears excel. FT rate and offensive rebounding percentage. Baylor enjoyed 22-6% advantage in free throw rate (FTM/FGA) by virtue of hitting 14 free throws to St. John’s’ four. Red Storm, though, had only four attempts to Baylor’s 20. In the offensive rebounding department the advantage was a 43-31% difference in Baylor’s favor. Britney Griner, Baylor’s outstanding 6-8 junior center, had a game leading 13 rebounds. Three were offensive as Brooklyn Pope did the most damage for the Bears with five offensive rebounds.

St. John's coach Kim Barnes Arico
makes a point

Second game score, possessions and efficiency:

Tennessee

De Paul

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Tennessee	83	101
De Paul	81	75

Tennessee assistant Holly Warwick and Glory Johnson

Possession total shows us it was a bit of a faster pace. Very glaring number among those Four Factors, DePaul’s 30% turnover rate. Blue Demons had 24 turnovers and the 30% means almost one third of their offense resulted in the TO. Tennessee did have 19 of their own for a high 23% TO rate, a figure they will undoubtedly address in preparation for their next opponent.

A Look at Possessions and Usage
From Golden State of mind site there was a nice piece on advanced statistical breakdowns you can use analyzing the NBA. Actually, the metrics are applicable for the college game as well.

To calculate individual possessions you employ this formula:

Poss = FGA + (FTA * .475) + TO

The NBA free throw multiplier is .44, on the college level the accepted is .475. Once you have possessions of an individual player you divide that figure by team possessions. The final total is multiplied by 100 for the Usage percentage rate.

We will now take a look at the possessions and usage of the leading scorer for each team in the two games.

Player, Team	Poss	Pts.	Usage
B. Pope, Baylor	19	19	29
E. McPherson, SJU	15	23	24
J. Penny, De Paul	11	16	14
G. Johnson, Tenn	18	16	22

Taking it further let us look at the Baylor distribution. After all, they are the nation’s top ranked team:

Player	Poss	Pts.	Usage
B. Pope	19	19	29
B. Griner	14	17	17
O. Sims	14	8	17
K. Hayden	11	12	13
J. Madden	18	11	22
D. Williams	4	4	5
M. Robertson	0	0	0
S. Agbuke	1	2	1

The usage totals 98% because many of the usage figures contained percentage points, under .5, which I did not round up. St. John’s coach Kim Barnes Arico targeted Griner and point guard Sims for added defensive attention. She knew Pope and Madden would get additional and/or open looks but was willing to take the chance. The usage points out the impact the latter two had on the Baylor attack and outcome.

Griner entered the game with a 21% usage while Sims was right behind at 20%.
The team records:

Baylor	10-0
St. John's	5-5
Tennessee	8-2
De Paul	8-2

Baylor's Britney Griner graciously signs autographs

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani -- The Jimmy V Classic

2011-12-08T13:15:00.000-05:00

by Ray Floriani

New York City – The annual Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden gave us two interesting games. In the opener, Missouri had a little too much of everything in defeating Villanova 81-71.

Pre-game national anthem

The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Villanova	69	103
Missouri	69	117

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Villanova	51	17	36	22
Missouri	50	23	36	12

Jay Wright makes a point

Villanova coach Jay Wright watched all seven of Missouri’s previous games on tape. What he saw was a well coached, veteran team that defends and simply was a challenging task for his young Wildcats. “We were hoping to grind it out, keep it close near the end and possibly steal one,” Wright said.

Villanova trailed by double digits most of the second half but did close late to get it to a one possession game. Each time Villanova was unable to get any closer. The culprit was turnovers, untimely turnovers.

The Wildcats entered the game with a commendable 19% TO rate. Missouri, which exerts pressure in a half court setting forced Villanova into a 22% rate. That proved significant as Villanova shot well, got to the line and hit the boards hard. Transition points were crucial also as the Big Twelve representatives owned a 24-8 edge in fast break points.

Wildcats placed five players in double figures. Their points and Manley totals are as follows:

		Manley
	Pts	Eff.
Maalik Wayns	14	13
Darrun Hilliard	13	8
Dom Cheek	12	14
Mouphtaou Yarou	11	14
JayVaughn Pinkston	10	12

• Maalik Wayns canned three treys in the stretch. He added 9 assists but did commit five turnovers. Yarou is a nice player inside but needs help. Pinkston did some fine work in the lane. He is still coming around as Wright noted “he (Pinkston) is rusty.” The Villanova mentor noted Pinkston not only sat out suspended last year but worked nine hours a day and was able to get little gym time for himself. Hilliard is a freshman with a nice shooting stroke. Cheek does a good job in the open floor.

• Marcus Denmon led all scorers with 28 points. The Missouri guard was 6 of 10 from the floor. Kim English added 15 while Ricardo Ratliffe scored 17 points while grabbing 11 boards. Ratliffe proved it’s quality not quantity. He is Missouri’s only legitimate big man but the 6-8 senior forward is very effective.

• Learning experience. Wright and several of his Villanova players echoed that sentiment following the game. “we’ll learn from this,” Cheek said. “We’ll watch the tape, get back to practice and just get better.”

View of court from
upper press box

• Spent the first half recording possessions longhand. Came up with 34 per team, the same as the formula yielded off the box score. Missouri led 42-29 at the break with a noticeable 125-85 advantage in offensive efficiency.

• Missouri is 8-0. Villanova is now 5-3 with a Saturday game at Temple next on tap.

Marquette vs. Washington
The night cap of the V saw Marquette edge Washington 79-77 in a game settled on the last possession. The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Marquette	74	107
Washington	71	109

One of those rare occurrences, Washington won the efficiency battle but not the won-lost ‘war’. Huskies had a 46-28% lead in offensive rebounding percentage. Interestingly, Marquette had the edge 31-7% in free throw rate. Usually teams ‘owning’ the glass get to the line more.

A reason Marquette visited the line (27 to 10 in free throw attempts) more was their ability to attack the basket. They led 10-0 in fast break points and penetrated well.

The scoreboard tells the story of game two

Marquette coach Buzz Williams is a tempo free advocate who discussed Washington’s efficiency in the post game press conference. Williams is a stickler in preaching the value and numerical meaning of a possession to his players. Little surprise that Marquette had an outstanding 14% TO rate, as opposed to the 23% of the Huskies.

Jae Crowder (18 points) hit one three all night. It was the deciding basket for Marquette as a Washington attempt pon the next possession missed at the buzzer.

The leading scorers and Manley numbers:

		Manley
	Pts	Eff.
Darius Johnson-Odom (MU)	23	17
Terrence Ross (WU)	19	24

• Marquette’s Jae Crowder had a Manley Efficiency of 17 along with his 18 points.

• Chris Otule of Marqueete went out with a knee injury after the first two minutes. The 6-11 junior averages just over 5 p[oints per game but Williams felt his loss was significant in Marquette’s defending Washington’s ball screens.

• Marquette is 8-0, Washington is now 4-3.

• Huskies are spending a few more days in New York. They will take in a movie, two plays then on Saturday face Duke back at Madison Square Garden.

Villanova was the only schol to bring cheerleaders.
Here Ray is enjoying the company

Penn Post Game -- Closing Out

2011-12-05T03:35:00.001-05:00

They Were on Fire, and Then...
There were times in the first half when it appeared, Big 5 game/rivalry or not, Villanova was going to sweep Penn right out of the Pavilion. The 'Cats opened with a 12-4 run in the game's first five minutes on their way to a 73-65 win over their Big 5 rival. The score understated the Wildcats' domination...

	Score	Poss	PPP	eFG%	TO%
Penn	4	8	0.50	33.3	25.0
Villanova	12	8	1.50	75.0	0.0

The teams were on track for a 32 possession half and a 64 possession game...with a score of 96-32 Villanova. Numbers too good to be sustained...and the skeptics were not disappointed. Not before Villanova doubled the score on Penn, 32-16 near the 3:00 mark of the first half. The Wildcats took a solid 18 point lead, 38-20, into the intermission.

"I thought it was important (with Maalik Wayns out with two first half fouls) that we did not let him (Penn point guard Zack Rosen) get started..." Coach Wright asserted in the post game press conference, "...because once he gets going, it's really tough to stop him..." This served as the explanation for Penn's point guard Zack Rosen's second half explosion. Going into the half with six points on 2-4 (0-1, 2-3) from the floor and 2-2 from the line, Penn's preseason favorite to take Player of the Year honors in the Big 5 used the time to gather himself, and returned to the floor to record 17 more points as he engineered the Quakers' second half rush to close the gap. Though they fell short, Penn whittled a deficit that bulged to 18 early in the half down to four with 0:15 left to play. Rosen's three pointer (one of seven they managed to convert after shooting 0-7 in the first half) brought the Quakers to 65-69, but they could get no closer as the young Wildcats hit their free throws to push the margin back out to eight.

With Maalik Wayns on the bench
Zack Rosen schools Achraf Yacoubou (24) in first half action

The bloggers over at VUHoops.com focus on Villanova's nine game winning streak over Penn and how the squad converted at the line to bring home the win in their piece, "9 Straight for Cats Over Quakers". The Nova Blog noted Penn's second half rally in "Villanova Holds Off Penn's..." and how the Wildcats preserved the win. The University site posted the AP wire story and the official boxscore. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	Penn
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	33.1	33.4	66.5
	Offense			Defense
	1st	2nd	Game	1st	2nd	Game
Rating	114.8	104.8	109.8	60.4	134.8	97.8
eFG%	62.1	28.8	46.4	29.2	66.1	50.0
TORate	21.2	12.0	16.5	24.2	12.0	18.1
OR%	33.3	35.0	34.3	16.7	33.3	24.2
FTA/FGA	17.2	92.3	52.7	33.3	16.1	23.6
FTM/FGA	6.9	76.9	40.0	25.0	12.9	18.2
ARate	60.0	71.4	63.6	14.3	58.8	45.8
Blk%	10.3	3.8	7.3	4.2	6.5	5.5
Stl%	9.0	8.7	8.9	9.1	3.1	6.1
PPWS	1.21	0.94	1.06	0.72	1.35	1.06
2FG%	47.4	46.2	46.9	46.7	55.6	51.5
3FG%	60.0	7.7	30.4	0.0	53.8	31.8
FT%	40.0	83.3	75.9	75.0	80.0	76.9
%2FG	47.4	34.3	41.1	70.0	44.4	52.3
%3FG	47.4	8.6	28.8	0.0	46.7	32.3
%FT	5.3	57.1	30.1	30.0	8.9	15.4

Half Time Adjustments
The pace was dictated by Villanova and remained consistent through both halves. Penn's marked, half-over-half improvement on offense (or Villanova's defensive lapse if you wish) was graphic and led by the turnaround on their outside shooting. The Wildcats kept their points per possession rate north of one (1.048 PPP) on the strength of their offensive rebounding, dramatic drop in turnovers and the large number of times they got to the line. From Zack Rosen's post game comments, "...I don't know where our confidence was...we want to go out and play with anybody, no matter who it is...and do what we do. I think in the second half we did what we did..." Indeed, the Quakers hit 7-13 from beyond the arc, One of the minor surprises is how Penn, which racked up a staggering 27 personal fouls managed to keep their entire rotation eligible for play. Three Quakers, Rosen, forward Henry Brooks and forward/center Cameron Gunter picked up four fouls apiece while four others had three fouls apiece. Five of Penn's 18 rostered players are 6-8 and taller. They struggled to block out Mouphtao Yarou, sending the junior forward to the line for 12 free throw attempts.

Notes & Observations
1. About Villanova's defense -- "We gotta learn we have to play 40 minutes...it's hard (to maintain defensive intensity), but good teams do that...when you're young...when you get a lead...the place you rest is on defense. When you're a veteran...and you're going to rest, you do it on offense" -- Coach Jay Wright

2. Maalik Wayns picked up his second foul with nine minutes left in the first half and sat for the balance of the period. He took no shots in the first half, dished two dimes, racked up a steal and committed two turnovers before retiring to the bench. Urged at the half to shoot more, the junior's line at the finish was 11 points on 2-4 (1-2 from beyond the arc, 1-2 inside) shooting from the field and 6-6 at the line.

Maalik Wayns' three pointer in the second half
helped staunch a Quaker comeback

3. With Wayns on the bench and Rosen on the loose, the staff with limited options turned to freshmen Ty Johnson and Achraf Yacoubou to pick up Wayns' minutes and they did not disappoint. Johnson logged 15 minutes as he manned the point, recording six points while providing three assists to two turnovers. The freshman grabbed a rebound and was credited with a steal. Yacoubou was a bit less productive offensively, but he did dish two dimes while committing one turnover in an 18 minute stint.

4. Yarou racked up a double-double, 21 points and 11 rebounds in 33 minutes of action. The Quakers did not have a player, or combination of players who could contain Yarou.

Ty Johnson directs the Wildcats late in the first half

5. With the win, the latest in a streak of nine (as reported by VUHoops.com), Villanova now holds a 39-14 edge over Penn in their Big 5 series. This is the least competitive of the head-to-head series within the Big 5.

Penn's Coach Jerome Allen directs the Quakers
from the sidelines

Roster Moves
The staff used an eight man rotation against Penn, the shallowest this season, as junior forward/center Maurice Sutton dislocated his right thumb in practice this week. He is expected to miss between two and three weeks. Do not look for him before the Big East season. Freshman forward Markus Kennedy collided with JayVaughn Pinkston in practice and sustained a shoulder injury. Coach Wright hopes he will be ready Tuesday for the Missouri game in Madison Square Garden.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani -- Siena at St. Peter's

2011-12-05T00:03:00.001-05:00

by Ray Floriani

Jersey City, NJ- The MAAC opener for both Siena and St. Peter's was played Thursday night at St. Peter's in Jersey City. While it is still early, the conference teams play two games prior to the new year. Getting off to a good start in league play is vital.

St. Peter's took advantage of home court and some outstanding defense posting a 51-44 victory. The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
St. Peter's	54	94
Siena	54	82

Basic grind it out style of play as noted by the extremely low count of 54 turnovers. The key for St. Peter's in this one…

Defense.
To little surprise St. Peter's limited Siena to an 82 offensive efficiency, the Peacocks forced a 26% turnover rate and limited the visitors to a 38% eFG mark. Siena shot 3 of 18 (16.7%) from three point range.

Siena trailed by 16 early in the second half but was able to tie it in the stretch. They never were able to get a lead which was significant from a momentum standpoint.

The Saints excelled at…offensive rebounding. They enjoyed a 39-25% edge in that area.

Chris Prescott of St. Peter's paced the scorers with 16 points. OD Anosike led Siena with a strong 12 point 10 rebound effort.

Manley efficiency leader.
Yvon Raymond of St. Peter's. Raymond put up a 'Manley' number of 18. He scored 15 points, pulled down 9 rebounds, had 2 assists, one block and only one turnover.

St. Peter's improved to 2-4 while Siena fell to the same won-lost record.

The coveted MAAC Championship Banner
Hangs in the Yanitelli Center in Jersey City

Leaving for Villanova Shortly...

2011-12-03T14:42:00.001-05:00

Villanova versus Penn Tonight at 7pm
Media credentials in hand (or at the Pavilion), I am heading down for the game tonight. Hope to see some Nova Nation fans at the Pavilion as the Wildcats play the Quakers. I should be courtside somewhere (usually near the basket opposite the Villanova bench). Come up and say hi if you have time.

Game Time Note -- Maurice Sutton is out with a dislocated thumb. Expect 2-3 week of downtime, the beginning of the Big East season?

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani -- St. Peter's at FDU

2011-12-02T01:06:00.000-05:00

by Ray Floriani

Teaneck, NJ - In women's basketball, FDU defeated St. Peter's 55-46 on Tuesday at Stratis Arena. The efficiency and pace (kind of tells it all):

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
St. Peter's	75	61
FDU	73	75

Visiting St.Peter's of the MAAC pushed the pace on both ends as the mid-seventies possession count shows. FDU, with point guard Amanda Andrades out with an ankle injury, struggled at the lead guard spot. FDU was guilty of 24 turnovers. Coach Peter Cinella credited St. Peter's defense but did admit his club needs work on cutting down on turnovers. Part of the problem was FDU accelerating when there was need to sporting a double digit lead and just under ten minutes to go. The TO rates are as follows:

	TO%
St. Peter's	21%
FDU	33%

Not an artistic gem of a game on either end. FDU entered the game with a 31% TO rate, so there is work to be done.

Mariyah Laury of FDU (3-5) led all scorers with 14 points. Laury did have 4 assists, but 8 turnovers as she was making the transition from two guard to the lead. Laury came through in the clutch, scoring two crucial baskets as St. Peter's rallied to get it to a one possession game in the stretch with two minutes to play. Jesika Holmes led St. Peter's (0-4) with 13 points.

Shooting, was a sore spot for St.Peter's. They shot 26% for the game including 9.5% (2 of 21) from three. The foul line wasn't much better as St. Peter's was only 44%. It was that kind of night for the Peahens.

Stat Stuffer: FDU forward Desiree Crawford with a Manley efficiency of 17. Crawford scored 7 points (3 of 8 shooting) but offset the under 50% shooting with 11 rebounds, 'only' two turnovers (not bad considering FDU's TO woes) and 7 blocks.

Stratis Arena interior during the game

Santa Clara Post Game: The Learning Curve

2011-11-29T16:38:00.001-05:00

What the Zebras Give, They Take Away
The first half ended with Villanova going to the line for three of their last five possessions. Down 28-32 when Jordan Akwenuke fouled Mouphtaou Yarou on yet another low post entry pass to send Yarou to the line. Villanova's center converted 2-2, as did Dominic Cheek on the Wildcats' next possession. The score tied at 32, the teams exchanged two empty trips apiece as the clock slipped below 0:30 Bronco guard Brandon Clark fouled Cheek on a three point attempt. The junior wing stepped to the line and sank all three attempts. Back the other way with three ticks left freshman Darrun Hilliard fouled Santa Clara point guard Evan Roquemore in the midst of a desparation three. To the line with 0:0.2 on the clock, Roquemore managed to get the Broncos two more points before the half, and Villanova retired to the locker room with a one point, 35-34 lead.

Not able to pull away in the second half, the Wildcats nevertheless had the ball and a five point lead, 64-59, with 0:57 left. Villanova was not only unable to convert their next two possessions, but they compounded the problem by putting Roquemore on the line for Santa Clara's corresponding two possessions. The second trip to the foul line was especially frustrating because Villanova's defense had denied the Broncos a clean look for a tieing three point attempt. With 10 seconds left on the clock Santa Clara Coach Kerry Keating had called time when the Bronco's first three point play had broken down. Thinking they had a foul to give, the Villanova staff instructed Hilliard to foul with seven ticks left. The scoreboard may have said five fouls (even the refereeing crew told the Villanova bench the wrong foul count), but the scorer's book said six, and Hilliard's foul-to-give put Roquemore back on the line where he dropped both and cut the lead to one, 65-64. Hilliard could not find an open player at mid-court, and forgetting he could run the baseline, dumped the inbound to JayVaughn Pinkston who was the outlet. The forward gathered the ball, but was fouled instantly by guard Raymond Cowells, thus putting the freshman, who had converted three of four free throw attempts to that point, on the line with the game hanging. Pinkston missed the front end, and stepped between Yannik Atanga and Roquemore to intercept the pass. He made contact with Roquemore with 0:04 on the clock and put Roquemore back on the line shooting one-and-one. Roquemore converted twice to claim the win for Santa Clara.

The Villanova blogosphere and messageboards have dissolved into a tasty ragou of factions and differing opinions. The bloggers over at VUHoops.com offered a critical recap that provided readers with an opportunity to comment. Those readers generated 206 comments, which spanned the spectrum from absolute disgust to wait and see. The blogger wisely abstained from grading the performances, though the title, "Sloppy Cats Bucked by Broncos" implies an opinion of sorts. The Nova Blog chose to accentuate the positive in their recap, "Things Aren't As Bad...". The University site posted the AP wire story and the official boxscore. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	Santa Clara
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	32.5	31.3	63.8
	Offense			Defense
	1st	2nd	Game	1st	2nd	Game
Rating	107.7	92.6	100.3	104.6	99.0	101.8
eFG%	45.8	48.1	47.1	60.0	50.0	55.0
TORate	18.5	25.5	21.9	18.5	16.0	17.2
OR%	28.6	35.0	32.4	7.7	13.3	10.7
FTA/FGA	58.3	29.6	43.1	20.0	24.0	22.0
FTM/FGA	54.2	11.1	31.4	16.0	24.0	20.0
ARate	60.0	36.4	47.6	58.3	50.0	54.5
Blk%	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.0	4.0	4.0
Stl%	3.1	9.4	6.2	0.0	9.7	4.7
PPWS	1.14	0.94	1.04	1.24	1.11	1.18
2FG%	47.1	38.9	42.9	42.9	55.6	47.8
3FG%	28.6	44.4	37.5	54.5	31.3	40.7
FT%	92.9	37.5	72.7	80.0	100.0	90.9
%2FG	45.7	48.3	46.9	35.3	32.3	33.8
%3FG	17.1	41.4	28.1	52.9	48.4	50.8
%FT	37.1	10.3	25.0	11.8	19.4	15.4

Half Time Adjustments
The pace was slow for Villanova, but consistent with Santa Clara's offensive style of play. The Broncos are a perimeter oriented team (POT), that uses motion to find open three point scoring opportunities, which may take time to develop. Stymied by the Bronco's zone defense early in the first half, Villanova found the adjustment after 5-7 minutes, and looked for Yarou to flash to the key for a pass. When he caught it, the center could then reverse the ball or turn and shoot. Shooting was extremely effective as Yarou converted 4-7, most from that spot, and went to the free throw line several times as well. Santa Clara bigs collected seven personals in the first half. Though that play was available in the second half, Yarou's hit only 3-6, with Markus Kennedy only able to convert 1-6 in a similar situation.

Notes & Observations
1. A 28.6% conversion rate for three point attempts in the first half, and a 38.9% two point conversion rate in the second half worked to keep Villanova's eFG% below 50% for both halves. Recognizing what the defense will give earlier might have made a difference going into the half-time. Taking advantage of a loose zone early in the second half helped to build a modest lead through the first few minutes. Santa Clara recognized Wayns' tendency to drive the lane with late game possessions and defensed the play well, despite Villanova setting the second screen. Who was available to take a pass at that point?

2. Maalik Wayns took over 30% of the possessions and 24% of the available shots when he was on the floor. Those numbers allow the other members on the floor a larger role than setting screens and grabbing rebounds, but dishing only three dimes to four turnovers continues to eat into his efficiency. Wayns' eFG% was a modest 50%, accounting for a 10 point contribution to the offense.

3. Yarou emerged as a legitimate primary scoring option in this game. The Santa Clara front court contingent was outclassed when matched with Yarou. The junior went 7-13 from the field and 5-7 from the line to post an eFG% of 53.8% with a 1.16 PPWS, the best on the team among those who logged 50% or more playing time and 20% or more Shot%. Yarou also corralled 10.7% of the available offensive rebounds, a strong number for low post players.

4. A possible hint of minute distribution and player rotation to come, the staff used 10 players again, but only seven saw more than 10 minutes of PT. Bell and Yarou drew >30 minutes, while Wayns, limited by foul trouble in the first half, drew 29.

5. The turnover rate among the freshmen (and Wayns...) was high, with Ty Johnson losing 49% of his possessions, followed by Pinkston (37%), (Wayns...29%) and Hilliard (26%). Kennedy lost only 13% of his possessions, a strong number considering he plays in the low post. Given the inbounds play that put Pinkston on the line with 6 seconds to go, the staff intends to use the freshmen extensively (do they have a choice?) and in critical, end game situations.

Perimeter Oriented Teams...
Santa Clara offers a typical profile for a team that looks to generate it's offense from the outside in. The Broncos show some obvious clues by their point distribution (50.8% from three point conversions), but the more subtle clues are present even if they did not convert as efficiently as they did. Note the offensive rebounding rate (10.7%) and free throw rate (FTA/FGA -- free throws to field goal attemtps -- 22.0%), both of which hint strongly that the Broncos avoid contact while scoring their points. The pace, possessions per game, also hint at a POT, the Broncos rely on a variety of screens and ball reversals to set up their scorers.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani -- Preseason NIT Finals

2011-11-27T12:41:00.001-05:00

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY -- The shot chart the last eight minutes of the game showed Syracuse with nine field goals, Kris Joseph hitting five of them. The senior forward was instrumental in the Syracuse's 69-63 victory over Stanford in the Pre-Season NIT championship at Madison Square Garden.

The court at Madison Square Garden

The scores:

Consolation Game...
Virginia Tech	59		57	Oklahoma State

Championship Game...
Syracuse	69		63	Stanford

The possessions and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Stanford	69	91
Syracuse	72	96

Beside Joseph, the victory was predicated on good old full court pressure defense. The Cardinal had an eight point lead with under seven minutes to go and appeared to be in control. Syracuse then went into the press that forced turnovers, created quick scores and accelerated the pace. As Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim pointed out, Stanford was doing a great job controlling the clock with possessions in the 30-35 second range. Down eight that late , it would have been very difficult to come back if the possessions continued at that pace.

Joseph had a game high 18 points, earning Most Outstanding Player honors. Those five field goals in the latter eight minutes came from varying areas. There was a three pointer, two mid range jumpers and two closely defended penetrations in the paint.

MVP Kris Joseph of Syracuse

Syracuse did have an eFg percentage of 51%. Regardless, Boeheim feels his offense or improvement of it, is priority one. The Orange were guilty of 21 turnovers, an extremely high 29% TO rate. The Cardinal struggled even greater in that area with 24 turnovers and an astounding 35% TO mark.

Johnny Dawkins' Pac 12 representatives did pound the boards with a 50% offensive rebounding percentage. Syracuse was close behind with 47% led by Fab Melo with 5 offensive boards, and the versatile Joseph adding four.

Syracuse -- specifically Jim Boeheim -- fans

Stanford's Josh Owens a 14 points per game scorer, struggled with a 4 point (2 of 7 shooting) performance in 31 minutes.

A satisfying tournament for Syracuse. Not only due to taking home the championship but facing two good teams, Virginia Tech in the semis and Stanford in the final. In the latter contest, how Syracuse pulled it out was very gratifying. Now, it's back to the offensive 'drawing board'.

Coaches Johnny Dawkins and Jim Boeheim post game

The consolation gave us a hard fought one possession contest.

The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Oklahoma State	56	102
Virginia Tech	61	97

Two major keys here. Travis Ford's teams like to get out and push the pace. Virginia Tech favors a half court environment and Seth Greenberg's group dictated tempo. Oklahoma State entered the game averaging 72 possessions and were held to 16 less than their norm. On the afternoon, Oklahoma state was limited to two fast break points.

Other big factor was the offensive glass. Virginia Tech started slow looking at an 8-0 deficit after the first four minutes. The Hokies continued to work inside and gradually wore down the Cowboys. Virginia Tech had a 48-37% advantage in offensive rebounding percentage. Dorian Finney-Smith, a 6-8 forward, did appreciable damage for tech with 8 offensive rebounds.

Tech, interestingly, only shot 35% eFG percentage. Given their rebounding edge and a tidy 18% TO rate, it's not a huge surprise they were able to pull this contest out and exit MSG with that well earned split.

The Honors (with their final game Manley efficiency):

MOP	Kris Joseph, Syracuse	22
All Tournament Team:	Dion Waiters, Syracuse	10
	C. J. Fair, Syracuse	12
	Aaron Bright, Stanford	13
	Erick Green, Virginia Tech	11

Markel Brown of Oklahoma State was not selected to the All-Tournament team but did lead the consolation game scorers with 19 points. His Manley efficiency checked in at an impressive 23 (largely due to the sophomore guard's 10 rebounds).

'Stat Stuffer' Melo
Fab Melo, Syracuse's sophomore center drew praise for his play in the final. The seven-footer played 32 minutes and scored 6 points (3 of 6 shooting) with 9 rebounds, 3 blocks and 3 steals. His final Manley efficiency, a very commendable 16. Second on the Orange in the championship game.

Street view from the pressroom,
New York on Black Friday

The 2011 Legends Classic -- 4 Takaways

2011-11-26T23:55:00.001-05:00

After I Got a Few Hours' Sleep Between Monday and Wednesday...
After blogging the Legends Classic Saturday and Monday night, I drove home to write the recap for RTC, sleep for an hour or two before embarking on a 24 hour juggling marathon of personal, professional and avocational responsibilities. Having an hour to actually sit and think...would probably put me to sleep. So before I think too long...

1. Entertaining & Exciting != High Quality & Excellent -- The fans who came out (mostly attached to the schools, which is a shame, these were very entertaining games) were treated to a four game set that included an overtime period between Oregon State and Texas Saturday, necessitated by an Oregon State make on the next-to-last possession of regulation (O State had not held the lead for more than one possession for the previous 32 mintues). Jared Cunningham sank two free throws to force the overtime period. Two other games featured the possible win or tie by the team holding the ball at the end of regulation. Nerve wracking for the winners and very exciting for those who came out to watch. The fourth game, by the way, was decided by seven points (three possessions), saw five lead changes and a tie in the last six minutes of play...hardly a snooze. So why does exciting not always equal excellent? The four games averaged 42.5 fouls (that is 21 fouls per team) and 35.8 turnovers (or nearly 18 per team per game). Each game seemed to have several stretches where both teams turned the ball over on successive possessions, leading to several sequences where the ball would change hands four-to-six times with teams exchanging "one-and-done" possessions, or possibly not taking a shot at all. Television timeouts, which seemed to stretch innocuous fouls into 2-3 minute huddle sessions, brought several promising runs to a screeching halt which fatally disrupted any attempts at a game flow. But the runs, taken by all four teams at various times, coupled with some impressive individual performances and wild end-of-regulation play sequences were strong redeeming qualities. Yes I'd do this again. In a heartbeat.

NC State's Richard Howell dunks
at the end of a run out
in State's loss to Vanderbilt

2. Vanderbilt Can Win Without Festus Ezeli (or Even Johnny Jenkins?!). Oregon State Cannot Without Jared Cunningham -- Coach Kevin Stallings put speculation about the impact of no Ezeli to bed quickly, and the subject of the post game interviews refocused on how Vanderbilt played rather than how they would have played. The Commodores downed two good -- not great -- teams from power conferences. Teams expected to finish in the upper division of their respective conferences, though not to seriously challenge for the top spots in their respective conferences. Given the competition, that Vanderbilt won both games speaks well for the Commodores' depth and poise. They bested middling teams from other power conferences without their starting center who was the team's #3 scorer and #2 rebounder (#1 offensive rebounder) speaks to the talent level that is now available. That is the basic talent level that will sustain them through SEC play. Ezeli, when he rehabilitates and rejoins the squad, will most likely make a difference as to whether the 'Dores finish #5 or #3 (or higher...) this season. His absence will not determine whether the squad has a winning or losing season. Opposing coaches spoke of Vanderbilt's experience in post game pressers, but invariably they mentioned senior wing Jeffrey Taylor, before junior guard John Jenkins, the leading SEC scorer last season.

Can the same be said for Oregon State? Coach Craig Robinson asserted to the assembled press that his team "...have quite a bit of character...", and "...[Jared Cunningham]'s a marked man now. We expect Jared to understand that help [his teammates] get involved...he affects the game even when he is not scoring 35 points a game...". While forward Devon Collier and pg Ahme Starks led the scoring against Vanderbilt, the Beavers' scoring is largely in those three teammates' hands. Though he had seven steals, the Beavers needed more than nine points from the junior off guard against Vanderbilt. Cunningham will need to post more than nine points per game to boost the Beaver's chances in Pac-12 play.

Starks (#3) & Collier (#44) are not enough
if the Beavers are to finish
in the Pac-12's top 3

3. Should Coach Barnes Test His Team for ADHD? -- Counting the two halves of each game separately, Texas "lost" the last four minutes three out of four times (four out of five if you count the Oregon State overtime Saturday). What happened? In the first half of their semi-final versus Oregon State, the Long Horns had just outscored the Beavers 14-7 from the 7:59 mark to the 4:00 mark. From there to the end of the half however the Horns managed eight points on eight possessions, for a 1.00 points per possession rate. The Beavers scored 10 point in eight possessions, good for a 1.25 ppp. Though the Horns retained a five point edge going into the intermission, they had Beavers on the ropes at the 4:00 minute mark, and let them go. The second half of Saturday's game followed a pattern similar to the first half, the Horns again established an edge going into the last four minutes (complements of a 13-6 scoring edge from the 11:50-4:00 mark), but lost focus again, scoring six points in their last eight possessions (0.75 ppp) to Oregon State's 12 points over eight possessions (1.50 ppp). The Horns shot 3-9 from the floor and 9-12 from the line in those two four minute slices, with no assists. Coach Robinson's squad shot 6-14 (with six assists) and 7-8 from the line.

Monday night's Consolation Game with North Carolina State had a similar pattern emerge with respect to "the last four", at least in the first half. Up by 13 at the 4:00 minute mark, the Horns scored their last five points in the half using six possessions (0.83 ppp), shooting 1-6 from the field with a single assist and 2-4 from the line.

NC State Coach Mark Gottfried can only watch
as Texas center Alexis Wangmene stuffs a putback
in first half of the Consolation Game

The Wolfpack scored eight points on seven possessions (1.14 ppp) on 1-2 shooting from the field (on an assist) and 5-6 from the line. Coach Barnes identified fouling as one of the areas the staff had to continue to address with the young team. J'Covan Brown's technical (and fifth foul) as a reaction to his fourth foul became a central theme in the post game presser. Coach Rick Barnes, reflecting on Brown offered "...That's where he gotta grow up. He's been in the program for three years and he's at different role now where these guys are looking for a lot from him...and he just can't do that. This has happened too much and sooner or later he's going to have to figure out that's what's going to keep him from where he wants to be and more importantly, it's a team game, and...he's got to realize it is not about him, there's more to it than scoring points...there's a lot that goes into being a part of a basketball team" Speaking with that gentle Southeastern drawl that tends to soothe the untrained Yankee ear, the coach continued "...he's come a long way...but he's, he ought to have it figured out by now...". In response to a later question about the impact of the technical on the team, Barnes responded "...I'm concerned for J'Covan. We're going to be fine. We've got enough guys who will work...the concerning part is for him. He's a junior, he's been here long enough and he ought to know...but for the team, if he doesn't do what he needs to do we'll move without him. We don't want to do that...everyone likes him...he's worked harder than he's ever worked in his life...but there's more to it...there's a mental side to it; there's a team component side to it...". Acknowledging that the technical "put them back on their heels..." was a mild statement.

Texas Coach Rick Barnes responded
to reporters' questions
but did he have any answers?

Leading 65-52 when Brown was T'ed up, the Horns could score only nine points on their last 16 possessions of the game (0.56 ppp), going 2-12 (no assists) from the field and 5-7 from the line. The Wolfpack scored 21 points on their last 16 possessions (1.56 ppp), converting 6-9 (four assists) from the field to go with 7-11 from the line.

Missing Saturday's semi-final with a rolled ankle
Wolfpack forward Scott Wood
provided outside scoring to complement State's inside game

4. Three For the Post Season? -- I left the 2010 Legends convinced that three of the four teams would play in the post season somewhere (in a tournament that starts with an "N"). Three did, though I was surprised at the details. I am not sure if three of the four teams I saw Saturday and Monday will go to the post season this time. Tournament winner Vanderbilt is the easy pick, assuming they do not hit anymore "Ezeli Bumps" (see Notre Dame's Tim Abromaitis), but which among the others will draw a bid? If Oregon State, the other finalist Monday does finish in the top 3/4 of the Pac-12 they will probably be tabbed. The win over Texas would help if there is any doubt, but Jared Cunningham has to show up. The Texas squad was not impressive, especially in the second loss to North Carolina State. But then neither was Michigan last season, and the Wolverines managed a bid as Coach Beilein's squad did mature and gel as the season progressed. North Carolina State did not impress in their semi-final game with Vanderbilt, but C. J. Leslie was back for his first game and Scott Wood was a DNP. The wing was solid, even on a shaky ankle, in the Wolfpack's win over Texas. And Leslie looked more comfortable than in his first game. Project (by Ken Pomeroy subscription) to tie for sixth in the Atlantic Coast Conference this season, North Carolina has an experienced squad. With Mark Gottfried at the helm and a staff that includes Bobby Lutz and Rob Moxley, the Wolfpack is better prepared to succeed than any of the past five years.

Texas freshman guard
Sterling Gibbs (#13) saw action in
the Consolation Game Monday

Saint Louis Post Game: Deja Vu

2011-11-26T22:52:00.001-05:00

Take Me Home, Country Roads
The first seven possessions went like clockwork, 13 points on 5-8 shooting with three made three point field goals as Villanova jumped out to a 13-5 lead on St. Louis. Then the Billinkens calmed down and began to work their offensive sets. The game tightened up as the Bills took a 12-10 run over the next six minutes to trim two points off of the Wildcats' lead. Then Mouphtao Yarou headed to the bench with his sesond foul of the half, and the wheels fell off of the wagon. Coach Rick Majerus' squad launched a 22-10 onslaught over the last 9:30 of the first period that wiped out Villanova's lead and sent Saint Louis into the lock room with a four point, 38-34 lead. And firm control on the game.

Watching Villanova's defense try to trap and press St. Louis reminded me of a badly played game of keep-away. By the mid point of the second half the relative youth (and indiscipline?) of the Wildcats showed with a series of flairing elbows and flagrant foul calls. Walking a fine line between tough, Big East defense and chippy basketball, the 'Cats found themselves under an unwelcomed refereeing microscope. The irony was that Villanova's offense was not terrible, as in lose-the-game terrible. With a 52.9% eFG% and turnover rate of 18.5%, how could Villanova be losing, and by double digits (the game was in the second half...) at that? The game reminded me of the West Virginia teams under John Beilein. Most of the time the Wildcats got much of what they wanted offensively, but would still lose to a Mountaineer team that understood what plays to run to exploit the Wildcats' help defense. As Blue and White defenders collapsed on the Billiken with the ball driving the lane (or at the elbow), the pass would go into the area just vacated by the "help" defender...to a Billiken flashing to the basket or set for a quick three. The Bills converted 14 of 27 three point attempts, far, far to high for any opponent to overcome. It was a game where high rebounding numbers and low turnover rates were marginalized by the extraordinary efficiency offered by the other team.

The bloggers over at VUHoops.com offered a brief recap with player grades while the Nova Blog posted a recap followed by a detailed player critique later. The University site posted their AP wire story. The official boxscore is also posted. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	St. Louis
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	32.4	31.9	64.3
	Offense			Defense
	1st	2nd	Game	1st	2nd	Game
Rating	105.1	106.5	105.8	117.5	131.6	124.5
eFG%	56.3	50.0	52.9	68.5	60.4	64.7
TORate	15.5	21.9	18.7	12.4	9.4	10.9
OR%	6.7	37.5	22.6	0.0	31.3	17.2
FTA/FGA	41.7	25.0	32.7	7.4	83.3	43.1
FTM/FGA	29.2	21.4	25.0	3.7	54.2	27.5
ARate	75.0	30.8	52.0	64.3	41.7	53.8
Blk%	4.2	7.1	5.8	0.0	4.2	2.0
Stl%	6.1	9.3	7.7	0.0	6.3	3.2
PPWS	1.18	1.09	1.13	1.36	1.25	1.30
2FG%	56.3	52.4	54.1	45.5	53.8	50.0
3FG%	37.5	28.6	33.3	56.3	45.5	51.9
FT%	70.0	85.7	76.5	50.0	65.0	63.6
%2FG	52.9	64.7	58.8	26.3	33.3	30.0
%3FG	26.5	17.6	22.1	71.1	35.7	52.5
%FT	20.6	17.6	19.1	2.6	31.0	17.5

Half Time Adjustments
An anemic 6.7% offensive rebounding rate in the first half was "corrected" to 37.5% in the second half. Realistically that was probably the only way to boost an already good 56.3% eFG%. Ironically the rebounding improved -- but the conversion rate still dropped. A 52.9% eFG% coupled with a 1.13 PPWS should be good enough offensively to chalk up the win. The Billikens however, sliced up Villanova's defense to the tune of a 64.7% eFG% and 1.30 PPWS, numbers that should draw a comment from Ken Pomeroy and others who track those numbers. Villanova's "help defense" was it's own worst enemy in this game. And the frustration manifested by a number of second half chippy fouls (and Darrun Hilliard's quick exit after his fourth foul) suggests the players knew their best efforts were useless to shut down the offense they faced.

Notes & Observations
1. The assist rate drop from first to second half (75.0 to 30.8) is clear evidence that the offense went away from dribble drive to one-on-one breakdown as a response to being down double digits for much of the perod.

2. Maalik Wayns took a whopping 44% of the shots when he was in the game. Given he played 87.5% of the available minutes at one of the guard positions, his high shooting percentage was not a distortion of the minutes. His 49% possession rate, however, tends to reduce Villanova's offense to one dimension. Stop Wayns and the Wildcats stall.

3. James Bell emerged as a legitimate second option on offense. The sophomore wing took 26.5% of the shots when he was on the floor, with a comparable percentage of the possessions. Now one (or both?) of Mouphtaou Yarou or Dominic Cheek must establish themselves as legitimate second/third scoring options. For Yarou that means staying in the game (and game flow). For Cheek it means shooting/scoring more consistently.

4. The staff used a 10 man rotation again. Minute distribution ranged from five (Ty Johnson to 35 (Wayns) minutes, with eight drawing 10 or more minutes.

5. St. Louis was paced by sophomore guard Jordair Jett who came off of the bench to score 19 points on 7-8 (2-2, 5-6) shooting from the floor and 3-6 from the line. Kwamain Mitchell (32.1% Shot%), Cody Ellis (23.5% Shot%) and Rob Loe (43.6% Shot%) were, along with Jett, the offensive mainstays for St. Louis. Mitchell did not convert efficiently however, and Loe played only nine minutes (taking five field goal attempts in that time span).

Up Next... -- Santa Clara will face Villanova in the 3rd place game on Sunday.

UC Riverside Post Game: Opening Strong

2011-11-25T03:08:00.001-05:00

The Burn Offense is Alive and Well...in Riverside, California
While it might seem far fetched that a basketball team can create a 25 point winning margin on just 58 (plus or minus 1?) possessions, that is precisely what Villanova did in their first round game with University of California Riverside of the 76 Classic in Anaheim, California. Looking at last season's kenpom ratings this would make some sense, the Wildcats obtained the highest rating among the eight schools invited to participate; UC Riverside had the lowest. Two things happened on the way to the first round...first, the balance of the field was not seeded in the anticipated 1-8, 2-7, 3-6, 4-5 fashion that one might have expected, and second, the kenpom ratings changed to reflect games played this season, and Villanova fell to #3 according to the kenpom system. The field was seeded to insure an "East-West" game for the finals. The only team in Villanova's bracket not from the Mississippi or east was UC Riverside, the team most likely to lose their first round game. All of the teams in the other bracket come from west of the Mississippi River Valley, Oklahoma, clearly a "southwestern" team is the most easterly team in the bracket. Villanova dismantled UC Riverside 71-46 in the most decisive game so far in the Wildcats' the 2011-12 schedule. The final will feature an East-West match.

The Highlanders held onto the lead for over 10 minutes in the first half. The shot clock, not a hot shooting hand or control of the offensive boards was the key. The Highlanders typically took 20-30 seconds off the clock before they took a field goal attempt. The Wildcats would more often than not gather the defensive rebound and respond with a shot (often a miss) anywhere from four to twenty seconds into the shot clock. That tactic, to "shorten" the game by burning the clock, is an often employed strategy by an overmatched underdog. It makes sense too; by limiting the scoring opportunities the underdog can, in theory, keep the score close, maximizing the impact of high reward offensive tactics like the three point attempt. By the 11 minute mark however, the Highlanders, overmatched on height, had no more fouls to give, and the Wildcats' offense began to grind them down. Freshman off guard Darrun Hilliard hit a three at the 9:30 mark putting Villanova up by one 15-14, and the Wildcats were not headed again. Once on top, the 'Cats took a 17-2 run to close out the half...and the game.

The bloggers over at Nova Blog and VUHoops.com attributed UC Riverside's 11 minute lead to hot shooting (the Highlanders) and sloppy play (the Wildcats), both of which were true. Sort of. UC Riverside did score in their first three possessions (which consumed over two minutes on the game clock), but those seven points were half of their entire point production through the first 11 minutes of the half. It took the Highlanders another nine minutes to scored their next seven points. And seven more minutes to score their next two (and last of the half) points. Villanova did go an appalling 2-9 from the field while they were down on the Highlanders, but stayed within contact by shooting 6-6 from the line. While the Highlanders committed seven fouls (putting the 'Cats in the bonus) with a single turnover over that time period, the 'Cats committed four fouls and one turnover by contrast. The University site posted their AP wire story. The official boxscore is also posted. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	UC Riverside
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	30.0	28.3	58.3
	Offense			Defense
	1st	2nd	Game	1st	2nd	Game
Rating	106.7	137.6	121.7	53.4	105.8	78.9

eFG%	41.7	53.0	48.2	25.0	45.8	35.0
TORate	13.3	14.1	13.7	23.3	24.7	24.0
OR%	27.8	64.7	45.7	28.6	42.9	34.3
FTA/FGA	58.3	12.1	31.6	26.9	33.3	30.0
FTM/FGA	50.0	12.1	28.1	11.5	33.3	22.0
ARate	62.5	31.3	41.7	33.3	10.0	18.8
Blk%	0.0	6.1	3.5	3.8	4.2	4.0
Stl%	0.0	7.2	3.5	9.9	6.9	8.5
PPWS	1.04	1.12	1.08	0.55	1.08	0.81
2FG%	30.8	48.1	42.5	31.3	47.1	39.4
3FG%	36.4	50.0	41.2	10.0	28.6	17.6
FT%	85.7	100.0	88.9	42.9	100.0	73.3
%2FG	25.0	66.7	47.9	62.5	53.3	56.5
%3FG	37.5	23.1	29.6	18.8	20.0	19.6
%FT	37.5	10.3	22.5	18.8	26.7	23.9

Half Time Adjustments
Villanova broke on top in the first because, though their eFG% was poor enough to be down at the half, was better than the Highlanders...shot defense. The Wildcats took care of the ball (see turnover rate) while forcing turnovers by UC Riverside. Second half stats show improved (reflected in the score margins, which ranged as high as 30 late in the second period, ultimately settling in at 25) shot efficiency (eFG%) coupled with much better offensive rebounding rates, even as the Wildcats continued to care for the ball (see turnover rate). The half-over-half steep drop in free throw rate (FTA/FGA) is most likely a reflection of the Highlanders' foul difficulties -- their bigs had to be careful, which may also account for the dramatic increase in Villanova's offensive rebounding rate (24.8 to 64.7).

Notes & Observations
1. The staff appears to have fixed on the starting five, using Maalik Wayns at the point with Darrun Hilliard and Dom Cheek rounding out the back court/wing sports, with James Bell playing the "#4" and Mouphtaou Yarou at the #5. The staff called the numbers for a total of 10 players who were alloted playing time ranging from eight minutes (freshman Ty Johnson again) up to 35 minutes (Wayns). Freshman Achraf Yacoubou drew a modestly surprising 20 minutes, due most likely to Bell's foul problems. Freshman JayVaughn Pinkston played for 17 minutes while fellow freshman Markus Kennedy drew 12 minutes.
2. Yarou and Wayns asserted themselves as hoped for. Yarou scored a double-double on 11 points and 10 rebounds. Wayns chipped in a game-high 23 points while the 'Cats had two others, Hilliard (12 points) and Bell (12 points) who also notched double digit minutes. Bell's 12 points were scored in 13 minutes of play, all that could be safely allocated given his foul problems.

3. A crucial and welcomed stat is the point distribution, highlighted in green above. Though Villanova shooters were hitting their three point attempts at a 50% clip, but the guards did not drop out to the arc and start jacking threes. Note points from two point attempts in the second half was 66%, and overall threes accounted for under 30% of the point production. Given the point margin was +20 through much of the second half the back court showed discipline and good judgement by not stepping back taking threes. They also insured that a cold streak would not let the Highlanders back into the game.

4. Wayns took about 40% of the possessions and 38% of the shots when he was on the court. This time he combined high usage with high efficiency, for the kind of production that will earn him some national attention. I have just about accepted the idea that he will be a volumn shooter, not a role I would like to see. Against programs like UC Riverside however, it works. He draws (defensive) attention, which should benefit second and third scoring options like Hilliard, Yarou and Yacoubou, both of whom took between 11% and 21% of the shots. Bell took a surprising 31% of the shots, but consider how little time he actually logged.

5. UC Riverside was paced by Daymond Cowlah, who scored 10 points on 4-7 (2-4 from threes, 2-3 from inside the arc). Team-high rebounding was shared by T.J. Burke and Elliot Berry.

6. Coach Jay Wright, as noted by VUSports.com, logged win #350 for his career.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani -- Legends Classic

2011-11-23T14:29:00.000-05:00

by Ray Floriani

East Rutherford, NJ - The attendance on both nights of the Ticketcity Legends Classic was, to put it politely, sparse. Too bad. There were four close games that got sloppy at times, remember it is not even Thanksgiving, but were not short on excitement coming down to the wire.

outside the Izod Center

The Scores:

Semifinal Games...
Vanderbilt	86	79	North Carolina State
Oregon State	100	95	Texas

Consolation Game...
North Carolina St.	77		74	Texas

Championship Game...
Vanderbilt	64		62	Oregon St.

We will look at the final evening's consolation and championship games from the Izod Center.

The possessions and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Texas	67	111
North Carolina St.	68	113

For the second straight night the Longhorns showed an efficiency that should win you a basketball game. But came up short. Unfortunately that was the case in each of Texas' games here. On Saturday they posted a gaudy 117 OE only to generously allow a 127 OE to Oregon State in that overtime affair. Both teams shot the ball well (Texas 52% eFG, NC State 50%) and cared for the ball rather well. Texas had a 19% TO rate while the Wolfpack of the ACC came in at 16%. Both numbers are what you would love to have in March, and are ecstatic about in November. Achilles heel for Texas, and it was noted by coach Rick Barnes, was the persistent fouling. NC State had an off the chart 75% FT rate. They shot 33 of 44 from the line.

NC state came back from 18 points down. They made the decisive run the latter part of the second half after Texas' J'Covan Brown fouled out. With the Texas lead guard exiled on fouls, the Longhorns were a different team. And one who could not hold off the surging Wolfpack.

Leading scorers:

		Manley
	Points	Efficiency
CJ Leslie, NCSU	17	13
Sparked Wolfpack off the bench each game
J'Covan Brown, Texas	17	17
Shot 7-14, 1 turnover & 7 assists

Championship Game

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Vanderbilt	69	93
Oregon State State	71	87

Resilience was the key. Vanderbilt by as much as nine but in a game with nine ties and lead changes, Oregon State was determined not to go away. The decision was sealed in the final seconds on a jumper by Vanderbilt's Brad Tinsley. Chalk it up to Oregon State's persistence coupled with Vanderbilt's 'bull in a china shop' care of the basketball. The Commodores were guilty of 22 turnovers, translated, a ridiculously high 32% TO rate. Oregon State wasn't much better with a 24% TO mark. The SEC representatives also outshot Oregon State from the field with a 54-45% eFG mark. In a one possession outcome that is a big factor.

John Jenkins' 14 points for Vanderbilt, included a huge three pointer in the stretch. Jared Cunningham of Oregon State, entered the game with a 26 ppg scoring average, was held to nine points but did have seven steals.

Vanderbilt is a very good club at this juncture. One would be safe to assume, they will be even better when 6-11 Festus Ezeli returns from a knee injury and rejoins the Commodores in a few weeks.

Leading Scorers:

		Manley
	Points	Efficiency
Devon Collier, Oregon St	19	25
John Jenkins, Vanderbilt	14	6

Upper press view of the Izod Center court

Jenkins' Manley number was affected by 5 of 13 shooting from the field, no assists and three turnovers. Make no mistake though, Jenkins' came up big both nights for coach Kevin Stallings and Vanderbilt.

Official Jim Burr and Vanderbilt coach Kevin Stallings
share a lighter moment

MVP	John Jenkins, Vanderbilt
All Tournament Team:	C.J. Leslie North Carolina St.
	Sheldon McClellan, Texas
	Jared Cunningham, Oregon St.
	Jeffrey Taylor, Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt raises the championship trophy

And Then There is...
-- Good officiating friend Guy Pagano, who lives in Northern New Jersey, worked the final with Jim Burr and Mike Stephens.

-- Had the pleasure of meeting and chatting with one of the tempo-free 'Gods', John Gasaway. John was covering with Basketball Prospectus colleague Andrew Cannon.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani -- At the Coaches vs Cancer

2011-11-20T14:53:00.000-05:00

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY -- The Coaches vs. Cancer final could be analyzed and dissected in several ways. The point that stands out is the second half effort by Mississippi State.

Lady Antebullum can wait
for two days it was college hoops at MSG

The Bulldogs expanded a one point half time lead, held Arizona to 23 second half points and went on to post a 67-57 championship game winning performance.

The possessions and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Arizona	62	92
Mississippi State	64	105

A further look at the two halves is necessary to illustrate the job Mississippi State on both ends of the floor those final twenty minutes.

	Efficiency by...
	1st	2nd	Gme
Arizona	103	79	92
Mississippi State	103	107	105

Both teams cared for the ball very well as Mississippi State was 14% in TO rate while Arizona came in with a creditable 16%. Bulldogs of the SEC were a bit stronger in the paint. They had a29-24% in offensive rebounding percentage and made more trips to the line with a 19-9% advantage in free throw rate.

Victorious, Mississippi State celebrates

There was one tie and Arizona never led. Still, the Wildcats were right there until Mississippi State pulled away in the waning minutes. Largely on defense as the second half efficiency shows.

Ray with Arizona cheerleaders

The Scores:

Semifinal Games...
Mississippi St.	69	60	Texas A&M
Arizona	81	72	St. John's

Consolation Game...
Texas A&M	58		57	St. John's

Championship Game...
Mississippi St.	67		57	Arizona

Observations of the Tempo Free Variety:
Following the consolation loss to Texas A&M, St. John's coach Steve Lavin noted how his team did a better job in the turnover (commission) department. Not that much better. An analogy would be if 70 is a passing grade, a student getting a 45 on a test then next time out getting a 60, shows improvement. Yes the latter exam was better , but both grades are failing.

Against Arizona the Red storm coughed the ball up 17 times. The number was 14 against A&M. But getting a better look at turnover rate, the percentage of possessions ending in a TO, we get the following numbers:

vs. Arizona	26%
vs. Texas A&M	22%

Granted the rate decreased but 20% is the cutoff. Twenty per cent or over is an unacceptable TO rate for an offense.

In the huddle
St. John's Steve Lavin and assistant Mike Dunlap (r)
go over adjustments during a time out.

Good defense by Mississippi state in the semifinal as well. They limited Texas A&M to an 88 offensive efficiency. State's big man Renardo Sidney received praise from coach Rick Stansbury for his hustle. Sidney, however, had a forgettable 3 point night against A&M, fueled by 0 for 8 shooting from the floor.

A 109 offensive efficiency usually wins games. In the semifinal meeting with Arizona, it didn't do the job for St. John's. The Wildcats of the Pac 12 posted an outstanding 127 offensive efficiency.

St. John's shot 51% from the field while Arizona was checking in at 42%. The eFG gives us a better read. Red Storm did go for 54% in that category but the Wildcats were 53% thanks to a 14 of 29 mark from beyond the arc. In fact 48% of Arizona's points came from three. While St. John's had only 13% of their points from a similar range.

Those 'first four' can often set the tone and tell us something important. First four minutes of the Texas A&M-Mississippi state game were crucial and eventually proved decisive. State hit three shots from long distance en route to a 15-5 lead . Texas A&M was never able to recover.

Free throw rates jumped off the stat sheet when assessing St. John's. they were 45% against Arizona and 51% in the consolation. The free throw rate divides made free throws by field goal attempts. Against A&M, St. John's shot 22 of 38 9no typo) from the line while the Aggies were 2 of 3.

St. John's has outstanding, aggressive dribble penetration that draws fouls and gets them to the line. Texas A&M Coach Billy Kennedy did not complain about the disparity but when asked simply smiled and said, "I really like New York so I won't get into it ."

Both games St. John's allowed a +40 in offensive rebound percentage. Arizona was 43% while Texas A&M came in at 46%. With a smaller lineup and limited depth, inside play will be a challenge for St. John's. Especially in Big East contests.

Both nights, Arizona's TO percentage was right on 16%. One of the main positives coach Sean Miller took from these games.

Tournament Honors (with their two day "Manley efficiency averages")...

MVP	Arnett Moultrie, Miss. State	20.0
All Tournament Team:
	Kourtney Roberson, Texas A&M	10.0
	Nurideen Lindsey, St. John's	10.5
	Jesse Perry, Arizona	14.5
	Dee Bost, Miss. State	12.5

Ray with the
the St. John's cheer squad

Delaware Post Game -- The Juniors

2011-11-19T14:09:00.001-05:00

On the Other Hand
In the 78-59 blowout Villanova handed Delaware in late December of last season, a few Blue Hens got a bit chippy at the end. Playing before a mellow crowd in the undersold Wells Fargo Center did not provide the electricity usually associated with Philadelphia's downtown pro venue. Maybe it was the disappointment or maybe it was the fact that the game was uncompetitive virtually from the tip-off, but the Blue Hens, staff and players were unhappy with the experience and made no effort to hide it. This season the game was completely different. The game was scheduled earlier (by a month), the venue a more intimate Pavilion on Villanova's campus and the contest much, much closer. The Hens had a year to focus their frustration and the results showed last night as Delaware still lost by double digits, 79-69, but went down fighting (figuratively speaking), holding the margin to the 8-10 range from the 35:00 mark in. Blue Hen guard Devon Saddler recorded the game-high 27 points on 10-26 (3-10, 7-16) shooting from the court and 2-4 from the line. 'Cat guards Maalik Wayns and Dominic Cheek notched 21 points apiece, team-high for the host.

The Wildcats took the first 5:52 to jump out to a 14-5 lead, in a tease that hinted at another 20+ win. The flow ground to a halt for the next 5:52 however, as the Blue Hens outscored Nova by a 4-1 margin on an ugly sequence that featured four points on eight possessions by Delaware and one point on seven possessions by Villanova. Though the 'Cats took a 14 point edge into the half-time break, the margin was based on a Villanova 8-3 run in the last 2:21 of the half. The second half featured a 16-6 Delaware run in the first 4:34, and while the two teams did not fall into another high-possession low-scoring funk, the Wildcats were not able to sustain a scoring run that could create the separation necessary to demoralize the Blue Hens. The teams hovered at the ten point margin for much of the last three minutes of play.

My last paragraphs echo the disappointment registered by the bloggers over at VUHoops.com and The Nova Blog, both of whom felt the winning margin should have been greater than 10 points. We should probably shut up; no point in giving Coach Monte Ross more bulletin board material. The University site posted their AP wire story. The official boxscore indicates that Throw Your V's Up blog can tally this one in the 0>10 "Home" column. The blog features an excellent breakdown on how the Wildcats performed in close games last season. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	Delaware
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	33.3	32.6	65.9
	Offense			Defense
	1st	2nd	Game	1st	2nd	Game
Rating	114.2	125.7	119.9	72.1	138.0	104.7
eFG%	51.9	58.6	55.4	37.9	58.3	49.2
TORate	15.0	15.3	15.2	24.0	15.3	19.7
OR%	27.8	42.9	34.4	30.0	50.0	39.5
FTA/FGA	51.9	27.6	39.3	13.8	8.3	10.8
FTM/FGA	37.0	24.1	30.4	6.9	8.3	7.7
ARate	75.0	66.7	70.4	70.0	64.7	66.7
Blk%	3.7	3.4	3.6	6.9	5.6	6.2
Stl%	3.0	12.6	7.6	18.2	6.0	12.1
PPWS	1.13	1.25	1.19	0.78	1.20	1.01
2FG%	53.3	57.9	55.9	50.0	52.9	51.5
3FG%	33.3	40.0	36.4	15.4	42.1	31.3
FT%	71.4	87.5	77.3	50.0	100.0	71.4
%2FG	42.1	53.7	48.1	66.7	40.0	49.3
%3FG	31.6	29.3	30.4	25.0	53.3	43.5
%FT	26.3	17.1	21.5	8.3	6.7	7.2

Half Time Adjustments
Villanova's first half can be traced to efficient shot (eFG% ) conversion, and tight defense. Note Delaware's 37.9% eFG% (nerves?) combined with low offensive rebounding (30%) and high turnover rate (24%). The Hens had few shot opportunities, and when they shot they neither converted nor did they get many second chances. If Villanova was not as dominant as they were versus Monmouth, they nevertheless converted well, rebounded their misses and did not turn the ball over much. Notice the second half collapse of Villanova's defense. The Blue Hens managed to score 45 points on just over 32 possessions. Last season that would have killed Villanova.

Notes & Observations
1. The staff started four guards for the fourth straight game (last exhibition plus three regular season games), using Wayns at the point with Bell playing the "#4" and Darrun Hilliard along with Dominic Cheek rotating between the #2 and the #3. Hilliard logged 27 minutes last night, down slightly from the tighter La Salle game. The staff shows a lot of confidence in the freshman, keeping him in the game when the score is closer. A total of 10 players were used, alloted playing time ranging from three minutes (freshman Ty Johnson) up to 36 minutes (Wayns). The three junior starters logged an average of 33.3 minutes apiece, as opposed to the other seven players who average 14.3 minutes apiece...remember Hilliard got 24 of those minutes, while freshman JayVaughn Pinkston played for another 19 minutes.
2. Among the junior starters, Yarou stepped into the "offensive engine" role, taking over 30% of the possessions and 33% of the shots in a very un "Guard U"-like performance. Wayns stepped back and worked on setting up the team a bit more (28% assist rate) while taking about 28% of the possessions and 24% of the shots. His efficiency exploded. Cheek (24% Shot%, 23% Poss%) logged numbers consistent with prior games, again suggesting his role will grow this season and he responded with another efficient scoring night (62.5% eFG%). Yarou was not as efficient, most likely due to turnovers (he had two). Pinkston, the other front court option, had a night of growing pains, going 0-6 from the field with two turnovers.
3. Rebounding was an issue for the first time this season as the 'Cats were outrebounded, 34-36, by the Hens. Note the table above, the big letdown was in the second half, where Villanova allowed Delaware to grab 50% of the Blue Hen misses, about 17% more than the Division I average, and 20% more than usual for Villanova.

A Look at the Legends Classic

2011-11-19T02:29:00.001-05:00

Breaking Out the log5...
I noticed Ken Pomeroy ran a few log5 calculations for destination invitationals running this weekend. The four teams competing in the Legends Championship Bracket this weekend were not included, so I decided to run the numbers and see who is favored. Note, the log5 calculation is an exercise in conditional probability, not a Nostradamus-inpired quatrain. log5 measures probabilities of a set of outcomes relative to each other, and should not, therefore, be taken as an absolute prediction of the future...but hey, it's fun and I am going to be doing a live blog for Rush the Court, so this is a good preparation for the double header (Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina State at 6:30, followed by Texas vs. Oregon State at about 8:30) on Saturday night and the playoff round (winners vs. winners, losers vs. losers) on Monday night.

	Final	Champ
Texas	78.8	20.8
Vanderbilt	67.5	18.1
No. Carolina State	32.5	2.2
Oregon State	21.2	0.03

Though Vanderbilt is the only ranked team (#20 in the Coaches Poll) in the field, Texas, by virtue of the easier semi final opponent, gets a slight nod in the final. Counter intuitive no doubt, but with the NCAA-mandated seven game suspension of Vandy's 6-11 scoring and rebounding machine Festus Ezeli, the Long Horns might be the favored choice...on potential anyway.

How They Got Here (Secaucus, New Jersey)
Though some (mostly birds migrating North in the spring and South in the fall...) might believe the Meadowlands of New Jersey is an exotic destination, the Legends is not a "destination" tournament like the Old Spice Classic or Paradise Jam. Each team headed to the IZOD Center for Saturday's showdown hosted two teams in preliminary play. Unlike the NIT Tip-Off however, the host, who may not be a preliminary round winner, advances to the Championship Bracket in Secaucus.

Texas breezed by Boston University 82-46 on 11/13, then down Rhode Island by 10, 100-90, on 11/15. Vanderbilt lost their first preliminary round game, 58-71, to Cleveland State on 11/13, but beat Bucknell 80-68, on 11/15. North Carolina State hammered Morehead State 91-61 on 11/13, then squeaked by Princeton 61-58 on 11/14. The last team in the Championship bracket, Oregon State, barely broke a sweat disposing of Division II West Alabama, 93-60, then faced a slightly tougher test as they downed Hofstra by 10, 82-72 on 11/16.

Vanderbilt versus North Carolina State
The Commodores bring a junior and senior dominated squad to the IZOD. Even with Ezeli sidelined, the 'Dores will start five upperclassmen, starting with senior point guard Brad Tinsley and SEC scoring champion John Jenkins in the back court. Senior Jeffrey Taylor will start at the wing, while seniors (and New Jersey native) Lance Goulbourne and Steve Tchiengang will start as duel forwards. Stallings has used between 10 and 12 players in each of the Commodores' first three games, though he felt the reserves were effective only in Vandy's last game (versus Bucknell). First year (at Raleigh) coach Mark Gottfried will counter with experienced starters, CJ Leslie's NCAA-mandated suspension should be completed by the Vanderbilt game. If he does not start at the #3/#4 he will come off the bench pretty quickly. Sophomore Lorenzo Brown will start at the point with freshman CJ Williams at the #2. The front court spots will be filled by junior Scott Wood, with two of Richard Howell, Leslie, DeShawn Painter or Jordan Vendenberg, the last two considered legitimate centers. Though Gottfried emptied the bench in the Wolfpack's only blowout (a 30 point win over Morehead State), he seems more comfortable with his first eight-to-nine players.

Texas versus Oregon State
The Long Horns lost their entire starting lineup in the off season, but Coach Rick Barnes has earned his reputation as one of the Big 12's strongest recruiters. Barnes has junior J'Coven Brown, a McDonald's All American as a high schooler, available to start this season. Senior Alexis Wangmene has started twice at the $4/#5, with three of his prized freshmen, Jon Holmes, Myck Kabongo and Julien Lewis starting and giving the Horns a three guard/two forward lineup. Barnes used a nine and ten man rotation in Texas' two games, suggesting that a few more members of his seven man freshman class (Sterling Gibbs, Sheldon McClellan and Jaylen Bond) will get regular minutes for the time being. Barnes has also called senior Clint Chapman's number often. Coach Craig Robinson has settled into his starting five, starting with Jared Cunningham at the off guard and Ahmed Starks at the point. Both Cunningham and Starks have 1-2 years of experience. Juniors Joe Barton and Angus Brandt will hold down the #4/#5 spots, with sophomore Devon Collier at the #3. Kevin McShane (senior forward), Roberto Nelson (sophomore guard), Calle Barton (true freshman, guard) and Eric Moreland (red shirt freshman, forward) saw minutes in each Oregon State's games so far.

The View From Here
Expect Vandy and Texas to meet in the finals Monday, with the States, North Carolina and Oregon to meet in the consolation game. Of the underdogs, Gottfried's Wolfpack might have the better shot at an upset, as Vandy has a habit of unexpectedly freezing up on occasion. CJ Leslie might be the unknown factor Saturday, but the 'Dores are very deep and experienced, with or without Ezeli. I will be running a live blog courtside for Rush the Court, starting around 6:30 Saturday night. Drop by for a courtside perspective if you have the time.

Big East versus Big West -- A Long (Beach) Night for Pittsburgh

2011-11-17T00:39:00.003-05:00

Maybe Long Beach State did not get the memo, visitors are supposed to lose at the Peterson Event Center. And out of conference visitors, especially those whose KenPom ratings are within ear shot of #100, are supposed to lose badly. If the beating, the first at home to a non-Big East opponent since 2005, was not bad enough however, taking it as a double-digit loss (86-76) has to be even worse. Dan Monson's 49ers led at the half by nine, 45-36, a half time deficit nearly matching the one they took to the locker room against Tennessee last season. The Panthers made the necessary adjustments in the second half to overcome the Vols, but not this time, as Long Beach added another point to their half time lead to make the winning margin an even 10. The AP story indicated Long Beach was able to consistently get behind their Pitt defenders, beating them consistently to the basket.

The possession-based stats indicate the same...

						FTA
	Pace	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Pittsburgh	65.8	1.16	54.3	18.2	35.5	24.1
Long Beach State		1.31	65.7	15.2	37.5	42.6

...as Pitt's defense gave up an astonishing 1.31 points per possession, 86 points on just under 66 possessions. Pitt likes to play for a 60-64 possessions typically, but this was not outside of their comfort zone. Reports suggesting Long Beach State was "fast" or "speedy" are slightly misleading. Guards Casper Ware, who scored a career-high 28 points, along with James Ennis, consistently scored on run-outs that originated from Panther miscues and missed field goal attempts. The 49ers converted 25 of 36 two point attempts, unthinkable except if they could consistently beat the Pitt defenders back to the basket. Monson's squad outrebounded Pittsburgh by three, 29 to 26, while getting to their offensive boards surprisingly well, grabbing 37.5% of their own misses, both very unPitt-like stats. Junior Dante Taylor started, but Gary McGhee's presumed successor in the low post logged about 20 minutes, yielding to red shirt sophomore Talib Zanna and freshman Klem Birch. Though Taylor provided offense from his spot in the lane, Zanna was much the better at board work, grabbing 25.8% of the available offensive boards and over 16% of the defensive boards while he was in the game. to Taylor's 6.8% (OReb%) and 17.8% (DReb%). I expect a big shake-up in the Panther lineup going forward.

La Salle Post Game -- Big 5 Parity?

2011-11-16T23:25:00.000-05:00

Last Laughs...
That collective snicker heard out of the Nova Nation Monday night when the sports ticker ran the Temple/Penn score (Temple 73-67 in overtime), the favor was returned Tuesday when Villanova needed an extra five minutes to beat La Salle, 76-69, as the two Philadelphia schools opened the Big 5 portion of their seasons. It was not a pretty game, marred by a combined 33 turnovers (20 committed by the Wildcats), 41 fouls (30 committed by La Salle) and sub 40% shooting from the field (Villanova 35.2%, La Salle 37.1%). Down by 10 at the 1:17 mark of the first half, the Wildcats used the next 2:45 for an 11-0 run to take their second lead of the game, 32-31 at the 18:31 mark of the second half. The last 18 minutes of regulation saw seven lead changes and six ties, as the longtime rivals built leads of up to five points as the half wound down. La Salle's senior wing Earl Pettis tied the game at 50 with a three point conversion at the 6:30 mark of regulation, and the Explorers took the lead on their next possession (a layup by sophomore guard Sam Mills) and used the next 5:08 to build a five point lead (61-56). With 1:22 left the Wildcats mounted one last offensive rush. Maalik Wayns hit a long jumper to bring the 'Cats to within two (59-61), then Wayns fouled to force an inbound play. Freshman guard Darrun Hilliard picked off Earl Pettis' inbound pass to Taylor Dunn, bolted to the bucket for the layup that knotted the game, for the eighth time, at 61, with less than a minute in the half. Hilliard stepped up to block a Taylor Dunn jumper, the deflection going to junior wing Dom Cheek, who passed to Wayns for a runout. Wayns missed the layup and the teams went into overtime. The Wildcats controlled the game virtually from the overtime tip-off, converting 2-2 at the free throw line (sophomore James Bell) on their second overtime possession. The Explorers tied once (at 63) at the 2:45 mark of overtime, but could do no more as the 'Cats closed out the period with a 13-6 run.

The University site posted their AP wire story. The official website also posted the boxscore, thank heaven. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	La Salle
	1st	2nd	OT	Game
Pace	36.7	31.3	10.4	78.4
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	OT	Game	1st	2nd	OT	Game
Rating	70.8	112.0	144.6	97.0	81.7	96.0	86.7	88.1
eFG%	30.4	44.2	50.0	38.9	48.1	40.6	37.5	42.9
TORate	38.1	12.8	19.3	25.5	21.8	12.8	9.6	16.6
OR%	42.1	33.3	33.3	37.5	0.0	33.3	37.5	22.2
FTA/FGA	69.6	57.7	200.0	75.9	23.1	15.6	0.0	15.7
FTM/FGA	52.2	46.2	200.0	63.0	19.2	12.5	0.0	12.9
ARate	57.1	30.0	50.0	42.1	70.0	50.0	0.0	50.0
Blk%	0.0	11.5	11.5	5.6	7.7	6.3	6.3	7.1
Stl%	10.9	12.9	12.9	12.7	10.9	3.2	3.2	6.4
PPWS	0.85	1.06	1.54	1.03	1.04	0.87	0.75	0.92
2FG%	63.6	36.8	100.0	48.4	31.3	47.6	33.3	39.1
3FG%	0.0	42.9	25.0	17.4	50.0	18.2	33.3	33.3
FT%	75.0	80.0	100.0	82.9	83.3	80.0	0.0	81.8
%2FG	53.8	40.0	13.3	39.5	33.3	66.7	66.7	52.2
%3FG	0.0	25.7	20.0	15.8	50.0	20.0	33.3	34.8
%FT	46.2	34.3	66.7	44.7	16.7	13.3	0.0	13.0

It's Beginning to Look A Lot Like Christmas
If I highlighted the good numbers with green and the disappointing numbers with red, the table above would take on the look of a Christmas card (actually a Valentine's Day card, not a whole lot of good news here), but instead I will use a Christmas-neutral yellow to highlight the four factors numbers that were critical to shaping the outcome. Converting shots at a 38.9% clip is a recipe for a loss, especially when your opponent is converting at a rate 4% greater (42.9%). Not until the overtime period, when Dr. Giannini's squad was most likely exhausted (three Explorers logged more than 40 minutes to Villanova's one), did Villanova convert at a 50% efficiency. Combined with a 25.5% turnover rate makes the win almost impossible. How did the 'Cats counter? They dominated the boards. Dominated might be an understatement, as the Villanova outrebounded La Salle by 15 (50-35). Offensively, the 'Cats grabbed 37.5% of their own misses, providing them with 15 more scoring opportunities. Defensively, Villanova grabbed nearly 78% of La Salle misses -- including a very impressive 100% defensive rebounding rate in the first half -- denying the Explorers the chance to "net out" Villanova's scoring advantage. Though La Salle took 16 more field goal attempts, Villanova held a 41-11 free throw attempt edge on 30 La Salle personal fouls. Freshman center Steve Zack fouled out in 18 minutes, while freshman starting forward, Jerrell Wright logged four fouls in 12 minutes of play. In all one Explorer (Zack) was DQ'd, while four others (Wright, plus Mills, Dunn and senior forward Devon White) played with four fouls. The 'Cats held a 34-9 margin in converted free throws, enough for the win.

Notes & Observations
1. The staff continues to show a four guard staring lineup, using Wayns at the point with Bell playing the "#4" and Hilliard and Cheek rotating between the #2 and the #3. Versus Monmouth Hilliard received a fairly short run, but versus La Salle the freshman logged an upper classman-like 34 minutes. Both the rotation was deeper (11 players to 10 used by Dr. Giannini) and the time more evenly distributed (one player with >40 minutes vs. three for La Salle) than the Explorers, but the regular rotation is clearly not carved in stone. Junior foward Maurice Sutton, an afterthought for the European Tour and Monmouth game (he logged five minutes in that 36 point romp last Friday) caught four very important overtime minutes versus La Salle. The junior was credited with a blocked shot and two defensive rebounds during his run. JayVaughn Pinkston picked up another 20 of playing time, while fellow freshman forward/center Markus Kennedy had only 10 minutes of time. Observers have suggested Kennedy is the "more ready" of the two, but the staff apparently likes what they see in Pinkston a bit more.
2. Among the starters, Wayns (36% Shot%, 36.3% Poss%) and Bell (26.3% Shot%, 27.7% Poss%) were the offensive engines. Neither was efficient, converting their shots at 37.5% and 41.7% respectively. Both however, redeemed themselves at the free throw line, using their converted free throws (Wayns was 10-10; Bell 5-6) to push their PPWS (points per weighted shot) above the 1.00 threshold. For Wayns, despite his horrific 5-16 shooting (though he did hit a crucial three point attempt at the 1:10 mark of regulation to cut La Salle's lead to a managable two), managed a number of heady plays at crunch time. He fouled with under 45 seconds left after La Salle broke Villanova's press. With fouls to give it forced an inbound play, thus setting the table for Hilliard's end-game heroics.
3. Mouphtaou Yarou and Cheek among the starters, along with Pinkston from the rotation, form a second/third option for scoring. Among the first/second/third options, only Yarou with a 57.1% eFG%, was efficient. Given Yarou's 19.4% Shot Rate, the guards will have to find him more often if the big is to have an impact on offense. Hilliard, with a 66.7% eFG%, was nearly invisible (statistically) on offense. His crucial conversion, a tying layup with under a minute to play, was the most obvious of several timely conversions.
4. Offensive boards came complements of Yarou (11.3%) and Kennedy (22.5% on limited minutes). Bell (8.9%) and Cheek (8.2%) are following that tradition of rebounding Villanova guards. On the defensive boards, again Yarou (31.2%) led the way with Wayns(!) following (18.7%), Pinkston (15.0%), Cheek (12.2%), Kennedy (10.0%) and Sutton (28.6% -- very limited minutes). The Explorers lack a dominant rebounder; Zack and Williams are not experienced enough yet.

Big 5 Notes
1. Dr. Giannini has never beaten Villanova, going 0-8 in his tenure at La Salle. Coach Wright is 10-1 versus La Salle in his 11 year run at Villanova.
2. As part of the Big 5 series dating back to 1955, Villanova holds a 30-23 edge over La Salle.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Champions Classic Recap

2011-11-16T15:54:00.000-05:00

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY -- A very attractive way to start the season. The first Madison Square Garden doubleheader, in the newly renovated arena, featured four 'Fortune 500' programs. The Scores:

Duke	74		69	Michigan State
Kentucky	75		65	Kansas

The under card (Duke vs. Michigan State) was a drag-it-out two and a half hour affair. Duke opened a double digit lead in the second half but had to withstand a late Michigan State surge. The Blue Devils never lost the lead in the stretch and gave coach Mike Krzyzewski his 903rd win, a mark that broke his mentor Bobby Knight's record.

#903 in the books
Coach K meets the press

Possession and efficiency:

	Duke	Mich. St.
Possessions	72	80
Offensive Efficiency	103	86

Why eFG is important (to really know what is happening). Duke shot 41% from the floor. Not a very good showing. Calculating their eFG the Blue Devils were 56%. Quite a difference. The breakdown shows Duke was 7 of 18 (39%) from two point range but 10 of 21 (48%) from three. The hottest hand belonged to Andre Dawkins, 6 of 10 beyond the arc, en route to a game high 26 points.

Blue Devil ft rate (ftm/fga) was off the charts. Duke was 30 of 41 from the line giving them a FTR of 77%. Thirty free throws made to 17 field goals made for the Blue Devils. It was that type of night.

Duke's Ryan Kelly was impressive. He scored 14 points in 30 minutes with perfection as a shooter. Kelly was 3 of 3 from the field (2 for 2 from three) and 6 for 6 from the charity stripe. The 6-11 junior also did a fine defensive job on Draymond Green of Michigan State. Green scored 10 points but committed 5 turnovers and shot 4 of 15 from the field.

Michigan State was paced by sophomore guard Keith Appling with 22 points. Appling provided the offensive surge allowing the Spartans to make a late run.

The Spartans still must assess and address the turnovers situation. They had 21 for a ridiculously high 26% TO rate. "Duke's defense pressures you," Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said. "But some of those turnovers were our own doing."

Numbers also included 19,979. That was the attendance -- a sellout.

Kentucky players take the floor
getting well wishes
from their adoring fans

The Over Card
The Kentucky-Kansas battle was the proverbial tale of two halves. The Wildcats did a lot of good things defensively but the story of the game was their explosion on the offensive end. The following chart breaks down the efficiencies of the halves and ultimately the game.

	Efficiency by...
	1st	2nd	Game
Kentucky	76	121	99
Kansas	80	100	90

The final possession total saw Kentucky with 76 and Kansas 72. A rather brisk pace indeed. Wildcats had a 25% turnover rate but did shoot the ball well (58$ eFG percentage) while limiting Kansas to a paltry 37% mark. Doron Lamb led Kentucky with 17 points and was 3 of 5 beyond the arc. Wildcats used some good ball movement the second half to give perimeter shooters some uncontested looks. Tyshawn Taylor of Kansas led all scorers with 22 points. Taylor penetrated well and got to the line. The junior guard did his damage on the line going 15 of 17. From the field he was only 3 of 13. Kansas, in fact, did a good job of penetrating but had virtually no mid-range or deep perimeter game to speak of.

John Calipari's club shared the wealth as five Kentucky players were in double figures. In addition , 56% of their 26 field goals were assisted.

Block Party...
Kentucky rejected 13 Jayhawk attempts with 6-10 freshman Anthony Davis leading the way with 7. The blocked shots doesn't even consider the attempts not sent back but altered.

The season is underway.
Ray and the Kansas cheerleaders
in the first shot of the season

Random Thoughts After First Friday

2011-11-13T16:45:00.001-05:00

As I Was Scanning the Scoreboard, Twitter, Messageboards, etc
A progessional obligation kept me away from the TV set (ie ESPN) as Division I resumed with a vengance Friday night. Though the season "started" with a dribble of games -- mostly campus site games for early season invitational tournaments -- Friday brought a whopping 131 games. I have not checked to see if all those games involved two D I opponents, we can guess that nearly 246 of Division I's 348 teams (69.5%) saw action. After streaming the Villanova-Monmouth game (a 106-70 rout) I started a wider search for comments/scores. Sifting through the scoring summaries and catching a few tweets, I found a handful of games that caught my eye...

What a Difference a Year Makes (part 1)
Big 5 fans followed the progress of Saint Joseph's freshmen class from a very uneven start in 2010-11 to a brief florish close the season. Western Kentucky, a Sun Belt Conference power over the years, thumped the Hawks 98-70 to open last season at the Hagan. This season the Hawks opened in Western Kentucky and returned the favor as they beat the Hilltoppers by 11, 72-61 in Bowling Green, KY. Guards Carl Jones and Langston Galloway did their thing (16 and 19 points respectively with three assists and five steals), but not seeing sophomore forward Ron Roberts in the starting lineup was a bit surprising (Hofstra transfer Halil Kanacevic got the nod and logged eight minutes before fouling out). Roberts did get a 31 minute run, recording his first double-double of the season -- 10 points and 11 rebounds. The really good news was C. J. Aiken's 35 minutes. The 6-9 center blocked five shots, scored 12 points, and drew only three fouls. Coach Martelli's charges will see Georgia Tech Thursday night in the Charleston Classic. This will be a reunion of sorts, as the Yellow Jackets are now coached by former Dayton head coach Brian Gregory. It should be a great opportunity for the Hawks to draw some national attention.

Oops, Wrong First Impressions...
An extremely enthusiastic tweet from Chris DiSano of College ChalkTalk about Rhode Island's freshman forward Jon Holton (and a follow up about senior guard Jamal Wilson's awesome 38 point outburst) sent me on a search for the Rhodi-George Mason boxscore. The game went into overtime with the Runnin' Rams dropping a two point (90-92) decision on the road. My first check on possessions had the game (overtime included) at around 92 possessions. I was wrong (I'll blame the unofficial box score for that...yeah, that's the ticket, it was the unofficial box score...), the calculation from the official box score puts the possessions at 87...which means my first thought -- Rhode Island needs more offense -- was off base. The Runnin' Rams gave up 1.06 points per possession to the Patriots, and handed the CAA another win over the A-10 (a problem come Selection Sunday). Granted Coach Baron is going to have a reliable second and third option, Wilson is not going to shoot 13-22 (1-2, 12-20) to go with an 11-12 from the line every night, but he has options now in his front court with senior Orion Outerbridge and sophomore Nikola Malesevic if the two forwards can exercise better judgement on their three point attempts. Combined they hit 3-14 from beyond the arc (nine points on 14 attempts), while shooting a combined 4-8 inside (eight points on eight attempts). Wilson by the way, posted a 61.4% eFG with a 1.39 PPWS, both will be noted elsewhere when I file my first report. Holton will need to work on his shot (2-11 from the field, 7-10 from the line), but he will see minutes because he is a rebounding monster -- he snagged a stunning 34.7% of the available defensive rebounds when he was on the court. URI might be able to get a bit more offense when Auburn transfer Andre Malone and Virginia transfer Billy Baron become eligible late next month. For now Coach Baron may have to rely on freshman Mike Powell to handle the point guard duties. For Powell GMU was something of a baptism of fire as he shot an underwhelming 3-11 from the field while handing out six dimes (nearly negated by five turnovers).

Wow, What a Difference...(part 2)
Saint Louis fans suffered through a multitude of basketball-related problems in 2010-11. I wondered going into the season how the Billikens would react to the log jam in the back court and whether they would find an offense to go their their lock-down defense (the Billikens were ranked #47 by Ken Pomeroy last season). Majerus is not reputed to be an especially "user friendly" coach, so losing one or more of the freshmen back court players before the season started would not have been too surprising (sophomore Christian Salecich did transfer out during the summer). The Bills struggled against the Carleton Ravens on their Canadian Tour this summer, losing red shirt junior guard Kwamain Mitchell at the end of their fourth exhibition, not the best sign going into the fall semester. Friday night they demolished Tennessee State of the Ohio Valley Conference, 71-37 (yup, the defense is back) before 6,400+ fans at Chaifetz. My numbers (unadjusted) show a 61 possession game (typical of Majerus), which means the defense is in mid-season form -- they held Tennessee State to a measly 0.60 points per possession), but the offense is still a work in progress. Mitchell started and coupled a horrific 3-11 outing with 40% shot rate in his 27 minute (66.7% of the playing time) run. Mitchell will get better (or take a seat on the bench, Majerus is not the most patient coach) to be sure. Conklin, along with sophomores Mike McCall and Jordair Jett compensated with very efficient shooting nights (combined they went 10-15 from the field). Limiting a team to 37 points is impressive. Saint Louis is headed off to the 76 Classic later this month, with a matchup versus Villanova a distinct possibility.

Speaking of Defensive Showcases
Buzz Williams' Marquette squad shut down Mount St. Mary's Friday night too, handing the Mountaineers a 54 point loss (91-37) to open the season. The offensive/defensive display was impressive, as the two played for about 71 possessions, thereby scoring about 1.28 points per possession, while limiting Mount St. Mary's to 0.58 PPP. The starting five Jae Crowder, Chris Otule, Darius Johnson-Odom, Vander Blue and Junior Cadougan (note the three guards?) did a nice job of distributing shots and possessions, which reminded me a bit of the Syracuse team from 2010. Blue in particular struggled late last season, but had an efficient outing (a 62.5% eFG on 5-8 shooting from the field, which computes to a 1.25 PPWS). Cadougan struggled a bit with his shot (4-9, 44.4% eFG), but made his double-double the hard way, 10 points to go with 10 dimes in 24 minutes of play.

Amidst the Blowouts
The Big East finished off their eight opponents -- home games all -- Friday night by an average of 25.3 points. Two exceptions to the exhibition of BCS muscle-flexing came in Morgantown and Piscataway. True West Virginia led from the opening tip, but Coach Bob Huggins' squad had to withstand a furious closing rush by the Golden Eagles to perserve a 78-71 win. The Scarlet Knights, like West Virginia, broke on top early, but needed free throws at the end to hold off Big Green. Coach Mike Rice's squad struggled on offense, converting possessions-to-points at a 0.98 rate (about 62.7 possessions). The shot conversion (50.0% eFG%) was fine, but turnovers (a 25%+ rate) undermined the effort. A 40.9% assist rate was not especially impressive either. If this is a representative game (at least until the freshmen catch up), expect the front court, powered by junior Dane Miller and sophomore Gilvyda Baruta to provide the points. Among the freshmen two guards, Jerome Seagears and Eli Carter posted nine points apiece on relatively efficient shooting. West Virginia played a predictably high 73 possession game with seniors Kevin Jones and Darryl Bryant providing a good deal of the offense. Surprisingly the staff started freshman Jabari Hinds at the point, and the 5-11 spark plug did not disappoint, scoring nine points to go with five assists. Freshman forward Miles Keaton also got the starting nod (a message to Kevin Noreen?) and snagged two rebounds and five steals in 21 minutes of play.

Monmouth Post Game -- King Rice's Debut

2011-11-12T03:39:00.001-05:00

Opening Night
Monmouth cashiered 13 year head coach Dave Calloway last spring, the culmination of a frustrating five year run of sub 0.500 seasons. Calloway's successor, King Rice, racked up 19 years through four stops before picking up the reins at Monmouth. His first order of business was fulfilling a return date obligation to Villanova, the result of a (nearly...) Christmas Eve game at Monmouth last season. The Wildcats' downed the Hawks in 36 point, 106-70 rout highlighted by a career-high 27 points by junior wing Dominic Cheek, nearly matched by a career-high 24 points by junior center Mouphtaou Yarou. The 106 point outburst was the second most scored in opening night game, a distinction I am sure Rice will remember.

The University site posted their AP wire story. The official website also posted the boxscore, thank heaven. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	Monmouth
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	37.8	41.9	79.6
	Offense			Defense
	1st	2nd	Game	1st	2nd	Game
Rating	145.7	121.8	133.1	90.1	85.9	87.9
eFG%	61.8	65.6	63.6	50.0	34.8	42.2
TORate	18.5	21.5	20.1	21.2	19.1	20.1
OR%	58.8	31.3	45.5	21.1	26.9	24.4
FTA/FGA	41.2	37.5	39.4	19.4	51.5	35.9
FTM/FGA	38.2	28.1	33.3	9.7	39.4	25.0
ARate	64.7	57.9	61.1	57.1	77.8	65.2
Blk%	14.7	9.4	12.1	6.5	6.1	6.3
Stl%	13.3	9.6	11.3	7.9	14.3	11.3
PPWS	1.35	1.35	1.35	1.00	0.88	0.93
2FG%	52.9	62.5	58.5	73.3	22.2	45.5
3FG%	47.1	50.0	48.0	18.8	33.3	25.8
FT%	92.9	75.0	84.6	50.0	76.5	69.6
%2FG	32.7	58.8	45.3	64.7	22.2	42.9
%3FG	43.6	23.5	34.0	26.5	41.7	34.3
%FT	23.6	17.6	20.8	8.8	36.1	22.9

This one is very simple -- just a sea of green (positive stats) on both sides of the ball. If there is room for improvement, look to the Hawks' first half shot efficiency (eFG%), a strong 50% based entirely on an 11-14 two point conversion rate, and largely offset by a brutal 3-15 three point conversion rate. A 51.5% free throw rate (FTA/FGA) in the second half may well be credited to a lead that fluctuated between 20 and 40 points through virtually the entire second half. Especially strong on the night, offensive shot efficiency and rebounding -- at both ends of the court.

Half Time Adjustments
If the Wildcats' scorching offense, responsible for nearly 1.5 points per possession, cooled off a bit in the second half, the 'Cats were able to turn up their defense, holding the Hawks to an even tighter 0.86 points per possession defense, down over 0.024 points per possession over their first half. Those looking for a clue on the relative importance of shot efficiency (eFG%) versus the other three factors -- offensive rebounding rate (OR%), turnover rate (TO%) and defensive fouling (FTA/FGA) can come to only one conclusion -- that the eFG% is the strongest determinant of the defensive efficiency rating. Though Monmouth registered improved numbers in turnovers, rebounding and getting to the line, their conversion efficiency declined due entirely to the dramatic decline in shot efficiency (eFG%).

Notes & Observations
1. A worrisome 40% possession rate by point guard Maalik Wayns was much lower versus the Hawks (25.2%), accompanied by an improved offensive efficiency rating for the junior point guard (109.7).
2. The staff emptied the bench, running all 12 rostered players through the game at one point or another. The juniors and James Bell logged at least 60% of the allocated time, with JayVaughn Pinkston getting a 21 minutes run (53.5% of the available minutes on the wing).
3. Markus Kennedy's promising outing lasted a too brief 16 minutes, due no small part to the four fouls he picked up...that's about one every four minutes.

2011-12 Preview -- Second Quartile

2011-11-10T11:41:00.001-05:00

The Bottom Half of the Top Half
The teams who finish in this quartile will have won at least 10 games and almost certainly (if they were not too cute with their out of conference schedule) have an NCAA bid in hand when they leave Madison Square Garden after the Big East Tournament. The quartile will have (by my projection) two new teams, Notre Dame sliding down from a first quartile finish last season, and Marquette, sliding up from the 2011 third quartile.

	2010-11 Season
	Overall			Big East			BET	Post
Team	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	Seed	Season?
Cincinnati	26	9	0.743	11	7	0.611	6	NCAA
Marquette	22	14	0.611	9	9	0.500	11	NCAA
Notre Dame	27	7	0.794	14	4	0.798	2	NCAA
West Virginia	21	12	0.636	11	7	0.611	7	NCAA

Marquette, Notre Dame and West Virginia have established themselves as upper division (at times elite) programs in conference play, no small feat in the Big East. Cincinnati is back. Labeled a Dead Man Walking when Andy Kennedy, the last vestage of the Bob Huggins Era, stormed out of Fifth Third after a first round NIT loss back in 2006, Mick Cronin has revived the program and has them within striking distance of the conference penthouse.

Team Thumbnail (in 300 words...more or less)
Cincinnati -- Bearcat Rising?
The offensive and defensive efficiencies (points per possession), along with the difference margin for the past three seasons...

	Efficiency
Season	Off.	Def.	Margin
2008-09	1.03	1.11	-0.08
2009-10	1.00	1.06	-0.05
2010-11	1.03	0.98	0.05

...if the trendline holds Coach Mick Cronin's squad should better their 11-7 record by one or two wins this season. Lance Stephenson came and went as did Ibrahima Thomas; Deonta Vaughn lifted the Bearcats a bit and moved on; Rashad Bishop took his 15 minutes on the great stage, but the constant over the past three seasons has been Yancy Gates (27.8 MPG, 11.9 PPG, 6.9 RPG) -- with a nod to Dion Dixon (26.8 MPG, 11.6 PPG, 1.5:1.0 ATO). Those two were the squad's leading scorers last season, and without a doubt Coach Mick Cronin is happy to have both back again this season. Though Thomas and Bishop (& Darnell Wilkes) are gone, the Bearcats return 59% of their 2010-11 minutes (four points above the conference average of 55%) and 66% of their scoring. As usual, the Cincinnati team starts with the front court where Gates will be joined by returning rotation player Justin Jackson. Red shirt freshman Kelvin Gaines will compete with 6-10 JUCO big Cheikh Mbodj for starts and minutes in the low post. A trio of freshmen fowards, Octavius Ellis, Jermaine Sanders and Shaquille Thomas will find work on the wing, giving Cronin a "going big" option. Thomas is especially well regarded in that group, though Ellis is an interesting 6-9 in height. The back court will have two year starter Cashmere Wright again manning the point and pair up with Dixon, a senior off guard. Sean Kilpatrick started a single game in 2011-12, but played an average of 20.5 minutes while appearing in all 35 of the Bearcats' games. Kilpatrick will get a bit of competition from JaQuan Parker, a 6-3 junior who saw more minutes as a freshman. With freshmen guards Jeremiah Davis (a 6-3 native of Muncie, IN who prepped at Huntington Prep last year) and Ge'Lawn Guyn, a Kentucky native who prepped at South Kent last season pushing the rotation, there will competition for minutes at virtually every position.

A road trip to Georgia, a Cross Town randezvous at the Cintas Center and a visit from Oklahoma highlight the out of conference slate, not, Xavier aside, the most challenging preparation for conference play. The Xavier game will be billed a Top 10/15 matchup, and should be closer than last season's 22 point Bearcat beatdown of the Musketeers. If 'Nati is 14-0 for their New Years Day (2012) game with Pittsburgh, count on this game as a Top 10 matchup. Drawing mirrors with Marquette, St. John's and Villanova should be interesting. 6-0 may not be likely (but possible), 5-1 with sweeps of Villanova and St. John's is, if the offense gels, within reach, though 4-2 would be a modest bump in the road. Top conference contenders Louisville, Notre Dame and Syracuse will all visit Fifth Third, an advantage for Cronin's charges. Going 3-0 against those three should cushion against a road slate that includes Connecticut, Georgetown, Pittsburgh and West Virginia. Going 4-0 against that slate would probably net them the regular season crown, not realistic, but 2-2, even 1-3 would be keep them in the hunt for a bye seed for the year-end Garden party.

Marquette -- Tom Crean's Best Recruit...

Which Warrior/Golden Eagle
was Tom Crean's Best Recruit?
A.	Travis Diener
B.	Dwayne Wade
C.	Jerel McNeal
D.	Buzz Williams

If you answered (A) you are clearly a (Wisconsin) homer; (B) is a logical response at this point; (C) and you probably did not pay attention to Marquette until they joined the Big East (hint, there was life before 2006); in another three seasons, (D) might be the new no brainer. The best news for Marquette in an otherwise bad news (for the Big East) off season was that Buzz Williams turned aside talk of the Oklahoma job quickly and focused on the job at hand in Milwaukee. True the Sooners are in pretty bad shape but Oklahoma AD Joe Castiglione asked Buzz first, and the three year veteran, coming off of his first Sweet Sixteen run looked at the Sooners, and took a pass. Which leads me to think he, looking over the Golden Eagle 2011-12 roster and prospects (and a new contract?), had to like what he saw in Milwaukee more than Norman, a huge development given Williams' southwest roots. Though he (the Williams with a B) was out coached by Williams (the one with an R) last March, chalk that up to inexperience, something I suspect will happen less the longer he stays and the more notebooks he fills.

Oklahoma did find a good match in a very experienced Lon Kruger, but Marquette fans have to feel good going into this season. They lost NBA draftee Jimmy Butler, and a couple of other seniors (not to mention a promising front court player in Erik Williams), but return 62% of their 2010-11 minutes and 61.8% of the scoring, strong hints about the balance on the roster. Starters Darius Johnson-Odom (off guard...30.0 MPG, 15.8 PPG, 2.4 APG), Jae Crowder (#4, 27.6 MPG, 11.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG) and Chris Otule (#5, 17.6 MPG, 5.1 PPG, 3.6 RPG) are back, along with center Devante Gardner whose role and involvement grew as the season progressed. Expect the sophomore to challenge Otule for a larger role in the low post this season. DJO will be joined in the Marquette back court by junior Junior Cadougan (19.8 MPG, 4.0 PPG, 3.2 APG) who, along with sophomore Vander Blue (19.0 MPG, 5.1 PPG, 1.6 APG), have logged starts in their time at Marquette. Freshmen prospects Derrick Wilson, a 6-0 product of The Hotchkiss School will be Cadougan's back up at the #1, while Todd Mayo, a 6-3 guard out of Huntington, WV by way of Notre Dame Prep in Massachusetts (and younger brother of OJ Mayo) will join Blue and DJO in an off guard/wing rotation. Crowder along with Otule and Gardner will anchor the front court, but expect Oregon transfer Jamil Wilson to fill Butler's shoes on the wing. If he can become a consistent contributor and improve his outside shot, the Golden Eagles will not write this off as a "rebuilding" year. Expect freshman forward, 6-6 Juan Anderson (after he returns from his three game, NCAA-imposed suspension) and junior Jamail Jones to share time in the wing/forward rotation.

Marquette will headline a Paradis Jam field that also includes fellow power conference members Mississippi (SEC, the probable second round opponent) and Virginia (ACC, the probable Finals opponent). Though the field is augmented with CAA representative Drexel and MVC contender Drake, Marquette should win out. The balance of the out of conference slate features games with state rival Wisconsin (at Madison), Washington (Jimmy V Classic, New York City), at LSU (SEC) and Vanderbilt, an SEC contender. A one (even two) loss record going into conference play should not dampen the enthusiasm among fans (or on the Selection Committee). Mirror games with Cincinnati, Georgetown and Villanova means Marquette drew a more competitive-than-usual slate. 3-3 against that field would not be cause for alarm, 4-2 or 5-1 would be a very good sign. The Warriors will get home court advantage against Louisville and Pittsburgh two teams who should challenge for the conference regular season title. Beating at least one of the two would put Williams' crew on the path to a 7-2/8-1 conference home record, a prerequisite for a bye seed and serious run at the title. Their road opponents include Connecticut, Notre Dame, Syracuse and West Virginia, a tough draw that requires a dominating performance at home as a counter to a poor road showing. A 5-4 or better record away from the Bradley would be good news for Willliams' team.

Notre Dame -- Brey For the Defense?
Want to know how the Irish will do in conference play this season? Watch their defensive efficiency (points per possession allowed). Their winning percentage "moves" in the opposite direction as their defensive efficiency, as the table below suggests. Book it.

	Efficiency			Record
Year	Off.	Def.	Margin	W	L	Pct.
2007-08	1.101	1.036	0.065	14	4	0.778
2008-09	1.097	1.081	0.016	8	10	0.444
2009-10	1.135	1.097	0.038	10	8	0.556
2010-11	1.130	1.055	0.075	14	4	0.778

Understand that Notre Dame's defense will not win any awards soon. The Irish defensive points per possession (ppp) did not rank higher than 10 in any of the seasons listed above. They were ranked as low as #13 in 2008-09.

Coach Brey's squad returns 54.4% of Notre Dame's 2011 minutes and 49.5% of that squad's scoring. Though he will start the season on the bench, Tim Abromaitis (34.2 MPG, 15.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG) won't be benched for the second game. The staff used the fifth year wing/forward in an exhibition game his sophomore season and then red shirted him, a minor NCAA violation that should have no impact on Notre Dame's season -- Mississippi Valley State should offer little resistence. Eric Atkins (25.4 MPG, 5.8 PPG, 3.2 APG) will start at the point, much as he did last season, with fellow sophomore Joey Brooks (7.6 MPG, 1.6 PPG, 0.4 APG) along side him in the back court and senior Scott Martin (30.5 MPG, 9.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG) -- when his ankle is ready -- along side Abro on the wing. Brey will have the option of starting four guards (unlikely outside of the exhibition season), in which case he can call sophomore Alex Dragicevich or his classmate Jerian Grant, both of whom will fit into the regular rotation this season. Brey will go big and Jack Cooley (10.3 MPG, 3.7 PPG, 3.1 RPG), a Luke Harangody look-alike who appeared in all 34 games last season as Tyronne Nash's back up will get the nod. Freshman guard/forward Pat Connaughton (6-5, 206 pounds out of St. John's Prep in Arlington, Mass) will see time in the regular rotaton, while junior front court players Mike Broghammer and Tom Knight will draw situational minutes.

Notre Dame will compete in the CBE Classic, a mixed format invitational which provides two home games and a two round "championship" bracket against two BCS-level opponents on a neutral court (Kansas City, MO). The "regional" visitors are Detroit and Sam Houston State, while the Irish will face Missouri (Big 12) and one of California (Pac-12) or Georgia (SEC) in the second game. Missouri and California could be contenders in their respective conferences, while Georgia will finish somewhere in the middle of the SEC East. The Irish will travel to Washington state for a game with Gonzaga, then take a return engagement at the BB&T Classic to play Maryland (a strong showing in 2006-07 brought national exposure to the Kurz/Harangody front court combination). The out of conference scehcule winds down with a game in the Crossroads Classic versus Big Ten (and in state rival) Indiana. The Irish draw mirror games with Connecticut, Rutgers and West Virginia. If Notre Dame can perform on the road (an intermittent problem the past few seasons), they should log no worse than a 4-2 record (sweep Rutgers and split with UConn and WVU), with a ceiling of five wins, especially if West Virginia struggles. 3-3 signals a big problem with the 2012 edition of the program. If Notre Dame are "feeling normal", they Joyce Center will be a problem for everyone on their home slate (DePaul, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Providence, South Florida and Syracuse), though several (Pitt? Cuse? Marquette?) should be able to overcome the considerable advantage the Irish muster on their home court...4-2 perhaps? More likely 5-1 only if they are very, very good. The road slate as implemented may be less imposing than it looks on paper (Cincinnati, Georgetown, Louisville, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova). The Irish catch Cincinnati and Louisville early (Coach Pitino's teams tend to gel later in the season), while visiting both Georgetown and Villanova in February, a time when the Hoyas and Wildcats tend to fade. On paper 2-4 might look reasonable, but should Coach Brey's squad catch all the breaks, look for a ceiling of 5-1 -- in which case the Irish will be in serious pursuit of a bye seed to Madison Square Garden next March.

West Virginia -- Old Reliable?
The Big East coaches projected a #7 finish for the 'Eers with good reason -- West Virginia has not logged a losing conference record or a lower division finish in Bob Huggins four year tenure in Morgantown...

Season	W	L	Pct.	Mins
2010-11	11	7	0.668	55.9%
2009-10	13	5	0.722	65.9%
2008-09	10	8	0.556	61.9%
2007-08	11	7	0.668	53.8%

While the program returns only 39.3% of their 2010-11 minutes, the group will have nearly 45% of those points back.

Coach Huggins will bring back an inside-outside combination that should anchor both the front and back court contingents. Senior point guard Darryl Bryant (26.6 MPG, 11.6 PPG, 3.0 APG) will team with senior forward Kevin Jones (34.9 MPG, 13.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG) to bring experience to the lineup. Bryant, who had a period of adjustment between his freshman and sophomore seasons, has settled into the program and may be poised to have the season the Mountaineer Nation has anticipated since his All-Conference Rookie Team days. Huggins loves forwards and he will have several to look to this season, including returning junior rotation player Deniz Kilicli (16.4 MPG, 6.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG), a 6-9 bfc who was well regarded when he arrived in Morgantown (after a few delays) two seasons ago, red shirt freshman Kevin Noreen, a 6-10 245 pound bfc who played less than 40 minutes last season, 6-8, 240 pound JUCO junior Dominique Rutledge, a New Jersey native who made stops at Hutchenson CC (Kansas), Miami-Dade CC (Florida) and Western Texas College before landing in Morgantown. Rutledge, having played ball for Hutchenson and Miami-Dade, will be available immediately and has two years of eligibility. Those four will (barring injury) carrying the large portion of minutes (Jones, possibly Klicli -- sidelined with a ding to his knee and/or Noreen will start) though the freshman class also has several players to contribute to the front court rotation. Keaton Miles, a 6-6 'tweener out of Dallas, Texas started in West Virginia's exhibition loss to Northern Kentucky last weekend, while Pat Forsythe, a 6-11 240 pound center out of Brunswick High School in Ohio, Aaron Brown and Tommie McCune are also available (they combined for 26 minutes versus Northern Kentucky). In the back court, expect a starting tandem of Bryant and 5-11 Mount Vernon, NY native Jabari Hinds a veru well-regarded point guard. Include Paul Williamson (6-3, 195 lbs), Gary Browne (6-1, 185 lbs) and Aric Dickerson (6-5, 180 lbs) among the other freshmen who fill out the 2011-12 roster. A-10 refugees Aaric Murray (La Salle) and Juwan Statten (Dayton) will sit this season and continue their collegiate careers next season.

The out of conference schedule includes trips to Mississippi State (the Big East/SEC Challenge), a semi-neutral meeting with Kansas State, Miami in Morgantown and (pre)Christmas in Las Vegas that includes meetings with Missouri State and Baylor on consecutive nights. Getting to the conference regular season with a 12-0 record is not realistic, especially with the number of freshmen on the squad...11-1/10-2 however, is probable and would earn WVU a few votes in the polls. In addition to Backyard Brawl rival Pittsburgh, West Virginia drew Notre Dame and Rutgers as mirrors. 4-2 (sweep Rutgers, split with Pitt and NDU) seems reasonable, but given the early season road trip through the New York City metro area (Seton Hall and then Rutgers), the 'Eers may end up with three splits and 3-3 with the mirrors. Hosting Cincinnati, DePaul, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette and Villanova is especially fortuitous, given that 'Nati, GTown the Ville, Marquette and Nova should be WVU's nearest rivals in conference standings and the Coliseum is one of the least hospitable venues in the conference. 6-0/5-1 would put Huggins' squad in line for a bye seed. The road slate includes Connecticut, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, South Florida and Syracuse. Another very amenable slate for the 'Eers, 4-2 is probably the ceiling. 3-3, irrespective of the home and mirror records, is probably the floor...anything lower and WVU is probably not going to post a 0.500 or better record in conference play.

Elements They Share
Each of these four squads have an all-conference player or two. And if each has a question or two that will influence how their season plays out, none has an obvious hole in the roster that must be plugged to stay in the upper half of the conference. Their rotations are deep enough that a single injury would not derail the season. Two injuries on the other hand...

Most Likely to...(and why):
To Move Up a Quartile -- Cincinnati (or Marquette). Cronin and Williams are younger coaches whose players seem to respond to their passionate approach to basketball, game management and coaching. Each is a player (or a player-and-a-half) away from a Top 10 team. If Gates can hold down the low post with Thomas or Ellis emerging (along with Kilpatrick) on the wing or if Mbodj can improve over Thomas' contribution in the low post (and let Gates ad lib), then the Bearcats will be hard to stop. Can the Warriors' Wilson continue to work hard and stay focused? If the transfer can do that, and the Cadougan/Blue/Wilson combination make the point guard position work again for Marquette, then the Golden Eagles will pull a few upsets before the season's final gun.

Move Down a Quartile -- West Virginia. The 'Eers have a lot of questions to answer. If things break badly they may have problems holding the slide to 9-9. Notre Dame is another wildcatd. The Irish offense will be good -- it always is. Their standing will resolve over their defense.

Three Point Guards, Seven Games

2011-11-10T02:01:00.001-05:00

Crunching Box Scores While Working on Previews
Yes, I can multi-task, sort of. I looked closely at these three team (Providence, St. John's and Villanova) for a variety of reasons...

Providence because my sense is the Friars will struggle. They don't have many (any?) "names" in the line and I wondered who rookie coach Ed Cooley would look to for offense (beyond the obvious go-to guy, Vincent Council), a problem especially acute since Cooley has indefinitely suspended Kadeem Batts, their sophomore front court anchor. Couple Batts' loss with that of freshman guard Kiwi Gardner (academic eligibility issues) and Cooley is tasked with sheparding a dangerously shallow rotation, one that makes even intersquad scrimmages a challenge, through a very physical Big East Conference schedule.
St. John's because though Steve Lavin brought the Johnnies back last season. Even as the Red Storms' success was being played out on the court at Madison Square Garden, the subtext in the press room was what would happen this season, when Lavin had to go to war with one of the youngest squads in Division I ball.
Villanova because I am an alum and a fan. And also because Coach Wright is faced with replacing three 1,500 point scorers this season...on top of 2,200 point scorer Scottie Reynolds from 2010.

Vincent Council
The Friars handled Assumption despite the double dose of bad news that preceeded the game. Providence previews annointed guard Vince Council as "The Marshon Brooks of 2012", a tribute of sorts the Friars' high scoring guard who graduated in May of 2011. The numbers so far bare that out. In the two exhibition games...

Vince Council's Exhibition #s
Team	Min%	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS
Assumption	80.0	34.0	33.9	42.3	0.95
UMass-Lowell	95.0	34.6	25.9	33.3	0.77

Even with a 13 point game in hand Council played 80% of the minutes in the back court in the Assumption College game. When the game was on the line (Providence beat UMass-Lowell by a single point, 76-75) Council put in another 15%, upping his playing time to 95% of the available minutes. The large percentage of minutes makes the possession and shot numbers even more credible. Council did not check in for a few five minute runs where he tossed up a barrage of shots. He played nearly every minute of the game, so when his possession rate is 34%, it really means he finished over 1 in 3 Friar possessions. A huge percentage of the possessions. The most possession-intensive player in Division I last season was Anatoly Bose (yeah, me neither...) of 14-14 Nichols State in the Southland Conference. Jimmer Fredette of Brigham Young was #2, but you would probably not recognize the next eight members on the list. If Providence is to succeed this season with Council taking that many possessions (Brooks by the way played 90.9% of the minutes at his position, consumed 29.7% of the team's possessions in his minutes and recorded an offensive rating -- points per 100 possessions -- of 114.8) Council will have to post an offensive rating better than the 90.0 rating that he currently sports. A shot conversion efficiency of (see above) 42.3 and 33.3 is, given his shot rate (33.9 and 25.9 respectively), serves as a major drag on the Friars' scoring efficiency. His 14 assists are a strong positive note. The Friars, beside Council, who seemed to take possessions and shots included sophomore Gerald Coleman (Poss%s of 23.4% and 32.8%) and freshman forward LaDontae Henton (Poss%s of 17.7% and 32.9%), while sophomore guard Bryce Cotton (offensive ratings of 102.4 and 140.9) and junior forward Bilal Dixon (115.8 and 116.6) were the most efficient scorers. Council might do better to look for Cotton and Dixon a little more. A second disquieting note was the Friars' offensive efficiency (points per possession scored) in the two games -- 1.00 versus UMass-Lowell and 0.95 versus Assumption. Both are far too low given the opposition, a very strong hint that Providence will be offense-challenged this season.

Nurideen Lindsey
The JUCO guard was hailed as the straw that would stir the Johnnies' drink this season even before the loss of Sampson, Pelle and Garrett. Lacking the three freshmen and a roster that, with two walk ons (and a scholarship player who was a walk on last season), totals 10, the role of offensive engine falls even more heavily on Lindsey. Crunching the box scores from St. John's two exhibitions and two regular season games, it is clear that Lindsey is picking up a lot of the Red Storm's offense. Through the four games Lindsey's Poss% has ranged from the mid/high 20s (Lehigh) up to the low 30s (St. Mary's and C.W. Post). Unlike Providence however, St. John's has three who seem ready to actively contribute to the offense. Freshman forward Maurice Harkless has consistently retained an comparable or higher possesion rate than Lindsey, with freshman guard D'Angelo Harrison and JUCO center God'sgift Achiuwa (less consistently) stepping in as effective #2 through #4 option on offense. St. John's efficiency has moved to a very comfortable level for the competition, topping over 1.10 points per possession in their games with C.W. Post, William & Mary and Lehigh. At least one (often two) of those three have topped 110 for an offensive rating. The rotation has been consistently included seven players.

Maalik Wayns
The Nova staff used a 10 man rotation against a Division III opponent (New York Institute of Technology) that it beat by 38. The Wildcats were able to support a rotation that large is one difference between Villanova, St. John's and Providence. A few of the offensive possession-based stats extrapolated from the box score...

Player	Min%	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS
Mouphtaou Yarou	52.5	22.6	20.3	50.0	1.12
Maalik Wayns	67.5	40.7	31.6	43.8	1.06
Darrun Hilliard	42.5	14.9	12.5	37.5	1.01
Dominic Cheek	65.0	33.9	22.6	18.2	0.62
James Bell	62.5	15.6	21.3	85.0	1.70
Ty Johnson	35.0	29.4	22.9	50.0	1.00
Markus Kennedy	37.5	30.6	14.2	25.0	0.50
JayVaughn Pinkston	52.5	32.1	17.8	42.9	0.87
Achraf Yacoubou	67.5	15.6	15.8	68.8	1.38
Mo Sutton	17.5	14.3	7.6	100.0	1.36

The second is that no Wildcat logged more than 68% of the playing time at his position, consistent with a 38 point route of an opponent. The numbers that caught my eye however was Wayns' possession rate, a whopping 40.7%, strongly reminescent of the rates racked up (in alternating games...) by Wayns and then Wildcat Corey Fisher. The product of (slight) playing time distortions perhaps, but nevertheless disconcerting. Wayns did dish seven assists, something that would have, ironically, raised his possession rate very slightly. His 16 field goal attempts were, however, a far greater contributor to that possession rate. Wayns took 31.6% of the shots during his run, posting a conversion efficiency rate (eFG%) of 43.8%, not especially strong. The second, third and other contributors to the offense were (not surprisingly) junior wing Dom Cheek, Ty Johnson and Mouphtaou Yarou. Note the possession rate-shot rate disparity for JayVaughn Pinkston and Markus Kennedy is due to a combination of (relatively) high number of offensive rebounds and turnovers committed, two stats that contribute to a player's possession rate. Both snagged multiple offensive boards and committed numerous turnover (though in Pinkston's defense, he had more assists -- another possession-contributor -- than turnovers). The team logged an offensive effieciency of 1.21, consistent with play against a D III opponent when employing a 10 man rotation and despite shooting a miserable 5-21 (23.8%) from the three point line, compensated for by converting 29-54 (53.7%) from inside the arc.

2011-12 Preview -- Third Quartile

2011-11-09T05:15:00.000-05:00

Across the Great Divide
Although three of the four teams that finished in the third quartile earned bids to the NCAA Tournament in March 2011 -- one of them won the National Championship -- this is still the lower half of the conference, and over the course of 18 games those four could win at most half of the conference games scheduled for them. The conference will not send 11 teams to the NCAA Tournament this season, but four teams will still finish between #9 and #12, and win at most nine games against their conference mates.

	2010-11 Season
	Overall			Big East			BET	Post
Team	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	Seed	Seasn?
Georgetown	21	11	0.558	10	8	0.556	8	NCAA
Seton Hall	13	18	0.420	7	11	0.389	12	BET
St. John's	21	12	0.636	12	6	0.667	5	NCAA
Villanova	21	12	0.636	9	9	0.500	10	NCAA

This third quartile is an interesting mix of teams that seemed to do better last season (Georgetown & St. John's) matched with teams that seem to be treading water (Seton Hall & Villanova).

Team Thumbnail (in 300 words...more or less)
Georgetown -- Funky February, part 1
Since running to the Final Four in 2006-07, the Hoyas' monthly cumulative record has been...

Month	W	L	Pct.
November	19	1	0.950
December	21	4	0.840
January	20	13	0.606
February	16	13	0.552
March	10	11	0.476

While Coach John Thompson's squad does play a few out of conference games after December (and one or two conference games over that time period in December...), the table hints strongly that Georgetown consistently struggles with the backend of their conference schedule. Is the composition of schedule at fault? Looking at the composite using possession-based stats (along with Pythagoreas...) and we get a bit more insight on the problem...

	Efficiency
Month	Off	Def	Margin	PWP
November	1.115	0.883	0.232	0.936
December	1.164	0.899	0.265	0.951
January	1.072	1.031	0.041	0.611
February	1.041	1.012	0.028	0.588
March	1.018	1.040	-0.022	0.440

The Hoyas are always good for one or two early season Whaaat? losses. The table indicates they tend to come in December (note the difference between wins in the first table, and the Pythagorean Winning Percentage -- PWP -- in the second table...the Hoyas should have more wins in December that they actually had). Most interesting however, is the loss of offense in February. Defense seems to improve as they move from January into February, but the offense tapers off. A quick reaction might be that the Georgetown teams suffer from freshmen fatigue, but the teams last season and 2009-10 did not to their freshmen for points.

The Hoyas return 48.5% of their 2010-11 minutes and 42.5% of their points, a reflection of the large roles played by Austin Freeman, Chris Wright and Julian Vaughn. Of the returning players, wing Jason Clark (30.6 MPG, 12.0 PPG, 4.1 RPG) and forward Hollis Thompson (23.3 MPG, 8.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG) were the most prolific scorers. They will most likely be joined by sophomore power forward Nate Lubick (19.7 MPG, 4.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG). All three started at least 13 games in 2010-11 and will form the nucleus around which Coach Thompson rebuild the team. If the Hoyas had an abundance of guard/wings last season, the emphasis should shift to the inside this season as four of the five members of the freshmen class, Otto Porter (6-9, 200 lbs, small forward), Mikael Hopkins (6-8, 210 lbs, center), Jabril Trawick (6-5, 200 lbs, off guard), Tyler Adams (6-9, 255 lbs, center) and Greg Whittington (6-8, 195 lbs, power forward), are forwards or centers. Lacking a point guard in the cohort, the staff will most likely tab Markel Starks, who appeared in 30 games last season, for the job. Expect the back court rotation to include Starks, Clark and Trawick. Expect the freshmen to push senior Henry Sims 14.0 MPG, 3.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG) for time in the low post.

The Maui Invitational will test Georgetown early as the Hoyas face (after a "campus" game versus UNC-Greensboro) Kansas in the opening round in Hawaii. The second round will be either UCLA or Chaminade, with a third round opponent one of Duke, Michigan, Memphis or Tennessee. Coach Thompson's squad travels to Birmingham to face SEC contender Alabama as part of the Big East/SEC Challenge December 1. The Maui Invitational, Alabama and a late December meeting with Memphis (a possible rare second meeting given the Tigers are also in the Maui field) are the Hoyas' toughest out of conference matches. One or two losses are possible, but should the Hoyas be undefeated going into their conference opening game with Louisville (in Louisville) the game will most likely be billed as a Top 15 meeting. Mirror games with Marquette, Providence and St. John's should be a relief given the rebuilding job Coach Thompson faces. A 3-3 record would be a disappointment, with worse a problem, as the Hoyas travel to Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and West Virginia for games this season. Out of a home slate of Cincinnati, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Rutgers, South Florida and Villanova (plus the three mirrors) the Hoyas will have to do better than 4-5 for any chance at a 9-9 (or better) conference record. If past is prelude, look at the number of losses Georgetown has sustained through January 31. If it is four or fewer, then double it (again plus/minus one) for February.

Seton Hall-- If He Knew Then What He Knows Now?
The former Iona coach sustained the two month loss of All-Conference player Jeremy Hazell and still managed to finish with a 13-17 record (7-11 in conference) on the strength of a 5-6 close that included wins over Syracuse, St. John's and Marquette. The conference welcomed four new coaches into their ranks last season, and Willard coached his charges to a Big East Tournament seed higher than two of them. The Pirates return 46.2% of their 2010-11 minutes and 45.7% of their scoring, nearly 10% below the conference-wide average. Worse, the staff has no transfers (or JUCOs...) available this season. The staff does welcome a five man, point guard-heavy freshman class, the most highly regarded of whom, Aaron Cosby (6-2, 195 lbs) out of Northfield-Mt. Hermon in Massachusetts, will no doubt have an opportunity to play this season, whether as the off guard to senior Jordan Theodore (30.2 MPG, 11.0 PPG, 4.4 APG), or at the point while Theodore roams and looks for his shot. Starting #4 Herb Pope (27.1 MPG, 9.8 PPG, 7.9 RPG) also returns, hopefully 100% recovered from the 2010 off season hospitalization that seemed to impair him through the 2010-11 season. Sophomore wing forward Fuquan Edwin (24.7 MPG, 7.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG) who received a baptism of fire last season, is a third returnee with starting experience. Look for sophomore forwards Patrik Auda and Aaron Geramipoor to assume larger roles in the rotation this season. Auda, a Euro-style #4, averaged 15 minutes in 24 appearances last season, as he converted three point attempts at a 40% clip in a very limited offensive role for Willard's squad. Freshman forward Brandon Mobley is rehabbing from a summer league injury (and surgery), while Kevin Johnson (6-9, 240 lbs) will see time at the #4/#5. Look for the freshmen guards Freddie Wilson (6-2, 175 lbs), Sean Grennan (6-2, 170 lbs) and Haralds Karlis (6-5, 185 lbs) to see some rotation time early. Karlis, like Geramipoor and Auda, is a graduate of the Canarias Basketball Academy.

The Pirates have an early test at the Charleston Classic, an early season invitational set with a surprisingly (if Dan Hanner's projections are accurate) even field. LSU, Northwestern and Georgia Tech are the "name" teams, but Saint Joseph's, Tulsa and VCU (Seton Hall's first opponent) and the Pirates have good chances to advance to the finals. Three wins against that field would be an early lift to the program. Auburn (Big East/SEC Challenge), Wake Forest and a road game at Dayton round out the out of conference schedule. A more experienced Dayton squad beat the Pirates at the Rock last December, but with a rookie coach and a depleted squad, the Pirates have a chance to bolster their RPI if they can take that game. Seton Hall drew Connecticut, DePaul and Rutgers (a traditional rival) as their mirror opponents in conference play, a combination that they could go 4-2, but should do no worse than 3-3. 2-4 should be cause for worry if the Pirates want to improve on the 7-11 they posted last season. A home slate of Louisville, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame will be tough, but the Pirates should have chances against Georgetown, St. John's and West Virginia. Georgetown and St. John's could be tie breakers. With a road slate that includes Cincinnati, Marquette, Providence, South Florida, Syracuse and Villanova, the Pirates are going to need at least three wins, especially if they log a 2-4 record versus the mirrors.

St. John's -- The Morning After
Steve Lavin and his staff put their biggest question ("The Players or the Plays?") to rest last season. No matter what happens this season, Red Storm fans will know things can and will improve as the very good (but given October news, not excellent-to-epic) freshman class matures. 2011-12 however is going to be a tough year for the Johnnies. Note the adjective was "tough", not "ugly". At 2.68 years last season Coach Lavin's squad was ranked #3 in Division I for experience. Of the 6,625 minutes played last season, St. John's returns 319 (No, that's not a typo...) of them this season. That is 4.8% of the 2010-11 minutes. Which should rank the Johnnies somewhere around #340 (out of #345) this season. 4.8% is better than the 3.7% scoring they return -- Malik Stith is a pass-first point guard. Coach Lavin has two JUCOs, center God'sgift Achiuwa, a 6-8, 230 pound Nigerian by way of Erie CC and lead guard Nurideen Lindsey, a 6-3 Philly guard bound for La Salle out of high school who did a year at Redlands CC in Oklahoma before heading back East (and to St. John's). Lindsey and Achiuwa (and Stith) is a start, but the rest of the rotation (and starting lineup!) will be filled out with freshmen. If the Johnnies' exhibition games are predictive, look for Stith and Lindsey to start in the back court, along with freshman D'Angelo Harrison, a 6-3, 202 pound guard out of Texas, 6-8 wing Maurice Harkless (a New York City native who prepped at South Kent in Connecticut) and Achiuwa to man the front court. 6-6 wing Detroit native Sir'Dominic Pointer a distinct possibility to start should the staff want a four guard look. Freshman Phil Greene, a 6-2 Chicagoan and returning junior Jamil White, a walk on last season who played five minutes will round out the back court rotation. Coach Steve Lavin was diagnosed with prostate cancer, and after undergoing surgery in late October, will pursue a course of post surgery treatment and rehabilitation before returning to the bench. Assistant Coach Mike Dunlap directs the program during Lavin's recuperation. Three late September casualties of the NCAA clearing house, Amir Garrett (a 6-6, 190 pound #3), Norvel Pelle (a 6-10 200 pound #4) and Jakarr Sampson (a 6-8, 200 pound small forward) were removed from the roster admist some confusion about their relationship with St. John's going forward. The program has eight scholarship players (plus two walk ons -- Gerard Rivers and Sam Sealy-James, a 6-8 195 pound forward) available for the exhibition games and the season. A quick look at the exhibition box scores suggests the offense will be Lindsey and whoever is hot that night. The transfer took >30% of the possessions and about 24% shots when he was on the court (with >82% of the minutes at point, that's a lot of time...) with Harrison and Harkless as the clear second and third options. The rotation of Achuiwa, Lindsey, Harkless, Harrison and Boothe took at least 65% of the minutes in both exhibitions (St. Mary's of Maryland and C.W. Post), with Pointer taking 65% of the minutes in the second game. Lindsey, tabbed as a potential NBA'er by virtually every coach who has mentored him, was inefficient with his possessions, logging sub 1.00 point per possession in each of the two outings. It won't get better as the competition improves.

The Johnnies will face Arizona and then either Texas A&M or Mississippi State in the 2K Coaches versus Cancer Classic, the first of two BCS-level tests they face in the out of conference schedule, to be followed by Big East/SEC Challengeinduced trip to Kentucky in early December. A late December loss to cross town rival Fordham proved to be a fluke last season. A similar result this season will be a harbinger. Mirrors with Cincinnati, DePaul and Georgetown could yield a record as good as 5-1 or as poor as 1-5 (where Pomeroy projects them right now). 2-4 is a more reasonable projection. The home slate (mirrors excluded) of Louisville, Notre Dame, Providence, Syracuse, Villanova and West Virginia will not yield more than two wins, while the road slate (again mirrors excluded), Connecticut, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Seton Hall and South Florida would probably have been more useful as the home slate this season. The most favorable opponents, Rutgers, Seton Hall and South Florida would be easier to take at the Garden (or the Carnesseca), but on the road the Johnnies may be able to grab one (two maybe?) wins. Six or seven conference wins might be the Red Storm's ceiling this season. With a minimum number necessary to run full practices available, the roster has to be a concern going forward.

Villanova -- Funky February, part 2
I decided to run the same efficiency numbers (offensive points per possession, defensive points per possession, difference margin -- by month -- for the two seasons since Villanova's Final Four appearance. Won/loss totals are interesting (and more dramatic than Georgetown -- see above), but the efficiency margin and decline of the defense are the eye catching numbers here...

		Efficiency
Month	Pace	Off	Def	Margin	PWP
November	71.7	1.112	0.866	0.251	0.949
December	70.8	1.150	0.930	0.220	0.920
January	70.2	1.148	1.022	0.127	0.793
February	68.5	1.072	1.073	-0.002	0.496
March	62.5	1.021	1.075	-0.054	0.355

I added the pace (possessions per 40 minute game) for the 'Cats, as the number of possessions seemed to correlate with the Pythagorean Winning Percentage. The two values actually track very closely -- as the number of possessions declines, Villanova becomes less dominent on either side of the ball. The specific reasons for this are not necessarily "in the numbers", but while fans have noticed the decline in offensive efficiency, the decline in defense tends to have been more pronounced. Player injuries or fatigue? Midseason modifications in offensive strategy (dubbed "The Burn" given the tendency to delay the offensive set until well into the shot clock)? Loss of cohesion or confidence? All have been cited at one point or another over the past two seasons. The cause may not be clear, but the effect is crystal.

Coach Wright will work with 44.1% of last season's minutes and 43.5% of the points scored. Irrespective of the late season collapse, the Class of 2011 graduated three 1,500 point scorers, the first in the program's 91 year history. On the heels of 2,200 point scorer Scottie Reynold's graduation in 2010, the three players (all juniors) who have logged at least one start over the past two seasons have enormous roles to fill. The Wildcats have the outside and inside set with Maalik Wayns (30.1 MPG, 13.8 PPG, 4.5 APG) manning the point and Mouphtaou Yarou (24.1 MPG, 8.4 PPG, 7.1 RPG) anchoring the low post. 6-6 wing Dom Cheek (19.4 MPG, 5.6 PPG, 3.4 RPG) started two games in Corey Stokes' absence and will start at the #2 or #3 this season, depending on how big the staff wants to go. The last two starting spots will most likely go to sophomore James Bell (9.1 MPG, 2.4 PPG, 1.3 RPG) a 6-6 wing, dubbed a "defensive specialist" by U19 coach Paul Hewitt. Bell started all of the nine games in the U19 World Championship Tournament last summer, averaging over 16 minutes per game. He will most likely take the other wing spot alongside Cheek. Red shirt freshman JayVaughn Pinkston, a (6-7, 260 lbs) physical foward will most likely start at the power forward spot. Though rusty and undersized, Pinkston has the footwork skills to cover smaller players and after some conditioning, the muscle and bounce to defend larger forwards. Four freshmen, Tyronne Johnson (6-3, 185 pounds, point guard), Darrun Hilliard (6-6, 205 pounds, off guard), Achraf Yacoubou (6-4, 210 pounds, off guard) and Markus Kennedy (6-9, 260 pounds, power forward), along with returning junior #4/#5 Maurice Sutton (10.6 MPG, 2.4 PPG, 2.3 RPG) should, given the short bench, draw a good deal of playing time this season. Expect Sutton and Kennedy to see regular minutes in a low post rotation, while Johnson will spell Wayns, and either Hilliard and/or Yacoubou backing up Bell and Cheek. Ideally a program will bring in a consistent 3-4 players each season, but due largely to transfers (injury/discipline and an early departure in 2009), the incoming classes have varied widely, ranging from one (last season) to five (this season; four freshmen plus Pinkston). The squad this season has no seniors, four juniors, one sophomore and five freshmen.

The Wildcats will face Cincinnati, Marquette and South Florida as mirror opponents, a draw that would have been popular had it happened in either of the last two seasons...this season, not so much. A 3-3 record (sweep USF -- who ironically eliminated the Wildcats in the Big East Tournament last March -- and split with either the Bearcats or Warriors) would seem reasonable, though Ken Pomeroy projects a 4-2 outcome (sweep USF and split with Marquette & Cincinnati). A home slate that includes (minus the mirrors) Connecticut (the third consecutive President's Day meeting between the two rivals), DePual, Notre Dame, Providence, Seton Hall and Syracuse should yield no worse than a 3-3 record. 4-2 would be very good news (and suggest the 'Cats have solved their Funky February problem). The road slate includes stops at Georgetown, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Rutgers (ahhh revenge!), St. John's and West Virginia could produce a record as ugly as 1-5. Going 3-3 would be very good news (and give the 'Cats a win ceiling of 11), but given the Wildcats' historic difficulties winning at the Peterson Center (Pittsburgh), at Louisville and in the Colusium (West Virginia), accounting for the unpredicted loss yields a 2-4 record.

Most Likely to...(and why):
To Move Up a Quartile... -- Either Georgetown or Villanova. Their game (scheduled for the Verizon Center on February 25) may well decide who moves up and who "stays down" in a match that will probably become a comparison game for the Selection Committee. Both teams face replacing program mainstays this season, and who makes progress throughout the conference season will most likely take the game.

Move Down a Quartile... -- St. John's. The Johnnies are really, really thin, relying on walk ons to assemble enough bodies to scrimmage in practice. Big Apple Buckets optimism aside, the Big East is not the Pac-12; there will not be many off nights in the conference, as every team has physical forward/centers. Even if either Pelle or Garrett qualify for the spring (I am not holding out hope on this), how effective would either be without the requisite conditioning and game experience? Injury at this level (virtually every team has taken an injury hit or two this off season) is too common, and for the Johnnies, it could turn a "tough" season into an "ugly" one.

2011-12 Preview -- Fourth Quartile

2011-11-08T01:05:00.000-05:00

A Casting Call...
The four teams that make up the Big East's bottom quartile share a common feature -- they have talent, just not enough of it. DePaul, Providence and Rutgers have each replaced their head coach and staff within the last 18 months. South Florida will most likely follow suit next spring. The Demons, Friars and Knights were in various stages of decomposition when their Athletic Directors forced a change of direction. DePaul and Rutgers are in Year Two of their rebuilding process, while Ed Cooley is just getting started. The challenges have to be daunting.

	2010-11 Season
	Overall			Big East			BET	Post
Team	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	Seed	Seasn?
DePaul	7	24	0.226	1	17	0.056	16	BET
Providence	15	17	0.468	4	14	0.222	14	BET
Rutgers	15	17	0.468	5	13	0.278	13	BET
South Florida	10	23	0.303	3	15	0.167	15	BET

Together these teams matched Pittsburgh's conference win total. Lacking 11 bid-worthy teams this season, expect these four to do better in the win column...by a combined two or three wins.

Team Thumbnail (in 300 words...more or less)
DePaul -- The Purnell Era, Year Two
Coach Oliver Purnell has a pair of solid stars in Cleveland Melvin and Brandon Young. Those two, both sophomores, will be the pillars around which he will rebuild the Blue Demon program. Cleveland (14.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg) who was named Conference Rookie of the Year last March, will anchor the front court, while Young (30.4 mpg, 12.6 ppg, 3.7 apg), who made the All-Rookie First Team along with Cleveland, will man the point and anchor the back court. Returning guards/wings starting off guard Jeremiah Kelly, Edwind McGhee and Joe Belcaster will be joined by 5-11 JUCO Worrel Clahar and freshmen Charles McKinney (a 6-3 local from suburban Evanston who prepped at Quality Education Academy in North Carolina). Baltimore native Macari Brooks was a NCAA Clearing House casualty. Front court veterans include 2010-10 starting center Krys Faber and sophomore forward Moses Morgan. Junior Tony Freeland will red shirt this season after surgey to stabilize his right shoulder. Joining Freeland as a red shirt will be Montray Clemons, another Baltimore native who ruptured the patellar tendon in his left knee in late October. Entering freshmen Jamee Crockett and transfer Donnavan Kirk (when he is eligible after the Autumn quarter) will round out the forward rotation, with freshman Derrell Robertson pushing Fabers in the low post. In the wake of the roster shakeup (Clemons, Freeland and Macari), DePaul's new basektball blog, Under the El posted a a breakdown of Purnell's rotations for his last three Clemson teams to assess whether DePaul's suddenly shallow(er) rotation would torpedoe Purnell's timetable to implement his high-pressure offensive and defensive system. There are (still) enough bodies, but are they athletic and conditioned well enough to withstand an 18 game conference schedule?

The Blue Demons' 2010-11 offensive efficiency (points per possession scored) was low (about 0.95), but they turned in an especially porous defensive efficiency (opponents' points per possession) of 1.17 in conference play. Handing out the highest points per possession in conference play did not by itself condemn the Demons to their 1-17 record, but the resulting difference margin (offensive efficiency - defensive efficiency) was, at -0.214, nearly double that of the next nearest conference team. Purnell's charges will have to work on field goal defense (cut into their opponents' conversion rate) and turnovers (get them up, something Clahar was particularly adept at doing) this season. The thin rotation may be especially vulnerable at the end of the season when DePaul will host Providence and Seton Hall within a fortnight to close out the regular season. The Friars and Pirates (along with guests St. John's and South Florida near midseason) are the best candidates for wins. Will the Blue Demons have enough gas in the tank to take them? Progress in 2011-12 will be measured in a smaller efficiency margin (and one or two additional wins).

Providence -- Ed Cooley! Come on Down!!!
The Keno Davis Era ended on an especially flat 1-8 note. Providence Athletic Director Robert Callahan, with a much clearer idea of what he wanted as a head coach, turned to Rhode Island native Ed Cooley, a five year veteran head coach who resurrected the Fairfield program, and closed out this search three weeks earlier than his 2008 search (which brought Davis to Friartown in the first place). Without Marshon Brooks to supply 788 points this season, where will Cooley turn for the points? The best of the lot is returning guard Vincent Council, with guards Bryce Cotton and Gerard Coleman providing second and third scoring options. The roster lists 13 players, but of the 11 who checked into the Assumption College exhibition game, five shot a combined 0-3 with none of those five, despite averaging over seven minutes apiece, attempting more than a single field goal. The shallow rotation was even shallower with the news that junior forward Kadeem Batts was a DNP versus Assumption -- coach's decision (indefinite suspension it turns out, that could run into the regular season) -- and freshman guard Kiwi Gardner was ruled academically ineligible by the NCAA (Providence will appeal). True Coach Cooley decided to go with a revamped front court, starting two freshmen, red shirt Brice Kofane (6-8, 205 lbs) and LaDontae Henton (6-6, 220 lbs, Lansing, MI) and bringing junior Bilal Dixon in off the bench (Dixon scored 13 points in 22 minutes, on a very efficient 71.4% eFG% and 1.32 PPWS). But the overall offensive efficiency, an anemic 0.97 points per possession (PPP), was masked by the 13 point winning margin (64-51). The other disquieting note was rebounding, Coach Cooley's squad grabbed a meager 25% of their own misses, while Assumption was able to take a second chance shot on 35% of their misses. Those numbers will kill Providence in conference play.

The South Padre Island Invitational field will pit both Iowa State and Northern Iowa against the Friars could be cause for Thanksgiving (and optimism) should Providence sweep those two on a neutral court. Most of Providence's regional opponents (Holy Cross, Rhode Island and Boston College) will come to the Dunkin Donuts Center this season, an advantage for the home team to be sure. Drawing South Florida as a mirror is small consolation for the Syracuse/Georgetown combination (will the Hoyas hold up on the road?). Hosting Rutger and Seton Hall may offer the best possibilities for additional wins if the Friars' lack of depth is not exposed by early February.

Rutgers -- Meet the All New Scarlet Knights
Second year coach Mike Rice recruited a whopping seven man class, which means the 2011-12 season should begin a total makeover process for the Scalet Knight program. The changes begin appropriately enough at the #1, with newcomers Myles Mack, a 5-9 All-State player out of St. Anthony's will take the point, probably backed by senior Tyree Graham, a JUCO who took a red shirt last season. Sophomore Austin Carroll will be pushed at the off guard by newcomer combo guards Eli Carter, a 6-2 prep who committed to St. Bonaventure before taking a fifth year at Brewster Academy in New Hampshire, and Jerome Seagears (6-3, 175 lbs), who prepped in Maryland. The front court may have to wait a while for the "names" to make an impact. Kadeem Jack enrolled last January and took a red shirt to practice with the team. Jack was injured just before fall practice and after surgery to his right foot will require 3-4 months of rehabilitation. Kansas State transfer Wally Judge (6-9, 245 lbs) will sit this season per NCAA transfer rules. In the meantime, returning sophomore Gilvydas Biruta, an All-Conference Rookie Teamer from 2011 will make due with junior Austin Johnson and a pair of freshmen, 6-8 Derrick Randall and 6-9 Greg Lewis. Look for freshman Malick Kone, an athletic 6-5 guard/forward to join a wing rotation that includes junior All-Conference prospect (and most likely starter) Dane Miller and sophomore Mike Poole. Rice has bodies this season, Carter or Seagears can move over to the point should Mack falter; Lewis and Randall will pick up minutes they would not get if Jack and Judge were available. The learning curve may prove to be the squad's greatest challenge. The Scarlet Knights' 2011 conference defense was porous, allowing 1.08 points per possession. Shot defense (a generous 49.7% eFG%), rebounding (allowed opponents a 35.5% rate on their missed field goals) and fouling (51.1% FTA/FGA) the three areas that need improvement.

The Cancun Challenge slate facing Rutgers is hardly overpowering. Illinois State is projected to finish in the MVC's lower division, while Illinois and Richmond are a year away from their peaks. Losing to any of the three (or two of the three) would suggest the Scarlet Knights will be on track to settle into the bottom of the conference. Florida will be the Scarlet Knights' marquee out of conference matchup. Beating the Gators would be great, but keeping it close is more realistic. Rutgers drew Seton Hall, Notre Dame and West Virginia as mirror opponents; a 3-3 record would be great, a sign the Knights may well finish out of the bottom quartile, but 2-4 or 1-5 might be more realistic. 0-6 would be a strong suggestion Rice's team is more than a year away. Among the conference visitors this season, DePaul, Villanova and St. John's offer the best opportunities for a win. Among the road conference opponents, South Florida and Providence are possible wins. To get out of the bottom quartile, Rutgers would need at least 5-6 wins. One or two from the mirrors, combined with two or three from the home slate would still require the Knights to take a game or two on the road...a very narrow margin of error.

South Florida -- the Perpetual Rebuilding Project
Counting the additions to the 2011-12 roster, Coach Stan Heath has coached 38 players in his five years in Tampa. Of the 38 players (a thirty-ninth, Brock Martino is a transfer from South Alabama who will sit this season), 19 played a single season for Heath, the average "stay" being 1.7 seasons. This season's squad will average 2.0 seasons with the coach, but even chalking the eight who left or finished after Heath's first season (three graduated or exhausted their eligibility and five transferred) to "housekeeping", that still leaves 30 players in four seasons, or just under eight new players each season, way too much turnover to establish a stable program. Of the 13 players on this season's roster, six were JUCO (three) or transfers (three). The Bulls' front court will feature two returning starters from last season, August Gilchrist (28.4 MPG, 14.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG) and Ron Anderson (22.5 MPG, 7.0 PPG, 6.4 RPG), both transfers. Gilchrist who sat a year at (and never suited up for) Maryland, will team with Anderson who transferred in from Kansas State after one season. This is the last season for both. Junior Toarlyn Fitzpatrick (14.2 MPG, 4.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG) will rejoin the rotation. Newcomers include Arizona State transfer Victor Rudd and freshman center Jordan Omogbehin. Senior (two year walkon) Alberto Damour will see a few minutes. A rotation of returners, Jawanza Poland (27.0 MPG, 9.1 PPG, 1.06 SPG), Shaun Noriega (16.5 MPG, 6.4 PPG) and Hugh Robertson (30.1 MPG, 8.3 PPG, 1.8 APG) will man the wings with help from newcomer Victor Rudd from Arizona State. Look for JUCO Blake Nash (6-0, 185 lbs) to get first crack at the point, with bench player LaVonte Dority and true freshman Anthony Collins (6-1, 175 lbs) to back him up. Heath has to solve problems on both sides of the ball. While the defense yielded a horrible 1.09 points per possession, the offense countered with a very anemic 0.97 points per possession of it's own. Heath needs points on offense, as their 46.0% eFG% conversion rate in conference play would suggest. The Bulls must also staunch a 22.5% turnover rate in conference play was the highest in the conference. A good point guard should help, so if Nash struggles, the Bulls may well flounder.

An out of conference slate that includes a VCU rematch (in Richmond, VA) and three road games, two with power conference opponents (Kansas and Auburn) and non-BCS Southern Mississippi of CUSA, is not overwhelming, but should offer the Bulls faithful a chance to see their team compete against solid competition. VCU and Kansas should contend for conference honors (and may well return to the NCAAs), while Auburn and Southern Mississippi will finish in lower halves of their respective conferences. Beating the Jayhawks or Rams would force a re-evaluation, but losing to the Tigers or Golden Eagles could foretell a pattern that should play out in the conference season. The Bulls drew Pittsburgh, Providence and Villanova as conference mirrors which, Pitt aside, could have raised interesting prospects for Heath's program. 0-6 would be a disaster, but 2-4 might be the ceiling, with the Bulls dropping two to the Panthers, and either splitting with the other two or sweeping one of Villanova or Providence. 1-5 is a real possibility, especially if South Florida cannot stop the bleeding on either side of the ball. Among the conference teams they host, the best opportunities for wins would include Rutgres, Seton Hall and St. John's, all of whom they see before the third week in January. Picking through the road slate, DePaul offers the best opportunity for a win, which suggests a ceiling of maybe five conference wins. The Bulls could collect fewer.

Most Likely to...(and why):
Move up a Quartile -- Rutgers. Coach Rice's recruiting has been energetic, but few would know it given the job (and headlines) done by St. John's Steve Lavin. If the veterans produce and the freshmen get with the program (and do not develop a case of freshman fatigue), look for the Scarlet Knights to surprise a few teams and close out with a florish. The greatest uncertainty continues to be depth and whether the players they have can be competitive in the Big East Conference.

To Draw #16 Seed... -- South Florida It is tough to win when the roster turns overs as much as the Bulls' has the past few seasons. Coach Heath's tendency to favor JUCOs and transfers (too often problem children...) over freshmen trades quick wins for a stable roster that offered freshmen players the opportunity to develop.

Mia Culpa, Mia Maxima Culpa, 2011

2011-11-07T02:13:00.000-05:00

Confessions & Observations...
I am a bit late with the previews this time around. The preseason was pre-empted with news and speculation about team movements among three BCS conferences and two-to-three nonBCS conferences, a process that seemed at times to take all of the oxygen out of the room. An especially distressing development as I was again reminded of the miniscule impact basketball had on the calculus of movement. Time to take a quick review of last season...

	2010-11 Actual					Proj.
Team	W	L	Pct	Seed	Qtl	Qtl
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611	7	2	3
Connecticut	9	9	0.500	9	3	3
DePaul	1	17	0.056	16	4	4
Georgetown	10	8	0.556	8	2	1
Louisville	12	6	0.667	4	1	2
Marquette	9	9	0.500	11	3	2
Notre Dame	14	4	0.778	2	1	3
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833	1	1	1
Providence	4	14	0.222	14	4	4
Rutgers	5	13	0.278	13	4	4
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389	12	3	3
St. John's	12	6	0.667	5	2	2
South Florida	3	15	0.167	15	4	4
Syracuse	12	6	0.667	4	1	2
Villanova	9	9	0.500	10	3	1
West Virginia	11	7	0.611	6	2	1

Through a Looking Glass Darkly...
Ugh. It was a great season for the conference, as the Big East pulled down 11 invitaitons to the NCAA post season tournament, a record high for a conference, and with 68.8% of the members drawing bids, a record for post season money earned. Too bad the conference struggled in tournament play, moving only Marquette as far as the Sweet Sixteen last March. Though talk throughout the season centered on the notion that 11 bids were possible, I was a bit late to the party. I believed that the teams not invited would have to absorb a large number of losses (to insure most of the conference would have at least a 0.500 record) while those likely to draw the bids would have to split amongst themselves. Insuring the "perfect storm", the balance of Division I would have to relatively poor by comparison. It seems Division I was accomodating (unexpectedly) -- consider Butler, despite an unsteady 3-4 start that included a loss to Evansville, nevertheless ran to a consecutive Final Four, upsetting Pittsburgh before falling to #9 ranked (in conference play) Connecticut in the Championship Game. Within the Big East, sorting out the teams doomed to struggle was far easier than identifying the teams that would succeed.

Misses Mostly...
If I predicted the fourth quartile to the team, I missed pretty badly elsewhere. Of the four teams projected for first quartile finishes (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Villanova and West Virginia), two (Georgetown and West Virgnia) finished in the second quartile while one (sigh, Villanova) fell all the way to the third quartile. I did manage to identify one second quartile finisher correctly (Cincinnati, though I would not have guessed they would finish higher than Villanova) to go with two third quartile finishers (Connecticut! -- right answer, wrong reason -- and Seton Hall). Notre Dame, a third quartile team in my projection ran to an excellent 14-4 record to finish #2, good for a BET bye seed and first quartile finish. I correctly placed half of the conference (within a quartile), but missed by two quartiles on two teams. Ouch.

What's Next
I decided to revert to a quartile-by-quartile preview, providing thumbnails of each team projected to finish in that specific quartile. The quartile previews will be posted over the course of this week. Other projects took time normally devoted to preparing the team-by-team previews, and I anticipated the addition of Texas Christian would preclude another oppportunity to preview the conference by fourths. Correct answer again, but for the wrong reason.

Dallas Ouano, JayVaughn Pinkston Make BIAH's All...Team!

2011-10-24T12:45:00.001-04:00

The bloggers over at the Ballin' is a Habit blog have recognized Villanova guard Dallas Ouano and forward JayVaughn Pinkston to their All Teams this season. Dallas joins Denver Holmes from Evansville, fellow Big East player Cleveland Melvin from DePaul, Conroy Baltimore from Lehigh and Montreal Scott from Prairie View A&M. Pinkston was named to the All-Make-Your-Mind First Team, along with Brockeith Payne from Utah State, Chrishawn Hopkins from Butler, Kennesaw State's Markeith Cummings and Drake's RayVonte Rice. The Villanovans were members of a 256 Division I player contingent who were named to 48 separate All-Name Teams (along with a handful of Honorable Mentions) by BIAH.

Congratulations to Dallas and JayVaughn

Signs of the Offseason 2011-08 -- Conference Realignment: Big East Agonistes

2011-10-09T19:25:00.000-04:00

We Have All Been Here Before?
New York Times sportswriter Pete Thamel reports that the Big East Presidents will hold a conference call on Monday October 10. This will be the second conference call in three days and the third time in eight days that the Presidents of the 14 remaining schools have huddled over the future of the conference. Thamel suggests the agenda will include raising the exit fee. As reported by VUHoops.com, the fees will settle "...in the 10 million dollar range". Neither VUHoops.com nor Thamel anticipate that any invitations will be acted on during the meeting. Denver Post sportswriter Mark Kiszla reports that Air Force is preparing to move to the Big East, the announcement scheduled for (possibly) the end of October. The Falcons will play football in the Big East while moving their other sports (basketball included) to the Missouri Valley Conference.

Here and There...
Tom Luicci of the Star Ledger is reporting that the Big East, in addition to the military academies, is also courting Boise State of the Mountain West Conference. The Broncos could help the conference retain their automatic qualifier status in the BCS system. Like the Air Force, the Boise State invitation is for football only. The Broncos would have to find a home for their other sports. Unconfirmed by Boise State, file this one among the Rumors for the time being.

In the immediate aftermath of Syracuse and Pittsbughs announced exit Connecticut President Susan Herbst seemed more involved in pursuing an exit strategy rather than raising the conference standard and rallying the disheartened among the Big East members. That task was left to Louisville AD Tom Jurich and basketball coach Rick Pitino. The very public lobbying of the Atlantic Coast Conference conducted by several Connecticut newspapers came to nothing when ACC Commissioner John Swofford indicated in September 28 interviews that the conference is "...very settled" at 14 members. Boston Globe sportswriter Mark Blaudschun offered another explanation for the ACC expansion today however. While virtually all of the movement for the past two years has been to build revenue streams on football programs, Blaudschun suggested the ACC move to snap up Syracuse and Pittsburgh was motivated by basketball, and the Big Easts recent surge to the head of the class. Raiding the Big East to grab two of the conferences most successful basketball programs was, Blaudschun reports, was meant to apease basketball powers North Carolina and Duke, both of whom felt the 2004 raid which brought Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College into the conference further diluted the basketball side of their conference. Connecticut Blaudschun asserts, was left out at the behest of regional rival Boston College who was still unhappy at the lawsuits filed when the Eagles left in 2004. What goes around comes around...

H/T: VUHoops.com & Pete Thamel

Signs of the Offseason 2011-07 -- Conference Realignment: "Pick up on Line #1 -- Its the Big East"

2011-10-07T11:06:00.001-04:00

Johnny We Hardly Knew Ye
New York Times sportswriter Pete Thamel reports that in the wake of Texas Christian University's decision to accept an invitation to join the Big 12 Conference, Big East league Presidents will conference call this morning to sort out their options. Topping the makeshift agenda will be who to invite to join in an effort to bolster the football side of the house. With the departures of Syracuse and Pittsburgh as of last month, combined with the non-arrival of TCU, the Big East football conference is down to six members, not enough to sustain their AQ status at the BCS table. While there is no confirmation that invitations will be extended today (Commissioner John Marinatto was directed to move quickly on this last Sunday), Cincinnati Enquirer sportswriter Bill Koch reports that the Presidents will vote to extend invitations to the University of Central Florida and East Carolina University today.

But What About?...
The Nova Blog reports that while Temple and Villanova continue to be mentioned as possible candidates, there is no indication that either will be addressed by the meeting.

H/T: The Nova Blog & Voodo Five

Maalik Wayns Named to Wooden Award Watch List

2011-10-03T18:17:00.000-04:00

The Bob Cousy Award
The Villanova Athletic Department and the Los Angeles Athletic Club made simultaneous announcements this afternoon that junior point guard Maalik Wayns had been named to the 2011 Preseason Wooden Award Watch List. Maalik follows in the footsteps of Corey Fisher, Scottie Reynolds and Randy Foye, Villanova guards who have been named to the Watch List in previous preseasons. A total of 10 players (two each from Connecticut and Syracuse) were named to the list released earlier this afternoon. They include...

Player	Pos	Class	School
Jeremy Lamb	F	So	Connecticut
Alex Oriakhi	F/C	Jr	Connecticut
Peyton Siva	PG	Jr	Louisville
Darius Johnson-Odom	G	Sr	Marquette
Tim Abromaitis	F	GS	Notre Dame
Ashton Gibbs	PG	Sr	Pittsburgh
Scoop Jardine	G	Sr	Syracuse
Kris Joseph	F	Jr	Syracuse
Maalik Wayns	PG	Sr	Villanova
Kevin Jones	F	Sr	West Virginia

The Big East contingent is, as usual, contains a large portion of senior & 5th year nominees. Abromaitis, along with DJO, Gibbs, Jardine, Jones, Siva and Joseph have all been named to conference teams (or honorable mentions) in 2011. Jeremy Lamb, named to the conference Rookie Team, played on the U19 team that competed for the U19 World Championship last summer in Latvia.

Other Nominees of Interest
From the Atlantic-10 Conference, Andrew Nicholson (St. Bonaventure) and Tu Holloway (Xavier) were also recognized.

Congratulations Maalik
& all of the nominees

Signs of the Offseason 2011-06 -- Conference Realignment: Sunday Afternoon in Washington

2011-10-02T16:52:00.001-04:00

They Were Not There for the Fall Foliage
The Hartford Courant sports writer Dom Amore has been sending out tweets since 10:00 am this morning about the Big East President's meeting in Washington. After a fortnight that started with the SEC and Texas A∓M formalizing their new relationship and rumors surrounding the two Oklahoma schools, along with Texas and Texas Tech in negotiations with the Pac-12 conference, the conference realignment shifted dramatically east last weekend with the simultaneous announcements by the Atlantic Coast Conference, Pittsburgh and Syracuse that the Panthers and Orange had applied to and been accepted by the ACC for full membership. The conference, staggered by the exit of a second charter member along with a 30 year, multiple conference title holder in basketball tried an initial, football members only meeting in New York City. That the Tuesday night meeting ended in chaos and acrimony strengthened a feeling throughout Division 1 athletics that the conference was taking a last gasp as a player in the BCS football mix. Amore reported (tweeted) that the conference meeting broke up after the projected 3:00 pm deadline. He added the following tweets as part of a post meeting press conference with Big East Commissioner John Marinatto....

1. West Virginia's President did not storm out, as had been rumored around 2pm.
2. BE Presidents voted unanimously to pursue discussions with schools that have expressed interest in joining.
3. Reference to football membership -- "military academies fit the profile".
4. UConn's President Susan Herbst was "terrific in the meeting" and promised to work to strengthen the conference.
5. Presidents will consider bylaws changes to "strengthen the conference" -- up the exit fees.
6. Texas Christian University's President attended and reaffirmed their intent to join the conference next season. According to Commissioner Marinatto, TCU "never wavered" during a very stressful week.

As an observation Amore added that Marinetto apparently felt this was a more positive meeting than the one Tuesday in NYC. "The shock has worn off". Amore followed wth a blog post that indicated the focus for new members will be football playing schools (membership not clear), with a profile that values "high academic standards and strong athletic performance,".

What About Villanova?!
The tweets and Commissioner Marinatto's comments suggest that no invitations were extended today. This leaves fans of Villanova, Temple, East Carolina, Central Florida and Memphis in something of a fog. The Big East Conference issued an official press release shortly after Commissioner Marinatto's press conference ended. Interesting to note that the Presidents were unanimous in authorizing "the Commissioner to aggressively pursue discussions with a select number of institutions that have indicated a strong interest in joining the BIG EAST Conference..." but were not unanimous about "...considering changes to the Conference’s governing bylaws to further solidify the membership of the Conference...". A strong ongoing commitment to the conference is crucial as the conference negotiates with the Air Force and Navy about football-only membership. Those two, rumored to be close to throwing in with the Big East in the days before Syracuse and Pittsburgh defected, were said to be wavering about a membership invitation due to the chaos of the past week. Hopefully the wording will give Commissioner Marinatto the authority to push ahead and successfully close out negotiations with the service academies while working through applications submitted by other institutions.

Roster Moves --- Eve of Fall Practice

2011-09-30T16:11:00.000-04:00

Soft Rosters & Pickup Games
Classes are back in session, the fall semester has started (or the fall quarter for some schools), and the schedules, much like the rosters, are the subject of press releases. During the summer a summer league (or pick up game) injury might not be reported for days, even weeks. The same holds for unreported Spring and Summer Semester grades and their resulting cumulative GPAs. With classes back in session the programs have to reveal who will actually be available come Fall Practice. There are still a few freshmen who have not been cleared by the NCAA, but now we are learning exactly who they are.

Cincinnati -- Shaq Thomas has been officially cleared to enroll by the NCAA. Cincinnati is on a quarterly system, fall classes to begin shortly, and Thomas is expected to enroll and attend. Though his relatives were vague as to whether the clearance included playing basketball, the Bearcats have listed him on their 2011-12 roster.

Connecticut -- Slapped with sanctions, the Huskies responded by winning the National Championship. Star guard Kemba Walker tossed his name into the NBA draft and Connecticut Head Coach Jim Calhoun, given his age and health, took a long summer to think about his future as mentor of the Huskies' program. Bouyed by the news that Athletic Director Jeff Hathaway (slated to chair the NCAA Selection Committee for the 2012 tournament) had been persuaded to retire, the veteran coach (25 years in Storrs) decided to return for 2012. Within days of Hathaway's announcement Calhoun secured the commitment of Top 10 center Andre Drummond, and to make a spot on the UConn roster (remember those NCAA sanctions?), persuaded Michael Bradley to relinquish his scholarship, in favor of Drummond. Bradley will secure financial aid to cover his tuition costs.

Georgetown -- The Hoyas' front court took a hit when sophomore Moses Ayegba tore his ACL in a Kenner League game last summer (credit under supervised play for another injury). Freshman Tyler Adams sprained his ankle late in the summer, and his availability is uncertain.

Louisville -- The latest word is that recruit Kevin Ware was declared ineligible earlier this month. Ware, a well regarded and well traveled combo guard had signed an NLI with Tennessee, but asked for his release when Coach Bruce Pearl was fired in March. Ware then "signed" with Central Florida, but the NCAA disallowed that NLI, as they ruled that a recruit could not sign two NLIs in a single year. Ware then chose an already packed Louisville program, forcing the staff revisit their planned scholarship allocation for 2011-12. In the end high returning scorer Kyle Kuric, a senior off guard, was one of three players former scholarship players who were reclassified as "walk ons". Officials have announced that Ware will begin classes in December and should be eligible to play in the Spring Semester. While the scholarship shuffle appears unseemly (see Connecticut above), the Cardinals have a history of having preseason and early season injuries put a serious strain on their player rotation. For Coach Pitino caution rather than avarice may have been the principle motivator.

Marquette -- The Warriors only unanticipated losses over the summer were transfers. Erik Williams left for Sam Houston State, while Reggie Smith will lace them up for UNLV...after sitting a year. Coach Buzz Williams has the squad restocked, and fans are looking forward to seeing what Jamil Wilson can do.

Notre Dame -- incoming freshman forward Eric Katenda was blinded in a pickup game in early July. An examination by doctors determined the optic nerve located behind Katenda's left was severed as a result of contact with another player while Katenda was rebounding a missed field goal attempt. Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey indicated that while the team doctors will explore the possibility of Katenda's playing with protective goggles, the Irish will honor his scholarship irrespective of the outcome -- Katenda by the way, insists he will bounce back from this injury. The Irish join a growing number of squads who have 10 (or fewer) scholarship players available in 2012. The front court rotation right now looks like Tim Abromaitis and Jack Cooley to start (with Scott Martin in a swing spot), leaving Joey Brooks, Jack Broghammer and Tom Knight as the bench. While lack of depth is the more obvious problem, the drop off in talent/production from the starters to the bench, has to be cause for concern as well.

South Florida -- As mentioned in a post last week, JUCO center Andre Jackson from Lee College (TX), signed to some fanfare last fall, is not on Coach Stan Heath's roster. A 7-3 freshman, Jordan Omogbehin, does appear on the latest Bulls roster, signed about the same time as Jackson last fall. Coach Heath also added Martino Brock, a 6-5 junior wing, who transferred in from South Alabama. Brock will sit in 2012 per NCAA transfer rules. Jackson was not a game-changer, but second year JUCO, 6-6 guard Hugh Robertson may find himself playing a bit more on the wing and lane than expected.

St. John's -- After a relatively quiet summer, the Red Storm fall semester was rocked with the news that the NCAA had ruled three members of the (highly ranked) incoming class, Jakarr Sampson, Norvell Pelle and Amir Garrett would be ineligible to play in the fall of 2012. Early press releases from St. John's announced the three would remain on campus and work through the eligibility issues, but reports in the following weeks indicate that Sampson, who returned to Brewster Academy (NH) has reopened his recruitment, while Pelle has enrolled in the Phelps School in Malvern, PA (outside of Philadelphia). Pelle, a very highly regarded #5 has ties (former teammates) to the San Diego State program, and may wind up there next season.

Bobby Bancroft over at National Hoops Report summarized it succintly in his "Best Case/Worst Case post on September 23 -- the three miss the first nine games and have six days to practice/play before Big East Conference play starts (an increasingly unlikely "best case") or Coach Lavin goes into an 18 game conference schedule with a squad of eight scholarship players who return less than 5% of the Red Storm's playing time and scoring from 2011. The Red Storm's two JUCOs, God's Gift Achiuwa and Nurideen Lindsey, along with junior Malik Stith, are the only veteran players with significant post high school experience on the hardwood.

Villanova -- Incoming freshman guard Tyrone Johnson missed the Wildcats' European Tour due to fractured ankle sustained in a pickup game in June of 2011. Johnson had surgery prior to Villanova's departure and is reported to have traveled with the team in Europe. Freshman off guard Darrun Hilliard stepped into the back up role for point guard Maalik Wayns on the tour, and Johnson is on schedule for the start of Fall Practice. His boot is off and Johnson is mobile. Two days after the team returned from a six game tour in France and the Netherlands junior forward and team captain Isaiah Armwood announced he would transfer to another university. The 6-9 wing subsequently enrolled at George Washington of the A-10, and will play for the Colonials after sitting out the mandantory one season.

Expect Johnson to be cleared to practice by October 15. Armwood's departure is more problematic. The Nova Nation will no doubt debate "what was" and "what could have been...", but lack of front court depth is the challenge facing Coach Wright this season. A 9/30 tweet from Coach Wright reports that junior walk-on Dallas Ouano will have surgery for a reported knee injury. No more details at this point.

The Wildcat squad is thin, the loss of Armwood was unexpected, reducing the squad to 10 scholarship players and one healthy walk-on.

According to Glockner...Villanova's Out of Conference Slate

2011-09-27T14:31:00.000-04:00

What's In a Name?
Sport Illustrated columnist Andy Glockner joined a growing list of talkig heads who have come to dispise -- and publicly admonish offenders -- those BCS "powerhouses" who pad their win totals with out of conference cupcakes. Long a problem recognized by the NCAA come tournament selection time (whose 24 wins are "better"?) and fans who have to sit through a 21st century equivalent of Christians vs. Lions for nearly two monthes, the topic "Who Has the Softest Out of Conference Schedule?" has letely become a favorite preseason preview topic. While the Selection Committee uses RPI and SOS metrics to determine how challenged a particular team might have been during the season, Glockner puts together a quick list (sort of a "You know you've scheduled a cupcake if..." test) of names to be avoided when scheduling an opponent. According to Glockner, "...Generally speaking, your team has scheduled a too-easy home win if the opponent's name has:

1) Any type of punctuation mark (ampersand, apostrophe, hyphen, period)
2) Any in-state directional notation
3) Any State that is not actually named for a state
4) Any name of a religion in it
5) Any affiliation with the SWAC, which is 2-213 over the past six seasons vs. teams in BCS conferences...(and the MEAC corollary mentioned later in his article

While Glockner takes Cincinnati and Louisville to task and gives Syracuse and Connecticut (dis)Honorable Mentions, he passes on Villanova. The Nova Nation is notorious for giving the program a hard time about the Wildcats' OOC, but how does Villanova's schedule stand up to the "Glockner Test"?

The 'Cats Score...
Big 5 opponent Saint Joseph's makes the list due to their apostrophe, though truth be told the Hawks should be better this season than their 11-22 record from 2011. Villanova will travel to the Hagan rather than the Palestra, for this game, removing any "location" advantage the 'Cats might have expected. Villanova's first round opponent in the 76 Classic, UC Riverside qualifies under Rule #2 (directional notation, in this case "Riverside"). The balance of the 76 field (no team ranked in the top 25 RPI from 2011, four teams #36-#82 in 2011, three teams ranked #125-#175 in 2011) is a bit underwhelming as well, but given the loss of seniors Fisher, Stokes and Pena, the remaining six opponents in the field are hardly pushovers for this season's squad. But UC Riverside, ranked at #259 in 2011 (RPI) is clearly the lowest seed in the field. Other possible qualifiers include American. Though the Eagles were ranked (a not too shabby) #127 last season, would being named after a country (a people?) qualify under #3? Probably not. Some Nova fans might wonder if Temple is named after a religion (rule #4). I am going to go with a No on that, especially since the Owls are one of the teams favored to win the Atlantic-10 Conference this season and went to the NCAAs in 2011 (and advanced farther in the field than the Wildcats).

Glockner's Score...
With an apostrophe school (that they take on the road) coupled with an assigned "directional" opponent, Villanova's OOC would seem to relatively cupcake-free. Long time Big 5 fans know that the 'Cats have had their way lately with La Salle and Penn, and that the presence of Boston University on the schedule was a nod to since-departed former Assistant Coach Pat Chambers (look for Penn State next season?), but those three, along with Temple and Saint Joseph's, were scheduled for reasons not related to roughage (traditions and Villanova family ties, etc.). Given the Wildcats return 44% of the minutes and 43% of the points scored from 2011, the slate of OOC opponents assembled will most likely yield two -- probably more -- losses going into conference play.

Big Blogger Roundtable -- Q & A on Looking Back, Looking Ahead

2011-09-26T17:38:00.001-04:00

St. John's blogger Pico Dulce will be running a series of question and answers about the state of the Big East basketball programs over the course of this week. He kicked off today by asking "Which (of last season's players) is the Biggest Loss"? The Villanova bloggers were surprisingly unanimous in that Corey Stokes' loss would be the hardest on the team. While the answer for many teams across the conference are self-evident (Connecticut will miss Kemba Walker; Cincinnati will miss Rashad Bishop), two of the more unusual answers came from Pico on St. John's ("everyone"...94% of the last season's points and minutes graduated or transferred) and DePaul's Blue Demon Nation (Shane Larkin -- the point who left school in August and wound up over at Miami a month later).

It's good to see the conference bloggers working on something other than who is in and who is out of the conference going forward.

Transfers and JUCOs -- Eight to Watch

2011-09-26T10:21:00.000-04:00

The Thing Is...
Restocking a roster with JUCOs is a viable option as a quick, short term remedy for a depleted roster. First and second year coaches take that path, especially if, like Coach Mick Cronin, they step into the kind of post Apocolyptic locker room left by Bob Huggins and Andy Kennedy or, like Coach Steve Lavin, they step into a program very heavily weighted with a single class. The good news is the program has game-ready players. The bad news -- the program has the JUSO's services for two years at best (if the JUCO does not sabotage himself). Transfers may provide an extra season of eligibility (leaving early, like Wesley Johnson, is always a problem), but take a roster spot for the year they have to sit per NCAA-imposed "penalty" for deciding to change schools. Some programs, Xavier, keep their pipeline well stocked with redshirts and transfers, the effect of which reduces the swings that can plague their high school recruiting efforts. The Big East has had an uptick in JUCOs in the 2011 off season, only partly the effect of having four new coaches in the 2011 season -- Mick Cronin and Stan Heath just cannot seem to put old habits aside. The conference again saw more outbound transfers than inbounds from 2010 -- the ones who will be eligible in 2011-12. The following eight new faces are not all destined to be impact players (two or three perhaps...), but all should be solid contributors (at least) to their respective programs...

	Who, What, Where...
Player	Pos.	Hgt	Wgt	From	To
G G Achiuwa	PF	6-8	240	Erie CC (NY)	St. John's
Donnavan Kirk	PF	6-9	225	Miami	DePaul
Nurideen Lindsey	PG	6-4	185	Redlands CC	St. John's
Cheikh Mbodji	C	6-9	245	Grayson Cty JC	Cincinnati
Blake Nash	PG	6-0	175	Williston State	USF
Victor Rudd	SF	6-7	205	Arizona State	USF
Dominic Rutledge	PF	6-8	225	Western Texas College	WVU
Jamil Wilson	SF	6-7	220	Oregon	Marquette

Note the 2012-eligible transfers are highlighted in green. A quick check on transfers (but not JUCOs) over at College Hoops Update lists 246 outbound transfers this past spring and summer. Of that cohort, most -- but not all -- who have or will find another D1 program will sit for a season before gaining eligibility. All three listed here (Donnavan Kirk, Victor Rudd and Jamil Wilson) sat for NCAA-mandated two semesters. Donnavan Kirk should be available after DePaul's Autumn Quarter (probably for games in late December and after). The power forward took an injury-related red shirt as a freshman at Miami in 2009-10. He played 13 games for the Hurricanes in 2010-11 before transferring to the Blue Demons. With nearly a year in Coach Purnell's system even before he takes the court, the DePaul staff would have to be very happy if Kirk can develop into a Ray Sykes-type player for them. Assembling Jamil Wilson's statistics was easy, (many...) thanks to Ken Pomeroy. For Kirk and Victor Rudd however, neither logged enough minutes to show up on Pomeroy's radar (he sets a lower boundary of 10% playing time for the team for the season). I used the stats provided by the individual schools to extrapolate many of the efficiency stats. The JUCOs were more problematic, as none of their previous stops contained much by way of detailed data. Unlike prior years, I can do no better than per capita-type stats based on press releases...

		On Offense...
Player	Gms	Mins	%Min	%Shots	PPWS
Donnavan Kirk	13	124	23.1	40.6	0.95
Victor Rudd	15	93	7.0	31.1	0.93
Jamil Wilson	26	444	33.8	17.4	1.00

The percentage of minutes played for Kirk and Rudd is based on the number of games in which they appeared (Rudd logged 7% of the minutes at his position in the 15 games in which he appeared for Arizona State back in the fall of 2010). Of the three, Wilson, who eventually started 14 times in his 26 appearances while at the Eugene, Oregon school. Look for Wilson, a Wisconsin native whose single season in the Pacific Northwest left him a bit homesick, to step into Jimmy Butler's role for Marquette. Butler who was drafted in the first round of the NBA last June, left some very large shoes to fill, but Wilsom offers a slightly better three point shot than Butler who seemed at times to be more a #4 in a #3's body...

	Some Four Factors...
			FTA
Player	%Min	eFG%	FGA
Donnavan Kirk	23.1	40.6	31.3
Victor Rudd	7.0	44.4	27.8
Jamil Wilson	33.8	46.8	24.5

Granted the limited minutes played tend to skew offensive number, nevertheless Victor Rudd showed a willingness to shoot, something an offensively-starved Bulls squad certainly needs, but the 6-7 former Sun Devil will have to convert more efficiently if he is going to log significant minutes in a front court rotation that includes Toarlyn Fitzpatrick and Hugh Robertson.

	...per Game
	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl
Blake Nash	22.3	5.6	4.5	2.3
God's Gift Achiuwa	22.3	11.7	1.3	1.3
Nurideen Lindsey	22.3	5.6	5.1	2.5
Cheikh Mbodj	15.4	7.6	1.1	0.5

All four played an entire JUCO season in 2011. For a program that returns a single rotation player from their 2011 squad, St. John's will have more than enough minutes to give to Nurideen Lindsey and God's Gift Achiuwa. The two were headliners at their respective squads. Achiuwa was in the conversation for a few Division 1 programs, but academics were a problem. Lindsey drew quite a bit of attention as a high schooler in Philadelphia's Overbrook High School, and appeared to be on track as La Salle's latest back court sensation, when academics among other distractions sent him packing for the Dakota badlands, where he toiled a season. Lindsey had choices, and decided the prospect of starting at the point for the Red Storm for the next season or two (or three) might be his best career move. Achiuwa was discovered at a camp for prospecive basketballers in Nigeria coached by Erie CC head coach Alex Nwora. His numbers look very good for a big (projected as a #4, but will probably play the #5 next season), but consider the 6-9 wide body has less than three years of organized play -- one year in the US -- under his belt. Bigs take time Red Storm fans...

Blake Nash might be the latest candidate to try out as Dominiue Jones' replacement. South Florida, held to 0.97 points per possession in conference play last season (#14 in the conference), is desparate for a consistent scorer going into this season. As Jones developed the Bulls' standing in the conference improved, and his early departure at the end of the 2010 season sent the Bulls' stock plummeting again in 2011. Coach Heath really needs an offensive spark plug. Nash's success is key to Heath's survival. Coach Mick Cronin had some success with a twin tower approach to the low post last season, playing Ibrahima Thomas and Yancy Gates in tandem to control the boards and get put backs. Thomas seemed reluctant to embrace his assigned role as banger for the Bearcats, but Cheikh Mbodji, whose JUCO coach suggests is a hybrid forward, should be able to bang down low and also step out when Gates wants to work the low post. While the Bearcats also have two freshmen and a sophomore available for duty at the foward/center spots, Mbodji insures that none of them will be thrown into the deep end too early.

But What About?
6-10 center Andre Jackson who was bound for South Florida last May does not appear on the fall roster. Jackson played six games for Lee College in Texas in 2011 and averaged (in those six games...) just over 16 points per game. No idea where he will surface next. Dominique Rutledge has enrolled at West Virginia, and the 6-8 power forward orignally out of Edison Prep in New Jersey was added in the wake of Danny Jennings' transfer to Long Beach State at the end of the 2011 season. Since high school graduation in 2008, Rutledge has logged a single full season, at Hutchinson County College in Kansas, took a red shirt year at Miami Dade Community College before landing at the intake end of one of Coach Bob Huggins' JUCO pipelines. Rutledge worked out last season with Coach Jason Sautter's Western Texas College program squad while waiting for eligibility to kick in. Sautter, who coached current West Virginia guard Casey Mitchell, filled in Huggins about Rutledge, and the 225 23 year old, classified as a junior, should have two years of eligibility remaining.

Hits and Misses...Last Season's Transfer/JUCOs
Coach Buzz Williams hit another one out of the park with Jae Crowder. The forward stepped into Lazar Hayward's spot in the lineup and despite a few rough patches, he (along with work-in-progress low post players Chris Otule and Davante Gardener) provided a solid front court that helped the Warrors run to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time in the Williams Era. Hugh Robertson started 31 of South Florida's 33 games, logging the second highest number of minutes played on the squad last season. He competed with fellow JUCOs Jawanza Poland and Shedrick Haynes (& four others) for playing time and shots in the USF back court. Robertson's offense, plagued by poor shooting, reduced him to Role Player-level in the Bulls' offense. Poland too was plagued by inconsistent shooting, but unlike Robertson who stapped back, Poland continued to fire away. Coach Heath put Poland, Robertson and two other guards, Anthony Crater and Shaun Noriega in a revolving rotation in an effort to find the hot shooter (or shooters) on any given night. Haynes packed his bags and along with sophomore guard Mike Burwell, became the latest in a growing list of players who left Coach Stan Heath's program with eligibility remaining. Haynes landed at Division 2 power Tarleton College, where he will finish his career in 2012. Ron Anderson logged 55.5% of the playing time in a front court rotation that included Gus Gilchrist and Francis Tarlyn Fitzpatrick and Jarrid Famous. Though his offensive rating declined slightly from his Kansas State days, Anderson's role did grow to a high-end Role Player. Scott Martin averaged 30 minutes per game while appearing (and starting) in 33 of Notre Dame's 34 games last season. The 6-8 forward averaged just under 10 points per game as well, three point shooting his greatest vulnerability. A very versatile player in Coach Kevin Willard's offense, Eniel Polynice, managed to play positions #1 through #4 on offense and defense at some point last season. The fifth year senior had shooting problems all season however, and was generally the fourth option on offense through much of the season. A preseason injury sidelines Rutgers guard Tyree Graham, while fifth year senior Roburt Sallie never made it to the Louisville campus (and into a Cardinal game). Sallie ran afoul of the "no comparable Masters Program" clause in the transfer rule, and was not cleared to play for Coach Pitino's team.

2012 (To) Watch Lists
Rising Seniors to Watch
Rising Juniors to Watch
Rising Sophomores to Watch

Roster Notes -- Coach Massimino Resting After Cancer Surgery

2011-09-17T10:43:00.001-04:00

As reported by New York Post sports writer Lenn Robbins, Coach Rollie Massimino underwent surgery in Philadelphia Friday to remove a chest tumor. Robbins reports the doctors "...are confident they removed all of the cancer...". The 76 year old veteran coach, who guided the Villanova Wildcats to a National Championship in 1985, intends to resume his duties at Norwood College in Florida where he has been the head coach since 2006.

Prayers for a speedy recovery Coach!

Cracked Sidewalks Looks at the Tie That Binds

2011-09-16T11:31:00.001-04:00

Recruits, AAU, Shoe Sponsors & BCS Programs
Cracked Sidewalks contributor dr. blackheart puts numbers to a (anecdotally...) well documented pattern of recruit signings in his latest post, "Autumn Sole-stice". Blackheart's numbers put shoe companies at the nexus between elite AAU programs and BCS college programs that heavily recruit the Top 25 recruits from their ranks. According to Blackheart's numbers, 76% of the Top 25 recruits signed with college teams that shared shoe sponsors with their AAU team. The signing percentage dropped to 50% for recruits ranked #51 - #100 (still pretty strong actually). The pattern, per the post, holds for most of the BCS-level conferences, though other factors (strong coaching reputation, local/regional proximity between the recruit and college program, previous affiliation between a recruiting assistant and an AAU program and a shoe company connection between the recruit's prep school and the college recruiting him) can influence a recruit's final choice.

Blackheart provides a breakdown for nine conferences (all of the BCS conferences plus CUSA, the Horizon & A-10). Worth the time to read.